Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/9/20

March 9, 2020

2:02	Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. I know everyone’s mind is probably not completely on baseball right now, but hey, I’ll take 50%. I finished making lunch (some pot stickers), so let’s talk baseball.

2:02	hckim: what do you think about justus sheffield’s improvement? Can he rebound from awful 2019?

2:03	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m willing to give him a mulligan for 2019.

2:04	Ben Clemens: The stats are certainly worrisome, but I’d be more concerned about the velo dip really, because I’m willing to forgive pitchers some bad statistical patches more so than batters.

2:05	Ben Clemens: So yeah, I’m not going to give up on him yet. If he’s still throwing softer and getting bad results after this year, though, I’ll re-evaluate.

2:05	Zarhan Faida: rank these pitchers in value over next 3 years please: Clevinger, Woodruff, Fried

2:06	Ben Clemens: I think you have to take Clevinger first. The injury situation isn’t awesome, obviously, and he’s a guy where you really want him throwing hard, but he’s just shown it in a way that the other two haven’t.

2:07	Ben Clemens: After that I actually lean Fried, which I think is a minority opinion. I like his two breaking ball look, and the changeup was bad anyway.

2:07	Ben Clemens: So I think that he can be more like his 2019 than his previous self.

2:09	Ben Clemens: Woodruff is great too, obviously. But with him coming back from injury, I’m a little scared he’ll be down a tick or so and just not have it in quite the same way. And I’m skeptical of his changeup.

2:09	Frankie Carbone: Who finishes with more innings, Darvish or Snell?

2:11	Ben Clemens: Gotta take Darvish here. I don’t think he’s ultra-durable or anything, but the Rays seem to baby Snell when they can to keep him effective, while the Cubs could really use length out of Darvish given their bullpen.

2:11	Ben Clemens: I’m very high on Darvish this year, incidentally.

2:11	Ben Clemens: I think people forget it because his full-season stats were so-so, but he was incredible in the second half last year.

2:12	Ben Clemens: And really aside from his first chunk of starts, where he was walking the world.

2:12	Ben Clemens: Picking up Kimbrel’s knuckle curve somehow seems to have worked, as well.

2:12	Derek: Bummer about Verlander 🙁

2:12	Ben Clemens: Yeah, it’s low on the list of things I’m sad/worried about these days, but still lame.

2:12	Zarhan Faida: Carlos Correa is being drafted around pick 90. Is that entirely just due to injury history? He’s phenomenally talented.

2:13

Ben Clemens: I had an auction last night (getting back into fantasy this year after a year off) and Correa went cheap. That’s anecdata, but it surprised me. I think a lot of it has to do with injury history, but Astros in general seem undervalued to me. Maybe people are worried about HBP injuries, but I think they’re just discounting too much.

2:13	Derek: Has there been any word from MLB on potential coronavirus-related schedule changes? Italy today canceled all sports for a month…

2:15	Ben Clemens: I have not seen anything yet aside from the guidance that media members and anyone in contact with players should self-quarantine if they have been to affected areas or have symptoms.

2:15	Ben Clemens: There’s also a call between teams and the commisioner’s office today, so expect to hear more about it soon.

2:15	Ben Clemens: NPB opening day got delayed.

2:16	Ben Clemens: I have tickets to opening day here in SF, and I’m not 100% clear on whether I’d go. I’m leaning yes, but it’s a serious question.

2:16	Merrill Kelly: Do I get in the rotation and log 150 IP with sub 4 era ?

2:16	Ben Clemens: Yes, yes, no.

2:17	Ben Clemens: Sub-4 is a little aggressive, I think. But I do like Kelly’s stuff, and I like his stability. He’s basically a better version of Mike Leake I think.

2:17	Springer McSpaniel: Kikuchi has been up a few ticks on his FB and Sheffield has “spring training command” combined with a new sexy sinking fastball. Does this excite you, or file under “talk to me in June about this excitement of yours”?

2:17	Ben Clemens: So, take this with a grain of salt, because I am a baseball optimist.

2:17	Ben Clemens: I tend to think everyone is awesome until I see evidence otherwise.

2:17	Ben Clemens: But I’m really hyped for Kikuchi this year.

2:18	Ben Clemens: He showed up as better than expected on some of the expected pitch values I did

2:18	Ben Clemens: And I enjoy watching him pitch.

2:19	Ben Clemens: He touched 96 (!!) in his last start in spring, too. Maybe the gun was hot that day, but to me, the velo was always the biggest question, so I’m ready to believe.

2:19	brad penny for your thoughts: do you think Kwang-Hyun Kim will be contender for ROY?

2:19	Ben Clemens: Another pitcher with limited (or in his case no) MLB background

2:20	Ben Clemens: ROY eh, maybe and maybe not.

2:20	Ben Clemens: But I have watched him a few times this spring and I totally buy it. The two breaking balls are legit.

2:21	Ben Clemens: The slow curve is hilarious.

2:21	Ben Clemens: It’s a show-me pitch, but if he keeps the usage low, batters are just going to watch it go by. So hard to pull the trigger on big velo changes like that.

2:21	Ben Clemens: And then the slider looks nice, fastball plays.

2:22	Ben Clemens: He was awesome again today against the full Twins starting lineup – 4K and 2H in 3 IP

2:22	Ben Clemens: I’m a big believer, basically.

2:22	Breakouts: many are jumping on the Limet/fried/Gallen breakouts along with others. Who is the best bet? Who’s the riskiest ?

2:22	Ben Clemens: This saddens me, because I find Lamet a very fun pitcher (particularly his goofy slider)

2:22	Ben Clemens: But I think he’s the riskiest by far.

2:23	Ben Clemens: I have Fried as the best bet, because I just get it in a way that I don’t entirely with Gallen and Fried.

2:23	Ben Clemens: Sorry, with Gallen and Lamet.

2:23	Ben Clemens: Gallen is a guy where he has a bunch of okay pitches and somehow it all plays up together. But I worry that it’s fragile to one of them playing down, or to him losing a little feel. Lamet is so slider-reliant that it scares me a little. Fried just feels like the real deal.

2:23	Bryan: What do you think of the 3B battle in Atlanta? Who wins to open the season and is it the same guy getting starts in September?

2:24	Ben Clemens: I might have said this somewhere before, but I like Riley much more than Camargo.

2:24	Ben Clemens: I’ll give him the edge on the opening day start, and I think as soon as he gets the job, he holds onto it. I do worry that the Braves will jerk with his service time to try to get him below the super 2 threshold

2:25	Ben Clemens: Which would require, I think, 1+ month in the minors.

2:25	Ben Clemens: But he’s hit reasonably well this spring, and importantly has whiffed a lot less.

2:26	Ben Clemens: So maybe they just say eh, a guy like Riley should play, let’s put him in the majors.

2:26	Tommy: Aren’t you glad you don’t have to trade the market today? Sheesh

2:26	Ben Clemens: Oh boy.

2:26	Ben Clemens: My texts today have a lot of crying emojis.

2:26	Ben Clemens: Some joking, some real

2:27	Ben Clemens: I almost always am happy that I’m writing about baseball instead of in finance.

2:27	Ben Clemens: But today I’m especially happy.

2:27	Dubon/Edman: Looks like they are ticketed to super utility. Does that pull value down?

2:29	Ben Clemens: I don’t think so. If you’re talking about fantasy purposes, definitely not, because even though there’s not a lot of positional scarcity in baseball at the moment, having a bunch of positions for one guy makes it way easier to fill out a lineup.

2:29	Ben Clemens: In real life, being a super utility type is mostly a way to get more playing time

2:30	Ben Clemens: So maybe it impacts defense, but I think it’s mostly a plus.

2:30	Ben Clemens: Dubon, particularly, could win a spot pretty easily if they decided they didn’t feel like moving him around much.

2:31	Ben Clemens: Edman is a weirder case, but I think there are enough starts to go around there.

2:31	Ben: When and where do you think puig will be signed?

2:31	Ben Clemens: Dan thinks the Rangers should do it!

2:31	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rangers-should-turn-their-outfield-sit…

2:31	Ben Clemens: And Puigcarious is an awesome word.

2:32	Ben Clemens: I honestly have no clue what’s going to happen, so sure: Rangers.

2:32	Ben Clemens: I thought the Cardinals should have been in on him but it looks like O’Neill and Carlson are making me look silly. The Indians were never actually going to do it.

2:32	Ben Clemens: The Padres could get involved, but that doesn’t seem like their style to me.

2:32	Ben Clemens: Though a Pham/Puig locker room would make me seriously consider changing team allegiances.

2:32	Ben Clemens: They’re both so fun

2:33	Marcus: Hey Ben- what kind of role do you expect Graterol to fill for LA? Do you see him as just one of those Stephenson types this year? Big K’s, perhaps multiple innings but not really in the late innings mix?

2:33	Ben Clemens: I see him as exactly that. I don’t think they’re ready to say he can never start, though I don’t think he’ll start.

2:34	Ben Clemens: So doing some multi-inning stints while being a reliever is a good way to handle this. And honestly, the Dodgers are so deep that he probably won’t ever be an obvious top 5 starter for them, so getting some value from him in relief in the meantime is just good management.

2:34	Mets: Who emerges in the back end of the Mets rotation as a huge success? Wacha/Porcello/matz? And who’s toast?

2:34	Ben Clemens: It’s so weird to see all the optimism around Wacha this spring.

2:34	Ben Clemens: He was an anchor last year.

2:34	Ben Clemens: Like, the kind that drags you down, not the kind that stabilizes you.

2:35	Ben Clemens: He has basically one good pitch at this point I think, the changeup

2:35	Ben Clemens: Now admittedly, it’s a really good pitch!

2:35	Ben Clemens: But his curve and cutter are minus-minus (if that’s a thing), which puts a lot of pressure on a just okay fastball

2:35	Ben Clemens: I’m willing to believe in Matz and Porcello both.

2:36	Ben Clemens: Both of them are way overqualified as a fifth starter and above average as a fourth starter.

2:36	Ben Clemens: I’d take Porcello over Matz because I’m kind of in on his game in Citi

2:37	Ben Clemens: And I’ll say Wacha flames out, with some chance he becomes a decent reliever because he can get lefties and righties out, with short stints making his fastball play up.

2:37	Kiper: What Player on your board is Overrated/underrated the most?

2:38	Ben Clemens: This is kind of a weird take, but I think Yelich is being overrated. He was the most expensive player in my auction yesterday, and I don’t think that really makes sense.

2:38	Ben Clemens: But that’s only at the very top end, in terms of being overrated.

2:39	Ben Clemens: Below that I think that Gleyber is more of a risk to be just alright than people think.

2:40	Ben Clemens: In terms of underrated, I really do like Kim, though that’s a deeper league find. I thought Gerrit Cole was a bit low in my league, though it doesn’t look like he is overall. And lastly, Kyle Tucker! Love him, think he could easily just take right field over and run with it.

2:40	Joseph: Do you think there’s a good chance Lindblom can have a big impact in the brewers rotation. A tick above major league average? How do you see it shaping up

2:41	Ben Clemens: Yeah that sounds right. I haven’t really kept track of him in spring training but offhand teh strikeouts and walks look fine.

2:42	Also Ben: Do you know pitchers who tunnel better able to face batters more times through the order in general?

2:42	Ben Clemens: It’s a reasonable theory. That said, I haven’t seen any compelling evidence that it’s the case.

2:42	Ben Clemens: Tunneling is phenomenally hard to quantify, which makes studying something like that hard.

2:43	Ben Clemens: I have had a lot of trouble even working out a question like ‘do pitchers who vary pitch sequencing more do better a third time through’

2:43	Ben Clemens: And tunneling adds layers of difficulty on top of that.

2:43	Sanford: Thanks for chatting, Ben. Do you think there’s room for Pete Alonso to hit a higher ceiling than the ~5 WAR he put up last year? Seems like the best case scenario for a first baseman who’s not a Gold Glover and/or doesn’t have Miguel Cabrera’s hit tool

2:44	Ben Clemens: I think that’s probably roughly the ceiling. He’s never going to be a more walks than strikeouts guy, I don’t think, which means he can’t go the Votto route.

2:44	Ben Clemens: That just leaves the Cabrera/Pujols route, and I don’t think he’s really that guy.

2:45	Ben Clemens: 5 WAR is awesome! But it’s hard to have a dingers-and-K’s first baseman with a 7 WAR season or something stupid.

2:45	Thor: Ok- he seems to look good and healthy- does he remind everyone this year that he is not just a #2 and put together an ace like year?

2:45	Ben Clemens: Eh. Maybe! But I have had enough of the Thor experience to think that he’s probably just a good #2

2:45	Ben Clemens: Which is totally fine, and a great outcome, and he’s really fun to watch and so on.

2:45	Ben Clemens: But it just never seems to all add up, and I’m also a little worried about the loss of slider velocity last year.

2:46	Ben Clemens: He’s talked about trying to get the slider back faster again but it’s a little worrisome how variable it’s been.

2:46	Beeks: How excited should I be as a Brewers fan regarding the Yelich extension and the team’s future??

2:46	Ben Clemens: Oh, tremendously!

2:46	Ben Clemens: It’s such a good sign.

2:46	Ben Clemens: Will the deal work out? I’m not sure.

2:46	Ben Clemens: But I think it goes a long way towards ensuring that the Brewers keep trying.

2:47	Ben Clemens: And to their extreme credit, they’ve been very consistent in always trying to be good

2:47	Ben Clemens: I don’t always agree with the tactics they use, like I think that they had some weird free agency targets this year.

2:48	Ben Clemens: But I’m not remotely worried that they’re going to throw in the towel or plead poor or anything.

2:48	Ben Clemens: And wow is Milwaukee a fun place to catch a baseball game

2:49	Ben Clemens: I think if you’re a Brewers fan, you should be thrilled by this front office’s goals and methods.

2:49	Sir Nerdlington: I’ve mentally promoted you to Jeff Sullivan status where I make a point to read all of your articles. Thanks for doing what you do and being quite good at asking the interesting questions.

2:49	Ben Clemens: Thanks!

2:49	Ben Clemens: That said, c’mon, Jeff was on a completely different level to basically anyone else I’ve ever read.

2:49	Ben Clemens: I’m really thrilled to be compared to him but I think it’s wrong.

2:50	Ben Clemens: I’m pleased with how my writing has gone in the past year, but there’s plenty of room to get better still.

2:50

DJ: Who do you like more for fantasy baseball purposes: Peralta or Burnes? It sounds like Burnes might be ticketed to AAA to start. Could both of them find their way into rotation spots eventually? Both eligible as RPs in my league, and we have to start 5 RPs, so both seem like good gambles to take.

2:51	Ben Clemens: I think I like Peralta more. I’ve been Burne-ed by Burnes before, though I still like his stuff

2:52	Ben Clemens: But I’m just a little weirded out by the variability of his fastball

2:52	Ben Clemens: I don’t think he really knows where it’s going or how it’s cutting

2:52	Ben Clemens: And until he gets a little more consistency on that I will take Peralta

2:53	Ben Clemens: Burnes is higher upside but I just think Peralta is more likely to be good this year.

2:53

Derek: What’s your favorite stadium to watch baseball in? I’ll throw out Camden Yards – I know it kicked off the current wave of baseball stadium design, and is therefore the oldest of that group, but IMO it still holds up quite well against any stadium I’ve been to (which, granted, is not a whole lot – maybe 6 or 7).

2:53	Ben Clemens: I haven’t been to Camden in quite a while, sadly.

2:53	Ben Clemens: Not since the 2000’s

2:53	Ben Clemens: I loved it, though.

2:54	Ben Clemens: I live in SF

2:54	Ben Clemens: And obviously the stadium here is awesome

2:54	Ben Clemens: Though I’ll think of it as Pac Bell forever

2:54	Ben Clemens: But spare a thought for Citi, which I think is maybe the most underrated stadium in baseball.

2:55	Ben Clemens: The way they’ve built the concourse there, to where you can walk a lap around the stadium and always be able to see the action, is awesome.

2:55	Ben Clemens: There is literally nothing blocking your view.

2:55	Ben Clemens: It does have the tradeoff of making the upper decks further back, as Travis Sawchik has pointed out.

2:55	Ben Clemens: But I think the way it’s set up is just neat.

2:55	Ben Clemens: And New York weather lines up really well with baseball

2:56	Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s better than SF or SD or whatever

2:56	Ben Clemens: But I never really hear it mentioned.

2:56	Ben Clemens: Okay enough about Citi

2:56	Frankie Carbone: Does Bo Bichette finish 2020 as a top 10 SS?

2:57	Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say no, though without much confidence. I’m fading the SB projections we have for him, and that turns him into someone reasonably reliant on BABIP for value.

2:57	Ben Clemens: If he steals 20-25 bags, though, I’ll be wrong.

2:57	Frankie Carbone: Agree citi is terribly underrated, they do an excellent job with the fan experience and always get overlooked because of all the lolmets people love to talk about

2:58	Ben Clemens: Yeah there are plenty of comical things about the Mets!

2:58	Ben Clemens: But the field, and the fan experience in general, are well done.

2:58	Ben Clemens: I know Eno was only so-so on their beer options in his beer writeup.

2:58	Ben Clemens: But I really like the beer options there, and the food is also excellent, especially if you like Fuku sanwiches.

2:59	Ben Clemens: Now, when they play Cespedes at shortstop to get more offense into the lineup

2:59	Ben Clemens: No amount of stadium niceness will fix that

2:59	Ben Clemens: But until then!

2:59	Reggie: Miami is going to have a rough year, but they do have some interesting offensive players this year – who are you in on the most? And how much does the fact that they’re going to be beaten down by NL East aces on a daily basis factor in?

3:00	Ben Clemens: I have a stupid, irrational love for Miguel Rojas. He’s old now and not a breakout candidate or anything, but I just think he should get more love as an excellent defender.

3:00	Ben Clemens: He’s been held down by being on bad Marlins teams his whole career.

3:00	Ben Clemens: But he’d be a fan favorite on a good team.

3:01	Ben Clemens: In terms of players who might break out, I’ll take Brian Anderson and Isan Diaz. They’re polar opposites in profile but I think both could be good.

3:01	Ben Clemens: Anderson is almost cheating, he’s already on the border of all star level, but again- Marlins!

3:01	Ben Clemens: And Diaz has the tools, and so eh, maybe he’ll figure it out.

3:02	Ben Clemens: As to the NL East thing, it matters a little, but not enough to get me out on Anderson.

3:02	Dave in London: I know it’s spring training, but do you have any concerns about Colome? Do you think he’s be the White Sox closer in August?

3:02	Ben Clemens: I do not think he’ll still be the closer.

3:02	Ben Clemens: Bummer.

3:02	Ben Clemens: (will be the closer)

3:05	Ben Clemens: Sorry guys, I just had a salsa related pause – I have some ghost pepper salsa

3:05	Ben Clemens: And boy was it too hot

3:06	Ben Clemens: Anyway I think they should have Bummer as closer already

3:06	Ben Clemens: But I think by August it will have happened.

3:06	Overbearing Padre: If the Pads want to add some better offense before the season, where do you think they should look?

3:06	Ben Clemens: Puig.

3:06	Ben Clemens: Not a lot of pre-opening day options honestly

3:06	Ben Clemens: But he’s still out there.

3:06	Ben Clemens: I’m not even sure he’s that much better than Wil Myers

3:06	Ben Clemens: But he’s a better defender at least.

3:07	Verlander: Is anyone really sad about the Astros in 2020 though? Especially a normal, not surprising result (older pitcher injury) rather than some “oh the boos got to them” thing that might occur as a dumb narrative.

3:07	Ben Clemens: I mean, I don’t want anyone to get injured. I’m sad that I get to see less star players.

3:07	Ben Clemens: As a consumer of baseball, I just want awesome players as much as possible.

3:07	Ben Clemens: But yeah, it’s not like this happened to the Brewers or the Padres or some feel-good team

3:08	brad penny for your thoughts: how weird is it that Yairo Munoz went AWOL and just left spring training?

3:08	Ben Clemens: I’m so curious to know what happened, but I don’t think we’ll ever get the whole story.

3:08	Ben Clemens: If you’re interested in a hilariously well-detailed account of the machinations involved, there’s this:

3:08	Ben Clemens: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/3/8/21170010/transaction-analysis-3-…

3:08	Ben Clemens: But what a bizarre story. I hope he is doing okay.

3:09	Derek: My suggestion to my friends the other day to stop the spread of coronavirus was to put ghost pepper salsa on everyone’s hands so they don’t touch their faces!

3:09	Ben Clemens: The face touching thing is weird to me. I apparently don’t touch my face that much, because I’ve been trying to avoid doing it and haven’t had much trouble.

3:09	Ben Clemens: My wife touches her face constnatly, it’s been a real struggle for her.

3:09	Ben Clemens: And we were on a ski trip with some friends this weekend, and they also varied a lot

3:10	Ben Clemens: I will say, if this salsa touched my eyes, game over.

3:10	DRB: I’m perplexed by Jose Ramirez’s walk rate spike in 2018. Do you have any idea how someone could average 7-9% walk rate then suddenly spike to 15%? Where do you see him this year?

3:12	Ben Clemens: It comes down a little if you exclude IBB’s, but it’s still crazy.

3:12	Ben Clemens: I would argue that it was largely driven by pitcher behavior.

3:13	Ben Clemens: He faced a career-low zone rate, and consequently a career-low first strike rate, and he’s just not a hacker – he also had a career low chase rate that year, which helps

3:13	Ben Clemens: I think pitchers realized that they couldn’t go that scared of a little dude who doesn’t swing much

3:13	Ben Clemens: But anyway, I kinda think it’s a mirage and he’s a true-talent 7-8% walk guy

3:14	Ben Clemens: whoops was off by a finger on the number keys

3:14	Ben Clemens: 8-9%

3:14	Appa Yip Yip: Danny Jansen clubbes a grand slam for his third HR of the spring. If he lives up to the offensive reputation he had as a minor leaguer while maintaining his defensive improvements, does he take a run at Realmuto’s crown in the next few years?

3:14	Ben Clemens: That’s a high bar to clear. But yes, I’m in on Jansen.

3:15	Ben Clemens: I continue to think the Reds should be trying to acquire him

3:15	Ben Clemens: Despite having Tyler Stephenson

3:15	Ben Clemens: But I think he has top-5 C potential easily

3:16	Beeks: I know it’s spring training, but Orlando Arcia is hitting tanks at an alarming rate. He has had extreme hot stretches before (ex. 2018 playoffs), but how likely is it that he puts up a close to league average season offensively?

3:16	Ben Clemens: Uh…. very unlikely. This isn’t an Amed Rosario situation where most of the underlying stuff is there

3:17	Ben Clemens: Like he had 15 bombs last year and a 61 wRC+

3:18	Ben Clemens: He can’t just run into a few homers and have it work

3:18	Ben Clemens: He has a combination of no power, no patience, and some swing and miss

3:18	Ben Clemens: and I don’t quite get how he doesn’t hit more doubles given his speed

3:18	Ben Clemens: But I’m kinda out. I did love his bunt double, though.

3:18	Luis or Kyle: Luis Robert or Kyle Tucker? dynasty

3:18	Ben Clemens: So, I have never been in a dynasty league, so this is basically just me projecting which player I like more.

3:19	Ben Clemens: But I’ll take Tucker, actually. I do like Robert quite a lot, and I think I’m probably higher than Eric (and previously Kiley) were on him.

3:19	Ben Clemens: I’m a performance over tools guy in the minors, and he has both.

3:20	Ben Clemens: But Tucker was also awesome in the minors, they’re a similar age, and some of Robert’s value comes from defense, which isn’t helping you in fantasy.

3:20	Derek: New drinking game: drink every time someone asks a question that starts with “I know it’s spring training, but…”

3:20	Ben Clemens: Not trying to do any permanent damage to anyone’s liver here.

3:21	Ben Clemens: Spring Training is for dreaming!

3:21	Ben Clemens: I literally just had an article go up about Jonathan Hernandez:

3:21	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/youve-never-heard-of-jonathan-hernandez-bu…

3:21	Ben Clemens: Dream big

3:22	Ben Clemens: Dream of Orlando Arcia being a league average hitter, or James Karinchak gaining command

3:22	Ben Clemens: That’s what baseball is for, imo

3:22	Nate: Have any thoughts on some of the Astros younger arms? Obviously no Verlander is bummer…but I’m kind of wondering how much upside guys like Josh James and Bryan Abreu would have if they get legit shots to start with the big club

3:22	Ben Clemens: Josh James is probably the biggest winner here

3:22	Ben Clemens: And he has real #2 starter upside I think

3:23	The Ghost of Wade Boggs: I know it’s spring training, but what is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallon?

3:23	Ben Clemens: African, or European?

3:24

Kyle: With respect to Nick Solak, he’s hit well at every level (though I know his cup of coffee at the end of 2019 is obviously too much to hope for in 2020), where and how often do you expect him to play this season? Every week it feels like he’s rumoured for a new position/role in Texas; and it’s starting to make me wary.

3:24	Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s weird. Solak is fast and hits a ton, they should find somewhere to leave him so he can work on his defense there.

3:25	Ben Clemens: I too am worried that they haven’t found a consistent spot for him.

3:25	Ben Clemens: We have him projected as LF/CF/3B/2B

3:25	Ben Clemens: And like, no, don’t do that to someone who struggles on defense.

3:26	Cube Jockey: Thoughts on Schildt as a manager? All my goodwill was used up by him riding Wainwright way too long in both of his playoff starts last year.

3:26	Ben Clemens: Not for this august website, but I wrote about his decisions last playoffs

3:26	Ben Clemens: I hated them

3:26	Ben Clemens: And despite that, I think he’s a fine manager.

3:27

Ben Clemens: I truly don’t get why he was so afraid of the bullpen in the playoffs last year, but aside from that, I’m pretty happy with what he’s done. And he actually seems really good at making playing time work. A worse manager might not have been able to make the Carpenter/Edman situation work.

3:27	Ben Clemens: I’m optimistic, is basically my point.

3:27	DRB: Yordan: The projections are stupid on him (in a good way). Has he always been seen as this offensive monster?

3:27	Ben Clemens: No, I think projections are gonna take a second to catch up. His season last year was truly historic.

3:28	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/youre-probably-underrating-yordan-alvarez/

3:28	Ben Clemens: I never miss a chance to promote my own work.

3:28	tom: as if we need another reason to drink!

3:28	Ben Clemens: Precisely. I do enough ‘guess I’m staying in tonight, let’s have a few beers and play board games’ these days that I don’t need to also drink when people are optimistic about their team.

3:29	Ben Clemens: The world is scary, so I choose to be happy about baseball.

3:30	I am Me: Which Josh bell do we get in 2020?

3:30	Ben Clemens: This is maybe silly, but I think closer to first half JB than second half.

3:31	Ben Clemens: It’s very encouraging to me that he had some disastrous batted ball luck in the second half and was still above a 100 wRC+ due to his walks and strikeouts working out.

3:32	Ben Clemens: He underperformed his xwOBA (not predictive! But still interesting)

3:32	Ben Clemens: And he mostly looked still okay

3:33	Ben Clemens: THe specific thing I was worried about was his mechanics getting all wonky again.

3:33	Ben Clemens: And that never happened, which I think is a HUGE mark in his favor.

3:34	Ben Clemens: Alright guys, with that, I’m going to call it a day slightly early today. I have a few pre-emptive quarantine protection related errands to run.

3:34	Ben Clemens: And I need to get started on some positional power rankings, which will be coming your way soon.

3:34	Ben Clemens: Have a great day, everyone, and thanks again for taking the time to hang out with me. See you same time next week!

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG