Kiley McDaniel Chat – 2/6/19

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL now that it’s warm and all the tourists are gone, things are looking up

Steve Sanders: When will the Blue Jays team prospect list come out?

Kiley McDaniel: This week for sure, rankings are locked now but we’re working on those reports and prospects week stuff side by side

Cave Dameron: If you had to convert any position-player prospect into a pitcher, who would it be and why?

Kiley McDaniel: You can see the top arms in the minors here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: I’d probably pick Robles or Pache b/c you want pure arm strength but also athleticism and body control

Steve Sanders: During your calls around the industry about Blue Jays prospects did you hear any surprising words about particular players?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

Jeff: Is Kunar

Jeff: Kukar

Kiley McDaniel: No?

Appa Yip Yip: Is the Jays list last in the AL East because it’s the most awesomest?

Kiley McDaniel: You guys are really bringing it early on

Jeff: Brennen Davis of the Cubs or that 6’5” CF the Yankees signed last year?

Kiley McDaniel: Kevin Alcantara is the NYY CF. Alcantara is a 40+ and Davis a high 40, so I’ll lean Alcantara but they’re both very high variance types where you can scout the statline a bit bc the tools are insane

DH in NL: What are your thoughts on Marco Luciano? Can he be the next international prospect to shoot up the prospect rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t expect Soto/Franco stuff, because those were both very unusual, but yes he’s already moved up since he signed

Tommy: Why doesn’t UNC at least give Michael Busch some looks at 3B or 2B this year? Athletically it looks like he has potential there.  I see them looking at LF but am I in a minority thinking he’s got a shot at a skill infield position?

Kiley McDaniel: He’s seen as RF/LF/1B fit, haven’t heard anyone bring this up

Kiley McDaniel: and doesn’t look like a 3B from when I’ve watched him move around

Xolo: From a farm perspective, which NL teams would benefit the most with a DH in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel: Teams with deep lineup and/or a logjam at 1B

Kiley McDaniel: SD with Naylor/Hosmer comes to mind

Michael: Hi Kiley – are the Red Sox tied to any big name IFAs for the 2019-2020 period?

Kiley McDaniel: Not to the top 5-10 bonus types but they have 2019 money left and we’ve heard they’re one of the teams offering Yolbert Sanchez a 2019 deal, so they’re putting that money to work

MrMet: As you have revamped how you scout shorter/slighter players a la Vidal Brujan, do you see the potential to rethink the value of shorter pitchers a la Eric Pardinho (someone who might have fallen victim to short-righthand bias)? Or is this not an apples-to-apples comparison?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s not rethinking short bias in that all short players are better than we thought. When you combine balls/bats/high fastballs/more lofted swings/more strength training, the little dudes that used to be non impact hitters these days can be impact hitters. The smaller pitchers are essentially the same as they were back in the day. The stuff that’s changed on that end (high FB/velo/spin rates, etc) don’t help shorter guys much more than big guys. The hitting stuff has shifted a bit.

Jeff: Why are the players so greedy and the owners so generous?

Randy Marsh: I am Lorde ya ya ya

Demi Orimoloye: Is there hope for me?

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve always liked you, but the guys we talked to for the Jays list have not been enthusiastic

Jake: What Division will be listed next?

Kiley McDaniel: AL West

Front Office : I remember you guys saying before the draft that Mets were going to pick a guy that ownership wanted over what the front office did. Fast forward a few months and Kelenic got traded. Does that say something about a different dynamic with the new regime?

Kiley McDaniel: From how we understood it, ownership wanted India and the scouts wanted Kelenic and ownership let them pick who they wanted. I get the impression Brodie values closer to the majors types more, so a HS pick was more expendable than a college pick would’ve been. Don’t think the two things are related.

David: Are you more confident now that Royce Lewis sticks at shortstop?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, somewhere around midseason it seemed like pro scouts had some conviction he would stick, then I got to see him in the FSL and it was better than amateur days

Bubba: Will the top 100 list come out after all the team write-ups are done?  Or do you already have a good idea of who the top 100 are and you just need time to put all the ideas on paper?

Kiley McDaniel: Prospects Week is next week and there will be a whole mess of stuff along with the top 100

BK: thoughts on alejandro kirk?

Kiley McDaniel: Fun, Astudillo-like-framed catcher in the Jays system. On the list!

Jake Mintz from State Farm: Why do all scouts and GM’s dress the same? Do any particularly flashy fashion fiends come to mind in front offices?

Kiley McDaniel: haha well that’s the same for most corporate environment re: the office guys. Like the vests for traders/everyone in Billions, or tech people, etc. Scouts do it more for practicality: golf clothes give you some formality for appearances but also moisture wicking and comfort when it’s hot. When it’s colder, scouts vary in dress more

Trent: Not to be overly contentious, but why do you bother responding at all to questions like Steve Sanders’ if all you have to provide in response is snark?

Kiley McDaniel: I could not answer at all?

Shane: % chance Wander S. Franco gets a MLB at bat this year

Kiley McDaniel: 5%

Shane: Are Antonio Cabello and George Valera basically the same player when looking at possible outcome/tools?

Kiley McDaniel: Their FVs are pretty similar, Cabello is like a cannonball on fire that’s above average at everything and Valera has a really pretty swing, kinda Kyle Tucker-ish. So they don’t do it the same way but they get to a similar place in terms of prospect value

Bob: How did Daniel Flores compare to Adley Rutschman/

Kiley McDaniel: Real different level of comp but Flores had a 70 or 80 arm and 60 raw with almost no hand load and played with an edge. Feel like he could’ve been a middle linebacker. RIP.

Kiley McDaniel: Rutschman is a longer frame with more graceful actions but the tools aren’t totally different

Steve O: On the Yankes list with Kevin Alcantara, You mention that it “may behoove the team to leave him in the less-scouted DSL as a way of hiding him from clubs who don’t scout pro ball there”. What does that mean?

Kiley McDaniel: He could be the kind of guy that if he tears up the GCL and everyone sees it that he’s the headliner everyone is asking for in any deal. Also with long arms, the DSL may be a better low-pressure environment to get used to pro ball.

Jlang: Why is Chavez Young relatively low on many jays prospect lists given his tools and results at a young age?

Kiley McDaniel: We were intrigued by the age/performance and CF fit but most scouts just think it’s a 4th OF

..: I wish it was almost anyone else chatting with us

Kiley McDaniel: mom?

GCM: Have you heard anything about any hirings or changes the new Orioles regime has made to the scouting staff beyond Koby Perez?

Kiley McDaniel: I know BAL is staffing up at their pace in multiple departments, no reason to hire 10 people all at once and maybe make a few mistakes. I’m sure they’ll get there over the next 12 months.

BB: Saw FL LHP Hunter Barco had his first public outing. Were you there, and can he go in the Top 10 picks?

Kiley McDaniel: I was not, but I’ll see him this year. Probably not top 10 but could be 15-30 with a good spring

Brian: Be fair…you didnt say ownership wanted someone other than Kelenic, you said that “a rich idiot in the room” wanted someone other than Kelenic

Kiley McDaniel: lol I don’t remember saying that but I also don’t think that’s wrong

Katman: Seem to be fairly mixed opinions about Jonathan India. Is this due to his lacklaster pro debut? His college numbers were hellacious.

Kiley McDaniel: I feel like most people know exactly what he is. Lots of 50s and 55s at 3B that should move reasonably quickly and will probably be a 2-3 WAR guy in the end. I think the spin that his pro debut changes his stock is some weak sauce after he massacred the SEC. He’s exactly the type of guy that progressive clubs would buy right now, before he puts up numbers at a higher level, quick to MLB, strong performance track record, CIN is full at 3B, etc.

International: Are the blue jays tied to any of the top 5-10 international prospects for this upcoming July 2? In recent years they have, I wonder if the trend continues.

Kiley McDaniel: Not on the top 5-10

Jays Fans: We thirst for #content

Kiley McDaniel: i am your thirst trap

Office thoughts: Could the MLB create an incentive program to pay younger players more? Meaning while players are arb eligible, they get guarenteed say $1 million for finishing top 5 in BA $3 million for winning etc…

Kiley McDaniel: Not a terrible idea, but it would be so funny if the biggest prize was for batting average

Jim Bob Cooter: wouldn’t it be annoying to be in the front office and get hounded by prospect writers every 15 mins?

Kiley McDaniel: haha well luckily we only write the list once a year, so most guys give us like an hour a year unless they tell us they’re willing to give more. are you positive every other prospect list you read is making tons of phone calls?

Pres of J. Hellickson Fan Club: Do you agree with me that I don’t care if a pitcher coming in faces 1 batter or 3?

Kiley McDaniel: Agree. If we’re trying to take boring parts of the game out, unfortunately the sidearm lefty throwing 83 with a frisbee slider that gives Big Papi fits isn’t making anyone happy. Gimme another guy throwing 97.

Jeff: Best players over the next decade between: Isaac Paredes, Willy Adames, Andres Gimenez, Aramis Ademan

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll lean Adames

Word: Are you a smart ass in your professional face to face encounters, or is it only limited to your chats?

Kiley McDaniel: lol I’ll never understand all the hurt feelings in chats over a couple quips in an hour mixed in with tons of info. would you complain about quips to my face?

Felix: What kind of power upside does Shed Long have?

Kiley McDaniel: 25 HR

Weenie: What’s to stop a different team from giving a better offer for an international free agent? Like someone topping SFG by $1M after they like what they see from Luciano. Seems confusing why teams/players are agreeing to deals two years in advance, especially when their prospect stock can go up/down and other teams could still theoretically jump in?

Kiley McDaniel: Well the agent can’t do early deals if he starts breaking them and if he can’t do early deals then he has to settle for whoever has money left on signing day, which is a much less robust market.

Kiley McDaniel: Secondly, when we asked amateur scouts about Luciano most of them said some version of “I liked what I saw earlier, but wanted more games to see if he had closed up holes, then he had a bad showing at an event, disappeared for awhile, then he had a solid event and he was done and I haven’t seen him for over a year”

Kiley McDaniel: All 30 teams don’t get all the looks they want. Some teams that don’t spend money may only see these guys at 1-2 open events before they disappear

Kiley McDaniel: It’s common for top of the market players to turn down bigger offers after a verbal deal

Kiley McDaniel: There’s similarities to football recruiting, too. If the parents think your team is looking out for their son, to them $4M from you vs. $6M from some guys they don’t know isn’t an easy of a decision as you may think from the outside. We’ve all seen huge bonus kids get mismanaged by PD departments

Cal Stevenson: Was my electric appy league season nothing to sneeze at or was it something to sneeze at?

Kiley McDaniel: We’d like to see more. You had a great K/BB ratio as a 21 year old in the Appy league and you have very little power. K/BB will regress against better pitching, then what’s really there beyond speed and CF fit?

Chuncey Wiggins: Is there an aspect to overly zealous fandom that you don’t get? Do you ever see a fan do something and wonder how it ever got to that point?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah I’m so far removed from that it does seem foreign at times. When I meet people they ask what teams I root for and I say the ones where my friends work, or the ones with players I personally like. I can’t remember the last time I was legit down because of how a game turned out.

Kiley McDaniel: IT ME, BASEBALL ROBOT

Kiley McDaniel: MEEP MORP

Otto Lopez: Am I a sleeper?

Kiley McDaniel: I guess, probable upside is utility so maybe a napper?

Nolan : Jerrion Ealy just re-committed to Ole Miss!

Kiley McDaniel: As I noted on twitter, I was told Bama/Clemson told Ealy it’s 100% football if you come here, so if he chose Ole Miss, that means he’s still in play for the draft

Kiley McDaniel: And presumably playing 2 sports if he gets to campus

Kurupt FM: Whats the highest FV a MiLB reliever has gotten? With the increased emphasis on bullpens has this changed a lot recently?

Kiley McDaniel: i think 50 is about as high as we can go. Top relievers in MLB are 60, maybe 65 so 50, maybe 55 is about as high as a reliever could be without MLB time

NotGraphs Revivalist: Kiley, I respect your snark game. Keep it up

Kiley McDaniel: Bring back NotGraphs!

Shirtless Bartolo on a Darkhorse: If a question goes unanswered in a chat, was it really even asked at all?

Danny: Baseball America reporting that Jasson Dominguez is likely to sign with the Yankees on July 2. Can you give a scouting report and how does he compare to other recent top IFA signings at the time of signing (Luciano, Franco)?

Kiley McDaniel: That was reported in this chat over a month ago

Kiley McDaniel: And Dominguez will be discussed in Prospects Week next week

Richard: Have you noticed a significant difference in your interactions with other scouts while you were employed by the Braves as opposed to by Fangraphs?

Kiley McDaniel: Not really. Guys you don’t know super well don’t want to tell an opposing scout or a media member a ton about his list. When you know/trust someone, you get about the same level of honesty. There’s always some stuff that goes unsaid, or like post draft a friend will tell me the guy he was hiding all spring and he’ll ask how much I knew.

Rivervillian: I only know of Pardinho, but are there any other Brazilian prospects in the minor leagues generally? And is there any sign of interest in baseball expanding in Brazil?

Kiley McDaniel: Luiz Gohara is the other big one

Tom: If Universal DH is good for Dan Vogelbach, is Universal DH is good for all of us?

Kiley McDaniel: We should all want Dan Vogelbach to be happy

Jason: Is Jerrion Ealy actually a first-round talent?

Kiley McDaniel: Fringe first round for us, maybe more 30’s than 20’s, but that’s not a huge difference

Kiley Quips <3: Good lord it’s like no one has a sense of humor/a sense for what is a good question. Keep lighting ’em up!

Kiley McDaniel: I LIKE THIS GUY

Kiley McDaniel: SLASH GIRL SLASH OTHER

Danny: From back to front, how many hours do you think goes into each team’s prospect sheet (specifcally, the total amount you and Eric put in)

Kiley McDaniel: We laughed when we had a phone call to firm up the NYY list and set it after all the phone calls and a couple hours of whipping it into shape…and that finalizing phone call was 2 hours

Kiley McDaniel: So like, apart from writing the reports it’s like 8-10 hours on each one

DJ Tanner: When do teams post what level they are sending their prospects to?

Kiley McDaniel: The MILB rosters of the team web site generally get them a few days before MILB opening day. They don’t really send out press releases, but sometimes reporters will get certain prospects ahead of time

Kiley McDaniel: And there’s always a bunch of stragglers that stay behind at spring training then head out in a few weeks

Ben: Does this mean you’re not a fan of the World Baseball Classic and rooting for ‘Merica?

Kiley McDaniel: oh no i always have on my flag lapel pin since i am running for office once I’m 35

Jeb: Will there be a July 2 feature next week…or will we need to wait and find out?

Kiley McDaniel: There will be

Jarrin Paryzek: As a Razorback still suffering from last year’s game 3, I think Kevin Abel is going to be really, really good at the next level barring injury. Is this a generally accepted opinion or no?

Kiley McDaniel: Stuff isn’t plus, so not a big time prospect right now, but if he keeps performing he’ll go good

Jake: Hi Kiley, thanks for chatting.

Chuncey Wiggins: Do you ever catch yourself binging Sumo Wrestling videos on youtube at 3 in the morning?

Roger: HURT.FEELINGS

Angel’s fanatic: Hey Kiley thank you for your talks.

WONDERING: First Time/LAST time: IF you’re not careful might you drop or misplace your items? Thoughts?

Chuncey Wiggins: In general what is the working environment like for an MLB team? Stressful? Loud? Isolating? Also how in the world do GMs and staff type on keyboards and phones while wearing baseball gloves?

ICHIRO: JUST. ICHIRO.

Matt Damon: MATT.  DAMON.

Kiley McDaniel: quite a flurry to close there. great job everyone. scout is sound asleep next to me. see you next week during PROSPECTS WEEK