| 12:09 |
: Kiley is ready to chat now
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| 12:09 |
Hey Kiley, |
| 12:09 |
: Hey!
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| 12:11 |
Which list did Pompey not make it onto? Is he less than a 50FV? |
| 12:12 |
: Noticed that a few guys for that rookie list slipped through my filters, like Pompey (50) and Alex Gonzalez (50). I’ll go back in and add them after the chat.
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| 12:13 |
Would Kopech have made your updated list of the non 200 if he wasnt suspended? |
Since I made you wait a little longer than I intended for a mid-season/trade-deadline prospect rankings update, I decided to expand upon the form with four lists instead of just one. Each of these lists uses tiers like my other lists, but each list is also ordered by preference within each tier. I’ve also started using Present Value (PV) in addition to the normal Future Value (FV) as a better way to show how close a prospect is to reaching his ceiling, or being ready for a call-up. See this article for more about FV and the 20-80 scouting scale in general.
The first list is the standard top-prospect list with the standard 130 at-bat/50 innings pitched qualifications, so prospects in the big leagues are eligible for the list. That said, a few players like Kyle Schwarber and Daniel Norris are about a week from losing their prospect eligibility and are in the big leagues, so I moved them to another of the lists below in anticipation.
The second list features players who were eligible for the Top 200 Prospect List last year that didn’t make it, but would do so comfortably now. Think of this as the minor-league version of “pop-up guys” that you’ll hear referred to more often in the draft: players that improved greatly in a short period of time. The standard for being listed is 50 FV, which was the 80th through 143rd prospects on the preseason list, but, for reasons I’ll explain below, should be even higher this year.
| 12:14 |
: Alrighty I’m back home after 3 weeks of travel and now I can buckle down on some fresh rankings that will be coming your way soon
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| 12:15 |
Thoughts on Alex Reyes? What do you think his ceiling is? |
| 12:16 |
: Saw him right before the DL stint and put up video and a report here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
There’s frontline upside if he can harness everything. |
| 12:18 |
With Anthony Alford starting to get a tone of attention in the Jays system with his HighA performance thus far this year, has it overshadowed what former first rounder D.J Davis has done in A ball? Eerily similar #’s, albeit one level lower. Does D.J Davis still have 5 tool potential/high upside? Or is Anthony Alford now the far and away better prospect? |
| 12:20 |
: I had Alford 9th in the system entering the season and Davis 30th: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…
Alford is younger, performing better, at a higher level and is coming off a multi-year layoff from playing football. Davis’ improvement is encouraging, but Alford was a better than Davis when he was playing football and the gap is even wider now. He’ll be a top 100 prospect. |
| 12:20 |
Colin Rea makes his big league debut tonight. What do you expect from him short and long term? |
This breakdown starts with the Scott Kazmir deal on July 23, but there weren’t any trades from the 16th to the 23rd, so this covers the whole second half of the month, trade-wise, up until now. I count 25 total trades with prospects involved in that span that add together to have 58 prospects on the move. Check out the preseason Top 200 List for more details, but I’ve added the range that each Future Value (FV) group fell in last year’s Top 200 to give you an idea of where they will fall in this winter’s list. Also see the preseason team-specific lists to see where the lower-rated prospects may fall within their new organization.
40 FV is the lowest grade that shows up on these numbered team lists, with 35+ and 35 FV prospects mentioned in the “Others of Note” section, so I’ll give blurbs for the 40 FV or better prospects here. I’ve also linked to the post-trade prospect breakdown for the trades I was able to analyze individually, so click there for more information. Alternately, click on the player’s name to see his player page with all his prior articles listed if I didn’t write up his trade.
I opted to not numerically rank these players now, but I will once I’ve made the dozens and dozens of calls necessary this fall and winter to have that level of precision with this many players. Look for the individual team lists to start rolling out in the next month, with the 2016 Top 200 list coming in early 2016. Lastly, the players are not ranked within their tiers, so these aren’t clues for where they will fall on the Top 200.
| 12:09 |
: Running out to the car to get the charger for my laptop. Will answer questions alongside my Chipotle bowl in moments.
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| 12:17 |
: I’m here!
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| 12:17 |
Can Javier Baez stick at short? |
| 12:19 |
: I don’t think so, but some people think maybe. I think at best it’ll be like Corey Seager where it’s fringy and you put up with it for a few years if he hits, then eventually move him before he makes the big money.
I mentioned the whispers about Baez’s makeup when I was lower on him than the other publications two years ago and it seems like those whispers are getting louder. In general, iffy makeup guys that have trouble with their bread and butter (hitting for Baez) can’t be asked to also do another thing slightly out of their comfort zone, skills-wise (play shortstop). I’d hope for second, settle for third and hope it isn’t right field. |
| 12:19 |
Oh, look it’s Kiley. |
| 12:19 |
: It is.
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In case you missed it, I’ve broken down the prospects in the Johnny Cueto (Reds to Royals) trade, Scott Kazmir (A’s to Astros) trade, Tyler Clippard (A’s to Mets) deal, the Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies to Blue Jays) trade and in one post yesterday covered the prospects in the deals of Ben Zobrist (A’s to Royals), Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies to Nationals), David DeJesus (Rays to Angels), and David Murphy (Indians to Angels) trades. This morning I wrote up the deal sending Cole Hamels from the Phillies to the Rangers. Here’s the breakdown of the 3-for-1 David Price deal sending him to Toronto, and I bet I’ll write a few more of these.
Everyone is going to compare this trade to the Johnny Cueto deal since it’s one rental MLB ace for three minor-league lefties. I gave Finnegan, Reed and Lamb 55, 50 and 40 FV grades, respectively — with all of them pretty close to the big leagues — while the combination Norris, Labourt and Boyd received 55, 50 and 45+ FV grades, with Labourt the farthest away of the six (although not by much). I’d lean to the Price haul and I’d lean strongly that way if Norris can work out his delivery issues.
Daniel Norris, LHP, Detroit Tigers, FV: 55
Coming into this year, Norris was riding a wave of positive momentum after a non-descript start to his pro career, itself coming on the heels of a $2 million bonus in the second round in 2011 out of a Tennessee high school. The big question on Norris coming into pro ball was his delivery and those questions still exist now, even though they disappeared in the second half of 2014 when he steamrolled his way to the big leagues from A-Ball.
In case you missed it, I’ve broken down the prospects in the Tyler Clippard (A’s to Mets) deal, the Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies to Blue Jays) trade and in one post yesterday covered the prospects in the deals of Ben Zobrist (A’s to Royals), Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies to Nationals), David DeJesus (Rays to Angels), and David Murphy (Indians to Angels) trades. It sounds like there’s still a few more deals to come, but last night’s huge deal sending Cole Hamels to the Rangers has plenty of interesting young players to cover.
In short, scouts were surprised that the Phillies sent Hamels to Texas without getting 3B Joey Gallo, RHP Alex Gonzalez or RF Nomar Mazara, but by paying down Hamels and taking Matt Harrison’s contract, Philly got three prospects from Texas’ top tier, which makes it a nice trade for both teams at this point. You can see Eno’s take on the deal from a big-league perspective and also see my preseason reports on the Rangers deep system and my preseason Top 200 for more notes/context on these players.
Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies, FV: 55
In case you missed it, I’ve broken down the prospects in the Tyler Clippard (A’s to Mets) deal and the Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies to Blue Jays) trade. I’ll catch up here on yesterday’s deals, breaking down the prospects involved in the Ben Zobrist (A’s to Royals), Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies to Nationals), David DeJesus (Rays to Angels), and David Murphy (Indians to Angels) trades.
Lead Prospect Analyst Kiley McDaniel is currently scouting the East Coast Pro prep showcase in Tampa, Florida. What follows is a collection of scouting reports written by McDaniel concerning the three players traded by Toronto to Colorado in exchange for Troy Tulowitzki — compiled and updated to account both for recent developments and/or likely role with the Rockies.
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies, FV: 55
In Hoffman’s offseason scouting report, I noted that he was in contention to go #1 overall until his elbow surgery just before the 2014 draft, in which he went ninth overall. He made his first pro appearance this year and started making buzz right away, showing big velocity in a late big-league spring-training appearance, then in extended spring training and in his regular season debut at High-A Dunedin (he was just promoted to Double-A in the last few days). In the video, the first game shown is when I saw Hoffman about a month ago and the second game is when our own Chris King saw his first start for Dunedin about a month before that.
I like to keep all the clips we have of a player in the official video on the FanGraphs YouTube page (now over 1 million views and 1,000 videos in less than a year) for reasons just like this, so we can see the changes over time. Notice from the third game in the video (the summer before he was drafted, in the Cape Cod League) how aggressive Hoffman’s delivery is (and the knockout curve at 3:00) and note that much of that is still there in the second game, his pro debut in Dunedin. Now look at the first game, the most recent one, and notice how much more upright, stiff and generally tall-and-fall his delivery is, rather than attacking the plate.
If you’re reading this, you already know that the Reds dealt ace Johnny Cueto to the Royals yesterday for three lefties: Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed and John Lamb. For an idea of where these Future Value (FV) grades would fall, check out the top-200 prospect list and the Royals prospect list from just before the season. For the big-league perspective on the deal, see Jeff Sullivan’s take, and for a more statistical look at these three prospects, Chris Mitchell has also published a piece at the site.
Brandon Finnegan, LHP, Cincinnati Reds, FV: 55
