DALLAS — What a week, huh? Juan Soto sparked the Winter Meetings on Sunday night when he agreed to sign with the Mets for 15 years, $765 million, some incentives, and one complementary suite instead of returning to the Yankees. The Yankees then pivoted on Tuesday and signed Max Fried to the largest contract ever for a lefty pitcher. Willy Adames signed with the Giants for way more than anyone expected. Oh, and the White Sox got in on the fun, too!

The Matrix was popping off, so much so that I couldn’t stop myself from pulling out my computer during dinner to update the Soto signing. As the great television detective Adrian Monk would say, “Here’s what happened.”

Free Agent Signings

Mets Sign Juan Soto for 15 Years, $765 Million

• Dan Szymborski’s InstaGraphs of the Deal
• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

The outfield in Queens would appear to be solidified now, with Brandon Nimmo in left, Soto in right, and Tyrone Taylor and Jose Siri splitting time in center. DH, for now at least, looks like Starling Marte’s job, but the Mets certainly are not done spending and could look to upgrade their offense here. They are still very much in the market to re-sign Pete Alonso, who would likely be their everyday first baseman but could also see more time at DH depending on what other moves they make. Third baseman Mark Vientos has made strides as a defender, but he could slide over to first base or get more starts at DH. The Mets could also look to sign someone for the DH job outright. For example, Joc Pederson would fit well as a platoon partner for Marte.

Effect on Other Teams

Many of the deals below wouldn’t have happened this week if Soto were still on the free agent market. The Yankees certainly wouldn’t have signed Fried to his contract if Soto had accepted their $760 million offer, and the Mets very well could have spent some of the Soto money elsewhere. The cascading effects of an offseason are on display most prominently during the Winter Meetings, with quick responses needed lest you lose out on a player.

Effect on Similar Players

Similar players? What similar players?

Yankees Sign Max Fried for Eight Years, $218 Million

• Dan Szymborski’s InstaGraphs of the Deal
• Jay Jaffe’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Yankees

The Yankees were aggressive in turning to Fried after losing Soto, and they now have a surplus of starting pitchers, at least in quantity if not aptitude. Gerrit Cole, Fried, and Carlos Rodón will fill out the top three spots in the rotation, with Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman, and Clarke Schmidt battling for the last two as of Friday afternoon. The Yankees could use one of them in a trade for either Cody Bellinger of the Cubs or Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals to improve their offense. Earlier Friday, the Yankees dealt another of their capable starters, Nestor Cortes, to the Brewers for one of the best relievers in baseball, Devin Williams (more on this trade later). If New York does decide to trade another starter, Gil (four years of club control) and Schmidt (three years) would be more valuable to other teams than Stroman.

Effect on Other Teams

Per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, the Rangers and Red Sox were the other two teams in on Fried until the very end. The Rangers quickly pivoted to bringing back Nathan Eovaldi (more on him below), and the Red Sox counterpunched with their trade for Garrett Crochet. According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, despite acquiring Crochet, the Red Sox are “still exploring” upgrades to their rotation, including Corbin Burnes.

Fried’s former team, the Braves, remain in the market for starting pitching, though it doesn’t look like they ever made much of an effort to retain the lefty. They haven’t had any known interest in Burnes, either, and they might even be too far apart from Charlie Morton, who should be modestly priced. Perhaps they reach for the bottom of the shelf for an arm like Martín Pérez, Spencer Turnbull, Joe Ross, or Patrick Corbin to add needed depth behind their solid front three of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, and Spencer Schwellenbach.

Effect on Similar Players

Burnes and agent Scott Boras have to be ecstatic after seeing Fried’s contract, as the lefty beat his median prediction (six years, $156 million) by nearly 40%. The same bump for Burnes’ median prediction (seven years, $217 million) would have him signing for over $300 million. Boras may well shoot for that number on a nine-year deal for Burnes, who’s a year younger than Fried.

Giants Sign Willy Adames for Seven Years, $182 Million

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Giants

The Giants needed a shortstop, and they couldn’t have done any better than Adames. His defense weirdly took a step back in 2024, but considering his performance before that, along with his reputation, I believe his struggles to be more of a one-season blip rather than the start of a troubling trend. While new president of baseball operations Buster Posey may make moves to improve the San Francisco offense — LaMonte Wade Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski could reportedly be had in trades — it’s a deep enough group. Upgrading the Giants’ pitching is a more pressing concern.

Effect on Other Teams

If you wanted to sign a starting shortstop to be in the Opening Day lineup, you only had one great option, and now you have zero. Ha-Seong Kim has a ton of upside, but his timetable is unclear after shoulder surgery. (He’s expected to miss at least April.) Jose Iglesias had excellent results bouncing around the infield for the Mets, but his xBA and xwOBA do not inspire confidence that he’ll keep it up. Paul DeJong has some pop and plays solid defense, but he is extremely streaky. All three of those guys will have no problem getting big league deals, but they’re not Adames.

Effect on Similar Players

There are no free agent shortstops of Adames’ caliber, so those available at the position shouldn’t look at his contract and say, “Hey, great for me! I want that!” Alex Bregman, on the other hand, can use Adames as a decent measuring stick. Bregman is two years older than Adames and plays a less premium position, but they had similar seasons on offense (Adames, 119 wRC+; Bregman, 118), and Bregman’s had a better career peak (though that can only take him so far).

Adames’ AAV but with five years instead of seven gives Bregman a solid minimum to target ($130 million). Fortunately for him, he’s already got an offer from his former team with an extra year tacked on. It stands to reason, then, that Bregman might well be shooting for Adames’ exact deal if not better, and you better believe Boras is going to try his hardest to get his client $200 million.

Rangers Re-Sign Nathan Eovaldi for Three Years, $75 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rangers

Eovaldi adds much-needed stability to a Rangers rotation that currently features Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Tyler Mahle, who combined for just 38 big league starts last year to Eovaldi’s 29. Kumar Rocker, Dane Dunning, Emiliano Teodo, and Jack Leiter are next in line, so perhaps the Rangers feel they’ve got enough to make it work and can now turn their attention to their bullpen.

Effect on Other Teams

The Braves were the other team with significant buzz regarding Eovaldi, though they haven’t shown much willingness to spend this offseason, so I doubt they came anywhere near the Rangers’ offer. Reuniting with Morton or signing another stable veteran like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson feels more in line with where the Braves are at right now, especially with Spencer Strider working his way back from internal brace surgery.

Effect on Similar Players

They’re both encumbered by qualifying offers, but Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea are both roughly in the same tier as Eovaldi, whose median contract prediction was two years for $45 million. Considering Eovaldi garnered a surprising third year, it isn’t out of the question that Pivetta would get a four-year deal. Meanwhile, Manaea looks to be in good position to beat Eovaldi’s AAV on a three- or four-year deal, with nine figures well within the realm of possibility.

Orioles Sign Tyler O’Neill (Three Years, $48.5 Million, with post-2025 Opt Out) and Gary Sánchez (One Year, $8.5 Million)

• Davy Andrews’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Orioles

If the Orioles make any further changes to their offense, they’ll likely have to subtract before they add. Heston Kjerstad looks plenty deserving of playing time, but he’s not currently on the projected roster. Trading either Ryan O’Hearn or Ryan Mountcastle would make sense, and it isn’t out of the question that they could trade Cedric Mullins — with Colton Cowser more than capable of handling center field — to free up a spot for Kjerstad in the corner outfield. Catcher is all set with Sánchez joining Adley Rutschman, eliminating the possibility of reunion with James McCann.

Effect on Other Teams

O’Neill’s injury history likely gave some teams pause and surely dampened his earnings, but on a rate basis, no free agent bat showed power as prodigious. In fact, he was fourth in the league in AB/HR among all 20-homer hitters. That’s not to say the options are sparse, though. Teoscar Hernández is coming off a fuller season than O’Neill, and historically he’s been much healthier. Anthony Santander, who almost surely won’t return to the Orioles with O’Neill in the fold, has big pop from both sides. They’ll cost more than O’Neill, who was in something of a class of his own among outfielders regarding his contract predictions. (O’Neill’s median prediction was three years and $40 million, which he beat handily, not to mention the opt-out.)

As for the catching market, it’s now pretty bare, with Carson Kelly reportedly closing in on a deal with the Cubs. Yasmani Grandal, Elias Díaz, and McCann are the three catchers left who have at least decent odds of securing an MLB deal.

Effect on Similar Players

While Santander and Hernández are in another class of player and contract prediction, they still both serve to benefit from O’Neill’s deal being better than expected, with an opt-out to boot. It might be tough for Santander to beat his median prediction of five years and $100.5 million by much, if at all, but Hernández ought to be aiming higher than three years, $70.5 million after seeing what O’Neill got. Jurickson Profar is another bat out there, and while he’s quite different from O’Neill, his contract predictions were similar. He may be able to get a fourth year or at least a heftier AAV on a three-year deal.

Mets Sign Clay Holmes for Three Years, $38 Million

• Jake Mailhot’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

The Mets lost three starting pitchers to free agency, with Luis Severino shipping off to Sacramento and Manaea and Jose Quintana still on the open market. They’ve filled two of those spots by signing Frankie Montas and Holmes, who is expected to transition from high-leverage reliever to starter. That leaves Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Paul Blackburn, and Tylor Megill as the only other healthy pitchers on the 40-man who started games this past season. Adding Holmes shouldn’t and won’t keep the Mets out of the starting pitching market, especially because they could use a six-man rotation to accommodate Senga’s schedule and limit Holmes’ innings. As noted on the Matrix in blue cells, the Mets have expressed interest in virtually every starter still out there.

Effect on Other Teams

Holmes’ pending conversion to the rotation puts teams in a weird spot; before he signed, some clubs considered the move as well, while others preferred to keep him in the bullpen. That means there aren’t many clean pivots for teams because their needs vary. The one comparable pitcher, though, is Jeff Hoffman. He is coming off a better relief season than Holmes, but he is also a candidate to move into a rotation, albeit with a very different profile from Holmes.

Effect on Similar Players

Holmes handily beat his median prediction of three years and $30 million and was able to secure an opt-out as well, good news for Hoffman if he too makes the move to the rotation. Hoffman, like Holmes, is entering his age-32 season, and comes with a slightly higher median contract prediction of three years and $33 million. Might he be able to get something like three years and $42 million with an opt out?

Guardians Sign Shane Bieber for Two Years, $26 Million (2026 player option)

• Leo Morgenstern’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Guardians

Immediately, there’s no real impact on the Guardians besides to their payroll. Bieber will miss the start of the season and could reasonably be out for the entire first half recovering from Tommy John surgery after making just two starts in 2024. The Guardians could perhaps use another healthy starter to team up with Tanner Bibee, Luis L. Ortiz, Ben Lively, and Gavin Williams in the season-opening rotation, though the club isn’t without options. Joey Cantillo, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, and Doug Nikhazy are others on the 40-man vying for starting spots, and Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson’s meteoric rise through the system could continue.

Effect on Other Teams

As with the Guardians, there should be no immediate impact here. Bieber took less money to stay in a familiar spot, with the Red Sox one such team who made a strong push. Bieber offers upside at a price affordable only because he got hurt.

Effect on Similar Players

There aren’t really any pitchers who can view Bieber’s contract as a model. He’ll be out for a good chunk of the season, plus he turned down more money to stick around. The two-years-including-a-player-option model is one that other rehabbing pitchers could look to follow, albeit on a lesser scale. John Means and Brooks Raley could endeavor to control their own 2026 fates with options, as could Patrick Sandoval, though he’d be under club control via arbitration even if he turned down such an option.

Dodgers Re-Sign Blake Treinen (Two Years, $22 Million), Sign Michael Conforto (One Year, $17 Million)

• Dan Szymborski’s Write-Up of the Deals
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Dodgers

The Dodgers still need another corner outfielder even with Conforto in the fold, and to that end, they’re still talking with Hernández, albeit with a gap in negotiations that may not be bridged. At any rate, I don’t think Andy Pages is going to enter the year as a starting outfielder, though he makes plenty of sense as an oft-playing bench bat.

As for the bullpen, the Dodgers aren’t simply looking to run back their championship bullpen core minus the retiring Daniel Hudson. Los Angeles is looking into signing Tanner Scott, the best lefty reliever available on the free agent market.

Effect on Other Teams

Righty relievers and lefty corner bats are always plentiful in free agency, but Treinen is arguably the nastiest of the bunch in the former group, and Conforto has a high ceiling for someone on a one-year deal. The Dodgers, along with other teams, were surely intrigued by Conforto’s 133 wRC+ away from the hitter-unfriendly Oracle Park, hence the hefty price for the pillow contract.

Effect on Similar Players

The old-but-still-nasty group of free agent relievers is strong even with Treinen and Aroldis Chapman off the board: Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Andrew Kittredge, and Chris Martin are all 35 or older. At least some of the younger members of that group (Robertson and Martin are likely year-to-year at this point) could be in line for multi-year deals at or around Treinen’s average-annual value, with Kahnle and Kittredge sure to be cheaper and Yates likely to be more expensive.

Bounce-back lefty bats are fewer and farther between, but one player who ought to be pleased by Conforto’s contract is Max Kepler. Kepler had an injury-riddled season in which he hit just eight homers across 399 plate appearances, but his last great season (2023) was more recent than Conforto’s (2020), and he’s a better fielder, too. The Dodgers may well have blown everyone out of the water just to sign Conforto, but Kepler’s contract could still beat his median prediction of $11 million.

Tigers Sign Alex Cobb (One Year, $15 Million); Blue Jays Sign Yimi García (Two Years, $15 Million); Phillies Sign Jordan Romano (One Year, $8.5 Million)

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Cobb/García Deals
• Baumann’s Write-Up of the Romano Deal
• Updated Tigers Roster Projection
• Updated Tigers Payroll Projection
• Updated Blue Jays Roster Projection
• Updated Blue Jays Payroll Projection
• Updated Phillies Roster Projection
• Updated Phillies Payroll Projection

Effect on the Signing Teams

Baumann was our resident “write about all the pitchers who ended the season injured” guy, apparently. All three ended the season hurt, and all signed for more than I thought they would. If healthy, the’ll all add much-needed stability to their new teams. Cobb will give the Tigers another “real” starter to avoid using Tyler Holton to start every other day, Romano will help cover for the potential loss of Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, and García will help backfill a bullpen that lost Romano. The Tigers may feel content with their starting pitching options at the moment, but the Blue Jays and Phillies probably have more work to do to augment the relief corps.

Effect on Other Teams

This is just what pitching costs now, apparently. If teams hadn’t recalibrated already, now’s the time to do so. Maybe waiting things out will lead to some bargain-basement prices on lower-upside pitchers, but you’re not going to find great stuff for just a couple million bucks, injury concerns be damned.

Effect on Similar Players

Remaining pitchers coming off injury-riddled or injury-shortened seasons include starters Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Williams, and Spencer Turnbull; and relievers A.J. Minter, Joe Kelly, and Danny Coulombe. They all are of varying levels of upside, but based on how the pitching market is shaping up, they should be expected to command more than we initially expected.

Rockies Sign Thairo Estrada (One Year, $4 Million); White Sox Sign Mike Tauchman (One Year, $1.95 Million)

• Updated Rockies Roster Projection
• Updated Rockies Payroll Projection
• Updated White Sox Roster Projection
• Updated White Sox Payroll Projection

Effect on the Signing Teams

Tauchman will step into the White Sox’ starting lineup, at least against righties; he’s a natural platoon partner for the righty-swinging Austin Slater, and his OBP skills work great atop a thin lineup. Estrada should be Colorado’s starting second baseman, sliding the newly acquired Kyle Farmer to a utility role.

Effect on Other Teams

Plenty of players from the bargain bin are still available; teams won’t be losing sleep over missing out on Tauchman and Estrada, even with their upside.

Effect on Similar Players

This was roughly what I expected these two to get after they were cut loose by their old teams, so this isn’t a needle-mover for the market.

Yankees Re-Sign Jonathan Loáisiga (One Year, $TBD, with 2026 club option); Rangers sign Jacob Webb (One Year, $1.25 Million)

• Updated Yankees Roster Projection
• Updated Yankees Payroll Projection
• Updated Rangers Roster Projection
• Updated Rangers Payroll Projection

Effect on the Signing Teams

I grouped these two together not because they’re similar pitchers, but because their two teams are in similar situations. These two righties won’t be the last or best relief additions that either team makes, with each team losing three key relievers to the free agent pool. In fact, the Yankees made a bigger splash on Friday, when they traded with the Brewers for Williams. More on that later.

Effect on Other Teams

Little effect on the Yankees and Rangers also means there’s little effect on the other 28 teams. There are still relievers aplenty on the free agent board.

Effect on Similar Players

But, because Loáisiga had plenty of suitors, some of those relievers could sign in quick succession as teams pivot to other options on the market.

Trades

Red Sox Acquire Garrett Crochet From White Sox for Four Prospects

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of The Deal
• Updated Red Sox Roster Projection
• Updated Red Sox Payroll Projection
• Updated White Sox Roster Projection
• Updated White Sox Payroll Projection

Where the Red Sox Go From Here

The top three pitchers in the Red Sox’ rotation have some of the best stuff of any triad in the majors, and Kutter Crawford is a nice fourth starter to have despite his homer problem. There’s not great depth beyond that, though. Richard Fitts had a nice first four starts but didn’t miss bats, Lucas Giolito’s return date from elbow surgery is uncertain, and Cooper Criswell is probably best deployed as a swingman who never faces more than 18 hitters. To that end, Burnes is still on the table for Boston, and if not Burnes, the Red Sox could look to add a lower-tier option to fill a spot.

Where the White Sox Go From Here

Crochet was by far the biggest trade chip, but the White Sox are not without players who could be of interest to other teams. Luis Robert Jr. could be on the move before the offseason is over, even though he’s coming off the worst year of his career and is at the nadir of his value. They’d surely love to unload the last three years of Andrew Benintendi’s contract, but after he had a strong second half, the Sox would have to eat quite a bit of cash to facilitate a deal. Andrew Vaughn could also be of interest to other teams. From there, they could round out the roster with some sign-and-flip candidates.

Cubs Acquire Kyle Tucker for Isaac Paredes, Two Others

• Updated Cubs Roster Projection
• Updated Cubs Payroll Projection
• Updated Astros Roster Projection
• Updated Astros Payroll Projection

Where the Cubs Go From Here

The natural move for the Cubs is to clear the outfield logjam by trading Bellinger, and I’d guess that they’re confident in their ability to do that with Tucker in the fold. Pete Crow-Armstrong was too good down the stretch to relegate to the bench, and Seiya Suzuki’s no-trade clause complicates his availability, plus he’s easily the best righty bat on the team. They could also look into a third base stopgap until Matt Shaw is ready. Yoán Moncada, Gio Urshela, and Paul DeJong would all come cheap.

Where the Astros Go From Here

No, I don’t think Taylor Trammell is actually going to be the Astros’ Opening Day right fielder, as we currently have projected. The Astros are operating under some payroll constraints but just saved about $9 million by replacing Tucker with Paredes, and they could reinvest that money into a one-year deal for Max Kepler or Alex Verdugo. I’d be surprised if the Astros brought Bregman back with Paredes in the fold, though the latter could slide over to first base and replace Jon Singleton if Bregman returns.

Andrés Giménez to Blue Jays, Spencer Horwitz to Pirates, Luis L. Ortiz to Guardians in Not-Quite-Three-Team Trade

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of Giménez to Toronto and Horwitz to Pittsburgh
• Updated Blue Jays Roster Projection
• Updated Blue Jays Payroll Projection
• Updated Pirates Roster Projection
• Updated Pirates Payroll Projection
• Updated Guardians Roster Projection
• Updated Guardians Payroll Projection

Where the Blue Jays Go From Here

Toronto has majorly upgraded its defense at the expense of its offense, so the natural action here is to explore another move (or two, or three, or…) that would augment a lineup that isn’t exactly a threat besides Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a theoretical return to form for Bo Bichette. The Jays have expressed interest in Bregman and Santander along with some more complementary bats on the market like Gleyber Torres.

Where the Pirates Go From Here

The Pirates desperately need offense this offseason, and while Horwitz is a nice get, they still should add more hitters. Having Isiah Kiner-Falefa as their leadoff batter on Opening Day, as we currently project, would be somewhere between “not ideal” and “organizational malpractice.” A reunion with Andrew McCutchen makes all the sense in the world, but that’s more of a depth move. It would behoove the Pirates to take a big swing at a big swinger to support a solid pitching staff. Santander, Teoscar Hernández, and Christian Walker each would be transformative.

Where the Guardians Go From Here

As far as a direct response to this trade is concerned, the Guards really don’t need to make one. Cleveland is teeming with infield depth and can simply use someone like Angel Martínez or Juan Brito to keep the seat warm for the eventual arrival of this year’s first overall pick Travis Bazzana. Ortiz lessens the team’s need in the rotation, too, with four spots now looking to be in pretty good shape and Triston McKenzie out of options.

Yankees Acquire Devin Williams From Brewers for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin

• Updated Yankees Roster Projection
• Updated Yankees Payroll Projection
• Updated Brewers Roster Projection
• Updated Pirates Payroll Projection

Where the Yankees Go From Here

Williams and Luke Weaver give the Yankees a great one-two punch in the back end of their bullpen, but they shouldn’t be done adding relief arms. We currently project New York’s bullpen to be all right-handed, so a reunion with Tim Hill would make a lot of sense. If they wanted to form probably the league’s most formidable bullpen trio, they could go big and sign Tanner Scott.

Durbin had been penciled in as the Yankees’ starting second baseman, and losing him increases the need for his former club to acquire another infielder. They’ve shown interest in third baseman Bregman, whose addition would slide Jazz Chisholm Jr. over to second, and they still desperately need to upgrade at first base; they’re reportedly in the market for Walker and Alonso. They could also re-sign Torres to play second, with Chisholm remaining at third.

Where the Brewers Go From Here

Barring any other trades (like shedding Aaron Civale’s $8 million projected salary, for example), the Brewers have to be feeling pretty good about their rotation. Cortes joins Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Civale, and Tobias Myers in the starting five, with DL Hall, Aaron Ashby, Connor Thomas, and top prospect Jacob Misiorowski around as rotation depth.

Durbin will help out in the infield and is currently projected to platoon with Oliver Dunn at third, though both players are unproven, and Durbin has yet to make his MLB debut. Milwaukee has expressed interest in Ha-Seong Kim, who will miss the start of the season but has more upside than any of the team’s current infielders.

Rangers Get Jake Burger in Trade With Marlins for Three Prospects

• Michael Baumann’s Write-Up of the Trade
• Updated Rangers Roster Projection
• Updated Rangers Payroll Projection
• Updated Marlins Roster Projection
• Updated Marlins Payroll Projection

Where the Rangers Go From Here

On the surface, the Rangers have too many hitters for nine spots, with Kyle Higashioka, Josh Smith, and Leody Taveras all starting-caliber but currently projected on the bench. However, there are legitimate concerns with the health of Evan Carter coming off back surgery, Josh Jung after two wrist surgeries, and Corey Seager after hernia surgery. Burger provides needed insurance on the infield corners as well as at DH. Roster redundancy is only a problem if everyone is healthy and performing, and that’s rarely the case for any team.

Where the Marlins Go From Here

This doesn’t necessarily portend further gutting by Peter Bendix and company, with Bendix expressing a desire to give playing time to upstart youngsters like Deyvison De Los Santos and Agustin Ramirez. Jesús Sánchez could be of interest to other teams if Miami wants to open some outfield playing time for less experienced players.

Biggest Rumors of the Week

• The Tucker trade should shape Bregman’s market, as he might be the next big free agent to come off the board. Houston’s acquisition of Paredes in that deal likely closes off the chance of a reunion with Bregman, who has other teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays) interested in him.

• A big week for starting pitcher signings leaves Burnes as the best remaining free agent by far, and he too may be nearing a decision. If the Blue Jays and Giants are indeed the favorites and one of them signs him, he’d be joining a team coming off a disappointing season but looking to turn things around quickly.

For the last six offseasons, I’ve spent (too) much of my time compiling my Offseason Matrices Google doc, a project that Davy Andrews so kindly described as “a work of absolute madness.”

The document has evolved hugely since its first iteration in the 2018-19 offseason, with more tabs, better formatting and color-coding, linking to sources, and many more improvements to make it more user friendly and comprehensive. Now, in this weekly article, I’ll be running down the latest updates, talking through how the latest signings and trades have had downstream effects on the team that actually acquired the player, as well as others who didn’t. The goal here isn’t to rehash every move that happens; that’s what the initial FanGraphs coverage was for! Rather, my aim is to add some additional context and comments and summarize how the landscape of the offseason has changed with the moves. After all, that’s what all the color-coding on the Matrix is for.

Biggest Rumors of the Week

• Juan Soto appears to be getting closer to a decision, with at most five teams still in the (known) running: the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Mystery teams are always possible, I suppose, but now that the bidding has reportedly hit $600 million, I highly doubt it. Soto has begun to eliminate teams, though we’re not sure which teams are out and how many remain. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, we’re expected to know Soto’s destination by the beginning of the Winter Meetings on Monday at the latest.

• The Yankees appear to be preparing for life after Soto, though they certainly hope it won’t come to that. They reportedly have met with free agent starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, and could push hard to sign infielder Willy Adames if Soto leaves. On the trade side of things, they’ve showed interest in Cubs outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger to replace Soto as a lefty bat in the middle of the lineup. Bellinger could also fill their opening at first base and might be an option even if Soto returns. Speaking of first base options, earlier in the offseason, the Yankees checked in on Pete Alonso and were one of the teams to express interest in Christian Walker.

• Trader Jerry is at it again, with Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reporting that the Mariners have had preliminary discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and the Cubs about Nico Hoerner. Teams will have conversations with dozens of free agents and about dozens of trade targets, so don’t draw any conclusions about these specific players just yet. However, these two nuggets signal that Jerry Dipoto is looking to upgrade at third base and second base, perhaps aggressively. Also, big ups to Dave Dombrowski for reportedly asking for Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in exchange for Bohm.

• Korean second baseman Hye-seong Kim has officially been posted for MLB clubs, and he now has until 5 p.m. EST on January 3 to reach a deal. He’s was already linked to the Mariners pre-posting, and other teams should surely follow now that he’s officially available. Eric Longenhagen has him graded as a 40 FV player who may not have a ton of upside but should represent a relatively low-cost option. Ha-Seong Kim (no relation, though they did play together in Korea) signed for four years and $28 million when he came stateside before the 2021 season, and Hye-seong should end up around there.

A’s Sign Luis Severino for Three Years, $67 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the A’s

Well folks, we’ve got our first true “he signed WHERE???” of the offseason. The A’s are showing they’re at least somewhat-committed to fielding a more competitive team in 2025. Plus, $67 million for Severino is also a strong indication that it might take something of a premium to lure players to a minor-league ballpark for any length of time, especially a player like Severino. This’ll almost certainly be the largest deal the A’s sign this offseason, but for the first time in a few years, you don’t have to squint too hard to see the makings of a decent team.

Effect on Other Teams

I’m not sure how many other suitors Severino had, nor do I know how many of them had the A’s on their radar as potentially vying for him alongside them. Whatever the case may be, such teams are going to turn their attention to similar pitchers, perhaps others with qualifying offers attached, such as Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea, or an unencumbered pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi.

Effect on Similar Players

Those similar guys I just mentioned are probably doing cartwheels after learning Severino signed for $23 million a year. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN had the highest contract prediction (on the Total Spending Projection tab) for Severino of the ones I was able to aggregate, and he was low by $8.5 million. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Pivetta, Manaea, and Eovaldi will sign for many millions more than expected, but one fewer pitcher on the board — signed by an unexpected team, no less — should increase demand for those three.

Mets Sign Frankie Montas for Two Years, $34 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Mets

This doesn’t close off the Mets from adding to their rotation; they’ve still got at least two rotation spots to fill, with Kodai Senga joining Montas and likely David Peterson as locks for the starting five. This move should also solidify José Buttó as a reliever, even if he’s stretched out during spring training.

Effect on Other Teams

Might this get rivals calling about Paul Blackburn? We know the Mets need as many starters as they can get, but Blackburn has fallen further down the depth chart with the Montas addition, and his going on the IL for leaking spinal fluid meant the Mets couldn’t evaluate him much after acquiring him from the A’s at the trade deadline.

Effect on Similar Players

Montas’ snagging $34 million over two years (with an opt out!) seemed to help out Matthew Boyd (more on him later), and that $17 million average annual value ought to be good news for similarly ranked players like Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, and Michael Lorenzen. I think Montas will outdo all of those guys in AAV, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see most of them beat their median contract prediction, which you can find on the Total Spending Projection tab.

Cubs Sign Matthew Boyd for Two Years, $14.5 Million

• Michael Baumann’s Write-up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Cubs

Likelier than not, the Boyd addition will end the Cubs’ pursuit of starting pitching, at least when it comes to adding other mid-tier arms. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Boyd should all be guaranteed starting jobs, and I think the Cubs would only bump Javier Assad if they were able to land a true impact starter like Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, or Jack Flaherty.

Effect on Other Teams

Like Blackburn with the Mets, Assad could end up as a trade target for teams in need of starting pitching depth, though I’m not sure how willing the Cubs would be to part with him. As I said, I think Assad has a leg up on the competition for the fifth starter spot. However, perhaps the Cubs would be more likely to trade him if he were part of a deal to land a better starter, such as the aforementioned Crochet. Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski are now on the outside looking in for rotation spots. Despite Chicago’s strong depth, as a rule, I generally don’t mark teams’ columns on the FA Matrix with maroon cells (denoting filled positions) for pitchers, since you can never have too many.

Effect on Similar Players

Mid-rotation arms are getting paid this winter!

Red Sox Sign Aroldis Chapman for One Year, $10.75 Million

• Michael Baumann’s Write-up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Red Sox

The Red Sox entered the offseason with quite a lot of work to do in their bullpen. That said, Boston has to be pretty comfortable with its lefties now that Chapman and Justin Wilson are in the fold. Brennan Bernardino and Cam Booser are also on the 40-man.

Effect on Other Teams

We don’t know of any other teams who were interested in Chapman, but with clearly the second-best lefty reliever off the board, there’s now a big chasm between big fish Tanner Scott and the rest of the lefties for teams looking to add a southpaw. Besides Scott, there’s also Scott Alexander, Ryan Yarbrough, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, Jalen Beeks, and Hoby Milner, among others. Plenty of interesting names there, but only Chapman has the high-octane gas that Scott also possesses.

Effect on Similar Players

That $10.75 million is a healthy contract for Chapman, and it should set a good target for veteran high-leverage arms outside of the big four of Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Clay Holmes, and Carlos Estévez. Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, and David Robertson should all be aiming for at least $10 million.

Rangers Sign Kyle Higashioka for Two Years, $12.5 Million

• Davy Andrews’ Write-up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rangers

The Heim-Higashioka timeshare takes the Rangers out of the catcher market for the rest of the offseason. (Their column now has maroon cells for all catchers who should get MLB deals.) It also gives them an obvious trade chip in Sam Huff, who’s hit well in limited MLB opportunities for the past four years, but has never been highly regarded behind the dish.

Effect on Other Teams

Huff’s entry onto the trade block somewhat offsets the inability for other teams to sign Higashioka, though again, Huff probably isn’t a catcher and certainly doesn’t have the reputation Higgy has back there. The catcher market is the one position player group that’s moved quickly in free agency; Higashioka, Jacob Stallings, Austin Hedges, Danny Jansen, and Travis d’Arnaud are now all off the board. Carson Kelly, Yasmani Grandal, Gary Sánchez, Elias Díaz, and James McCann are the best options left.

Effect on Similar Players

Of those best options I just mentioned, Kelly is the only option left who strikes me as likely to sign a multi-year deal. Higashioka essentially matched his median contract prediction of two years and $14 million, signing for just $500,000 less. That’s a helpful data point for Kelly, whose median prediction is two years at $14 million.

Rays Sign Danny Jansen for One Year, $8.5 Million

• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Rays

Along with the Rangers, the Rays now have their catcher timeshare settled for 2025, with the lefty-hitting Ben Rortvedt and lefty-mashing Jansen forming a natural platoon. For $8.5 million, Jansen could get plenty of run against righties, too, but Rortvedt should play more than a typical backup even if he’s relegated to that role. The Rays already lost René Pinto off waivers to the Orioles, so Logan Driscoll will be down in Triple-A as the top depth option.

Effect on Other Teams

If you want a catcher, options are dwindling quickly. If none of the backstops I mentioned in the Higashioka section sound particularly enticing, maybe call the Pirates and ask about Jason Delay or Henry Davis, or talk to the Phillies about Rafael Marchán or Garrett Stubbs.

Effect on Similar Players

Jansen’s contract ended up being worse than expected; his median contract prediction was two years and $18 million, so he didn’t even match the AAV. This might read as bad news for Kelly, but I think Kelly is closer to Higashioka than he is to Jansen. Kelly has a strong defensive reputation and is also coming off a better season, whereas Jansen has a concerning injury history and had a rough 2023 campaign.

RosterResource doesn’t stop for anything, not even great postseason play. We’ve already begun to roll out the team Depth Charts for 2025, with more set to go live in the coming days. Our Free Agent Tracker launched earlier this month. And now, the 2025 Payroll Pages are here!

The Payroll Pages will default to the 2025 view after the World Series, but for now, clicking over from a team page will take you to 2024. To view the 2025 page, simply change the Season toggle:

In case you’re new to the Payroll Pages, let’s go over what you can find on them. Read the rest of this entry »

One year after they missed the playoffs in maddening fashion, the Padres are advancing to the National League Division Series after holding on to beat the Braves, 5-4, in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series on Wednesday night at Petco Park.

If Game 1 of this series was a beautiful ballet choreographed by San Diego starter Michael King, with a result that was never in doubt, then Game 2 was a far more uncertain thriller.

Atlanta struck first, when leadoff batter Michael Harris II smoked a first-pitch double down the right field line, advanced to third on a groundout, and scored on a sacrifice fly. Then the Padres came to bat against Braves lefty Max Fried, and things looked like they were about to get out of hand.

San Diego loaded the bases on back-to-back singles by Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr. and a Jurickson Profar chopper in front of the mound — Fried fielded it but his throw to second was late and everyone was safe — before Fried buckled down. He struck out Manny Machado, got Jackson Merrill to ground into a 3-2 fielder’s choice, and induced a grounder to short by Xander Bogaerts to get out of the inning without allowing a run.

This was when I thought Fried was going to have one of those postseason starts. Escaping a bases-loaded, no-out jam unscathed is one of the most difficult things to do as a pitcher, and dang it, Fried did it in the very first inning against San Diego’s 4-5-6 hitters. The adage is that you’ve got to get to great pitchers before they can settle in, and the Padres almost did that in the first. Additionally, Fried actually looked sharp despite those three baserunners; none of the balls in play left the infield. A great early narrative was brewing in San Diego, with momentum temporarily favoring the Braves.

There was one problem, though. Fried avoided trouble, but he couldn’t avoid the 99.8-mph liner that Tatis ripped off the pitcher’s hip/butt area.

Braves manager Brian Snitker told ESPN’s Buster Olney during the game that the area in which Fried got hit was bothering him, perhaps contributing to the pitcher’s unraveling. The Padres took a different tack in the second inning, when they lulled Fried into a false sense of security by making the first two outs in quick succession before laying the hammer down. Kyle Higashioka homered to tie it, and then all hell broke loose. Fried allowed three straight singles to load the bases before Machado lined a two-run double into the left field corner. Next up was Merrill, who tripled over Harris’ head in straightaway center to plate two more runs. In a 15-pitch span, the Padres went from trailing by one to leading by four.

MERRILL MADNESS!

The rookie comes through with a 2-run triple ? pic.twitter.com/GTdlyCLMbz

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

This game was far from over, though, especially because Padres starter Joe Musgrove left the game with two outs in the fourth with an injury of his own. Two slower-than-usual curveballs prompted an eagle-eyed Higashioka to visit his pitcher on the mound, followed by the pitching coach, manager, and trainer. Musgrove shook his arm out in obvious discomfort, and the injury update was indeed among the most ominous possible: right elbow tightness.

Turning to any bullpen for 16 outs is far from ideal, but it should be an easier pill to swallow for the Padres, who bolstered their relief corps in late July; just before the trade deadline, they acquired Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from the Marlins and Jason Adam from the Rays. And following King’s seven-inning gem on Tuesday, everyone in San Diego’s bullpen was rested and ready to go. This game wasn’t exactly over, but the Padres certainly had the advantage, especially because Atlanta’s bullpen was running on fumes.

And yet, the Braves relievers were the ones who silenced the Padres, not the other way around. Dylan Lee, Daysbel Hernández, Pierce Johnson, and Joe Jiménez kept Atlanta in the game and set up an exciting finish as San Diego’s bullpen stumbled.

Hoeing replaced the injured Musgrove, got four key outs, and then gave up a 600-foot home run to Jorge Soler. (Please note that my distance estimate is indisputable, as Statcast didn’t register a distance or exit velocity for the ball.)

Jorge Soler hit this baseball to a different universe ? #Postseason pic.twitter.com/Ww7RB3r3bw

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

After the home run, Hoeing retired the next three Braves batters in the fifth before manager Mike Shildt called on Jeremiah Estrada to start the sixth. Estrada had a 28.2% strikeout rate this season, but he clearly didn’t have his best stuff on Wednesday. He allowed two singles, recorded two hard-hit outs, and got just three whiffs on 16 swings. Shildt replaced Estrada with the left-handed Scott to face lefty slugger Matt Olson with runners on the corners and two outs in a three-run game. The Atlanta cleanup hitter lined out to left field to end the inning. Scott pitched a scoreless seventh inning, but he was a bit shaky; only eight of his 24 pitches were in the strike zone.

Facing Adam after Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia singled to lead off the eighth, Harris jumped on the first pitch again, this time launching it over the center field wall for a two-run homer.

MONEY MIKE BRINGS THE @BRAVES WITHIN A RUN! pic.twitter.com/bQ7ACpECRJ

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

That blast energized the Braves dugout to a level unseen over the first 16 innings of the series; if you’re a believer in momentum, it certainly lay squarely in the visitor’s dugout at this point.

But if momentum exists at all, it sometimes exists to only be wiped away, to give a false sense of hope, to create wishes for a longer fall before the harshness of winter and the offseason sets in. Adam and closer Robert Suarez hunkered down to retire the next six Braves. After beating the Mets to clinch a playoff berth in the final regular-season game on Monday, Atlanta’s season ended on Wednesday.

Maybe swift disappointment was the only way it could end, emblematic of a trying season for Snitker’s ballclub. The Braves hoped that Spencer Strider’s elbow injury wouldn’t be too serious, only to learn that he’d need season-ending internal brace surgery. They hoped that Ronald Acuña Jr. would miss about a month or so, only to hear that he’d suffered the second torn ACL of his career and would be out for the season. They hoped Austin Riley would be back for the playoffs after breaking his hand in August, only to find out that he’d require more recovery time. And, most recently, they hoped Cy Young frontrunner Chris Sale would be on the mound for them this October, only to discover his back had flared up and he wouldn’t be able to pitch in the Wild Card Series.

All that hope will now turn to 2025, when the injured players are expected to return and bring the rejuvenated nucleus together once again. Hopefully, anyway.

As for the Padres, they’ll ride this series sweep to Los Angeles, where they’ll face off against their rival Dodgers in the best-of-five NLDS. San Diego outperformed the Dodgers in the season series, and even if Musgrove’s injury keeps him off the mound, the Padres’ pitchers are significantly healthier than the Dodgers’ staff. And because the Wild Card Series ended in just two games, San Diego can start ace Dylan Cease in Saturday’s Game 1. Then, the Padres would have Yu Darvish or King on short rest for Game 2, with the other one getting the nod in Tuesday’s Game 3.

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

Games 163 will never happen as long as this current playoff format exists. Tiebreakers will be decided by head-to-head and then intraleague records, no matter how much Michael Baumann doesn’t want them to be. Team Entropy is dead. And so, we’ll know by the end of the weekend who’s going to be in the playoffs, and with what seeding — in the American League, anyway. We’ll get to the scheduling debacle in the National League in a moment.

Here’s what’s still left to be decided entering the final weekend of the regular season:

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

If you’ve read even a couple installments of this column, you know that roster changes are my favorite things in baseball. Free agents, trades, extensions, IL stints… I don’t really care; they’re all interesting and fun to follow! My love for such machinations isn’t limited to players, though. I’m also a big fan of managerial and coaching changes, so much so that I have a personal Excel workbook that contains nothing but a list of the current coaching staffs.

So, now that we’ve reached the point of the season when the managerial carousel starts spinning — David Bell’s firing by the Reds on Sunday was the latest move — this is a great time to look over who teams could have on their candidate lists. At least three teams will be in the hunt for managers: the White Sox, Reds, and Marlins. Miami hasn’t officially moved on from Skip Schumaker, but he’s already discussing his tenure in the past tense. Teams with a managerial vacancy almost always cast a wide net, so I’ll do the same in running down some options. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

Welcome to the second (and final) installment of the critically acclaimed “Previewing the Option Decisions” series. I covered the National League on Tuesday, and today we’ll have the American League sequel. Let’s get to it.

Baltimore Orioles

Mike Elias and his front office have five (!) club options to decide upon, but most of the choices are going to be easy ones. Eloy Jiménez, who has been a platoon bat since coming over from the White Sox, is going to have his $16.5 million option turned down; Seranthony Domínguez ($8 million), Danny Coulombe ($4 million), and Cionel Pérez ($2.2 million) will all have their options exercised to beef up the bullpen behind returning closer Félix Bautista. (Pérez is eligible for arbitration for two more seasons even if his option is declined.)

The one fascinating call will be what to do about Ryan O’Hearn, who has a $7.5 million club option for next season. Just a couple of months ago, exercising the option looked like a no-brainer. At the end of July, O’Hearn was hitting .273/.344/.457 (128 wRC+) while starting at first base or in right field against righties. Since then, he’s held onto his strong-side platoon role, but his season has taken a turn for the worse. O’Hearn is batting just .209/.283/.296, which works out to an anemic 70 wRC+, across 127 plate appearances since the beginning of August. Considering he provides little value in the field or on the bases, O’Hearn needs to break out of his slump soon to show the Orioles he’s worth keeping around. Baltimore has enough in-house talent to replace O’Hearn; even if Anthony Santander leaves in free agency, the O’s could roll with Coby Mayo at first, Heston Kjerstad in right, and Ryan Mountcastle at DH. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

After taking a look at the qualifying offer decisions that have to be made shortly after the conclusion of the World Series, I figured now would be as good a time as any to run down the team and player option decisions. We’ll start with the National League, with the American League following on Friday. Here’s what’s on the table. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

Tight playoff races, milestone and award chases, and looking ahead to the offseason — these are the things I love about September baseball. One of the first decisions to be made after the World Series is determining who will receive qualifying offers, which currently projects to be valued at $21.2 million.

As a quick reminder before we continue, the qualifying offer is set at a price of the mean average annual value of the 125 highest-AAV players in the league. Once it’s offered to a player, he has 10 days to decide whether to accept or decline the offer. If the player accepts, he’s locked into 2025 at that salary, though he can always negotiate a contract extension that may override the qualifying offer. If the player declines and signs with a new team, his new team will forfeit at least one 2025 draft pick, and his old team will receive exactly one ’25 draft pick.

With less than three weeks left in the regular season, let’s run through which pending free agents could be getting qualifying offers come November.

Locks to Receive Qualifying Offers

These decisions are all straightforward. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Max Fried, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, Teoscar Hernández, and Sean Manaea (once he exercises his opt out) are all having seasons somewhere between strong and elite. They’re all sure to reject the offer in favor of longer-term deals.

Likely to Receive, Plausible to Accept

Paul Goldschmidt is a tough act to follow, but Christian Walker has done well since taking over for him after the Diamondbacks traded Goldschmidt to the Cardinals in December 2018. Walker has been especially great the last three years, with 10.9 WAR, a 122 wRC+, and excellent defense at first base. He’s not spectacular, but he’s very good, and if the Diamondbacks are fine with running a record payroll again, they’d be wise to keep him around.

Walker’s got one big drawback, though: his age. Next year will be his age-34 season, and while he’d certainly like to earn a multi-year deal in free agency, the qualifying offer might tamp down his market to the point that accepting it would net him more money in 2025. He also might not want to risk rejecting it, hanging out on the open market for months, and then having to sign a prove-it deal. He’s a core member of a team that went to the World Series last year, is almost certainly going to return to the playoffs again this season, and is built to contend next year, too. Additionally, he seems comfortable in the desert. For all of these reasons, he is probably the player most likely to return to his team on a qualifying offer.

Likely to Receive, Likely to Reject

Tyler O’Neill has popped 30 home runs in his best and healthiest season since 2021, with his wRC+ just one point away from tying that career year. On the surface, that makes him seem like a slam dunk to receive the qualifying offer, and a slam dunk to reject it. He’s entering his age-30 season, and coming off his strong performance this year, he could look to get a three- or four-year deal on the open market. The one thing that gives me pause, though, is O’Neill’s injury history and how that might influence teams’ willingness to offer him a multi-year deal worth an average annual value of roughly $20 million. Understanding this, if the Red Sox give O’Neill the qualifying offer, he could decide it’s in his best interest to accept it. Meanwhile, Boston might not want to pay him $22.1 million next year, instead opting to use that money to bolster other areas of its roster. I still think the Red Sox will extend him a qualifying offer, and that he will turn it down, but it’s not a sure thing.

There’s an argument to be made that Michael Wacha is having the best season of his career; it’s definitely his healthiest since 2017. Provided he avoids injury the rest of the way, he’ll eschew his $16 million player option in favor of hitting the open market once again, leaving the Royals with a tough decision. On the one hand, this version of Wacha is worth $22.1 million; on the other, the injury concerns don’t just go away just because he’s been mostly healthy this year. As unlikely as Wacha would be to accept, the Royals might also prefer to eliminate any chance that he’d do so and instead allocate that money to lengthen their lineup. Having a rotation anchored by Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo would make losing Wacha an easier pill to swallow.

Total Toss-Ups

If Ha-Seong Kim had reached free agency before this season instead of after it, he probably would have earned a deal of at least $100 million following his 4.3 WAR, 110 wRC+ campaign in 2023. But right shoulder inflammation could keep him on the sidelines for the rest of the season, and his run values as a hitter, fielder, and baserunner have all gone down considerably in 2024. That said, even in this down year, he’s put up 2.6 WAR and is still only 28; that is probably worth $22.1 million. However, considering the Padres have a glut of infielders already, they may not want to give Kim the option to accept a qualifying offer.

Luis Severino is having his healthiest season since 2018, when he put up 5.4 WAR across 191 1/3 innings, made the All-Star team, and received Cy Young votes as the ace of the Yankees. But he’s a completely different pitcher now than he was then. His velocity is still there, but he no longer has the swing-and-miss stuff to anchor a rotation. Even with the Mets expected to lose two other starters to free agency, I don’t think they’d want to pay him the salary of a no. 2 starter when, at this point, he profiles more like a no. 3 or 4.

There may be no starter in the league more enigmatic than Nick Pivetta. The stuff has always been great, but the command has been … less so. I’m of the opinion that he’d do surprisingly well on the open market, and in my head I’m comparing him to Yusei Kikuchi, who got three years and $36 million from the Blue Jays coming off a similarly uneven (and probably worse) few years. But the Red Sox already have Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Lucas Giolito (assuming he recovers well from internal brace surgery) locked into next year’s rotation, and they may invest the $22.1 million elsewhere.

Unlikely to Receive

For other teams, I’d say that it would be a no-brainer to extend Shane Bieber a qualifying offer, but $22.1 million is a lot of money for the Guardians. If Bieber were to accept it, he could represent 20% or more of their payroll for 2025, and he might not be available until the second half of the season anyway after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. Considering his track record and how well he pitched in his first couple starts of the season, a multi-year deal at a lower average annual value — with the cash backloaded pretty heavily — should be easy for Bieber to secure.

There aren’t any pending free agent relievers with the pedigree of Josh Hader, who was an obvious qualifying offer recipient and rejector last offseason. Clay Holmes started his season pitching like he’d end up receiving one, but he’s lost his closer job and has probably worn out his welcome in New York, frankly. On the other side of the coin is Jeff Hoffman, who’s been nothing short of excellent for two seasons in Philadelphia. But he’s entering his age-32 season and doesn’t have nearly the track record of other relievers who have received qualifying offers in the past. I’d be shocked if he gets one.

Ineligible to Receive

As a reminder, players who’ve appeared for multiple teams in the same season are ineligible to be tendered a qualifying offer. That eliminates Kikuchi and Jack Flaherty. Also ineligible are players who’ve received one in the past, so that rules out Joc Pederson, Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi (assuming he declines his player option), Cody Bellinger (ditto), and, should he opt out, Gerrit Cole.

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

The final stretch of the season is now upon us, and it sure is going to be fun. The Orioles and Yankees are jockeying for the AL East title, with a first-round bye almost certainly going to the winner. The NL Wild Card is a beautiful mess, with four teams fighting for the three spots and two other clubs, the Cubs and Cardinals, still lurking in the distance. And the under-the-radar Tigers are roaring, trying to pull out a last-minute postseason berth after selling at the trade deadline.

Last month, when I wrote about the players who were added off the waiver wire, I mentioned that another batch of waiver claims would come at the end of August, after more teams fell out of contention. So now that we’re well into September, let’s take a look at some of the notable players who’ve switched teams over the last few weeks.

Read the rest of this entry »