Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL now that it’s warm and all the tourists are gone, things are looking up

Steve Sanders: When will the Blue Jays team prospect list come out?

Kiley McDaniel: This week for sure, rankings are locked now but we’re working on those reports and prospects week stuff side by side

Cave Dameron: If you had to convert any position-player prospect into a pitcher, who would it be and why?

Kiley McDaniel: You can see the top arms in the minors here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: I’d probably pick Robles or Pache b/c you want pure arm strength but also athleticism and body control

Kiley McDaniel: Hello friends and also other people, it is time for us to chat

Kiley McDaniel: ICYMI, we posted an Orioles list and tomorrow we’ll be posting the Yankees list, but I’m taking a quick break from writing reports to chat with you people. Here’s the prospects index page with anything you may need from us: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

Tommy N.: Mejia, Morejon, Renfroe too much for Realmuto if he doesn’t want an extension?

Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think Realmuto is being traded with an understanding he’ll sign an extension with the new team. I get the impression this is a 2-year rental and then he hits the market and maybe he likes his two years with you enough to give you a slight discount when everyone is bidding.

Kiley McDaniel: And that package isn’t insane, I’m not sure SD wants to pay that much and I don’t have a sense for if the market has cratered enough that you have to pay as much as we thought some teams may at the beginning of the offseason

Jeremy: How do you evaluate Yusei Kikuchi against other guys in his (likely) 55 FV bracket, like Chris Paddack, Brent Honeywell or Mitch Keller? Clearly higher ceiling and lower floor, but would that change his FV as well?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Scout call ran late but your next few lists are mostly done now. To your questions

Kiley McDaniel: Oh and in case you’re new here, I’m not gonna comment on other top 100 lists. The comment will be our own list, which is coming later

Bogs: Toss up: Nathaniel Lowe or Peter Alfonso?

Kiley McDaniel: Peter Alonso

Rays for Days: Hi Kiley! Is Wander Franco more so Manny Machado? or More so Carlos Correa?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s neither b/c people will be comparing prospects to him for awhile. Maybe Jose Ramirez is the closest thing in the big league like him?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, just returned from Seattle and some delightful time with Eric and Meg including (huge shocker) great food and also Driveline Pro Day, which we’ll be writing up soon

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is wandering around the house trying to decide on which toy to play with while I’m at the computer

Andre: Does Kyle Wright or Ian Anderson have the stuff of a number one in the making?

Kiley McDaniel: We don’t see every #1 starter coming in advance, like Cliff Lee and maybe Jacob deGrom, but we see most of them coming (i.e. they were deemed to have ace upside before they did ace things). So, very unlikely for Wright/Anderson. Both have a chance to be a #2 but I would say #3 is what you’re realistically hoping for, which is a perennial 3 WAR player

Kiley McDaniel: If we say every pro pitcher has some non-zero chance of being an ace or every position player has some chance of putting up a 5 WAR season (call it 0.1%), Wright/Anderson are maybe 1-5%, so don’t plan on it, but they’re still elite in that they’re over 1% and that’s a very small population of pitchers.

Kiley McDaniel: And I’m eye-balling those numbers, but I think that rings true

Kiley McDaniel: Hello everyone! After a quick technical issues, we’re off and running

Kiley McDaniel: The weather is now solid in ATL and I might go outside and rake some leaves later. Red Sox list is finalized and Eric and I are writing up the capsules today

Harris: Very surprising to only see Matt Vierling in the honorable mentions on the Phillies list. Could he make his way on by mid season?

Kiley McDaniel: Most 5th rounders don’t make the list the summer after they sign. There’s some tools there, so if he performs again, he’ll be on there

Larry: What do you expect from Amed Rosario this year? O/U 2 WAR?

Kiley McDaniel: Over, still big tools and made some 2nd half progress

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL, an unusual time to chat but here we are.

Kiley McDaniel: Scout is watching the front yard studiously, barking at anyone that dares walk by on the sidewalk

Kiley McDaniel: The Phillies list went up earlier this week, the Mets list is done but will go up Monday and we’ve a good ways down the road on BOS and TB for next week

Kiley McDaniel: Draft list also is basically done but not time sensitive, so that will go up soon enough along with a new podcast

Tommyboy: With the announcement of Koby Perez as international scouting director, how long do you think it’ll take for the Os to be players in the international market?

Blazeball: Any word on late bloomers in the int’l market that the Orioles could sign?

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay, family was just packing up and leaving so had to see them off. First Christmas in the new house is now completed and it’s still standing. Now to finish up some NL East lists, finalize the draft update, make plans for NYE and chat with you people

Kiley McDaniel: I think the lists will go Phillies then Mets then it looks like we’re headed to the AL East.

Seth: Andrew Vaughn going to be the first strictly 1b to go in the top 5 in a long time?

Santa’s Marginal: Right now- Witt Jr or Abrams?

Kiley McDaniel: Yep, that’s how it looks right now re: Vaughn. Again, here’s the current draft board (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&te…) and the update will just be sliding 10-12 names around and expanding the end of it, mostly moving guys around in the middle of the list.  Vaughn is in the 50 FV tier behind the clear #1 Rutschman and that 2 thru 12 could be in a lot of orders. Since Vaughn is a track record college hitter, he’s probably in the top half of that tier, but it’s still super early, so guys will move with performance in season.

Kiley McDaniel: And on Abrams/Witt, its probably about 50/50 in the industry right now and they’re both in that tier. I think we’ll basically have them back-to-back in the update, so it’s more deferring the decision until we get more info.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Nationals list coming soon, I would guess tomorrow with the Mets and Phillies both being worked on right now, but may be held until post Christmas. Sounds like AL East will come next.

Kiley McDaniel: Also the winter meetings pushed back the draft list update but that’s also basically done and coming soon and I think we’re recording a podcast in the next 24-48 hours

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions

Lilith: Who from the Reds system are you most excited to see break out next year who might not be a well known prospect (yet)?

Kiley McDaniel: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-33-prospects-cincinnati-reds/

Kiley McDaniel: There’s the list. Some higher variance guys to keep an eye on would be the top righties from the last draft class (Josiah Gray moreso than Lyon Richardson), SS Jose Garcia, RF Danny Lantigua, RHP James Marinan, 2B Cash Case