Me, I’m kind of sick of hearing about J.D. Martinez. I’m sick of hearing about all the free agents. All I want is for the ones who’ll get jobs to get jobs so that we can move on with all our affairs. Seems like Martinez is destined to end up in Boston. Arizona is reportedly trying to stay involved by playing with what present and future money they have, but you can never really tell what information is just out there because Scott Boras wants it to be. It would remain surprising if Martinez doesn’t spend 2018 in a Red Sox uniform. Someone will simply have to give in.

To Martinez’s credit, a lot of us probably do take him for granted. When you talk about free agency, you talk about the future, but Martinez has put together a remarkable past. At least as far as the recent era goes, Martinez is among the original so-called swing-changers. He’s a daily reminder that even the Astros don’t get everything right. And, since 2014, 289 players have batted in the majors at least 1,000 times, and Martinez has ranked fifth in wRC+, between Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt. Martinez isn’t much of a runner, and he isn’t much of a defender, and he turned 30 years old in August. Guy can hit, though. He was perfect for the home-run era, even before the era began.

That’s an introduction about J.D. Martinez. Now let’s use him to talk about somebody else.

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No matter what you think about the Marlins’ rebuild, there’s no getting around the fact that they’re rebuilding. Or, to put it in Derek Jeter’s words, building. The Marlins had what might’ve been baseball’s best outfield, but it’s been completely dismantled, and then some. Outfielder Giancarlo Stanton was traded. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna was traded. Outfielder Christian Yelich was traded. Infielder Dee Gordon was traded, and moved to the outfield. You could say the Marlins have traded four starting outfielders, then, which doesn’t seem like something that’s normally possible, but here we are, and the regular season is going to be rough.

From the Marlins’ perspective, 2018 hardly matters anymore. That is, in terms of major-league success. It’s going to be a bad season, and all they’ll care about is player development, and making more moves. I don’t think the Marlins much care if they win 50 or 60 or 70 games. This being a season like any other, though, we can still analyze the Marlins, for our own fun. I’m sure the team understands the numbers will be ugly. Just how ugly might they be?

This post is interactive. Following the text will be one single poll.

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The big news broke over the weekend, when the Cubs finally pulled Yu Darvish off the free-agent market. Not only is that good short-term news for the Cubs; it’s also bad short-term news for the Brewers and the Cardinals. It was, of course, expected for a while that the Cubs would eventually do something significant, but Darvish is about as significant as it was going to get. The division rivals already had needs, but the signing might’ve provoked a little greater urgency.

You can imagine the jokes when Monday morning brought news the Cardinals were signing Bud Norris. You might not actually need to imagine them — you might have authored some of them! It comes off as an uninspired response. Now, teams don’t actually need to make responses to other transactions. That’s just offseason narrative. And the Cardinals have already made an impact move in trading for Marcell Ozuna. It’s not like the Cardinals have been completely silent. But they haven’t made that Josh Donaldson-level move. They haven’t made that Manny Machado-level move. There’s impatience among the fan base, and the Darvish/Norris juxtaposition isn’t making anything feel any better.

I understand, in that Yu Darvish is analytically sexy. I understand, in that Bud Norris isn’t. Norris has never been a household name, nor has he been a particularly remarkable major-league pitcher. Let me put things differently, though. How would it feel if the Cardinals were instead signing Greg Holland? I have some tables to show you.

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I’m writing this Thursday for publishing Friday, and that’s always a risk when you’re dealing with a player on the market, because you never know when circumstances might change. My topic is Jake Arrieta as a current free agent. He could, at any moment, cease to be a free agent at all. This is the chance I’m taking, but, I have to say, I like my odds. It doesn’t seem like Arrieta’s about to make a decision.

So let’s think about that for a few minutes. Arrieta is one of several Scott Boras guys out there, and he’s one of the higher-profile starters in baseball. It wasn’t long ago at all that it seemed like Arrieta might be the best starter in the sport, and even his most recent ERA was only 3.53. Arrieta’s at that point where he’s right between young-ish and old, so you’d think he’d have some years left in his arm — he’s only about five months older than fellow free agent Yu Darvish. But there hasn’t been very much Arrieta buzz. Not that those of us on the outside always get to know precisely what’s happening on the inside, but there haven’t been many Arrieta rumors. His market still hasn’t fully developed as expected.

Darvish would have something to do with that. Various trade options would have something to do with that. Yet, potentially, there’s also an additional factor. Jake Arrieta is out there, to be signed. Where are the Cubs?

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An interesting thing happened last season in interleague play. The American League won 53% of the games. That’s not the interesting part. The AL has won the majority of interleague games for 14 years in a row. But while that was happening, the NL did take one step forward. The designated hitter is an AL thing, something that AL teams have to actually plan for. NL teams kind of just wing it. And yet NL designated hitters in 2017 out-hit AL designated hitters. Here’s a plot of league DH wOBA, going back to the start of interleague play just over two decades ago.

Over 21 years, NL designated hitters have out-hit AL designated hitters three times. Last year, the gap was 11 points of wOBA. In 2009, the gap was 16 points. And, in 2003, the gap was an incredible 31 points. Weird things happen, but, again, it shouldn’t be surprising that the AL is usually better here. Those teams invest in the DH position. Their DHs are used to the work. The NL just benefited from a little bit of randomness.

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Over at Baseball Prospectus, it’s PECOTA day. Now, that means a whole lot of different things, but one of the things it means is that now BP gets to unveil its projected 2018 standings. Some years ago, I used to get extremely excited about seeing the first standings projections. Then FanGraphs decided to start hosting projections year-round. They’re always right here, and for months, that information has been based on the Steamer projection system. Pretty soon, well in advance of opening day, the ZiPS system will get folded in, to say nothing of remaining transactions. The point being, having projected standings is fun. They serve to keep the mind occupied with thoughts of baseball.

Projected standings aren’t just a toy for the public. I mean, the public ones are, but teams also have their own private projections, that might be better, or that might be basically the same. Team projections drive perceptions, and team projections drive transactions. We feel like we have a pretty good idea of which teams are situated to contend. We also feel like we have a pretty good idea of which teams are far away. Right now, in 2018, based in part on the projections and in part on what just happened a year ago, we have the sense we’re in an era of super-teams, which might be keeping the market slow. Other teams might not feel like they’re close enough to invest.

I love having access to team projections. I use them all the time for analysis and articles. But I feel like I should remind you of the limitations. This is something I could probably write every single year. I’m sure on some level you already know what I’m going to say. Projections are pretty good. They can also end up very, very far off.

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Pitching is weird. Development commonly follows an uneven timeline, with progress being erratic, often unpredictable. One little change can mean the difference between life in Triple-A and 20 million dollars, so if there’s one thing to try to accumulate, it’s youth. Young pitchers come with the benefit of more time. It’s hard to know what they’ll do with it, but at least they have it to begin with. More time to find the adjustments that matter.

The Reds can sometimes be an easy team to forget. Their rebuild, admittedly, remains a work in progress. Yet one thing they’ve certainly done is collect young starting pitchers, which gives them that volatility and upside, even beyond the already volatile Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani. Maybe this year will be the year for Cody Reed. Maybe it’ll be the year for Amir Garrett, or Robert Stephenson. Not to leave out Sal Romano. Not to leave out Brandon Finnegan, or Tyler Mahle. Not to leave out all the other candidates. With a few new pitches, or with a few mechanical tweaks, the Reds could suddenly have something special on their hands.

What the Reds have desperately needed to do is develop quality pitching. There’s plenty more development remaining to be achieved. Among the whole assortment, however, there’s one shining light. There’s not really anything left for Luis Castillo to do. He’s an electrifying starter who already made his final adjustment on the fly.

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Here’s the thing: You might well be sick of this. Actually, no, here’s the thing: Even if you are sick of this, which you might be, baseball writers are in the writing business, and when baseball things happen, baseball writers write about them. When baseball things *don’t* happen, baseball writers still need to write, because that’s the job. So you’ve been seeing a lot about the slow pace of free agency, and you’ve been thinking more than you’d like to about trends in team payrolls. Throw this onto the pile. I’ve got even more analysis.

As Craig Edwards wrote a few days ago, league-wide spending could go down in 2018, compared to 2017. That’s not something that frequently happens. Within that post, Craig inserted a plot, showing how all 30 teams have moved. Here, I’d like to add some further context, courtesy of Cot’s Contracts. I’m going to look at every team, going back to the year 2000.

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The Mets signed Todd Frazier yesterday, for two years and $17 million. One interpretation is that this is evidence of how the current free-agent market has cratered. Frazier, over the past three years, has been worth 10 WAR, and he just posted by far his best-ever walk rate. Another interpretation is that this is evidence of how badly Frazier wanted to remain in New York. He’s already got enough money to live on, and this way he’s still close to home, with a starting job on a potentially competitive team. You might say the Mets are kind of caught in the middle, but that’s not as bad a position as it sounds. Teams in the middle can over-achieve. The Mets are in the right place to invest.

The Frazier acquisition does get in the way of Wilmer Flores‘ playing time. Flores has been a fairly good hitter lately, and he’s still just 26. Perhaps this is only a lateral move, then, but really, Flores can still play; now he’s been turned into quality depth. He’s a better hitter than Jose Reyes, and he can help out at first should Adrian Gonzalez or Dominic Smith under-perform. The Mets now are better and deeper, and, compared to Flores, Frazier’s the superior defender.

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