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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 9/14/18

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September 14, 2018
12:16

Kiley McDaniel: Hello, I’m coming to you people on Friday since I was on the road Wednesday. Let’s get to your questions
12:16

I hate avocados: When will we see rankings updates next?
12:17

Kiley McDaniel: I’m guessing Monday? We have one more update of about 15 players to shuffle around before we head into the offseason. We’ll probably lock all those in this weekend as far as where they go exactly, but the list is done
12:19

Arms: Long term who makes the better MLB Pitcher? Shane Bieber or Chris Paddack? Or will both be exceptional?
12:19

Kiley McDaniel: Similar kinds of guys, but Bieber is already there and performing and hasn’t had a TJ, so I’ll take him, though Paddack has a little more ceiling
12:19

Matt: are you buying the Luis patino hype? I believe he should be considered a top 100 prospect, plus velo, athletic, throws strikes, 3-4 usable pitches

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FanGraphs Audio Presents: Untitled McDongenhagen Project

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September 11, 2018

Introduction to the McDongenhagen Project
This represents the first episode of a weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The new show, which will be available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, doesn’t have a name yet, but reader input is invited. The show won’t be all prospect stuff, but there will be plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men. Below are some timestamps to make listening and navigation easier.

2:13 – What Eric’s been up to feat. reggaeton horn.
3:49 – What Kiley’s been up to feat. self-promotion.
6:31 – TOPIC ONE: September call-ups that will impact the NL races.
7:24 – Arizona Diamondbacks, including a big picture discussion.
13:15 – Atlanta Braves, including a guy you didn’t think we’d talk about.
19:30 – St. Louis Cardinals, including lots of Harrison Bader talk.
22:31 – Chicago Cubs, briefly.
22:58 – Milwaukee Brewers, including Robin Hood talk.
24:26 – Colorado Rockies, eternally confusing, including eye-level science.
28:43 – Los Angeles Dodgers, including Joe Arpaio talk.
29:46 – Philadelphia Phillies, including Scott Kingery symposium.
36:05 – TOPIC TWO: Should we change how we evaluate pitching prospects?
41:45 – Kiley tries to shoehorn more Nassim Taleb into conversation.
46:28 – Objectively measuring command: ¯\_(ｯ)_/¯.
50:02 – Eric compares these challenges to the NFL combine.
52:23 – TOPIC THREE: 2019 MLB Draft overview.
1:01:50 – Eric reveals his West Coast draft fascination.
1:03:06 – Kiley brings this to a merciful end.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 4 min play time.)

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 9/5/18

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September 5, 2018
12:18

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay! Was going back and forth with offers/counters on a house, so that took slight precedent over this baseball chat
12:19

Kiley McDaniel: So, for those that haven’t seen it yet, I posted something today breaking down Dylan Cease (CHW), Matt Manning (DET) and Brendan McKay (TB) and which of those three types of players is normally underrated by list season
12:19

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/should-we-adjust-how-we-evaluate-pitch…
12:19

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions
12:19

squeeze bunt: What do you think is the best predictor of a pitcher taking a step forward with command?  Do you think there is a correlation between height/length and command?
12:21

Kiley McDaniel: Athleticism is the best single direct comp for command we have, but it’s usually a combination of factors. I’d tend to bet on longer-limbed elite athletes that are growing into their frame in the mid-20’s to improve, particularly if they aren’t a high 90’s type that’s always trying to throw it through the backstop

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Should We Adjust How We Evaluate Pitching Prospects?

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September 5, 2018

Evaluating pitchers is a real challenge. A combination of experience and knowledge can help one to better understand how variables like velocity, spin, and pitch mix translate to the majors. Even with that information, though, the influence of other factors — like injury risk, like a pitcher’s likelihood of responding to mechanical or mental adjustments — creates a great deal of uncertainty.

Nor is this a challenge that faces only prospect analysts like myself and Eric Longenhagen: even front-office execs who have the benefit of substantial resources — in the form both of data and personnel — have trouble reliably projecting outcomes for otherwise similarly talented young arms.

In my role as a talent evaluator both with FanGraphs and with a few major-league clubs, the question of how best to assess pitchers is obviously one to which I’ve returned with some frequency. In my recent efforts to get some final looks at certain top pitching prospects, however, I began to rethink how Eric Longenhagen and I should approach rankings this offseason. Three prospects, in particular, help to illustrate my concerns.

Tigers righty Matt Manning was the ninth overall pick in 2016, is an athletic 20-year-old who stands 6-foot-6, and was promoted to Double-A last week. In addition to that, he sat 94-96 and hit 98 mph in my look, mixing in a spike curveball that flashed 65 on the 20-80 scale. The positives here are numerous, and very few other minor leaguers could match even a few of these qualities.

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 8/29/18

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August 29, 2018
12:09

Kiley McDaniel: Coming to you live from my desk while Scout chews on her dinosaur toy in the next room, it’s chat time
12:10

Kiley McDaniel: I went to a bunch of games in the last week, cleaning up some needed looks on local prospects.
12:10

Kiley McDaniel: Only non Florida State League game was Jacksonville (AA Marlins) and Birmingham (AA White Sox) where I was going for Dylan Cease but got a bunch of other guys as well
12:13

Kiley McDaniel: FSL looks included affiliates of MIN (Royce, Kirilloff, Brusdar, Blankenhorn), ATL (Contreras, Waters, Ynoa, Wentz, Davidson),  NYY (Florial, Deivi Garcia, D. Castillo, Gilliam), DET (Fulmer rehab, Manning, Clemens, Castro),  CIN (Fairchild, Isabel), PHI (Llovera, Moniak, Gamboa, Brito, Falter), TBR (McKay, Brujan, Lowe, Fraley, Padlo, Gray, Palacios)
12:14

Kiley McDaniel: Anyway that took longer than I expected to flip thru my notes and compile, but those are the guys I saw recently if any of them or their teammates are of special interest
12:14

Kiley McDaniel: And there’s a post going up shortly of the prospect just added to the board

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 8/22/18

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August 22, 2018
12:10

Kiley McDaniel: Hello reader, puppy took a long detour on the walk and I’m a pushover so here I am at 12:10. Lets see what you’ve got for me today.
12:11

Tommy N.: Did you see Ryan Weathers start yesterday? Looks like he’s pretty polished already is he more polished than Gore coming out of high school?
12:12

Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t see the start, but the level of polish is definitely comparable. Gore flashes 60’s with a better delivery and Weathers is more 55’s with no projection, short stride. Not like hugely different, but HS pitchers are risky and there’s lots of teenagers with big stuff, so these sorta small differences become important
12:12

Garrett: Anthopoulos just said he believes the Braves internal talent is better than what’s out on the market? Do you believe it’s true or is this just leverage.
12:14

Kiley McDaniel: Well in the sense that they didn’t need to go acquire a bunch of high octane arms bc they have Fried, Gohara, Wilson, Toussaint, Allard, Wright, etc. all hanging around is true. They still picked up a few veteran arms, but if fans think they should’ve cashed in two of those guys for Archer when there’s a chance one of those guys just is Archer going forward (but younger and way cheaper) is probably correct.
12:14

Shawn: Between Loaisiga and Domingo German – Who has the better chance to start and who would be the better RP? Overall, who has more FV?

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The Next Prospects Who Could Pull a Glasnow

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August 15, 2018

Among the biggest changes in on-field strategy this year is the Rays’ use of an “opener,” or a starting pitcher who isn’t a traditional starter in style and is expected to throw only an inning or two. While certainly notable, the role itself isn’t my interest here. Rather, I’d like to consider how Tampa Bay has cobbled together a staff from Blake Snell and a cast of misfit toys.

From talking to sources in and around the Rays, the use of an “opener” wasn’t a purposeful strategic shift on the organization’s part, but rather an attempt by the club to deploy the talent present on the roster in the most effective way possible. Snell is the only pitcher who won’t get an opener in front of him, while the rest varies game-to-game based on matchups and other factors. Much like the best coach in the NFL, the Rays are using a player’s strengths and building a scheme around it rather than building a roster around a scheme.

Consider this characterization of Bill Belichick’s coaching philosophy by Greg Bedard of SI in the context of Tampa Bay and their pitching strategy:

On both sides of the ball, the scheme is multiple and adaptable both to personnel and to specific opponents. The Patriots are never a team that just ‘does what it does’ on either side of the ball. There must be a level of unpredictability.

Recently acquired former top prospect Tyler Glasnow has been notably better in his 12 innings with the Rays, but the role the right-hander typically fills (the longest outing on his pitching day, usually after the opener) is a one that could create a competitive advantage for the Rays in player procurement.

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 8/15/18

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August 15, 2018
12:06

tb.25: 12:05?! You’re turning into those radio shows that start 5 minutes late to get listeners tuning in at the top of the hour to listen to commercials
12:06

Kiley McDaniel: You’ve figured us out
12:07

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is wandering around but I am here to chat with you people. Lets see what you’ve got for me today
12:08

D Money: Rank these guys – Madrigal, India, Kelenic & Swaggerty
12:08

Kiley McDaniel: Gotta have one of these every week. All of our rankings are sortable and available for your perusal here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx
12:09

Keefths: What do you make of what Nolan Gorman has done thus far?
Is the boy legit ?

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 8/8/18

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August 8, 2018
12:11

Kiley McDaniel: Hello! I’m now stationed home for a nice stretch after seeing East Coast Pro (2019/2020 draft class high school showcase in Hoover, AL) and Eric is currently taking the tail end of HS showcase season on at Area Codes in Long Beach, then the PG Game in San Diego.
12:12

Kiley McDaniel: Draft stuff takes a break after the Cape wraps up so the chillins can go back to school, then some HS stuff fires back up in october for a few events before they basically disappear until Late Jan/early Feb
12:13

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be taking in some FSL, including seeing Brusdar tomorrow after being rained out twice already.
12:14

Kiley McDaniel: If you want to know where we rank any notable figure in non MLB baseball, we have a fresh update of THE BOARD right here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx
12:15

Kiley McDaniel: Lastly for the intro, I’m working on some stuff related to what should change about baseball–so throw some stuff at me here. I’m thinking changing the draft, int’l signings, marketing the players, salary cap/floor vs. luxury tax, blackouts on MLB.tv, pace of play, all the stuff that bothers you lemme hear it
12:15

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 7/25/18

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July 25, 2018
12:28

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay, just wrapping up a call. We’ll be rolling out the updated prospect lists in the coming days, leading up to the deadline.
12:29

Kiley McDaniel: ICYMI I did the Trade Value series last week and a think piece on trade value and which teams have the best trade ammunition https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-teams-could-even-trade-for-lindo…
12:29

Jeb: What is Travis Swaggerty’s upside?
12:30

Kiley McDaniel: 50 hit, 60 power, 50 D in CF. Could be a 3-4 win guy
12:30

Guest: Think about Jalen Beeks Rays just acquired
12:30

Kiley McDaniel: Just tweeted out some thoughts on that deal, TB’s competitive situation and Beeks specifically in  a thread here

 

Kiley McDaniel
@kileymcd

 

New Rays LHP Jalen Beeks has taken a unique path. He was a pretty generic smaller lefty at Arkansas w/fringe to ave… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
25 Jul 2018

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