Kiley McDaniel Chat – 11/7/18

Kiley McDaniel: Hello all from the almost empty Atlanta house, which will hopefully be filled by next week’s chat

Kiley McDaniel: ICYMI, we posted a top 50 free agents thing that I did the rankings/predictions for: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-top-50-free-agents/

Kiley McDaniel: And then all the stuff Cistulli wouldn’t let in the formal rankings, including buzz on timetables and under the radar spending teams went here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-free-agency-analysis-fangraphs-doe…

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll have one more offseason-focused article probably going up tomorrow and I’m editing a podcast with some FA talk as well

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions, which also appear to be offseason-focused

Tommy N.: Do you think a Donaldson three year deal to the Padres makes sense?

Kiley McDaniel: 3 year deal is what I projected and I think makes the most sense, but not sure if he fits with SD or really, on a larger scale, what SD is doing with the lineup. Mejia (C, maybe backup/supersub), Hosmer (1B), Urias (2B, maybe SS), Margot (CF) seems like the locks.

Kiley McDaniel: Then where do you put Wil Myers? Is Hedges/Mejia the C tandem or do you upgrade? I assume you acquire a SS and Spangenberg is a bench bat/Urias insurance. Renfroe, Franmil, et al in the OF could all best fit as part-time wait-and-see types or backups or traded, though Franmil seems ahead of Renfroe.

Kiley McDaniel: I wrote that there’s talk SD may make a splash and spend some money, particularly in the Eovaldi/Keuchel/Corbin high end range and the kids are coming with Tatis, Paddack, Logan Allen and Naylor all probably showing up at some point

Kiley McDaniel: Is this the time to spend on another Hosmer-like investment or take a breath and see what you have, then spend next year?

Kiley McDaniel: I could see SD either being a little too aggressive or standing pat. To be clear, I think standing pat and addings some lower investment FAs is the right path at this point

Kiley McDaniel: So, I guess my answer is no?

Larry: So if the Marlins want a position player and pitcher from Atlanta for Realmuto, what does that look like? Riley and Soroka?

Kiley McDaniel: Those two probably make the most sense, and if you had to add a third piece, it wouldn’t be much

Lazzaro Da Fietta: Dodgers’ K. Ruiz and A. Verdugo to Marlins for Realmuto. Who says no?

Kiley McDaniel: I think LA says no and tries to get him for a little less, but they first need to find out if Grandal is taking the QO

Kiley McDaniel: but that isn’t way off

Wilt Chamberlain’s cousin: Myers, Naylor, Lauer and Hedges for Segura Paxton and Colome. Who says no?

Kiley McDaniel: Nowhere near enough. Paxton and Segura were in the 40’s on the trade value list. Hedges/Lauer/Naylor don’t have a ton of trade value, more secondary pieces for big deals

West Coast Wreck: Do you get the sense the Marlins are just as concerned with perception rather than talent when making trades. They seem to be after known names instead of best talent in trade rumors for PR reasons.

Kiley McDaniel: They are more focused on PR than the average team, absolutely. When you’re rebuilding you kinda have to be, since you still need to sell tickets and have the fanbase interested or else revenue goes way down. That said, Miami has some perception issues in their market and in the media/industry so they’re more aware of it than even an average rebuilding club

CJ: All these rumors and speculation around trading Soroka. The Braves wouldn’t do that would they?

Kiley McDaniel: In the right deal where they deem they’re getting fair value in return, I think he is.

Lilith: Cody Reed, Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan… All of these guys were once top prospects and they’ve all failed to live up to expectations. The first question is why do you think the Reds have failed to fully develop these once promising pitching prospects? The second question is, do you think hiring Derek Johnson could lead to them possibly salvaging their careers and living up to the promise they once had? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: Don’t know enough about the specific issues each guy has worked on to say there’s a common cause, but DJ is well respected in the game, so that’s a good move

Captain Moonlight: What’s going on with the Astros’ analytics department?

Kiley McDaniel: Top guys are choosing to leave. That’s not a good thing. You’ll hear a lot of stories/theories, but that’s the part we can all agree on.

Captain Moonlight: Besides just lots of years/money/opt outs, what sorts of creative contract wrinkles could teams add to sweeten the deal for Harper/Machado?

Kiley McDaniel: I mentioned market size/endorsement chances/fun place to live, state income tax and team quality as some value adds that aren’t in the topline numbers here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-free-agency-analysis-fangraphs-doe…

Bees Knees: My guess is Boras/Harper will be seeking the most guaranteed money and the highest AAV, and it won’t matter who pays. I’m predicting 10/$330M with the first five years at $38M/season, and the last five years at $28M/season, with an opt out after year 5. That sounds… reasonable, no?

Kiley McDaniel: I could see that. There’s a lot of options for how to construct the deal to both get the buzzy numbers high and also maximize earnings

Brady : Would doubling every bonus slot amount in the draft be a reasonable alternative to the current structure? In that case, would Casey mize be worth $14 million?

Kiley McDaniel: The value drops off faster than the slots do.  I’d say Mize is somewhere in the 30’s. We actually have a piece coming about this very topic next week

NotGraphs Revivalist: Wright+Riley+Wilson+Teheran+Allard for Gallo+Leclerc. Braves get their corner OF and closer and dump Teheran’s salary. Rangers double the number of top 100 prospects in their system. Who says no?

Kiley McDaniel: LOL just reminding you guys what the average trade proposal in the queue looks like

billsaints: CC for $8 mil. Yanks must be happy with that in a ‘that’s one less thing to worry about, know what I’m gonna get’ kind of way.

Kiley McDaniel: And, free of the self-imposed salary cap, the bad scenario is you acquire pitching and bump him out of the top 5, and he’s an $8M long man with a loaded rotation and a huge payroll…which isn’t a problem. Okay, I guess not getting any more pitchers would be a bigger problem

Rays Fans: Hey there-a Kiley, first time long time. Is there enough middle-infield depth for the Rays to put together a package for Realmuto that doesn’t involve giving up Franco, Sanchez, Honeywell, or one of their first round arms from 2018?

Kiley McDaniel: Article for tomorrow is about this topic and this exact question is addressed. The answer is probably not!

Adam: Hunter Renfroe for Johan Carmago make any sense with Austin Riley on the way for the Braves?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope! It’s not clear Renfroe is good.

Bees Knees: Would a Kyle Tucker-centered package be too much for J.T. Realmuto?

Kiley McDaniel: Apparently my Realmuto article is exactly what the people want

Jake: Trevor Bauer said some stupid stuff on twitter about his and Kluber’s trade value. Are teams factoring his difficult “character” when they make a bid for him? Or are there even teams that don’t want him at all?

Kiley McDaniel: Some care more than others, but the shorter term the contract and the better your team, generally-speaking, the less you care

____: BVW said he considers Alonso to be an above-average defensive 1B.  I know that’s outside the industry consensus now, but does Alonso have a chance of getting there eventually?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean nothing is impossible, but that might be

Shameless Cardinals Homer: Who is the best/worst prospect of Malcom Nunez, Nolan Gorman, Elehuris Montero and WHY?

Kiley McDaniel: That list is coming I believe next week, but you can look here for a sneak peek of about what that list will look like: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/?type=&pos=&team=stl

Shor: How does Farhan’s hiring in SF change the org

Kiley McDaniel: Bigly. This would appear to lead to a top-down reevaluation of everything in the org, which could lead to Astros-level progressive/analytics embrace to more of a Dodgers/Yankees let’s use all of resources and try to balance both approaches, with the latter far more likely. Could be lots of front office/personnel changes or very few and some more gentle adjustments over the next few years.

NotGraphs Revivalist: Two outrageous BVW comments on MLBTR today:

1. No player is off-limits but the topic of payroll has not even been broached in any detail with ownership
2. Tebow could make the MLB roster “if he wows us” at Spring Training (BVW was Tebow’s agent)

Kiley McDaniel: 1. BVW could mean that specific number weren’t discussed but “keeping it about where it is” or “modest increases” is enough for early planning
2. This is embarrassing b/c Tebow isn’t even close to earning this on merit. If you’re rebuilding and want a  distraction, then sure. BVW is saying that they are competing AND he was just Tebow’s agent, so this looks really bad given his other statements.

Kiley McDaniel: I tend to think BVW is just being charitable and saying “anything could happen” and Tebow just happens to be a former client, but he’s also tasked with two main focuses early on:

1. Appearing truly being impartial toward NYM players he used to rep vs. ones he didn’t
2. Improving the perception of the Mets in general

This actively hurts both of those pursuits and BVW could’ve easily just said something generic like “every player will be given an opportunity commensurate with their performance” or whatever and accomplish both things. Unforced error when messaging is supposed to be a strength for him and the Wilpons care about media coverage/appearances.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Do you think Harper is looking for opt-outs in his deal? When you’re looking for 10+ years, 400MM+ dollars, I can’t imagine any universe where you opt out of a contract like that.

Kiley McDaniel: For huge deals, teams will be hesitant to guarantee every dollar that Harper/Boras thinks they deserve and could deserve. So get the important years (first 5 or so) at the correct number that everyone can agree on, then get an opt out so you can go get paid again if you’re MVP-level 5 years from now, but if you go down the tubes, you’ve got another $150M coming. No one is expecting Harper to be MVP level 5 years from now, so he won’t get paid like that, but it’s more possible for him than almost any free agent since A-Rod, so you need to be flexible in case it happens.

Rick Sanchez: Your guess for first free agent who signs for more than $50m guaranteed?

Kiley McDaniel: I’ll guess Corbin. It’s likely one of the pitchers and Eovaldi’s market will be much deeper, so may take longer to sort out.

NotGraphs Revivalist: Can you try to describe the Fangraphs work culture in three words?

Kiley McDaniel: shirtless cistulli ugh

NotGraphs Revivalist: Welcome to Atlanta! Think we could see a good ol’ southern FG meet up sometime?

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe? What’s the interest like for an event like that?

Kiley McDaniel:

GraphsFan: KIley’s chatting? Kiley’s chatting. Kiley’s chatting!

Kiley McDaniel: Scout has her head on my leg so I think she’s legally chatting as well

Wayne: Who do you believe the Braves value more between Pache and Riley. They seem to be the main two position players prospects we can dangle. Pretty good debate among us ATL fans.

Kiley McDaniel: Almost certain it’s Pache, which is also how we have them ranked.

Tommy N.: Thing with signing Donaldson for the Padres would be they move Myers back to LF and trade Renfroe

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, I mean that could work. By the end of 2019 it would be something like Myers-Margot-Franmil in the OF, Donaldson-Tatis-Urias-Hosmer in the IF, Mejia at C, some combo of Paddack-Richard-Lucchesi-Allen-Lauer-Perdomo-Lamet-Nix at SP

Kiley McDaniel: I mean that’s better, not sure paying retail prices for Hosmer/Donaldson really gets you closer to the playoffs in 2019, so why not hold back one more year?

Doug: Do you see the Braves just trading Teheran away for a low level back of pack prospect just to get his 11 million off the books and open a spot? Or does he have more value than that? Or need to eat salary to move him? Thanks!!

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, I think that’s the most likely outcome

James: Jones, Canning and Marsh get Realmuto?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, that should get you in the final group, not sure that’s definitely the best offer

Orioles : Any chance we dip into the Agent pool and go after Close? Can you shed some light on if the industry (specifically Clark and the PA) are worried about Close switching sides next?

Kiley McDaniel: To be clear, I don’t think hiring an agent in general is a good idea. It’s such a different job. Any one case could work, but this isn’t a new front office pool that every owner needs to be closely evaluating.

carrotjuice: Trade proposal: 9 House seats for a Senate seat and a house seat to be named later who hangs up first?

Kiley McDaniel: TOPICAL

J.T Realmuto Trade Proposal Hour: Does Jesus Sanchez, Nick Solak, Lucius Fox and Resly Linares get J.T. to Tampa?

Kiley McDaniel: That gets you in the conversation for sure, not sure that finishes the deal

Ken Lay: Does Andujar for Senzel make sense for both teams? NYY could use a better glove at 3B, CIN has a soft outfield? Even if neither team would do it, is this way off value wise? Trading a year of proven performance  for a year of service time? If not, who would need to add?

Kiley McDaniel: Reasonable on talent, wouldn’t say that’s impossible but don’t think CIN moves Senzel

lIKE: What would be some of the criteria to power ranking organizations development systems

Kiley McDaniel: Strictly minor league player development is the once aspect of a front office that I think is kinda impossible to quantify. How do you know what percentage of a player improving is development or just good scouting that this guy is the type that would improve? For the system I’m making that I alluded to a few weeks ago, I’m attributing all that improvement to scouting and folding PD into a front office grade with GM and pro scouting as a sort of catch-all good process/decision making, but even that is still hard to nail down an empirical method for value

Matt W: Am I crazy that the top free agents I want the Mets to go after are the recently departed Astros analytics guys?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s rare to have guys this proven and high-ranking hitting the market, so not crazy

brad: Kiley, we haven’t seen this much in baseball but a lot more in basketball (I think)  Would harper sign with Philly with the thought that Trout will join him there in two years?

Kiley McDaniel: LOL Boras won’t allow feelings and/or friendships and/or hope to get in the way of a SWEET PAYDAY, BRO

Jake: Was the Indians’ decision not to QO M.Brantley a mistake? You have him at 3/45, so he wouldn’t have taken 1/18, right?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, perfect world they would’ve done it. I believe I read they didn’t since he may accept and then they have to pay at least half of it before they can trade him and they need to cut money. One negative of going for it in a middle market with a maxed out payroll–you’re gonna miss out on some opportunities

Art: Wait, so you’ve moved from Florida -> Atlanta -> Florida -> Atlanta again?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s one more state in the middle of that but yes

Bryan in Boise : Eovaldi looking at 4 years, 64 Million?

Kiley McDaniel: Probbaly the most he’ll get, but possible

Aaron: I’ll drink and talk baseball with anyone that will listen.

Kiley McDaniel: 24 of you have already said yes, which is a pretty high %age of you that are in here currently which seems…fishy

Kiley McDaniel:

Brian CashGod: I don’t live in Atlanta, but would love a meetup in DC / NOVA if it ever happens! And shoot, I still need to see the Braves new ballpark, so if an ATL meetup was during a Braves homestand and was advertised early enough, I could go!

Kiley McDaniel: It is a solid ballpark with surprisingly good food in the area around it

Maximum Munchies: Are we in store for another silent winter as teams just sit and refuse to spend much?

Kiley McDaniel: I think there’s too much money that just got handed to GMs for it to be the same. We don’t know how much better it will be, tho. Still not a ton of irrational/emotional owners dictating changes, but there’s a few, which is more than last winter

Dystopian Future: Kiley you left Florida? I disapprove.

Kiley McDaniel: I was trying to eliminate my bad character traits per Eric’s last chat

James: Is it wrong to go online just to laugh at people making ridiculous trade proposals?

Kiley McDaniel: There’s so many other things to laugh at, but that’s a good one

Kiley McDaniel: Also, more than a couple GMs have mentioned things to me that they first read in this chat and I’m not unique, many of them read most of these sorts of chats from other writers, so you guys are getting exposure

The Old Buccaneer: Do see the Giants targeting Chaim Bloom for their GM position? Would that be considered a promotion for him?

Kiley McDaniel: Rosenthal said he didn’t think so and I tend to agree. Not a clear step up from TB

Curiosity Seeker: I’m wondering about a mashup/kegger in Vegas…I missed the one in Denver, but I would fly to Sin City…

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, I will be in Vegas for the winter meetings and, if there’s no trades, I’ll have almost nothing to do

Kiley McDaniel: well prospect lists, but nothing like specifically time sensitive during that week

RDJR8: I am now envisioning you sitting in some large room alone with a big “FanGraphs Atlanta Meetup” banner in the background”

Kiley McDaniel: why do you think I made a poll

Kiley McDaniel: this is why I don’t write books, bc the book signings would be my main nightmare

Ken Lay: Regarding the one other state….how was living in Alaska?

Kiley McDaniel: had to go on the lam to get away from johnny law and found some likeminded outlaws

Kiley McDaniel: learned to catch salmon with my bare hands

Kiley McDaniel: had my hands ripped off by a bear

Kiley McDaniel: it hurt but i appreciated the symmetry

Lilith: 3 neutral brainstormer common

Kiley McDaniel: oh, i guess we’re there

A Tribe Called Kipnis: If you’re in Vegas and have nothing to do, go see Donny and Marie at the Flamingo.

Brian CashGod: Alaska = IRL Red Dead Redemption, apparently

Rick: You type well for no hands

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

ELECTION TAKEZ: RON. PAUL. 2012.

ELECTION TAKEZ: RONALD. ACUNA. 2020

Pat Mahomes: PAT. MAHOMES.

Kiley McDaniel: This ballot is full of enticing candidates. See you guys next week!