Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 1/4/21

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the first FanGraphs chat of the new year (presumably).

Ben Clemens: We’ll answer some questions, have some fun, and maybe (not likely but maybe!) some perfectly phrased question will solve baseball.

Cave Dameron: If Greg Maddux was pitching in this era, do you think he would be just as good? His approach of sinking pitches and getting groundballs seemed to benefit greatly in his era where guys were taught to swing down on the ball.

Ben Clemens: Thank you Cave, very cool.

Ben Clemens: I don’t really know how to think about the era adjustment here.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he would throw the same pitch mix today, for one.

Ben Clemens: Generally speaking I wouldn’t bet against Maddux being effective, but if someone who threw Greg Maddux’s exact pitches appeared in the bigs today, I don’t think it work all that well.

Kate: Should (will) the Astros give Toro a shot in the OF?

Ben Clemens: Should they? I think so.

Ben Clemens: Will they? I also think so, actually

Ben Clemens: They don’t seem all that interested in bringing in a bunch of veterans, and Toro is worth getting a longer look at.

Chris: Are we ever going to get a non npb/kbo major league signing again?

Ben Clemens: Hot take: no.

Ben Clemens: No more major league contracts will get signed

Ben Clemens: In 10 years when Mookie’s contract expires, there will be no one left playing baseball.

Kate: Should we be more worried about Clev’s TJ than normal given it was his second surgery?

Ben Clemens: Yes, a little. One of the biggest problems is that a third one is realllllly bad

Ben Clemens: Not a lot of people come back from three

Ben Clemens: I think there’s a lot of data we won’t actually have around how severe his injury was, how he’s progressing in rehab, etc.

Ben Clemens: But even without knowing that, yeah

Benny: First of the remaining QO free agents to sign is … ?

Ben Clemens: I’ll say Springer. Not a lot to make me favor one over the others, but I could see Cohen deciding on Springer and then just wanting to get somethin done

Kate: What are the odds the Dodgers actually roll with Edwin Rios at 3B this year?  Even if they don’t bring back Turner, it seems likely they’d bring in some kind of vet there, right?

Ben Clemens: I think that, being the Dodgers, they’ll mix and match.

Ben Clemens: There are enough so-so dudes in free agency that even if the Dodgers don’t bring back Turner (which I think they will), there’s probably at least one who internal analytics like

Ben Clemens: And full-time reps for anything short of a superstar player isn’t really the LA way these days

BigOwe: Does Musgrove net the Pirates a top-100 prospect?

Ben Clemens: I may not be the charter member of the Musgrove fan club, but I’m sure I’m close.

Ben Clemens: That said…. I say yes

Ben Clemens: I would be a lot more interested if he got back up to 94-95 (where he was in late 2019) but even without that, I’m a fan

Ben Clemens: Two remaining years? Doesn’t sound bad

Charlie’s Mom: Sugano reportedly set to pick from among his suitors tomorrow—best guess? Most fun possible option?

Ben Clemens: I think there’s a decent chance he declines all his offers and returns to Japan

Ben Clemens: The most fun option is a tie between the Padres and the Blue Jays

Charlie’s Mom: I am concerned that last year’s whiff on a big FA is still haunting the Brewers. Nobody could have predicted (well—any of this all), but missing out on Didi especially after not trying to lock down Grandal stings even more in retrospect. Please give me some hope here lol.

Ben Clemens: Hope for the Brewers: their front office performs best in markets where free agents are in less demand than expected

Ben Clemens: Swooping in for Grandal was great, they got their money’s worth on Cain, and the Yelich deal was possible at least partly b/c the Marlins were flooding the zone with outfielders

Ben Clemens: If this market shakes out that way again, they might be able to swoop in late

Ben Clemens: That was their biggest problem last year IMO; their plan had suited them well, and when the market returned to normal (relatively), they were still playing the waiting game

Kate: Are there teams out there that would use Schwarber at least part of the time at 1B?

Ben Clemens: Yes, I believe so. Any team with a righty 1B who isn’t a stud would have to consider at least a little bit of a platoon there. It’s contingent on him wanting to, but I am pretty sure that won’t be a sticking point

DRB: Did you get a PS5? Do you play the show at all?

Ben Clemens: I did get one! I’ve been playing Ghost of Tsushima so far, and haven’t played the Show, but I’m going to learn how to play this year. Seems like getting the new version when it comes out and going from there is the play?

bk: Do you think Marcus Semien could make for a decent defensive 3B? Could be an outside the box solution for the Jays, who would then have a backup SS as well.

Ben Clemens: I definitely think he would, but I think that might undersell his talents a bit. Kind of depends on what happens to his market, I think. The Jays definitely have some stuff to do this offseason

Christian Colón for Men: Mike Minor. Carlos Santana. Greg Holland.  Michael A. Taylor.  Jump on board the Royals playoff train — Toot!  Toot!

Ben Clemens: Love the Minor signing. Big fan of the Taylor signing honestly

Ben Clemens: Santana? Eh, less enthused

Ben Clemens: It does help that if Cleveland trades Lindor, they only need TWO teams to fall flat on their face this year

Kate: Does the move to Washington help Josh Bell’s odds of rebounding?  I can’t help but feel better about him being out of Pittsburgh.

Ben Clemens: I feel the same way. I can’t say why but it just felt like he had hit a soft ceiling in Pittsburgh

Charlie’s Mom: If you’re the Blue Jays’ FO, what is your ranked order of priorities? I tend to think position player FA, try to trade for (and extend) Lindor or even Bryant and then make trades to fill out rotation. Obviously, this is subject to other parties (teams, players) being willing. But what would *your* plan A be?

Ben Clemens: My order is similar to yours, though I think I’d sign a pitcher in free agency if the deal made sense too

Ben Clemens: Lindor just feels like a good fit there, I’m not convinced moving Bichette off of shortstop will give them pause at all

Charlie: Gun to your head – who is the highest profile free agent to fail to secure a MLB deal this offseason?

Chris: How is it that no one has even offered tanaka a deal?

Ben Clemens: So, I actually think it’s Tanaka, but not b/c no one has offered him a deal yet — my understanding is that the actual deal usually comes late in the process, after talking about what kind of deal both parties are interested and so on

Ben Clemens: Tanaka has the highest chance of signing a deal to play elsewhere, though, and if he does, he’d be hte highest profile FA to do so for sure

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: We’re getting better at cooking with tofu. Big ups to this crispy tofu sandwich.
https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1021237-superiority-burgers-crispy…
Also delicious baked. Melted a slice of American, put on some artisinal chili oil, *chef’s kiss* vegetarian comfort trash. Related, everyone should make their own mayo. Braindead process with an immersion blender or mini food processor.
https://www.seriouseats.com/recipes/2011/10/two-minute-mayonnaise.html
Had some garlicky braised beans when we ran out of food. Very flexible, but double it and/or serve with sides like rice or toast.
https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1019982-creamy-braised-white-beans
NYE we made pimento cheese (did I mention homemade mayo?) and soft pretzels and engorged.
https://www.seriouseats.com/recipes/2011/09/sauced-pimento-cheese-reci…
https://www.kingarthurbaking.com/recipes/hot-buttered-soft-pretzels-re…

Ben Clemens: Oh yes, some tofu recipes

Ben Clemens: We made some black pepper tofu (I don’t have a recipe offhand because we’ve just been playing it by ear a little)

Ben Clemens: And also received a tortilla press for Christmas

Ben Clemens: I’m already much better at turning masa harina into something that resembles tortillas…. my first attempt did not go well!

am1479: Off-topic, but I’m new to Fangraphs….what does it mean when there are only zeros for a player’s three year forecast?

Ben Clemens: Probably that Dan didn’t forecast them. The three-year forecasts are a weird thing on the site, because they’re cool additional info but can sometimes be misleading. Dan makes them before each season, and publishes them exactly once

Ben Clemens: So the 2021 and 2022 projections you see in there were made in January (ish) 2020

Ben Clemens: When the full ZiPS projections are released (which should be soon), I believe a new three year projection will come out as well

Christian Colón for Men: As it’s HOF season, which player who has fallen off the ballot would you immediately add to the HOF if you had the power to do so?

Ben Clemens: Kenny Lofton

Ben Clemens: It’s just a travesty that he fell off so quickly

Ben Clemens: I truly do not understand why

Daniel: Are the Padres pretty heavily dependent on Wil Myers being good? He was their best regular by wRC+ last year. Better than Tatis and Machado. Is betting on Myers a bad bet?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think they’re heavily dependent on him doing well, because they’re just so juiced with players at the moment. They could shift Cronenworth or Pham to right, for example

Ben Clemens: That said, it’s obviously a big benefit if he continues his 2020 form

Ben Clemens: Takes pressure off the rest of the lineup and so on/so forth

Ben Clemens: I’m a Myers fan, and I think a lot of the changes he made in 2020 were sustainable (not to put too fine a point on it, but he just made more in-zone contact)

Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s a true-talent 150 wRC+ hitter (news flash!) but I think he’s better than what he showed in 2018-2019 by a fair margin

Cito: Carlos Delgado falling off the HOF ballot after 1 year is also a travesty.

Ben Clemens: Indeed

Ben Clemens: Delgado is a personal favorite of mine because he played a season in Knoxville when I happened to go to about 30 K-Jays games

Ben Clemens: I’d love to have him in the Hall as well

Cube Jockey: Is Vizquel’s HOF candidacy tenuous enough that his recent legal troubles keep him from ever getting to 75%?

Ben Clemens: I believe so, and ‘legal troubles’ is one of those niceties that I don’t mind ignoring — his ex-wife has accused him of hitting her on multiple occasions

Ben Clemens: I don’t quite get the Vizquel HOF case in the first place — it seems to rely heavily on “He was basically Ozzie Smith with the glove” which is wildly untrue

Kirk: Outside the box ideas for the Angels to address their rotation? Astros and A’s look like they’re taking steps back – they need to do more than getting a Paxton or an Odorizzi, right? Short of Bauer, what’s an alternative path you see as viable?

Ben Clemens: Getting both Paxton AND Odorizzi would be a start. I’d also be interested in trading Adell for pitching, because even though he’s a very shiny prospect, it’s easier to fake an outfield corner than a starting pitcher

Bearry: So as a big Rays fan, as much as I enjoyed last year, I’m worried. Forget pitching, is that lineup going to be above 20th in the league next year?

Jamie: What’s Randy Arozarena’s true talent level? Trying not to let that small sample break my heart in 2021. Can he play a viable center if Kiermaier is traded?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, the lineup is going to be the Rays’ biggest problem this year, I think

Ben Clemens: They’ll hope to keep platooning their way to adequacy, but they truly don’t have the depth that you’d expect for a team who has been so consistently good of late

Ben Clemens: Mejia improving would be nice, Yandy continuing to excel would be nice, I could see those two things happening

Ben Clemens: I think that Steamer isn’t wildly off on Arozarena

Ben Clemens: above-average bat (they have him at 109 wRC+), nothing like the postseason monster he was this year

Ben Clemens: I’d have him higher — maybe 115-120 — and ZiPS mostly agrees with me there

Ben Clemens: The guy rakes, but he’s not Joe DiMaggio 2.0 sadly

Ben Clemens: As to whether he can play a viable center — basically not relaly?

Ben Clemens: I think he can fake it in a pinch but not as an everyday guy

Ben Clemens: Margot can do it, though

Christian Colón for Men: Did Knoxville ever have Wigsphere night?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so 🙁

Ben Clemens: I never did go to the restaurant at the top of the Sunsphere (believe it or not, it didn’t store wigs)

Ben Clemens: But I always did find it amusing that this humdrum town (it’s gotten WAY cooler since I was a kid, but it was decidedly not cool in the 90s) had a World’s Fair

Morbo: Jim Edmonds not making it to a second year on the HOF ballot was a bigger travesty than Delgado

Ben Clemens: One of my favorite Cardinals!

Ben Clemens: The HOF voters have done some very good players a disservice

Steve Cohen: I’m feeling like Springer & Sugano may be a better fit than Bauer, even if I have the money for both Springer and Bauer. I don’t know – I don’t mind outspoken Twitter presence (see: mine), but I feel like there are options behind Bauer that aren’t that bad and would allow us to fill other holes. What say you? I’ll hang up my diamond encrusted modem and listen.

Ben Clemens: Loving the idea of a diamond-encrusted modem

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t necessarily call Cohen’s Twitter presence outspoken, and I actually think Bauer is a decent fit for them, but getting Springer and Sugano would work as well

Ben Clemens: I think everything will be a lot clearer after Sugano signs

Mo Jiggles: Why don’t the Mets seem to care about 3b??

Ben Clemens: Sticking with the Mets for another one — I’m not sure exactly

Ben Clemens: It’s not like playing J.D. Davis there is a complete sacrifice, but they haven’t prioritized infield defense there for quite some time

Ben Clemens: It’s odd because they have a grounder-reliant staff

Lord Shimura: Ben, you bring dishonor by hiding in the shadows. A real Samurai faces his enemy head-on!

Ben Clemens: Yeah but how could I play Skyrim in feudal Japan if sneaking around wasn’t an option?

Robert: Tell me something fun about the Pirates’ bullpen (if such a fun fact exists)

Ben Clemens: Oof, I was going to drop one about Nick Burdi, but he’s not a Pirate anymore

Ben Clemens: Hm

Ben Clemens: Yeah, pass

Isolated Thinker: Do you think Luis Castillo will be traded and could it be to the Dodgers now that SD has bolstered their rotation?

Ben Clemens: I do not think he’ll be traded, though I’ve been a bit wrong on the Reds so far this offseason so take this with a grain of salt

Ben Clemens: That said, I don’t think LA makes particular sense as a place to add a top-tier starting pitcher. It’s not really the Dodgers’ MO to do that, and it’s not like the Padres are their equal even after these signings and trades and so on

BooedSanta: Do Phillies fans have to wait until Dombrowski’s salary comes off the books for the Phillies to sign some talent?

Ben Clemens: Lol amazing

Ben Clemens: I mean, you don’t sign Dombrowski to NOT go for it

Ben Clemens: I’m curious to see what’s coming next

Ben Clemens: A Realmuto signing seems somewhat likely at this point, I guess

Charlie’s Mom: You mentioned the Michael A Taylor signing earlier. I also like the Josh Bell trade (although reasonable people can easily disagree). Of the 3 or 4 other moves made so far this winter, what other “under the radar” ones do you think will have outsized impact?

Ben Clemens: Okay sure. I agree with you on Bell, I think it’s a savvy move for the Nats with really good upside potential

Ben Clemens: I like the Nick Burdi signing for the Padres, lol

Ben Clemens: Mike Minor made a good amount of sense to me, though I think it’s still more than 50-50 that he gets traded

Andy: I’ve heard Adam Ottavino mentioned a bit as a salary dump candidate – do you think he’s broken or are his issues (walks, pitching to lefties) workable? They seem to have lost all trust in him as a high leverage arm

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a bit of both

Ben Clemens: I’m not convinced that the pitching to lefties thing is totally fixable

Ben Clemens: His profile just doesn’t scream lefty beater to me

Ben Clemens: For lack of a better way to put it, his slider is just too frisbee-ish

Ben Clemens: Walks? Fixable

Overbearing Padre: What could the Padres do to become the Dodgers’ equal?

Ben Clemens: For me it’s basically get another step forward out of Tatis and/or Machado

Ben Clemens: If Gore comes up and absolutely shoves, that would help

Ben Clemens: They’ll be close! The Dodgers’ biggest edge is that they have more superstars (Betts, Bellinger, Seager), and that makes it hard to backfill enough around it to overcome that disadvantage

Ben Clemens: I do think that they can, but I also think that it’ll be hard to do so sustainably unless they have either one more big chip or one of their existing ones turns into Trout

Robert: Billy Wagner, the best left-handed closer of all time, should be in the HOF.

Ben Clemens: Agree with this take as well

Ben Clemens: He’s still on the ballot, though, and the question was about players who have fallen off

Ben Clemens: I’d vote for Wagner if I had a ballot for sure

Sharp: Since you’re a fan of both baseball and deckbuilders, have you checked out the center of that Venn Diagram, Baseball Highlights: 2045?

Ben Clemens: Yes! I like that game a lot

Ben Clemens: Haven’t played in a while but I have always enjoyed it

Matt (Oceanside): Fangraphs Zips has the Dodger’s rotation still projected to produce more WAR than the Padres even with the additions of Snell and Darvish. Are people just exclaiming they have the best rotation because it’s fun for them to see a team sign anyone right now?

Ben Clemens: Steamer has the Padres ahead, and honestly, I think it’s quite close overall. I think a lot of it is recency bias, though

Ben Clemens: It’s just so fun to see a team add pieces like that

Ben Clemens: The problem is that the Padres are building from a low base

Ben Clemens: If Clevinger were part of their rotation in 2021, though, I would agree that htey have the best one

Ben Clemens: Narrowly ahead of hte Mets, who I favor right now assuming they sign one of Sugano or Bauer

Jimbo: Will Chris Paddack develop his curve and get back to form with his fastball or is he heading for thr bullpen down the road?

Ben Clemens: Back to form imo

Ben Clemens: I’m not exactly sure what’s going on with that curve, but the changeup plays well enough that I like him in the rotation long-term even if the curve doesn’t completely develop

Saul Goodman: In light of the Ross Detwiler signing, what is the most inexplicable guaranteed MLB deal given thus far this offseason, and why is it Abraham Almonte?

Ben Clemens: Presented without further comment

Morbo: Mets are reportedly out on Sugano

Ben Clemens: Well, that’s confusing to me

Ben Clemens: Okay, walk back my Mets rotation talk a bit, then, since they’re obviously not 100% to get Bauer

Daisy: What do the Royals have in Brady Singer? Is it just me or is their rotation…..not too shabby?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I don’t mind it. Bubic is fine too. If either of those guys makes a leap this year, it will be downright intriguing

Robert: Do you see Justus Sheffield sticking around as a mid-rotation starter in years to come? Evaluations on him have jumped all over the place

Ben Clemens: Pitchers evolve over time unpredictably, but my current take is that he’s mostly likely to be a 4-5 type guy who you would be pleased to have at the back of your rotation but unhappy with in the top 3

Ben Clemens: That’s a pretty milquetoast take, but I just think that this kind of profile

Ben Clemens: Nothing amazing, nothing backbreaking

Ben Clemens: Often pans out worse than you’d expect

v2micca: I’m not a pharmacist, so I don’t even know if this is possible.  But what would the MLB do if one of the COVID-19 vaccinations started triggering false positives on one of the banned substances?

Ben Clemens: My guess (also not a pharmacist, chemist, almost any -ist) is that it isn’t possible

Ben Clemens: That said, they’d change the PED tests

Ben Clemens: there’s more than one way to screen for a PED

Morbo: A diamond-encrusted modem would probably help prevent it from overheating. What with diamond being most efficient thermal conductor known.

Ben Clemens: The rich get richer

Ben Clemens: Or, well, not richer, since presumably diamond-encrusted modems aren’t cheap

Ben Clemens: The rich get faster ping times

Jasonnorton_1@yahoo.com: With the CBA expiring and some ongoing financial issues from covid/limited fans in 2021, is it a possibility the owners could lockout the players to reduce the number of games this year and try to get some leverage for CBA negotiations?

Ben Clemens: I sure would have thought so

Ben Clemens: That said, it looks like Spring Training will be starting on time

Ben Clemens: Which is a good sign the other way

Cito: Why don’t we see more teams load up on rangy outfielders in the corners to help FB-heavy pitching staffs, in the same way we see teams prioritize infield defense for GB-heavy staffs?

Ben Clemens: This is an interesting question. My gut feel is that the gains are smaller — fewer fly balls are in the playable/unplayable border where your rangy outfielders help than grounders

Ben Clemens: Might be a fun one to look at, though

Ben Clemens: Totally worth considering, though

Moonlight Graham: Do you see Ha-Seong Kim earning the Padres starting 2B outright by midseason?

Ben Clemens: I believe so

Ben Clemens: It helps that Cronenworth is so versatile

Curtis: How many truly “elite” players are there currently in MLB?  Whatever definition/criteria you want to employ…

Ben Clemens: Very lazy one: there are 31 players projected by Steamer for 4 or more WAR in 2021

Ben Clemens: I thikn that works as a first cut

Paul: Has there ever been a stranger collapse than Craig Kimbrel? Is he even tradeable?

Ben Clemens: Stranger collapse? For sure

Ben Clemens: What about Jason Heyward, for example?

Ben Clemens: Not to pile on the Cubs too much

Ben Clemens: Tony Conigliaro’s wasn’t strange, but it was sad

Ben Clemens: Jim Rice, maybe? I dunno, there are some really weird ones in the past

Ben Clemens: Rick Ankiel’s first collapse will always stick out to me

Ben Clemens: To answer your second question, I mean, no

Ben Clemens: He’s not tradeable unless the Cubs eat the money and lol

asypta: If the A’s were to offer Khris Davis to the Orioles for Chris Davis, and no money were to change hands, would the O’s take the deal?

Ben Clemens: Takin a look at the contracts. Khris is getting $17 mm this year, Chris $23 million

Ben Clemens: Oh boy, Chris is under contract for 2 years

Ben Clemens: Uh, yes

Ben Clemens: The O’s would happily take that deal

Ben Clemens: It looks like their yearly cash is similar

Ben Clemens: $17 both years for Chris despite a higher cap hit

Ben Clemens: But shaving off a year and ending up with a guy who can play in the majors? They’d do that

Roman: Less interesting team – Rockies or Rangers?

Ben Clemens: Rangers. The Rockies are always interesting for what they don’t do

Ben Clemens: That’s not to say that it’s a good kind of interesting

Ben Clemens: They seem to be playing a different game than the rest of the league, though, and that’s interesting

Al: Is Freddie Freeman on an HoF path?

Ben Clemens: He’s a little short

Ben Clemens: That’s not to sya that he cna’t make it

Ben Clemens: A Beltre-ian 30s would easily do it

Ben Clemens: And even something short of that could work

Shannon: Really rooting for Trey Mancini this year. Putting the disease aside for a second (which I know we can’t really do), how much would you expect the year off from playing to dampen the outlook in a vacuum?

Ben Clemens: A good amount ,though less given that no one got a full year of reps in 2020

Ben Clemens: I’m really rooting for Mancini

Guest: If the Pirates tank, and tank hard, does that damage their chances of signing players in future years when they are trying to win or is their reputation in the trash so much that it doesn’t matter?

Ben Clemens: In a word, no

Ben Clemens: In several words, money talks

Ben Clemens: The Astros drew a 0.0 local TV rating during the depths of their rebuild

Ben Clemens: They made a mockery of the concept that major league teams attempt to win games

Ben Clemens: They tore it down to the studs, then tore the studs down

Ben Clemens: Free agents still take their money

Ben Clemens: They were even considered amodel organization for a second there by people who are morality agnostic

Ben Clemens: So uh, yeah, the bigger issue with the Pirates giving free agents money is that Bob Nutting won’t do it

Christopher: How hot/cold is Kenley Jansen’s seat as closer in LA?

Ben Clemens: Oh it’s quite hot

Ben Clemens: I could see Knebel takin the job, even

Rally Cat: When I face difficult issues in life, I ask, What Would the Astros Do?

Ben Clemens: If only you could devise a system that would bang on a trash can when your boss was about to walk behind your desk so that he wouldn’t see you were on FanGraphs chatting

Ben Clemens: (pre-perma-work-from-home, that is)

Moonlight Graham: Speaking of the CBA which NL contender hurts the most if the MLB takes away the universal DH in 2021?

Ben Clemens: Hm, good question. My gut is that it’s one of the Mets, Dodgers, or Padres. The Padres because they have one too many bats if things work out, the Mets b/c they have a few too many positionless bats, and the Dodgers b/c Justin Turner

Matt (Oceanside): If the Dodgers sign Bauer, does that move them back on top of the Padres via Steamer. Btw, steamer seems to undervalue both Paddock and Urias

Ben Clemens: It would, and yeah, I like both of those two more than Steamer does, though hey, over the long haul projection systems are pretty good at projecting

Mr. Burrito: if the dodgers buy a FA bat, say DJ, would they then try to trade pollack? and if they do, could they find a taker? he had a nice comeback year in ’20 — and feels like a solid above avg. regular at this point — but could he be at peak value right now?

Ben Clemens: They’d struggle to find a taker this year, I think, just b/c money has gotten so tight everywhere. If they ate his salary lots of teams would be interested, though. The rebound doesn’t completely pass the smell test to me — I don’ see him holding onto all the power — but I agree that he looks a hair above average

Ben Clemens: As a bat, at least, advanced metrics are really down on the defense

Guest: How did Trent Grisham get so good, especially defensively, when his scouting report was meh?

Ben Clemens: Offensively, I’m not shocked

Ben Clemens: He made a huge leap in 2019, and it was basically power-based; he already had the eye to make it work, and Eric and Kiley always like his raw power, he just wasn’t accessing it during games

Ben Clemens: As to how he became a good center fielder, there’s a little bit of Harrison Bader to the way people missed on his defensive projections

Ben Clemens: He’s fast!

Fernando Tatis-Buck Jr.: Regarding Grisham – front offices grossly underrated his raw speed

Ben Clemens: Yeah, basically this I think

Ben Clemens: The guy can fly, and I think it’s just easier to miss defensive instincts a little bit on minor league corner outfielders

JR: Could Trammell be Grisham 2.0?

Ben Clemens: I think he could be a Grisham remix, maybe

Ben Clemens: I don’t think the eye is tehre in the same way

Ben Clemens: Grisham consistently walked 15% of the time in the minors

Ben Clemens: Trammell has never walked 15% of the time in the minors

Ben Clemens: TT is a little bigger, though

Ben Clemens: And faster, likely, though i haven’t seen any home to first splits to compare

Ben Clemens: Kind of crazy that Grisham had a 50 FV on his speed in the minors, but Bader had a 60 before becoming one of the fastest players period and Tyler O’Neill had a 55 and is 99th percentile in sprint speed now

Ben Clemens: I think it’s just hard to accurately judge speed and separate it from game speed

Guest: Can Nick Madrigal’s bat play at the big league level once teams start to shift more accurately against him?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, at least in a David Fletcher kind of way.

Ben Clemens: That’s not a bad outcome; Fletcher is a nice player

Ben Clemens: It’s not like Madrigal is easy to shift against or something, either

Ben Clemens: He sprays the ball and is fast

Kurt: What would you do to fix MLB’s problem of player compensation and free agency?

Ben Clemens: Nothing like a little gimme question at the end of the chat 🙂

Ben Clemens: That said, I think the main thing I’d do to change the game is drastically raise the minimum salary (to either 1.5mm or 2mm)

Ben Clemens: and revamp the arbitration system

Ben Clemens: This can come at the same time as some kind of reasonable revenue split, I’m not saying players should just get way more money in perpetuity

Ben Clemens: The way the system works now just creates bad incentives. Changing the relative production/valuation ratio of younger players and older players seems like the easiest way to fix this

Ben Clemens: As long as you can keep getting three years of Blake Snell at 600k per, and then the next four years cost you 10 million per (or whatever, painting with an extremely broad brush), teams are going to act accordingly

LenFuego: Your recent Best of 2020 post about Bauer’s late 2019 experiment kind of begs for a follow-up for 2020 based on his Cy Young results … any plans to look at whether the experiment continued?

Ben Clemens: I didn’t bother to, b/c here’s the one word summary: Yes

Ben Clemens: 8 of the 10 highest single-game four-seam spin rates that Bauer has produced in ihs entire career were in 2020

Ben Clemens: The other two were in September 2019

Guest: Does that make him a riskier buy given that there’s a chance that once he gets some money he’ll go back to his moral high ground and try to beat guys without his sticky stuff?

Ben Clemens: I mean, you could just ask him that

Ben Clemens: But nah, I don’t see it.

Ben Clemens: It’s a weird moral high ground to take, anyway

Ben Clemens: I think now that he saw how good he can be with it, it’ll be hard to accept less

Guest: Do the Mets really have a lot of positionless guys? Overlap and holes, yes, but almost everyone except JD Davis can play the field somewhere adequately.

Ben Clemens: Yeha maybe I misspoke

Ben Clemens: The Mets have too many hitters who have to play out of position to squeeze their bats into the lineup

Ben Clemens: Dom Smith, Brandon Nimmo, etc.

Ben Clemens: Cano’s suspension eased the pressure by giving McNeil an everyday spot

Ben Clemens: But it’s just a tricky juggling act

Ben Clemens: One last questoin, and then we’re calling it a day

Nick: What do you think of the Royals this year? Seems like a .500 team on the way up to me

Ben Clemens: I’m with you on the trajectory, a little lower on where they’ll come in this year

Ben Clemens: I would say that this is a team that needs a few young players to make leaps

Ben Clemens: They’ve set themselves up in such a way that if two of their good young players hit the development jackpot, they’re incredibly intriguing

Ben Clemens: If Franchy turns into an All Star and Bubic or Singer shoves, heck yeah!

Morbo: Remember you need to take a few wins off the Royals projections for Matheny’s managerial mistakes

Ben Clemens: I said only one more question but this frustrated Cardinals fan attitude speaks to ome

Ben Clemens: I have developed SEVERAL stats I’ve wanted to call Matheny’s

Ben Clemens: My favorite being a pitcher batting for himself and then not lasting the next inning

Ben Clemens: Luckily, that’s a tricky one in the AL

Ben Clemens: That said, I would be concerned about his past issues handling young players

Ben Clemens: Not that the Royals have enough veterans to block youngsters, but it’s a worry if they start improving

Ben Clemens: On that note, I’m off

Ben Clemens: I’m still getting my chatting reps in to get back up to game speed

Ben Clemens: Have a great day everyone, and I’ll talk to you next week