Kiley McDaniel Turkey Chat – 11/21/18 by Kiley McDaniel November 21, 2018 11:03 Kiley McDaniel: Here I am, a bit ahead of schedule given the vagaries of holiday family blah blah blah 11:03 Kiley McDaniel: I wrote up the Paxton trade prospects yesterday here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/updating-the-prospects-in-… 11:04 Kiley McDaniel: Eric wrote up the CLE/TB trade: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cleveland-swaps-teenage-athlete-for-pi… 11:04 Kiley McDaniel: and we have the STL list up, PIT list is already done, coming Monday and here’s the primer on the changes to THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-board-updated-for-2019… 11:04 Tumbler, Whiskey: You were brilliantly composed on MLB Network yesterday. Nice job. That is all. 11:04 Kiley McDaniel: Thanks! Yes, I also did that. 11:05 Dylan: Who has more trade value between Dansby Swanson and Johan Camargo? Is it ridiculous to ask this question? 11:05 Kiley McDaniel: I think they’re both 2.0 to 3.0 WAR guys in the short-term, so not crazy. Both are capable of multiple positions 11:05 Tom: Who ends up being better: puk or luzardo? 11:06 Kiley McDaniel: I’ll lean Luzardo, but it’s close 11:06 KD: Do you have a formula (or rule of thumb) as to the relationship between prospect values? In other words, are three 40 FV prospects > = < one 50 FV prospect? And similar… 11:07 Kiley McDaniel: I don’t, but mostly because we didn’t have the empirical research to do that, so, using this link, here’s some shorthand: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ and https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-ou… 11:09 Kiley McDaniel: 60/65 FV, roughly $60M 55 FV, roughly $40M 50 FV, roughly roughly $25M 45 FV, roughly $6M 40 FV, roughly $2M 11:10 Kiley McDaniel: in general, if you want to know how many 45’s equal a 60, the math says 10, but I think you’d want more than exactly $60M over 10 players for $60M in one player…so then it’s guessing how much you have to overpay by, which we’ve guessed is around 20%. So maybe 12? 11:10 Slurve: If DiPoto’s angle on the Paxton trade was acquiring more higher floor/closer to MLB dudes than younger prospects, will that be his focus if Diaz and Haniger (Segura, etc.) get moved? If that’s the case then what sort of player(s) would Diaz command? 11:11 Kiley McDaniel: I heard that SEA had other competitive, possibly better offers by public prospect rankings, or a better headliner, but there was a longer time horizon to the big leagues or more risk in general and they sounded comparable given that criteria 11:11 Joser: How much disagreement is there in player evaluation from different team’s scouts? I.e., will one scout put a 50 hit tool on a player and another tosses a 60 or 65, or are scouting grades generally pretty consistent? 11:12 Kiley McDaniel: Generally, especially when you’re dealing with scouts that have some context, consider past performance they didn’t see if their look was really good/bad, etc. Some scouts will throw out 60 for a guy that should be a 50 if he was hot when they saw him, but a good scout will get close to the same grades as other good scouts 11:12 Lilith: If you’re serving cranberry sauce from a can, do you mash it up? Or do you allow it to remain in its natural, unnaturally ridged, can-shaped glory? 11:13 Kiley McDaniel: Make it from scratch. Throw a bag of cranberries in a saucepan with sugar and you’re already ahead of the canned stuff 11:13 Amber: If you could only have one appateaser for the rest of your life, what would it be? 11:15 Kiley McDaniel: had some poutine yesterday so that’s top of mind, a complex charcuterie plate is a solid choice or (puts on Oakley blades) anything at BDubs, bro 11:17 Kiley McDaniel: Sorry, I’m now finding all the questions my family is asking while sitting here looking at me 11:17 Justin: What are your thoughts on two-time “Cistulli’s Guy,” Pablo Reyes? Effective platoon guy? Something more? Less? Good/bad defense? Longenhagen mentioned that his good start is backed by batted ball data in the Luplow trade writeup. 11:17 Kiley McDaniel: Pretty good utility guy that’s already there, higher than you think he’d be on the PIT list 11:19 Chellsee: Thoughts between Macarons, Macaroons, and Macron? 11:19 Kiley McDaniel: This was a big discussion around the dinner table last night 11:20 Kiley McDaniel: My family also confused Colbert, Trevor Noah and John Oliver somehow 11:20 MZ: Are you hearing any interest in making further changes to the draft in the next CBA? 11:20 Kiley McDaniel: It’s always a second tier topic, but I’m sure there will be a tweak, most likely around pre-draft physicals 11:21 Nils: Hi Kiley, thanks for doing a chat today. Who has the highest ceiling among the Pitt OF prospects? Swaggerty, Lolo, Mitchell, Oliva? 11:21 Kiley McDaniel: Swaggerty by a lot. 60 raw, 65 speed, 60 arm. Very rare combo, just needs to dial in the approach at the plate 11:21 Sparrow: Who is your favorite long term choice between: dumplings and bao 11:22 Kiley McDaniel: The best bao is the best option here 11:23 Holt MaGroin: What’s your favorite Thanksgiving side dish 11:23 Kiley McDaniel: Depending on the execution, mac n cheese, sweet potato casserole or dressing/stuffing 11:23 P: The Astros price for Paxton was rumored to be Whitley, which they balked at. The ask from the Astros seems to be significantly higher than the actual return they got from the Yankees. Is that just the division surcharge the Mariners were asking for? If not why didn’t they wait a bit longer to get a tier higher prospect they were targeting? 11:25 Kiley McDaniel: This happens sometimes when you’re on the team side. We have Yordan Alvarez ranked close to Justus Sheffield, but if SEA prefers Sheffield, they then say it’s Tucker or Whitley or no deal. And that can be frustrating. Not sure that’s what happened, but it wouldn’t surprise me. Happened at times when I was ATL when the ask was Acuna or no deal, when Acuna was a crazy ask but the team making the demand thought he was the only guy better than the deal on the table. 11:26 Tumbler, Whiskey: Criticism is the nature of the beast, but I’ve seem some of Mr. Edwards’ prospect valuations. Not because the figures are off, but given the (perceived) somewhat cold, unnuanced nature of the idea in general. But then we see the Paxton deal and the math (Paxton’s surplus value & the prospect values) pencil out pretty well. Can you shed some light on whether teams are actually using this type of value calculation in their trades? Or is it more like, hey, we like these three guys and this feels fair for our guy? 11:28 Kiley McDaniel: So, the math I did here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/updating-the-prospects-in-… 11:29 Kiley McDaniel: and landed on $34 million in prospects for $35-50 million in Paxton 11:29 Kiley McDaniel: which almost exactly matches the perception of the deal, which is “acceptable/fine, but lower than we expected given that a bunch of teams were showing interest” 11:29 Kiley McDaniel: and Craig pointed out how it matched in the Archer/PIT deal as well 11:30 Kiley McDaniel: Teams are necessarily doing this exact calculation, but more than a few are doing a version of it and some less analytically-inclined one are using past deals as markers, but the past deals match this framework 11:30 Kiley McDaniel: so there’s a reason these deals broadly fit into this context, often the same way your snap reaction gut feel would evaluate it 11:31 Kiley McDaniel: And this week’s podcast, likely getting posted today, we have Craig on for one segment to explain it, then Meg for another to talk about the more icky implications of putting dollar amounts on humans, etc. that this does 11:31 Stevie the TV: When will you be reproducing 11:31 Kiley McDaniel: Ah, the holidays with family 11:31 Pip: Does Mason Denaburg have a chance to move into the top 100 next season if he puts up decent numbers? Is the stuff already good enough? 11:32 Kiley McDaniel: Yes, he likely would’ve been higher on draft/current rankings if he didn’t miss time with an injury in the spring. Comparable to current top 100 guys 11:32 Kiley McDaniel: Somewhere 140-175 right now 11:32 Hamantha: I’m in the market for a meat based product that I can use in the bathroom. Thoughts? 11:32 Kiley McDaniel: Could I interest you in Jon Hamm’s John Ham? 11:33 Purple Mays Haze: What are somme of the factors to project a hit tool grade on a 16 year old? Quick bat, quiet mechanics? For someone given a 20/50, what do they need to do to get to the 50? 11:34 Kiley McDaniel: Bat speed, mechanics, consistency, quality of at bats. Obviously tougher with everything in flux and limited ABs 11:34 David: Kiley never put on oakley blades again, please. 11:35 Kiley McDaniel: Only for comedic effect. Well, these days it’s only for comedic effect. I had my Guy Fieri days. 11:35 TJ: For a current college player looking to work in an MLB front office at the conclusion of my career, would you recommend getting a master’s degree in a technical field such as statistics? Or would simply learning R/SQL on my own likely be good enough? 11:36 Kiley McDaniel: masters in stats would help, R/SQL before you first job would help more 11:37 Will: Paxton seemed like a perfect trade target for the Braves. Do you see them in the market for a Patrick Corbin type of free agent? 11:37 Kiley McDaniel: Paxton does fit what they seem to be looking for, sounds like they made a healthy offer. Corbin fits as a player, but for the contract I think it’s unlikely 11:38 David: Are you excited for Dipoto’s annual thanksgiving eve trade? 11:38 Kiley McDaniel: I assume he’s at Carrie Mathieson/Pepe Silvia levels of research on the walls in Safeco 11:39 Purple Mays Haze: Instead of protecting the ‘best’ players for the 40 man, how much hiding players do clubs do? e.g. not sending guys to AFL to pretend they’re not in high regard, etc. 11:40 Kiley McDaniel: If a Rule 5 eligible guy played in short season and was injured some/tough to see is the guy you hide. Almost everyone else has been seen enough that hiding them is just telling other teams that you like them 11:41 Al Killeu: Best thanksgiving cockatil 11:41 Kiley McDaniel: You know I’m living that PSL 11:43 Tumbler, Whiskey: Thank you, Kiley (you don’t have to post this) 11:43 Kiley McDaniel: Compliments get posted! 11:43 Hey offseason its me ya boy: Is it probable that Austin Hays will bounce back given he has a healthy 2019? 11:43 Kiley McDaniel: Likely to be better next year, yes. Some bad luck and snowballing 11:43 Efrim: “Acuna or no deal” still seems to be happening in talks with Realmuto if you listen to some. 11:43 Kiley McDaniel: hosted by Howie Mandel 11:43 Jart: Should fans of all competitive non-NYY teams be mad that their teams didn’t match or beat that package for Paxton? 11:44 Kiley McDaniel: In general, yeah. Any specific team may have and SEA just felt like this was the best of similar deals 11:44 Robin: You mentioned bat speeds. Does this include vampire bats 11:45 Kiley McDaniel: This one was definitely from one of the family members sitting in the room with me rn 11:45 Kareem O’Weet: Choose between Carrie Underwood and Shania Twain. QUICK 11:45 Kiley McDaniel: I choose the MERICAN 11:46 Lola Beedow: Favorite minor league baseball team, purely based on mascots? 11:47 Kiley McDaniel: The Rocky Mountain Vibes, the Trash Panda, Savannah Bananas, Montgomery Biscuits. It’s a real golden age for stupid names 11:48 Nils: Regarding your homemade cranberry sauce idea: leave in the whole berry or strain? 11:49 Kiley McDaniel: The room is saying “mush then strain”, depending on how much roughage you’re looking for. Maybe some citrus 11:49 Mean Man: Do insults get posted as well? If so, you stink! 11:49 Kiley McDaniel: fair and balanced 11:50 Nils: Another question for the room! White or dark meat turkey? 11:50 Kiley McDaniel: Leaning white meat 11:50 Cotty: Do you have a sense of where many scouts stand politically? Is that a topic that ever gets brought up over drinks? 11:50 Kiley McDaniel: Yep, they lean right 11:52 Jim Leyland Palmer: Any Rule-5 guys you like in particular this year? 11:52 Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t taken a look yet but I’m sure I’ll find some before draft day to write up 11:52 Who Me: Any chance the Marlins actually get the Astros to offer Whittley or Tucker? If not, who would be the best prospect from any team they might pry loose? 11:52 Kiley McDaniel: I would guess no. Yordan Alvarez is the next best guy according to us 11:53 Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON. 11:53 Kiley McDaniel: oh, it really sneaks up on ya sometimes 11:54 Kiley McDaniel: a disturbing percentage of questions today were from my family members but i think we were due for them to intervene in these chats eventually we’ve been safe for so long but no more 11:54 Kiley McDaniel: see you next week!