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UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Episode 7
This is the seventh episode of a weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The show, which is available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, has a working name but barely. The show is not all prospect stuff, but there is plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men. Below are some timestamps to make listening and navigation easier.

1:41 – Our plugs, because we wrote a lot in the last week or so

2:52 – TOPIC ONE: FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards on his prospect asset value research that was rolled out this week over four articles

5:45 – Jason Heyward vs. Ronald Acuna Jr. in terms of service time and using that to count WAR

10:58 – Adjusting FV grades throughout a prospect’s career and how Craig adjusted for that and positional bias

15:15 – Can we put a dollar value on variance?

19:00 – Can we apply this framework to big leaguers?

25:15 – Craig takes a flamethrower to new managing editor Meg Rowley

25:45 – TOPIC TWO: New FanGraphs managing editor Meg Rowley joins the show to talk about the dark side of prospect asset value and what’s going on with the Mariners

27:00 – Are we bad people? You decide! (Meg decided.)

28:50 – Meg drops a swear. (Meg didn’t.)

30:50 – Kiley tries to defend himself

35:45 – Scrooge McDuck is referenced

40:25 – Does baseball’s salary structure need to completely change?

47:55 – Kiley proposes an ignored market inefficiency

52:10 – Meg bums everyone out

52:33 – We try to sort out our feelings about Dr. Lorena Martin’s accusations against the Mariners

1:14:13 – TOPIC THREE: Lightning round!

1:14:50 – SUBTOPIC ONE: MLB’s PDP program for high school players is expanding; how does this affect middle and lower income high school players, prep pitcher’s health, data collection, multi-sport athletes and the scouting schedule at large?

1:26:45 – Will this increase the trend of having more non-scouts having input in draft rooms?

1:28:10 – SUBTOPIC TWO: Houston and Baltimore’s front offices hiring influx, where they stand with staffing, how they’re making decisions and what assets Baltimore should be moving in the short-term

1:46:17 – SUBTOPIC THREE: U. of Arkansas pitching coach Wes Johnson was hired to go straight to the big leagues as the Minnesota Twins pitching coach on Rocco Baldelli’s new coaching staff. Is this a new pipeline of high-end college coaches heading straight to MLB?

1:53:00 – The job that MLB teams are outsourcing to the internet

1:56:30 – A somber goodbye to our dearly departed Carson Cistulli

2:02:12 – Eric brings up our third bummer topic of the podcast

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 2 hr 2 min play time.)

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UMP: The Untitled McDongenhagen Project, Episode 6
This is the sixth episode of a weekly program co-hosted by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel about player evaluation in all its forms. The show, which is available through the normal FanGraphs Audio feed, has a working name but barely. The show is not all prospect stuff, but there is plenty of that, as the hosts are Prospect Men. Below are some timestamps to make listening and navigation easier.

1:40 – Kiley takes a suggestion from Ben Lindbergh about a slogan for the podcast

2:50 – TOPIC ONE: Free Agency Preview

3:57 – Eric brings up how short the 2019 free agent class is set to come, relative to expectations a year or two ago

5:05 – Kiley gets in a solid Jeff Passan burn

5:20 – Discussing how we got here and how stock has moved in the past year or two, feat. Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Patrick Corbin, Josh Donaldson, Michael Brantley, A.J. Pollock, Daniel Murphy, Andrew McCutchen, Craig Kimbrel, Jed Lowrie, Nathan Eovaldi

7:00 – Eric brings up the junior college gambit Harper made almost a decade ago, specifically to pay off this offseason and Kiley speculates how much that ended up making him

8:20 – Kiley revisits how Harper, Machado and Jameson Taillon would’ve been evaluated using today’s amateur scouting methods as a way to get into comparing their markets today

11:00 – Kiley shares some buzz he’s heard about Washington’s willingness to spend on Harper (this is before the report came out about the $300M offer)

13:38 – Eric makes the case that Machado fits the Nationals better than Harper

14:50 – Eric comes off the top rope with a #RobotUmps leading to Harper being a catcher hypothetical

16:48 – Kiley comes off a different top rope with an Isaac Asimov reference

17:02 – Kiley comes down strong on Patrick Corbin vs. Dallas Keuchel

19:00 – Eric proposes a use case where Keuchel could uniquely fit with progressive clubs

21:30 – Josh Donaldson, Michael Brantley, A.J. Pollock, Yasmani Grandal, Jed Lowrie are discussed as a group of similarly-regarded hitters that are tough to evaluate

26:00 – Kiley (we now know correctly) calls Hyun-Jin Ryu being the only to accept the QO.

27:35 – Eric reviews the Cleveland outfield situation with Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall leaving, and holdovers Leonys Martin, Jason Kipnis, Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado, possibly Yu Chang

29:00 – Kiley points out that Cleveland’s approach paid off in timing Cody Allen and Andrew Miller correctly, as they’re both showing signs of decline

30:00 – The Yusei Kikuchi conversation

34:40 – Why Garrett Richards is so interesting and may draw interest from the most teams in this whole free agent class

38:48 – Kiley breaks down the chatter he’s heard regarding under-the-radar clubs that may spend more than you expect this winter: Padres, Reds, Twins, White Sox, Braves. Eric sees the Padres’ window may be opening.

43:00 – TOPIC TWO: Arizona Fall League review

44:53 – Glendale (BAL, CHW, CLE, LAD, NYY) players mentioned: Zack Burdi (CHW), Jordan Sheffield (LAD), Estevan Florial (NYY), Ryan McKenna (BAL), Luis Robert (CHW), Yu Chang (CLE), Luis Alexander Basabe (CHW)

53:30 – Mesa (BOS, CHC, DET, LAA, OAK) players mentioned: Brett Hanewich (LAA), Daniel Procopio (LAA), Darwinzon Hernandez (BOS), Erick Leal (CHC), Trent Giambrone (CHC), Esteban Quiroz (BOS), Eli White (OAK), Luis Barrera (OAK), Nico Hoerner (CHC), Bobby Dalbec (BOS)

58:55 – Peoria (ATL, MIL, SDP, SEA, TBR) players mentioned: Kyle Muller (ATL), Wyatt Mills (SEA), Adam McCreery (ATL), Travis Radke (SDP), Matt Krook (TBR), Ronaldo Hernandez (TBR), Hudson Potts (SDP), Buddy Reed (SDP), Trent Grisham (MIL), Keston Hiura (MIL), Lucius Fox (TBR), Joe McCarthy (TBR), Austin Allen (SDP), Ray-Patrick Didder (ATL), Evan White (SEA)

1:06:19 – Salt River (ARI, COL, MIN, MIA, WSN) players mentioned: Jon Duplantier (ARI), Ryan Castellani (COL), Justin Lawrence (COL), Brent Rooker (MIN), Brian Miller (MIA), Monte Harrison (MIA), Pavin Smith (ARI), Carter Kieboom (WSN), Tyler Nevin (COL), Jazz Chisholm (ARI), Travis Blankenhorn (MIN), Daulton Varsho (ARI)

1:11:20 – Scottsdale (CIN, HOU, NYM, PHI, SFG) players mentioned: Forrest Whitley (HOU, Trent Thornton (HOU), Erasmo Pinales (HOU), Garrett Williams (SFG), Sam Wolff (SFG), Melvin Adon (SFG), Luke Leftwich (PHI), J.B. Bukauskas (HOU), Taylor Trammell (CIN), Desmond Lindsay (NYM), Shed Long (CIN), Darick Hall (PHI), Andres Gimenez (NYM), Peter Alonso (NYM)

1:14:50 – Surprise (KCR, PIT, STL, TEX, TOR) players mentioned: Scott Blewett (KCR), Demarcus Evans (TEX), Zach Jackson (TOR), Connor Jones (STL), Nate Pearson (TOR), Evan Kruczynski (STL), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Cole Tucker (PIT), Andy Young (STL), Lane Thomas (STL), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Khalil Lee (KCR), Cavan Biggio (TOR), Tommy Edman (STL), Nick Heath (KCR)

1:19:30 – TOPIC THREE: A Twins scout sued the team for age discrimination and FanGraphs’ legal expert Sheryl Ring joins the show to break down this case and the efficacies of others like it

1:38:20 – We delve into the hilarious part of this case, tied to the history of the lawyer bringing the suit

1:39:40 – Kiley reads a prior complaint from this lawyer, including the passage, “vast nationwide conspiracy…to bring an end to happy hours”

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @kileymcd or @longenhagen on Twitter or at prospects@fangraphs.com.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 42 min play time.)

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I decided while working on the Top 50 Free Agents post that it would make sense to also write up the top trade target on the market. Since new Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen said the team plans to compete in 2019, it seems like Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are unlikely to be dealt — or, at least not during the offseason. That points to J.T. Realmuto as the clear top trade target in the league (and No. 24 in July’s Trade Value Rankings) — and that’s before nearly half the questions in my chat on Wednesday were asking me how much it would cost for various teams to trade for Realmuto.

I could approach this from an insider-y perspective and tell you what teams are telling me the price probably is, but that approach is limited in a few ways. First off, I’m not sure anyone really knows what the price is: the Marlins have turned down strong offers for a year now and still seem inclined to try to extend Realmuto, even thoughhis agent said he’s not having it. Since Miami has this one major asset left to move in its rebuild, they may act irrationally, but the market pieces may be falling into place for someone to pay a price that justified this delay.

If forced to succinctly describe the current state of catching in the major leagues, I would say it sucks. I’ll let Mike Petriello to provide some details and point you to the positional leaderboard, but if you just tried to predict which catchers would be worth two-plus wins and remain at catcher primarily for the next five seasons, how many would you have? Realmuto is one, and if you think Willson Contreras and Gary Sanchez may play a lot more first base or get hurt or be inconsistent in this span, it’s possible that there isn’t another one. Being charitable, there’s just a handful, and they all cost a lot or aren’t available.

Putting all of this together, Realmuto offers the age-28 and age-29 seasons of the best long- and short-term catcher in the game, and he’ll cost between $15 million and $20 million for those seasons, depending on how his arbitration salaries work out. You have him long enough to make two runs at a title and get a comp pick at the end, an exclusive negotiating window for an extension, a non-risky length of a deal, and cheap enough salaries that any team can afford it.

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I ended up writing a much longer introduction than Carson Cistulli would permit for the free-agent post made available earlier today. Instead of abandoning all that content, however, I’ve badgered him — against his better judgment — into letting me publish all the ideas too hot to be included in the most read article on the site for months. Do not operate heavy machinery while reading these takes.

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