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Don’t Forget About Drew Pomeranz

From results to stuff, Drew Pomeranz became Rich Hill’s doppelgänger last season. He even took an unorthodox route, like Hill, to the front of a rotation. The former fifth-overall pick in the draft was traded to the Rockies early in his career, struggled as most young arms do in Colorado, had some moments in Oakland in a mixed relief-and-starting role, and arrived at Padres’ camp last spring competing for a rotation spot.

Hill and Pomeranz share many traits. They’re both left-handed. Both also feature some of the highest average spin-rates on their four-seam fastballs, allowing them to pitch up in the zone due to the perception of rise. Last season, Hill’s fastball averaged 2,456 rpm; Pomeranz’ averaged 2,471 rmp. (The MLB average is about 2,220.) They also have curveballs of dramatic shape and arc as their signature pitches, and they each trust the bending pitch.

Among pitchers who logged at least 100 innings last season, Hill led all major-league pitchers by throwing his curveball at a 42.4% rate. Pomeranz was second with a 39.2% usage rate.

Both received advice on curveball usage. Hill was convinced by Brian Bannister to depart from conventional pitch usage as a member of the Red Sox; Pomeranz, by the Padres’ coaching staff, according to MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell.

The Padres made a point of asking Pomeranz to throw his hook more than he did in three seasons as a starter with Colorado — when he used the pitch less than 17 percent of the time.

Pomeranz increased his curveball usage from 17% in Colorado to 26.8% and 30.6% in Oakland in 2014 and 2015, respectively, while working primarily out of the bullpen. From his 2015 level at Oakland, Pomeranz then increased the pitch’s usage by nearly a third last season at the heeding of the Padres staff.

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How Necessary Are Mound Visits?

The commissioner’s office, as we know, is interested in quickening a game that continues to slow, a trend recently revisited here by Jeff Sullivan.

While the intentional walk no longer requires four actual pitches to be thrown, while limits have been placed upon the length of instant-replay decisions, and while pitch clocks might be on their way to the major leagues after having been present in the minors for a couple years, there’s been less discussion about another pace-of-play variable currently under inspection: mound visits.

Mound visits undoubtedly slow the game. Part of the problem with regulating them, however, is that we don’t know how much (if any) value they provide for the pitchers and coaches meeting in the middle of the infield. While there must certainly be occasions when they benefit a club, does that occur often enough to warrant the frequency of the meetings?

Consider an extreme case from Monday night’s game in Pittsburgh. Talented but erratic Pirates starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow was having a rough go of it in his first start of the the season.

After he issued back-to-back walks to load the bases in the first, Ray Searage did what has been done for as long as there have been pitching coaches and struggling pitchers. He went out to have a word, to press pause, to change focus, to hopefully hit a sort of reset button with Glasnow.

Searage appeared to implore Glasnow to “Go after these guys.”

It didn’t work.

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Let Michael Conforto Play

Mets fans know the dilemma well. Despite already possessing probably the club’s second-best bat after Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto might have a tenuous grasp on a roster spot.

Conforto isn’t a natural center fielder. Juan Lagares is a natural center fielder and is also nearing a return from a rehab stint to serve as the club’s fourth outfielder, a role which Conforto is currently filling.

Conforto is a more natural fit at a corner-outfield spot, but Cespedes has a solid grasp of left field and the Mets owe Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce $15 million and $13 million, respectively, this year. Granderson and Bruce are atop the depth chart at center and right field.

Conforto is well aware of his situation. He’s well aware he has minor-league options remaining and a relatively paltry salary. Said the 24-year-old to Newsday earlier this week: “My situation is a day-to-day thing.”

Despite doing this on Wednesday night…

Despite demonstrating a compact, powerful swing that produced results on Sunday…

Regardless of the quality of contact he’s produced, his pedigree as a first-round pick, and the intriguing track record, Conforto isn’t a lock to stick in the lineup regularly or on the 25-man roster at all.

There’s the old adage that if you can hit they will find a place for you in the field. Will the Mets?

This is a player who posted a 133 wRC+ of as a rookie in 2015 over 194 plate appearances, when Conforto’s average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives was 96.1 mph, ranking him 22nd among hitters with at least 100 batted-ball events (just behind Cespedes). After an excellent start to 2016, a wrist issue and inconsistent playing time contributed to a lackluster sophomore campaign.

Still, despite 2016, Conforto was projected by ZiPS to be the Mets’ second-best position player in 2017. From our ZiPS post back in February:

Only four Mets field players recorded a WAR figure of 2.0 or greater in 2016. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, six different Mets might be expected to reach that mark in 2017. Yoenis Cespedes (596 PA, 4.1 zWAR) receives the club’s top projection by a full win — and three of the club’s top-four forecasts overall belong to outfielders. One of those additional outfielders is Curtis Granderson (538, 2.3). The other isn’t presumptive right-field starter Jay Bruce (583, 1.2) but rather Michael Conforto (558, 3.0). Conforto, in other words, appears to be a markedly superior option.

And all Conforto has done this spring is hit like Kyle Schwarber Lite. He’s making life difficult on Mets officials tasked with setting the roster and lineup card.

Last year, Eno Sarris wrote about the development of power and how Conforto’s best contact hadn’t been ideal. Well, Conforto is making strides there early this spring. His home run on Sunday left his bat at 108 mph and landed 430 feet away in right-center field.

Conforto can hit. He might be the Mets’ second-best hitter and yet the Mets continue to struggle to find a place for his bat, giving him only two starts so far this season.

The Mets might have initially regretted picking up Bruce’s option, insurance in case Cespedes signed elsewhere this offseason. But Bruce has been productive to date this year, and might be benefiting from an attempt to launch more balls in the air. Bruce has hit four home runs in the season’s first week and is slashing .273/.385/.667 — in part, fueled by a 0.40 GB/FB ratio.

So what to do with Conforto?

A modest proposal: platoon Conforto with Lagares in center (which is how the Mets began last season), hope for the best defensively, and let him hit.

For starters, outfield defense is a bit less important behind the Mets, whose pitching staff finished ninth in strikeouts in baseball a season ago and ninth in ground-ball rate (46.5%). The Mets’ power rotation is again expected to miss many a bat and produce a better-than-average ground-ball rate.

But Conforto might actually be a superior defensive option to Granderson in center right now. In limited defensive work in center field, covering 48 innings, Conforto has been worth 1 defensive run save (DRS). In 952 innings in left, he’s been posted 9 DRS, exceeding expectations of his defense. Granderson, meanwhile, has declined as a defender and is already rated as being worth -2 DRS this season in center. In his last full season in center, in New York in 2012, Granderson was worth -7 DRS.

Conforto is the better offensive option going forward.

As for Lagares, he’s an excellent defensive center fielder, having tallied 62 DRS from 2013 to -16, but he’s posted well below-average offensive seasons in back-to-back years, including a 79 wRC+ mark in 2015 and an 84 wRC+ last season. However, for his career, Lagares has a wRC+ of 105 versus lefties versus a 76 mark against righties. Given what we know about platoon splits, that might actually be a fair representation of his true talent. There’s a place for Lagares’ glove as a defensive replacement, or perhaps with a fly-ball pitcher on the mound. And Lagares’ right-handed bat could serve as a platoon partner for Conforto who has struggled to hit lefties (.129 average in 62 at-bats) early in his big-league career.

Every win matters for the Mets in what figures to be a competitive NL East. While their lineup is off to a productive start, it would be more productive, more often, with their second-most-capable hitter in the lineup.

We’ve always heard that if you can hit a team will find a place for you. For much of this spring it seemed the Mets were thinking that place was Triple-A for Conforto, but perhaps Conforto’s strong spring and torrid start to open the season in limited chances could force some more creative thinking.

The sooner they find a way to make a consistent lineup home for Conforto, the better off they will be.


Is Jason Heyward’s Broken Swing on the Mend?

Often it seems that anything written in April, any attempt at analysis, any assessment of a player, must be accompanied by a disclaimer that it’s small-sample-size season. That same sense of caution applies to this report, certainly. It’s generally dangerous to read into any limited sample of work — especially at the beginning of a season, when we’re most starved for actual baseball, when we’re most apt to rush to a judgement or make an extrapolation.

Still, some things occur at this time of year that do matter.

Sometimes, of course, the adjustment and changes made in the offseason and during spring do lead to results.

And a good start for Jason Heyward was important — if for no other reason than to quell lineup controversy and ensure playing time.

Last October, the last time most of us saw Heyward, his swing was broken. There were times, as a neutral observer, that it was difficult to watch him struggle with his awkward swing, sapped both of power and confidence. Last season, Heyward’s average exit velocity of 87.4 mph ranked 282nd among hitters 379 hitters with at least 100 batted-ball events, a figure sandwiched between those produced by Delino DeShields and Kolten Wong.

While Heyward has always had a mechanical-looking swing, the production and velocity was well down from his 2015 levels, when he slashed .293/.359/.439 and produced an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph. That season, combined with his longer track record of defensive excellence and above-average offense, earned him an eight-year, $184 million contract.

That contract looked like one of the few errors made to date during the Theo Epstein Era in Chicago. Heyward was going to become a very expensive defensive specialist if he posted another 72 wRC+, if he suffered an unusual loss of offensive abilities in the midst of his prime, like Melvin Upton Jr.

So this offseason, with no monetary incentive, with pride and professionalism serving as primary motivators, Heyward went to work.

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Joey Votto’s Very Un-Votto Like Start

Joey Votto is up to something.

One of the game’s most selective hitters — perhaps the game’s best at discerning balls from pitches he can damage over the last decade — is hacking in 2017.

Through the first week of the season, Votto’s zone-swing rate is 90.2%. For his career, however, it’s a much more modest mark of 68.5%. Last season, it was 68.6%. Votto’s out-of-zone swing rate rests at 28.1%, up from 20.8% last season. A graphic featuring the location of pitches against Votto confirms his more liberal approach.

So, what the hell is going on here?

Intrepid Cincinnati Enquirer reporter Zach Buchanan investigated and demanded answers.

“P Double-i P” read the shirt that Cincinnati Reds assistant hitting coach Tony Jaramillo wore around the clubhouse Monday at PNC Park. It was a gift from first baseman Joey Votto, and it translates to “Put it in Play.” …

So, is he doing it on purpose? Or is it just a small-sample aberration? Votto, exceedingly secretive when it comes to his plan at the plate, fouled those questions off.

“You’re asking me about my approach and my tactics,” Votto said. “That’s kind of personal. I wouldn’t want to share the specifics when that could benefit the opposition.”

Is Votto simply employing a tactic to go against scouting reports early in the season? Is he trying for a few April ambushes when last year’s data is what everyone has had all winter to evaluate? Is he — gasp — losing bat speed and/or visual acuity?

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Miguel Sano’s Little Adjustment Could Mean Big Things

While Byron Buxton’s first week was discouraging owing to the presence of his ongoing contact issues, another former uber prospect, Miguel Sano, put together a promising opening week during the Twins’ surprising start to the season.

Sano’s resume is dotted with its own swing-and-miss issues, and strikeouts will always be a part of Sano’s game as a three-outcome slugger.

But when Sano makes contact, special things happen. According to Statcast data, he finished 13th in average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives last season (97.0 mph) — minimum 100 batted ball events — and second in 2015 (99.2 mph), trailing only Giancarlo Stanton, a frequent comp for Sano.

After giving us a taste of his promise in 2015, Sano dealt with injury, inconsistency, and perhaps an ill-advised position change last season.

But things are looking up for Sano in 2017. As Dave Cameron noted earlier this year, there’s evidence he possesses the athleticism to handle third base, the position to which he’s returned this year. And Sano received an interesting — and perhaps crucial — swing tip this offseason.

In an age when more hitters are receiving help from non-traditional sources — such as private hitting instructors, for example — Sano received some advice this offseason while home in the Dominican Republic, where he encountered former major leaguer Fernando Tatis.

Sano recalled the exchange last month for Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. From Miller’s piece:

Tatis, whose son Fernando Jr. is a top prospect in the Padres organization, watched Sano take batting practice and made a suggestion.

“He said hands up high takes me too much time to [get in position to] swing,” Sano explained, demonstrating the extra motion required to trigger his swing. “Put my hands lower, and it’s just one move. Faster.”

The result, according to Sano? “If I put [my hands] lower, I have more time. I can see the ball more,” he said. “I start them down, see the pitch, and boom.”

Consider Sano’s hand placement last season in this at-bat…

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John Hart’s Giving Tree of Innovation

KISSIMMEE, Fla. – Everyone wants to speak with John Hart.

On a sunny day in late March at the Braves’ spring-training facility, Hart is seated in the driver’s seat of an E-Z-GO golf cart near the nylon netting of the on-field cage during batting practice. He employs the cart to travel around the sprawling facility. He loves spending time at its back fields, where the game’s No. 1 farm system, according to Baseball America, resided this spring. But at the big-league field his ability to watch pre-game work is compromised by a constant flow of visitors.

Bo Porter, a front-office assistant, is seated next to Hart in the passenger seat of the cart when Charlie Leibrandt approaches and speaks with Hart about a recent golf outing. Several current Braves players approach, as does a reporter (me). He makes time for everyone. No one is hesitant to greet the club president. There’s no halo of space — or a sense of need for space — around him.

“I like people. I’m an encourager by nature,” Hart says. “I really am.”

Perhaps that’s the foundation of his success: availability and amiability. I spoke with Hart this spring in the midst of his third rebuild project as an executive. His first, in Cleveland, was a major success, and he later put pieces in place for a turnaround in Texas. All that eludes him in a professional career spanning nearly four decades is a World Series ring.

It’s quite possible that encouraging, enjoying people, listening, being approachable — that they’re all keys to fostering the sort of collaborative environment and innovation for which Hart is responsible. It was under Hart that pre-arbitration contracts were pioneered, along with the modern front-office structure, in the early and mid-1990s in Cleveland. The game’s first proprietary database was built there, and all those Ivy League GMs who are running the show these days? Hart started that trend, too. He’s the creator of something akin to baseball’s version of the Bill Parcells Coaching Tree, having hired an unparalleled number of front-office staffers who became general managers.

Said Braves general manager John Coppolella, whom Hart hired in Atlanta: “I think you can very easily make a case for John Hart to be in the Hall of Fame. If you think about the influence he’s had. There are, what, 10 GMs who have worked for him? He can really hand power to people.”

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:00
Travis Sawchik: Greetings. How was everyone’s Week 1?

12:01
Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started …

12:01
Seven Costanza: Joey Votto is currently running a 93.8% zSwing, while also running an overall contact rate of 95.4%. (Both way higher tha his career norms). For a player of his characteristics, have we ever seen a guy go from super passive to super aggressive? If so, it seems to me like this might be a worse version of Votto. Your thoughts, good sir?

12:02
Travis Sawchik: This disclaimer will apply to everything we chat about today and this month: it’s early …. But we still need to talk about stuff. And there are still interesting things going on. And this may be one of them! Maybe Votto has a trick up his sleeve. It would see to be an unusual trend.

12:04
Eric: Any thoughts on the Matz situation? He says he’s hurt, doctors say he’s fine. To what extent is part of being a big-league pitcher dealing with some level of constant arm discomfort? And isn’t this a dangerous ideology to tell someone discomfort is natural?

12:05
Travis Sawchik: You often hear pitchers say they have to learn to deal with a certain level of discomfort, but, yeah, it’s probably dangerous to tell pitcher to go ahead pitch through that stabbing sensation in their elbow. Matz has had injuries. He should know his body better than anyone. I think you have to listen to and trust the player at this point

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Puig Has Joined the Merry Band of Fly-Ball Revolutionaries

Perhaps the best athlete, to date, is joining the revolution.

Said athlete is Yasiel Puig and said revolution is that of the fly-ball. It seems more and more batters are pushing against traditional coaching orthodoxy and endeavoring to lift the ball in the air.

Exhibit A from Thursday afternoon at Dodger Stadium:

According to MLB.com’s Austin Laymance Puig has been working with teammate Justin Turner on adding loft to his swing. And Puig is off to a tremendous start this season, having hit three home runs in four games.

“What I think about is putting the ball in the air,” Puig said via interpreter, “or else I’m going to have no money in my pocket.”

Turner, of course, is one of the key agents of the fly-ball revolution. If not the protagonist, he’s at least played an important supporting role. After a mediocre start to his career, Turner sought the help of outside hitting instructor Doug Latta, who believes that the ideal swing path is one that launches balls into the air. Turner’s mechanical adjustments turned him into a star. And now Turner is approaching players whom he believes can benefit from getting more balls into the air. The Puig-Turner relationship could perhaps be another example of the power of word of mouth, the power of peers to push a movement towards a tipping point.

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An Early Update on Andrew McCutchen’s Right-Field Experience

This wasn’t a pleasant offseason for Andrew McCutchen. The face of the franchise’s availability on the trade market was well known and, at times this winter, a trade seemed inevitable. About four months ago, in an Orlando hotel, McCutchen told former teammate Michael McKenry — they were together for an event — that he thought he’d just been traded.

Stephen Nesbitt recently chronicled the experience for the Post-Gazette.

Writes Nesbitt:

McKenry says he sensed something was the matter.

“I think I just got traded to the Nationals,” McCutchen said.

McKenry blinked and sputtered back, “Well, holy schnikes.”

Of course, McCutchen was not traded to the Nationals. Perhaps he would have been had Adam Eaton not been dealt there. We’ll never know.

As if being made available in a trade weren’t a sufficient blow to the ego of the former MVP, the Pirates then asked him McCutchen to move off of center field, not only a position of some status but also the only position he had played since debuting in the majors. Imagine the Yankees publicly dangling Derek Jeter later in his career and then ask him to move off shortstop, to, say, second base. You don’t see stars treated in such a manner every day.

But for the Pirates to compete in the NL Central they must perhaps operate with cold-hearted, ruthless efficiency. And the club seemed to be in need of moving McCutchen somewhere. He posted an MLB-worst -28 Defensive Runs Saved last season as a center fielder. McCutchen has declined defensively in each year since 2013, and that decline accelerated in his shocking age-29 campaign last season.

(McCutchen was hurt by the Pirates’ shallower outfield defensive alignment, which back-fired last year when the club was unable to produce as many ground balls and shallow flies as in the past. Still, McCutchen, by the eye test and analytics, has been a liability in center field.)

On the surface, the move to right seemed curious since McCutchen’s throwing arm has long been thought to be his weakest tool. On competitive throws, McCutchen averaged 85.8 mph last season, a middling number and the lowest velocity among the Pirates’ starting outfielders. Right fielders, of course, typically require e a strong arm to reduce the number of first-to-third advancements by baserunners. Wrote former FanGraphs staffer August Fagerstrom last April after digging through some Baseball Info Solutions data:

In 97 instances where a base-runner was deemed to have an opportunity to take an extra base on a ball hit to McCutchen, the runner did so 70 times. That 72% advancement rate was the second-worst on record by a center fielder, dating back to 2006. Only Denard Span‘s 75% advancement rate in 2009 was worse.

But if the prospect of hiding declining range takes precedent over hiding below-average and declining arm strength, then right field in PNC Park is the ideal place to do it, as PNC Park has the largest left field in the game. Mike Petriello presented the case for such a move back in November.

Sure, McCutchen’s arm wouldn’t be a great fit for right, but that may matter less than you think, because PNC Park’s left-field power alley is so big (420 to the deepest part) compared to right (320 down the line, 375 in the power alley) that unlike many other fields, it’s a lot harder to play left than right. That’s a big part of why Marte, a fantastic defender, has stayed there. Either way, the average National League team allowed 73 singles to center with a man on first (i.e., potential first-to-third opportunities), and 80 to right. It’s just not that big of a difference.

After all, a strong outfield arm is nice. Being able to prevent extra-base hits — well, that’s far better. If the Pirates do want to shift McCutchen over, they may be on to something.

Petriello also noted how McCutchen is more effective going to his right, which should play in moving toward the larger space of right-center compared to down the line.

Of course, the move to right had been, until Opening Day, made only in theory and had yet to be put into practice in a regular-season game. And McCutchen received quite the test to open the season in Fenway Park’s spacious and awkward right field.

So how’s it going so far?

McCutchen passed his first test Wednesday when he recorded his first outfield assist as a right fielder, throwing out Sandy Leon on an 89 mph throw to the plate.

Now, it’s true that McCutchen also played some right field in the spring and in the World Baseball Classic, where he did make some off-the-mark throws. But his work with his arm on Wednesday — albeit against a catcher on the bases — is encouraging.

And McCutchen also made a nice catch in going back on the ball, a weakness for him as a defender in center, to rob Mitch Moreland of an extra-base hit.

And with the Pirates planning to go away from their ground-ball philosophy to a degree, as David Laurila reported — and with McCutchen likely playing a deeper relative position in the field than he did a year ago —
maybe he can bounce back defensively in a move down the spectrum.

Torii Hunter made the full time move from center to right in 2011 after declining in center. In his first two years in right field he posted +7 and +12 DRS numbers in 2011 and 2012.

Hey, McCutchen is off to a good start:

While McCutchen could still perhaps be sent to a new address at the trade deadline, depending on the Pirates’ performance, or after the season — the Pirates hold a 2018 club option — perhaps he has found a new home in the field.