I was standing in the Yankees clubhouse on July 5 after their 5-3 loss to the Red Sox when I received an angry text from my friend Andy, a huge Yankees fan. “How many years is it now that they light it up in the first half and because [sic] absolutely terrible in the second?”

I sent him back a few texts, first correcting his typo — Andy writes for a living, but considering that many of his texts are incoherent, this one wasn’t all that bad — and then answering his question about the trajectories of New York’s recent seasons. His response: “They’re just playing such ugly baseball.”

After the performance I’d just watched, which might best be described as the baseball equivalent of the poop emoji, it was hard to argue with his assessment. It was the first time in at least the last 115 years that the Yankees lost to the Red Sox at home when leading by multiple runs with two outs in the ninth inning. They made several baserunning blunders owing either to mental lapses, a lack of hustle, compromised health or some combination of the three. They botched two throws to second base, one from the catcher on a bunt attempt that probably should’ve been caught and another on a pickoff throw that sailed into center field. They allowed two two-run home runs to the bottom of Boston’s order — one in the ninth to tie the game and the other to lead off the 10th — and then failed to push across a run in the 10th with runners on the corners, nobody out, and their third, fourth, and fifth batters due up.

The loss was New York’s 14th in 18 games, and by the time the homestand ended with a 3-0 loss two nights later, the Yankees were 5-15 over a 20-game span. A week later, when they took two of three against the first-place Orioles, it was their first series victory in a month. Now, after a win Friday and two losses over the weekend, the Yankees enter this afternoon’s series finale against the Rays with a 9-20 record since June 15. Those nine wins are tied with the White Sox for the fewest in that span.

And yet, for as awful as the past five and a half weeks have been, the Yankees remain one of the best teams in baseball. At 59-42, they enter this week first in the AL Wild Card standings and just two games behind the Orioles in the division, and their Playoff Odds have fallen to 97.5%, down from 99.9% on June 14, the last night before all the losing began. Their 12.2% odds to win the World Series are the best in the American League; only the Phillies (16.1%) and Dodgers (15.3%) have a higher probability to win it all.

If you’re having a tough time making sense of this contradictory reality — that the Yankees have played terribly for over a month and remain the most likely American League team to win the pennant — you’re not alone. When I started writing this piece, I was skeptical, too. Living in New York surrounded by Yankees fans, it’s easy to understand why people like Andy are so frustrated; it’s difficult not to get caught up in the emotions of the moment, especially when that moment has spanned nearly six weeks. I also groan with cynicism when I hear manager Aaron Boone say, “It’s all right there in front of us,” because all we can see right now is a team standing amid the ruins of a season that was supposed to be different. However, on closer examination, it’s clear that the foundation of this once-promising team is still in tact, and I think the crumbled pieces from the caved in ceiling can be fixed and supported with beams borrowed, bought, or bartered from the neighbors.

To understand how the Yankees can keep the building from collapsing further, we need to figure out what exactly has gone wrong, and to do that, we should also determine what was working well. From there, we’ll look at how they can start putting their season back together and perhaps make it even better.

For the first two and a half months, this season really was different. On June 14, with a resounding 8-1 win against the Red Sox at Fenway Park, the Yankees became the first team in the majors this year to reach 50 wins, improved to a season-high 28 games over .500, and increased their odds to win the division to 76.6%. They had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball — this without reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, who hadn’t yet returned from the elbow injury that forced him to miss the first 83 days of the season — and their lineup, while still top heavy, was 20% better than league average. Aaron Judge (205 wRC+ at the time) and Juan Soto (188) were the two best hitters in the majors.

Of course, since then, their season has taken a turn for the worse in ways that feel all too familiar. Their potent lineup has become stagnant. Several key contributors have landed on the injured list, most notably Giancarlo Stanton, who was enjoying a resurgent season before suffering a hamstring strain the third week of June, and more recently Jose Trevino, who despite his reputation as a glove-first catcher was one of the handful of Yankees regulars who’d been above league average at the plate this season (103 wRC+). They are no longer hitting for average and they’re not slugging like they were over the first two and a half months. The only thing to improve since they started losing is their walk rate, but walks will only get you so far if you’re not getting the hits to bring those baserunners home. Oh, about running the bases — the Yankees have been the worst baserunning team in the majors all season, but now that they aren’t hitting for average or power, their ineptitude on the basepaths has turned into a much more glaring problem.

Some of these offensive woes can be attributed to injuries and players going cold at the same time, while some portion of it is probably due to players pressing as the losing persisted. Of course, some of it is just, to borrow one of Boone’s favorite clichés, “the ebbs and flows of the season.” We should expect some rebound here. This isn’t the case of Judge alone propping up an otherwise meek lineup as he did in 2022; remember, the Yankees held their own while their captain looked lost through April. That said, this offense still lacks depth.

Meanwhile, the Yankees pitching staff, which had been the bedrock of their success, has crumbled over the past four weeks. After posting the best ERA in baseball (2.90) over their 72 games through June 14, the Yankees have the second-worst ERA (5.37) during their 29-game slide, and they are the only team whose pitching staff has been below replacement level over that span.

Boone has cited a spike in home runs allowed as one of the main sources of trouble for Yankees pitchers — that the few mistakes his pitchers are making are ending up in the seats, whereas earlier in the year, they were staying in the ballpark, providing the pitchers a chance to escape the inning unscathed. And, for the most part, he is correct. Their opponents’ home run rate has increased 87.5%, from 2.4% through June 14 to 4.5% since then. But Yankees pitchers are also allowing a higher rate of non-HR hits than they did before. Their opponents recorded non-HR hits on 16.2% of their plate appearances through June 14; that rate is 19.0% since then. Meanwhile, using the same cutoff, the percentage of hits the Yankees allowed that were home runs has gone from 13.1% to 19.3%. So, yes, home runs are a big issue here, probably even the main issue, but the Yankees are also giving up more hits in general than they did before.

As the losing has continued, Boone and the players have resorted to the same keeping-the-faith approach that hasn’t worked for them before.

“Regardless of when we’re on winning streaks or when it’s like this, I think we have a really good clubhouse, staying even-keel and showing up every day,” said shortstop Anthony Volpe after that sloppy Friday night game against the Red Sox. “We trust each other, we trust ourselves. We know we’ve got everything in front of us. We play to win, we expect to win — we’re the Yankees.”

“We’re still believing,” Soto said after the Yankees’ loss to the Red Sox on July 7. “We’re still grinding every day. We still come in with the same energy. I think that’s really positive on our side.”

“Nobody likes losing,” Judge said after the Yankees lost their July 11 rubber match with the Rays. “Nobody is happy about it. We’ve just got to keep showing up, doing our thing.”

That implies that “showing up, doing our thing” is working, and well, at least right now, it isn’t. To the fans who have been through this with the Yankees before, many of these comments sound like a lack of urgency. Simply being the Yankees won’t save them from more losing, nor will the power of positive thinking.

However, Boone is right in a sense when he says, “It’s all right there in front of us.” Unlike in 2022, when the Yankees had an even better start to the season, this year they went cold before the All-Star break, so there are more games ahead of them to turn things around. More importantly, the trade deadline is still a week away, meaning GM Brian Cashman has had time to assess the flaws of the roster and determine which moves he needs to make to improve it, and he still has more time to work the phones and make something happen. Two years ago, the Yankees were 70-34 and 12 games up in the AL East entering the day of the deadline. Their fall to earth began a few hours after the deadline passed, when they suffered the first of five straight losses that kicked off a 3-14 stretch. They couldn’t swing a trade to pull them out of their rut; they had to make due with the players they had and hope they would snap out of it. By the end of the month, their division lead was cut in half, and it was down to 3.5 games after a loss on September 9. They rebounded from there and won the division, but they were gassed and overmatched by the time they faced and were swept by the Astros in the ALCS.

This time, the Yankees can look externally to address their weaknesses, and considering their willingness to splurge for one season of Soto, we should expect the front office to double down on its intent to win it all this year with a major acquisition or two. We know the Yankees need to add a productive hitter in the infield, especially at third base. All-Star Ryan McMahon, who has another three years and $44 million left on his contract after this year, would make a lot of sense, though it’s unclear if the Rockies would be willing to trade him because of that club control.

Otherwise, the trade market for third basemen has yet to solidify because there are so many teams caught in the mediocre middle. There has been some chatter about Rays All-Star and Ben Clemens’ favorite player Isaac Paredes, but considering he’s only in his first year of arbitration eligibility and therefore is affordable and controllable through the 2027 season, it seems unlikely that Tampa Bay would trade him without getting a haul of prospects in return — especially not to a divisional foe like the Yankees.

But that doesn’t mean the Yankees shouldn’t look to the AL East to improve at third base. The Blue Jays have old friend Isiah Kiner-Falefa at the hot corner. He’s signed through next season at a relatively affordable $7.5 million, and while Yankees fans might balk at trading for someone who was best suited for a utility role during his two seasons in the Bronx, they should remember that depth is crucial down the stretch and into the postseason. Beyond that, though, they should look at IKF’s stats for this season, because if he were in the Yankees lineup today, he’d be their third-most productive hitter by wRC+ (117), behind only Judge (208) and Soto (185). Kiner-Falefa also plays excellent defense and runs the bases well. The one concern here is that Kiner-Falefa is currently on the injured list with a sprained left knee. He has started doing baseball activities and is expected back late this month or in early August.

At this point, it seems unlikely the Yankees would trade Gleyber Torres, because for as much as he’s disappointed this season, there aren’t many available second basemen who’d represent an offensive improvement, especially not ones who’d be worth the cost. If they’re going to add a bat in their infield, it will almost certainly come at third.

New York could also seek to improve its offense with an upgrade in the outfield. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman has reported that the Yankees have discussed Jazz Chisholm Jr. with the Marlins. A lefty batter with power and speed, Chisholm would slide into center field, with Judge moving to left. That would likely move Verdugo to the bench upon Stanton’s return from injury (which MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reported recently is “really close”). Verdugo started the season strong but has been awful (17 wRC+) since June 15. The Yankees’ outfield defense would get worse with Chisholm, a converted middle infielder now in his second season as an everyday center fielder, but he would be an upgrade at the plate and especially on the bases. New York could also mix and match its lineup and work Chisholm in at second base to give Torres a spell against tough righties. Chisholm has two years of arbitration left after this season, and trading for him would also fill the hole at second base that the Yankees are expected to have next season; Torres is a pending free agent, and given his lackluster performance this year, it seems unlikely that the Yankees will re-sign him. Another outfielder the Yankees could (read: should) target is Jesse Winker of the Nationals, who has a 132 wRC+ this season and, as a rental, would likely come cheap.

As is the case with every contender, the Yankees need to add at least one or two relievers. Their bullpen is especially light on high-leverage lefties, so Tanner Scott of the Marlins is the obvious best fit, but the Yankees should also see what it would take to get Andrew Chafin from the Tigers. Or, if the Yankees do decide to trade with the Blue Jays for IKF, maybe they could get Toronto to throw in righty Chad Green and make it a bigger reunion.

The Yankees will be in better shape if any of these players are on their roster come July 31, but those additions on their own are not going to solve all the problems that we’ve seen over the last month. The good news is the Yankees as currently constructed are still a good team, maybe even a great one. As we can see by their place in the standings and Playoff Odds even after such a disastrous stretch, one month of “ugly baseball” doesn’t erase all that came before it.

A friend of mine is a huge Cleveland Guardians fan, and the other night we were discussing the awards chances for some of their top players. He pitched Emmanuel Clase as a Cy Young candidate — which, side note: Have you seen his ERA and Cleveland’s record when leading after eight innings this year? — but I was more interested in where José Ramírez and Steven Kwan might finish in the MVP race. I pulled up our leaderboards to see where they stood and was greeted with a surprise that had nothing to do with the Guards:

Huh? Josh Smith? The same Josh Smith who batted below the Mendoza Line in each of his first two major league seasons? The one who didn’t get a single postseason plate appearance last year? The one who barely made the Opening Day roster this season? Somehow, yes.

Through the first half of the 2024 campaign, that Josh Smith has been the most productive hitter in a loaded Texas Rangers lineup. Of course, that doesn’t quite capture how great the 26-year-old has been this season — after all, that loaded lineup is hurt and underperforming — but you could shave 25 points off his wRC+ and he’d still be their best hitter. Fortunately, the Yankees included Smith in their 2021 trade for Joey Gallo, so no shaving is required.

More to the point, Smith isn’t just excellent relative to the Rangers’ band of bangless bangers. Rather, his status as a great hitter this season is indisputable. Here’s where Smith ranks among qualified American League batters:

So what’s behind Smith’s surge? The most obvious thing to point to is his stance. According to Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News, Smith changed his setup and load over the offseason while working out at Texas’ Globe Life Field with Seth Conner, the team’s assistant hitting coach. Smith stands more narrow now than he did last year, and he has gone to a “stacked” load — meaning he keeps his head stacked over the center of his body through his swing to the point of contact. The purpose of these adjustments was to cut down on strikeouts and fly balls, hit more line drives, and get back to the contact-oriented approach that made him a Top 100 prospect a few years ago.

“I decided to change it because I was hitting like a buck fifty,” Smith told McFarland in April. “That was kind of annoying, so I decided to make some changes.”

His actual batting average last year (.185) wasn’t quite that bad, but regardless, if you want to hike up your average, striking out less and hitting more line drives is a good place to start.

Midway through this season, Smith’s changes have worked as intended. His strikeout rate has dropped from 23.7% last year to 19.2% this year, and his 34.9% fly ball rate is down from last year’s 40.4%. Meanwhile, he’s increased his line drive rate by 10.4 percentage points (25.3%, up from 14.9%). That’s the biggest jump among the 188 players who recorded at least 200 plate appearances in both 2023 and ’24:

Smith has said that in his first two seasons, he got caught up in the push for power. He was chasing fly balls because he thought that was the way to stick in the big leagues. In some ways, he achieved what he was going for last year: He dramatically increased his barrel rate (10.5%, up from 2.4% in 2022) and his average exit velocity (88.5 mph, up from 87.0). And last year was an improvement at the plate from his woeful rookie campaign, but that’s like saying the 1963 Mets were better than the ’62 Mets — they were better, but only because they couldn’t get any worse:

During the offseason, in the afterglow of winning the World Series, Smith concluded that he wasn’t going to cut it as a slugger. At 5-foot-10 and 172 pounds, he couldn’t generate enough power to make his 2023 approach worthwhile. So he started working out with Conner and the early returns were promising, as Smith had a good spring training (154 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances). He made the Opening Day roster mainly because of his positional versatility, but he was a backup and playing time wasn’t guaranteed.

That is, until third baseman Josh Jung broke his wrist in the fourth game of the season, requiring surgery. Smith replaced him as the strong side of a platoon but quickly hit his way into the everyday lineup. Beginning with his first start on April 2 through the end of that month, Smith hit .321/.415/.506 across 94 plate appearances, good for a 163 wRC+. He hasn’t looked back since, climbing up the batting order and settling into the no. 3 hole. Even with Jung nearing his return to the lineup, manager Bruce Bochy has said Smith has earned a starting role, though where he plays in the field will depend on the day.

Narrowing his stance and stacking his load have helped Smith get into a better position to hit, but being in a good position to hit and actually doing it are two different things. That brings us to the driving force behind Smith’s success: He’s making much better swing decisions.

Inspired by teammate Corey Seager, Smith has started hunting pitches over the heart of the plate. Sounds obvious, right? Swing at the most hittable pitches. Duh! But that’s easier said than done when you’re in the box and trying to gear up for 100-mph heaters while also worrying about nasty breaking pitches. In Seager, Smith saw the benefits of a selectively aggressive approach and realized he’d been overthinking things in the box.

Now he’s stripped hitting down to its most basic elements to such a degree that I’m cringing while typing this because it sounds like I went to the Crash Davis School of Baseball Clichés: Swing at good pitches, don’t try to do too much, hit line drives. But this really is what Smith is doing. Check this out:

Smith has been especially great at hunting first pitches in the Heart Zone:

This season, nestled in the lineup between Seager and Adolis García most games, Smith is seeing first pitches in the Heart Zone at a much higher rate, and when he does, he’s hacking at and ripping them.

There are some questions about the sustainability of Smith’s breakout. He is greatly outperforming his expected stats (.244 xBA, .350 xSLG, .314 xwOBA), and it seems unlikely that pitchers will keep grooving him this many pitches. But, even if a regression is coming, it’s hard to image that Smith will be as bad as he was in his first two seasons. With his new setup and approach, his foundation as a line drive hitter should help him limit his slumps and produce as a solid lineup contributor, if not the surprising offensive force he’s been this season.

When the Cardinals signed Brandon Crawford to a one-year, $2 million deal earlier this week, the first thing that popped into my mind was a two-word hashtag. I figured it wouldn’t be long before the Giants’ social media accounts would send out the same thing they always post in response to the departure of a franchise icon: #ForeverGiant.

Of course, #ForeverGiant is a public relations gimmick, a way for the organization to soften the blow for fans who are sad to see one of their favorite players retire or, worse, wearing another team’s uniform. Yet in the case of Crawford, who grew up a Giants fan in the Bay Area and who became the franchise’s all-time leader in games played at shortstop, those two words actually rang true. They weren’t a ploy; they were a promise.

That’s why Crawford’s leaving San Francisco is sad for many Giants fans and weird for the rest of us. But moving on from something and getting over it are not the same thing. It was time for the Giants to move on from Crawford, to let him go somewhere else, even if it wasn’t an easy decision. Read the rest of this entry »