Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 7/31/15

Kiley McDaniel: Running out to the car to get the charger for my laptop. Will answer questions alongside my Chipotle bowl in moments.

Kiley McDaniel: I’m here!

Comment From AJ Preller
Can Javier Baez stick at short?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think so, but some people think maybe. I think at best it’ll be like Corey Seager where it’s fringy and you put up with it for a few years if he hits, then eventually move him before he makes the big money.

I mentioned the whispers about Baez’s makeup when I was lower on him than the other publications two years ago and it seems like those whispers are getting louder. In general, iffy makeup guys that have trouble with their bread and butter (hitting for Baez) can’t be asked to also do another thing slightly out of their comfort zone, skills-wise (play shortstop). I’d hope for second, settle for third and hope it isn’t right field.

Comment From Pale Hose
Oh, look it’s Kiley.

Kiley McDaniel: It is.

Comment From Ryan
Gleybar Torres of the Cubs what have you heard on him recently? stock rising?

Kiley McDaniel: Way up. Not a huge upside guy but very likely (for an A-Ball guy) to be a middle infielder that hits over .270 with good plate discipline, 15-18 homers, good instincts/makeup, etc. 50 FV for now, could be 55 FV before he gets to the big leagues. Him, Barreto and Albies all generally fit as high certainty Latin infielders that probably aren’t superstars but are about as low risk as A-Ball guys get.

Comment From Josh G
How would you rate the Brewers’ haul in the Gomez trade?

Kiley McDaniel: Really like Brett Phillips, going all the way back to months before the draft when he asked me why I wasn’t interviewing him yet when I was watching his teammates take BP. Santana is a power guy without much feel for the game that may not have a whole lot more in there, Houser is an arm strength 40 FV reliever probably 7th inning but is up to 98 mph and Hader is probably a 5th starter, swing man, 7th inning type that’s lefty, throws hard and is funky, but doesn’t have all the things you like to see from a slam dunk starter.

Kiley McDaniel: Writeups on that trade and others are on the way, but the short version of that group is Brett Phillips and three other guys.

Comment From Pale Hose
Too important to talk to Cistulli on the program?

Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t have time this week between the showcase and on call with trade stuff. I can now, so we will soon.

Comment From Robert
So, Sean Newcomb heading to AA. Any updates on him from new looks or buzz around the industry?

Kiley McDaniel: Up a lot. Probably 60 FV now. The post-draft buzz was accurate. I think he’ll be better than Heaney.

Comment From mtsw
Is trading for Aroldis Chapman with “the idea of extending him” the most Diamondbacks idea ever?

Kiley McDaniel: What this team needs is a closer getting paid a market rate that you give up real assets for. And a few more big guys whose only tool is power. 100 MPH AND DINGERS CHICKS DIG THE D’BACKS.

Comment From jj
Who’s better – Wendle or Kaminsky?

Kiley McDaniel: I’d take Kaminsky

Comment From Jimmy Johns
Has your grade of Norris changed at all since the beginning of the season with all of his struggles.

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, dropped from 60 to 55 FV. Details here: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From Kris
How good does Olivera have to be to justify this trade for the Braves? or is it unjustifiable

Kiley McDaniel: Not unjustifiable. I explained this on a radio interview yesterday (I RT’d it @kileymcd if you want to listen) that ATL looks at this rebuild as acquiring the big pieces, then filling in small pieces later. They want to get multiple aces as the backbone, so they’re acquiring upside arms. They think Wood (delivery risk, salary will increase) and Peraza (not as good as hoped) as small pieces and Olivera on that kind of contract as a big piece.

So, in the big picture, packaging small pieces and getting another high upside arm (Bird), another pick that could be even better than that and a big piece makes total sense. Olivera has some risk given the age and injury history but all of these guys do, or else they wouldn’t be available.

Comment From Taylor
If it’s true that Detroit insisted on Seager in Price talks w/ LA, that almost proves that having upper echelon talent in your system can work at a disadvantage, yes? JdL + should be a better package than what they got from Toronto.

Kiley McDaniel: Wrong. Fans don’t realize how little consensus there is across all 30 teams when it comes to scouting players. What if DET didn’t see De Leon late last year then saw him twice this year in bad starts? Across 30 teams, that is totally possible. In that case, he isn’t a headline piece for DET so they ask for the guy that would be.

I mention this around draft time, but there’s guys that a fan base wanted their team to draft in the 20’s that the team didn’t have in their top 75. It happens.

Comment From Jeremy
Daniel Norris. He’s a baseball player. He’s a good baseball player. I like baseball players.

Kiley McDaniel: who live IN A VAN DOWN BY THE RIVVVEEERRRRRR

Comment From Mike
Hey Kiley! The Jays signed Alford to a unique and risky contract that is working out well for both sides right now. Are there young two sport players every year that could benefit from this or is the Alford deal a likely 1-off?

Kiley McDaniel: Could’ve been Kyler Murray this year except that he pulled himself out of the draft. Brandon McIlwain in next year’s class is a high profile QB recruit to South Carolina that there could be some intrigue around. He’s talented.

Comment From Guest
How did Jason Groome look?

Kiley McDaniel: This week he was the best I’ve seen him, heard he was at least this good in East Cobb a few weeks ago when I missed him. Flashed 60 breaker once, consistent 55. change was at least 50, Sat 93-95 early, settled lower. Still 16 or just turned 17. Big lefty with easy delivery. It’s really, really good. Could be 1-1.

Comment From Derek
What do you think of Zach Davies. I see potential for the good Marco Estrada.

Kiley McDaniel: All my thoughts are here. Likely 4 starter, could end up even better as a command/changeup guy, who beat expectations a little more than the flamethrower types

http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Over under on how my questions you get about deadline prospects that you just wrote up?

Kiley McDaniel: Way less than I was expecting. Nice job, guys!

Comment From The other Kyle
What does the Dodgers trade mean for Peraza? What are your thoughts on his ceiling and ETA?

Kiley McDaniel: I think he gets lumped with Austin Barnes as a multi-position guy that could be a low-end starter soon but the Dodgers clearly love depth at every position and versatility with young bats. I think he’ll dictate what they do with him.

Comment From Lorenzocain is a hell of a drug
Scouts continue to rave about Raul Mondesi’s tools but the production still isn’t there. At what point should KC be worried? Are you still high on him?

Kiley McDaniel: I think I’ve always been a little lower than most. It’s near impossible to be confident about projecting one of these types of guys that is really aggressively promoted and never really produces. Tools are obviously good though, so also hard to get off him altogether.

Comment From Josh G
What are the odds Domingo Santana can make enough contact to realize his full potential?

Kiley McDaniel: Very low. I think scouts are hoping for a low end everyday guy and expecting a platoon guy or dude with a couple good years that fades. Some are even lower than that.

Kiley McDaniel: I lumped Satana with Rymer Liriano and Yorman Rodriguez before the year as similar guys and one of them will eventually be good, even if it’s really late like Nelson Cruz. Impossible to know which one to pick or if it’ll happen next year or when they’re 27 after being claimed on waivers 3 times.

Comment From David
Now that Giolito is at AA, how quickly will he move? Is ASB next year a reasonable ETA for his big league debut?

Kiley McDaniel: Nats told me last offseason that once a guy is at AA, he could be called up at any time and the reigns are off. That’s a decent guess.

Comment From Fan of a Team
Why did my team trade away the prospect I love for such a poor rental? We got HORRIBLE value!

Kiley McDaniel: It always bugs me that fans have a voracious thirst to know about the guy they just got, but in many cases couldn’t name 3 players on the AA team that the new guy is headed to and never check back in to see if that guys is good even a year from now. The Internet, man.

Comment From Johnson Nash
Walt and the Reds got owned in cueto deal right? Price deal is just so much better. I also hate leake deal

Kiley McDaniel: You sound like a fun guy to talk to at parties

Comment From Alex
Any reports this season on the Phillies’ Luis Encarnacion? Will his bat carry him enough to get past the limited positional value?

Kiley McDaniel: Young kid, power approach, big raw, still too early to be confident about how the contact will come along.

Comment From Jimmy Johns
Who out of your top 200 Prospect list has made the greatest strides this season and will be jumping up the list?

Kiley McDaniel: Jose De Leon/LAD was a near miss that will now be on it. Jacob Nottingham/OAK was way off and he’ll be on. Matt Boyd/DET was between those two and right now I guess he’d be on. Francis Martes/HOU may have made the biggest leap. Stuff is almost Dillon Tate good, should easily make the top 100. He’s why you troll rookie leagues for big arms with athleticism.

Comment From Rougned Odor
I’m definitely the better 2B in the MLB. Addison Russell can just see my behind.

Kiley McDaniel: Russell is mad because no one wants to smell the Odor

Comment From earls ghost
I know this has nothing to do with prospects being traded, but can you say something about Richie Shaffer of the Rays? He’s been banging the ball around and I’m in a deep league and need a power bat. Does he get a call up in the next month?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe. corner utility guy for me, still a little worried about contact at the MLB level but the power is there and he’s learned how to get to it in games.

Comment From Nick
Hi Kiley. As an Indians fan, I am terrified by the idea of sending Carrasco and his amazing contract to the Cubs. Obviously Bryant isn’t going anywhere, but which other prospects would I hypothetically need to see them send in return to prevent me from feeling like I needed to grab a pitchfork and storm Progressive Field?

Kiley McDaniel: Hope for Gleyber Torres

Comment From Eric
When you say acquire as many upside arms possible, does that mean they plan on keeping the likes of Touki, Allard, Fried and hope they turn into rotation mainstays OR trade them for high upside arms because that’s what teams will want? I guess I just have a question regarding the timing of this Braves rebuild.

Kiley McDaniel: They’re acquiring a bunch of volatile assets and hoping a few turn into Cole Hamels via the bulk approach. If they don’t work out then they’re the smaller pieces I was talking about earlier and they’re all fungible, so trade or keep or whatever who cares, you know man?

Comment From Will
I haven’t seen any scouting reports about Erick Fedde this season, but his numbers look really good. Does he still look like a potential #4 now that he’s back and healthy?

Kiley McDaniel: Talked to a scout that saw him recently and sounds like the stuff is all the way back. Will be moving up the list. #2/3 upside.

Comment From Martin
Is V. Robles another guy who has made a big leap into one of your lists?

Kiley McDaniel: ENORMOUS leap, yes thanks for reminding me. Could be top 50 in baseball, easy top 100. Teams were asking about him and couldn’t pry him loose in the last few months. Anthony Alford is another one that was off the top 200 and will be top 100 now.

Comment From gmorris
Should we consider AJ Reed a top 20 prospect with the season he is having? He is crushing the ball.

Kiley McDaniel: 1B only, swing isn’t pretty so the upside is limited but may sneak near the end of a top 100. Go look where Greg Bird was last offseason. Roughly comparable.

Comment From Ian
A few years ago, you were probably the most vocal supporter of Max Kepler. Sure looks smart of you now.

Kiley McDaniel: Hey, I didn’t say it

Comment From VANCE
What RT number did you tweet stop at btw?

Kiley McDaniel: I keep getting more every few days. It may never stop! https://twitter.com/kileymc…

Comment From Jesse
JP Crawford a stud? Top 5 prospect now?

Kiley McDaniel: Might be. Haven’t lined up the top of the board yet but he’s good and guys getting promoted

Comment From Jeff
Have Javier Guerra and Anderson Espinoza done enough this year to change your grading of them from 40 FV?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep. Guerra probably 50, Espinoza may be too

Comment From Cicero
Is late august to early to look for your sortable 2016 draft board?

Kiley McDaniel: That’s about when I’ll be working on it. The All-American games in mid-August is the last events of the summer, so that’s the end of the info collecting process until October.

Comment From John
Tyler Glasnow: still a chance he ends up a reliever?

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t think anyone has said there’s any real chance of that happening for years

Comment From MillerHuggins
Odds that Domingo Santana challenges Mike Hessman for the MiLB home run record?

Kiley McDaniel: In that scenario, he’d retire too early to break it since Domingo would be a great Hurricane wind simulator

Comment From JV
Lewis Brinson is headed to double A. Does he have a chance to be a star?

Kiley McDaniel: Upside is huge, still a good bit of risk: http://www.fangraphs.com/st…

Comment From Guest
Hear anything on Jonathan arauz?

Kiley McDaniel: Also really good Rookie ball guy. Probably 40 FV for now

Comment From AF
Re: Olivera. The Braves may well consider Wood and Peraza to be little pieces, and they may turn our to be right, but based on the objective evidence (a controlled starter with established effectiveness, a consensus top 30-50 prospect) they are each individually about equivalent to Olivera in value. Shouldn’t they have got more for them even if they believe they are overvalued?

Kiley McDaniel: Peraza isn’t that high anymore, probably down near 100 now. Olivera if you factor in the contract would be really high on a prospect list. Figure how much you’d pay Bryant in his 6 control years if he did what you think he’ll do. It’ll be more than what ATL is paying Olivera. If you were to just get the 10th prospect in baseball, ATL fans would be happy since you could point to a list, but Olivera isn’t on a list.

Comment From BJ
Your comment about reports differing between the 30 teams is interesting. I know each team has their own scouting department and own reports that they keep on their own and other teams’ prospects, but do you think teams pay attention to national outlets who do full-time prospecting on every team – BA, BP, ESPN, even Fangraphs? It doesn’t seem like teams would (or should) miss all these outlets talking about a prospect like De Leon shooting up rankings

Kiley McDaniel: Teams know what publications say. Most analytics dept aggregate this rankings for ease of use. Some only use the ones they think are trustworthy as a proxy for industry consensus and disregard the others, some just average them all, etc. They know about his hype, but if your two scouts didn’t like it, how can you make him the centerpiece of a deal?

Comment From JollyJack
Do you think Colin Rea will be good enough to earn a spot in an MLB rotation?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, back-end type has made strides last year or so

Comment From Bob
what is a good player comp for albies? is furcal the closest? I cant think of many similar players.

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah at that height, the comps list is really short. Think like Lindor in your head as a shortcut.

Kiley McDaniel: Alright well I have 3000 trades to write up and a double header to hit tonight in FL before I head home then to Cali for a week. Drive fast and take chances, people.