Kiley McDaniel Chat – 8/29/18

12:09

Kiley McDaniel: Coming to you live from my desk while Scout chews on her dinosaur toy in the next room, it’s chat time

12:10

Kiley McDaniel: I went to a bunch of games in the last week, cleaning up some needed looks on local prospects.

12:10

Kiley McDaniel: Only non Florida State League game was Jacksonville (AA Marlins) and Birmingham (AA White Sox) where I was going for Dylan Cease but got a bunch of other guys as well

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: FSL looks included affiliates of MIN (Royce, Kirilloff, Brusdar, Blankenhorn), ATL (Contreras, Waters, Ynoa, Wentz, Davidson),  NYY (Florial, Deivi Garcia, D. Castillo, Gilliam), DET (Fulmer rehab, Manning, Clemens, Castro),  CIN (Fairchild, Isabel), PHI (Llovera, Moniak, Gamboa, Brito, Falter), TBR (McKay, Brujan, Lowe, Fraley, Padlo, Gray, Palacios)

12:14

Kiley McDaniel: Anyway that took longer than I expected to flip thru my notes and compile, but those are the guys I saw recently if any of them or their teammates are of special interest

12:14

Kiley McDaniel: And there’s a post going up shortly of the prospect just added to the board

12:14

Zay: Moises Gomez has been fantastic in A ball for a 20 year old. Is it wrong to say he can become an above average regular in RF?

12:15

Kiley McDaniel: There’s one of the players added to the board. There’s a shot, one scout said he may have 70 raw power down the road and he performed well as a 19 year old in Low-A.

12:15

Kiley McDaniel: (I’ve also been working on a bunch of behind the scenes stuff the last week or two, which you’ll see soon enough)

12:15

Greg: What’d you think of Joey Wentz? Just a lost season for him?

12:16

Kiley McDaniel: A couple oblique injuries, performance and stuff have been up and down. Mostly, yeah. But he looks healthy and his last outing (first off the DL) was a good starting point to build from

12:16

Tommy N.: Ryan Weathers who is a short strider but has high spin rate how does this affect his effective velocity do they essentially cancel each other out?

12:17

Kiley McDaniel: Well spin rate won’t affect effective velocity, those are separate. In terms of overall effectiveness, often those two will effectively cancel each other out but I’ll have to see the data to say for sure.

12:18

squeeze bunt: Is a pitchers short stride something a team would try to change?  Is there more injury risk if they do make that type of change?

12:18

Kiley McDaniel: Worth a shot, but I wouldn’t invest millions in a pitcher you intend to fundamentally change the delivery of. Taylor Jungmann is an example of a guy where the arm action was changed and it was neutral results at best.

12:19

Matt: We shouldn’t worry about Will Smith’s start to AAA right?

12:19

Kiley McDaniel: 70 bad PA after he crushed Double-A? No.

12:19

squeeze bunt: when is the draft board going to be updated?  Do you know yet if there will be any substantial changes following the summer?

12:20

Kiley McDaniel: In the next week or so, before the org lists come out. We have some changes to make, but not enormous in most cases.

12:20

sportz: you got a chance to watch Manning..how much is left in the projection tank….

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: Projection-wise, probably not much because he’s mid-90’s with a plus curveball, so the stuff isn’t the issue. The CH was average just once or twice, the command is still below and he’s working up in the zone with the fastball where that is problematic

12:22

Kiley McDaniel: The elements are there to start and a big athlete with stuff if the type you’d like to bet on. I’d try to simplify the delivery more and see if that helps

12:24

Kiley McDaniel: hold on a scout saw my tweet about chatting and called me to chat lemme explain to him how this works

12:25

Dan Gleeballs: Is ibandel Isabel just old for his level, or does he have legit power?

12:26

Kiley McDaniel: 80 raw power, kinda stiff, might just be Adam Brett Walker, might be a low end big leaguer

12:27

Kiley McDaniel: The board update post just went up

12:33

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Been hearing the name Moises Gomez a lot as a breakout candidate this week. Check the board, he’s already there as a 40 with an up arrow. Any idea how he’s tapped into his power without sacrificing the hit tool?

12:33

Kiley McDaniel: As a little more detail there, he is strong and has a pretty compact swing, so the big picture ability is there to keep doing this at some level

12:34

Kyle: Does Vidal Brujan have a .315 BA, 15 HR season in his MLB future?

12:35

Kiley McDaniel: I would normally say there isn’t that much power, but given the bat control and balls/bats being better and Albies and co. pulling it off and us hyping Madrigal as possibly doing it…I can’t rule that out. Brujan does swing at too many pitches, even more than Madrigal/Albies.

12:36

pez: kelly or knizner for cards future backstop

12:36

Kiley McDaniel: closer than many would think, i may lean knizner

12:36

Jake: What’s your take on Tristen Lutz’s season? Early struggles attributable to age/weather?

12:38

Kiley McDaniel: If you start May 10th, he’s been 10% BB, 26% K, .265/.342/.459, 126 wRC+ as a 19 year old in Low-A. That’s at or above expectations once you drop the first month.

12:38

Kiley McDaniel: And we were definitely the highest on him before the season

12:38

Mike: After your recent viewing of Matt Manning, where are you on him as a prospect at this point? Based on where he was coming into the season, would you say he’s progressed significantly? Or has his stuff just overpowered lower level hitters this year and masked his issues?

12:39

Kiley McDaniel: He’s made some real progress with command/consistency since it wasn’t that long ago he had the yips in the complex league. He’s still generally the same sort of pitcher he was when he was drafted. The Glasnow comp isn’t that far off. It could take a little while for it all to click

12:40

Jared: With your former privity to evaluation metrics used privately by Major league clubs, could you give an example of a player whose public perception (based on public data) differs greatly from the metrics used by clubs? Would imagine the biggest divergences would come from defense

12:41

Kiley McDaniel: Not as much as you’d think. Exit velos from the low levels/complexes can tell you a lot about a young hitter, with Acuna the example I cite a lot here. Also the spin rate/angles/extension stuff allows you to sort through hundreds of generic arms really quickly to find the few that might actually be good.

12:42

Kyle: Who is Eric Pardinho? Been tracking his statline (damn) but know nothing else about him

12:43

Kiley McDaniel: Oh he’s not a short season mystery man, he’s the best amateur pitcher out of Brazil since Luiz Gohara. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-22-prospects-toronto-blue-jays/ and https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=&type=&pos=&team=tor for more

12:44

Peanuts Wilson: Would you rather have the top 20 prospects in your system or the next 80?

12:44

Kiley McDaniel: top 20 by a lot. Probably even 10 over next 90

12:44

Josh: What were your impressions after seeing Cease?

12:46

Kiley McDaniel: For me, less of a chance to start than Manning. Fastball has hop and sneaky velo given his delivery tempo and he holds it well, has trouble throwing the breaker for strikes consistently and it’s best as a chase pitch. CH is really inconsistent. much more control than command, which will cause problems at higher levels. Needs more consistency with his finish and he’s a smaller guy with a TJ in the rear view. Seems ideally suited to a Rays 2nd pitcher role where he can go two times through the order and not hold back. Don’t think it’s a 180 IP type guy.

12:48

Pirates: Should we feel shame about the Chris Archer deal?

12:48

Kiley McDaniel: I’m more confused by the big picture strategy/timing

12:50

Kiley McDaniel: a 0.4% chance to make the playoffs this year and they’re cashing in chips that they were collecting just this offseason for Cole/McCutchen…and the types of chips they’d never discuss for almost a decade. Why now?

12:50

54: Kiley if a plague suddenly destroyed the world’s coffee crop would any industry suffer more than journalism? (Not including the coffee industry and all industries directly coffee related)

12:50

Kiley McDaniel: Weird quirk: I don’t drink coffee

12:50

Jason: What are your thoughts on Drew Waters ?  Can he be a true 5 tool talent ?

12:51

Kiley McDaniel: More 55 runner for me and fringy in CF, think he moves to RF, but the arm is already 60 and the raw power probably will be 60, so doesn’t really change the projection much. And Inciarte/Acuna/Pache were always going to be better defenders.

12:52

Kiley McDaniel: And this was known to be a very possible outcome when he was an amateur. He hasn’t really filled out physically yet

12:52

Matt: Disappointed in the lack of a call up for Alonso?

12:55

Kiley McDaniel: Mentioned it on twitter, but yes. Alonso is a husky R/R 1B that’s gonna be 24 this winter. This is exactly the type of player where that 7th year of control is almost worthless. What 31 year old DH has a robust market right now? Big step forward this year in terms of prospect standing and I’d be way more interested in knowing what I have for next year with him and Dom Smith than playing Austin Jackson and Jay Bruce. I assume ownership has something to do with these inexplicable decisions given the limp defenses I’ve heard so far.

12:55

J: Was William Contreras behind the dish when you saw him? What’s his outlook behind the plate, the kid can hit

12:56

Kiley McDaniel: Average to above defender, 60 arm, has changed his swing up and it seems to work for him. Think the power will come later.

12:56

John: Is there anyway to scout game calling for catchers at the MLB level, let alone the MiLB level?

12:57

Kiley McDaniel: Similar to command, you have to know intent and also who made the decision, which seems kinda impossible to do on a large scale

12:57

LAD: If LeBron James asked you to mold him into a baseball player what position would you push him towards based on build, athleticism, arm length etc.  Thinking about total WAR and not quickest path.

12:57

Kiley McDaniel: RF, just follow the Stanton/Judge development playbook

12:58

Matt: Do reports of a player’s makeup affect FV at all? Thinking in terms of whether makeup affects the likelihood of a particular player will take advantage of physical tools. Makeup is obviously highly subjective and wondering whether it’s considered in FanGraphs rankings/evaluations at all.

12:59

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, sometimes heavily for some players. We try to stay away from “this guy has makeup concerns” in a vague sense and either tell you what we can tell you, or if it’s not something that can be mentioned for whatever reason, factor it in quietly (that doesn’t happen much).

1:00

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Does Moniak look at all like a future big leaguer?

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: big leaguer, sure. The tools haven’t really progressed, have regressed for some. He’s made progress at the plate and is hitting it harder, but it’s more useful role player than standout right now.

1:00

Matt: tell me what you saw out of my boy Brusdar

1:01

Kiley McDaniel: Well, in official communication, his correct first name is BRUSDAR!

1:02

Kiley McDaniel: 95-98 t99, plus slider, CH flashed 55 but was too hard and was below a lot of the time. Command could end up at 50, dont love the short stride but it’s Alex Reyes level easy arm speed. I’d take him over Cease and him and Manning would be close.

1:02

Ryan: I cannot find the prospects board. I must be overlooking it somewhere. Do you have a link?

1:03

Kiley McDaniel: under the LEADERS on the top nav bar

1:03

Gavin: Reports of Triston McKenzie throwing 94-97 recently – if that holds, how much does it impact his overall outlook?

1:03

Kiley McDaniel: Just talked to a scout that saw him 92-94 t96, saw a mid rotation type. Stuff has progressed and he’s still skinny as hell, so that’s a nice development

1:04

Daniel: Why does the board have Bobby Witt with 60 grade speed when he ran a 6.4 at PG National?

1:04

Kiley McDaniel: Those are generally juiced by 2-3 tenths across the board

1:05

Nick: Which minor leaguer has improved his stock most this season?

1:05

Kiley McDaniel: Wander Franco went from about 120 to the top 20. Juan Soto from 50 to like 1 or 2 if he was still eligible.

1:06

Brian: What separates Vientos from Kelenic? Vientos is younger and has put up better numbers but is a 45 to Kelenic’s 50. Is it all about future defensive value?

1:07

Kiley McDaniel: And track record. Vientos hasn’t really performed until this year. Kelenic has performed for three summers now. Kelenic also has makeup that’s seen as a separator. He’s basically never failed before.

1:07

JT: Why is it that some guys on the board have a 10-15 point jump from PV to FV on their CB or CH while other guys only have a 5 point jump. Like what is it you see that makes you say this guys CH is gonna make a huge jump while this guys isn’t?

1:08

Kiley McDaniel: Future grade is generally the best version of the pitch they show a couple times a game, present is the average of what the pitch is throughout the game. a 40/50 pitch means he’ll throw some 50’s but it’s mostly in the dirt or misthrown, etc.

1:08

Tommy N.: High spin rate doesn’t affect perceived velocity? Doesn’t it make the ball look faster especially up in the zone?

1:10

Kiley McDaniel: It leads to more swing and miss because of movement (when the spin is efficient enough to create movement). I guess you could index swing and miss by velocity when there’s generic movement and create “perceived spin rate velo bump” but that’s kinda unnecessary when you could just grade the pitch overall

1:10

joe: Does Isaac Parades have the power to stay at 3B or would a move to 2B suit him better. I know he’s only 19 but I’ve read there’s not much projection left for him.

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: It could be a Jhonny Peralta type where he doesn’t look the part but makes it work. Normally this ends up at 2B or 3B. Mostly depends on the tolerance for the FO/coaching staff and other defensive options. With Iglesias, it’s obviously not SS>

1:11

Jim Leyland Palmer: Is Kody Clemens a big league regular?

1:11

Kiley McDaniel: More platoon guy for me, but there’s a chance

1:12

Alex: In a chat hosted by a different FanGraphs contributor a few weeks ago, someone referred to you as “Girl Name Mc Guy Name”. Thoughts?

1:12

Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t heard that one before but sounds like something I’d think of

1:12

John: Touki a 60+ now? I know he’s a 50 on THE BOARD, but seems low at this point!

1:13

Kiley McDaniel: Typically, when a prospect comes up and shows the tools we have them graded as having, they wouldn’t get upgraded until the performance shows that it’s more than the sum of the parts…in which case they wouldn’t have eligibility anymore.

1:13

regular: Has anyone ever calculated the threshold where saving service time is actually detrimental.. ie Alonso – if a player develops well now you’re stuck with extending a fan favorite at 31 and paying for his decline whereas if he was promoted more aggressively he’d be FA at a more reasonable age.

1:14

Kiley McDaniel: That would kinda be impossible to measure. Obviously some teams would consistently do the wrong thing there

1:14

Bun B: what  minor league right handers sit above the Cease and then BRUSDAR!/Manning tier? Any surprise names like a Tyler Ivey?

1:15

Kiley McDaniel: It sounds like Eric and I will be sliding a current 45+ past those guys in the upcoming small update.

1:15

Eric: On THE BOARD, there are two current tabs for Value and Scouting. It would be cool if there was a 3rd tabs for season stats, so we could easily compare how well the prospects on the board are doing. Who’s having good/bad seasons, etc.

1:15

Kiley McDaniel: We talked about just this recently. Like almost exactly how you’re describing it

1:15

Dominic : I know the BOARD says Riley Greene > Bobby Witt Jr. so can you explain why a lot of people think Witt Jr. is a 1-1 candidate?

1:16

Kiley McDaniel: Famous, big tools, plays SS, has a good name, performed well in past summers when no one was paying close attention to him

1:16

HeyNow: But Vientos is killing it when adjusting for age.  Seems to one guy who’s being overlooked a little.

1:16

Kiley McDaniel: He’s in the top 200 prospects in baseball and hasn’t gotten to Low-A yet. No, he isn’t.

1:17

Patty O’Furniture: Is Bryse Wilson a Hall of Famer?  The five innings I saw say YES

1:17

Kiley McDaniel: This is the kind of reasoned analysis I’m looking for

1:17

Greg: What

1:17

Kiley McDaniel: You heard me. Also I hope this is Cousin Greg bc I’m a big fan.

1:18

John Wick: JOHN. WICK.

1:18

Kiley McDaniel: oh, we’re here already

1:18

Bob Ross: BOB. ROSS.

1:18

Uwe Blab: UWE. BLAB.

1:18

Kiley McDaniel: Thanks for coming, stay tuned for mind blowing projects that we’re currently working on, coming to you over the next month or two.

We hoped you liked reading Kiley McDaniel Chat – 8/29/18 by Kiley McDaniel!

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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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defenders50
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defenders50

My money is on the 45+ being Bryse Wilson. Longshot odds on Santillan or Oviedo..

realitypolice
Member
realitypolice

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