Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 4/12/21

April 12, 2021

2:00	Ben Clemens: Hey everyone

2:00	Ben Clemens: Someone asked a question that I feel very passionately about, and it seems like a perfect thing to start the chat on. This one is going to be participatory — if you come up with any ideas, let me know, and I’ll keep talking about it throughout the chat

2:00	Guest: What actions should teams be taking to discourage wooing in the ballpark?

2:01	Ben Clemens: I hadn’t thought about this until now, but it’s of GREAT import to me as a baseball watcher

2:01	Ben Clemens: What the HECK makes people want to woo?

2:01	Dee Arby: If it’s in Philly, throw a battery at them.

2:02	Appa Yip Yip: Have you ever thought about doing historical comparisons of stuff and velocity between great pitchers of bygone eras and their closest modern counterparts? It would be interesting to see like, ah yes, Sandy Koufax’s closest comp is … Jaime Garcia. Baseball be hard.

2:02	Ben Clemens: Yikes

2:02	Ben Clemens: Yeah, the comparisons aren’t really 1:1 right? Koufax would have much better access to training and recovery in modern day

2:03	Ben Clemens: But yes, it’s always remarkable how much bigger/faster/stronger/etc athletes of today rae

2:03

Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: I have heard for it seems like my whole life that baseball is 70% mental, but then when it comes to positions change it shouldnt affect your hitting. Cant it be said that part of Kingery and Senzel (I know hes hitting now) struggles be from not having a position every day you know you are going to play?

2:04	Ben Clemens: Oh, I think that it for sure matters

2:05	Ben Clemens: I think that the mental aspect of the game is a place with a big “sabermetric” blindspot and something that good managers excel at

2:05	Ben Clemens: And of course constantly switching positions is tough on you as a player if you’re not feeling confident as is

2:06	CI lover: we know baseball stats are random, why aren’t confidence intervals used widely? It’s weird that we accept that small samples aren’t trustworthy but then don’t take that far enough and actually figure out how trustworthy it is

2:06	Ben Clemens: Excellent question. I think they should be reported more for sure. I cite this a lot, but

2:06	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-new-way-to-look-at-sample-size/

2:07	Ben Clemens: This thing displays stats with confidence intervals and I love it

2:07	Plutarch: Give people actually songs to sing (as in European football). Much more unifying experience and nimrods don’t feel the need to woop

2:07	Ben Clemens: I like the idea of this a lot

2:07	Jason: I think Josh Reddick is partly to blame for this – at least, that’s what brought on a bunch of woo-ing in Houston, because of his ties to wrestling and Ric Flair

2:07	David: What is wooing?

2:08	Ben Clemens: Wooing is that sharp ‘woooo!!!!’ that you’ll hear in the background of some games

2:08	Ben Clemens: Seems to happen more in Midwestern games, th ough that could be confirmation bias on my part, b/c I first noticed it at Reds games

2:08	Appa Yip Yip: How is wooing any worse than any other kind of cheering?

2:08	Ben Clemens: The sound drives me crazy

2:09	Ben Clemens: It’s so constant… the woo-ers seem to woo totally disconnected from the flow of the game, they’re just wooing

2:09	Ben Clemens: and b/c of the pitch it really pops relative to most crowd noise

2:09	JC: Trout is leading MLB in WAR, so stats now officially matter, correct?

2:09	Ben Clemens: Sam Miller’s Rule is an excellent one

2:09	Ben Clemens: That said, haha, no, it’s supposed to take Trout longer to get in front!

2:10	Guest: My first trip out of San Diego (got the J&J a month ago) in a year was to see my Padres in Arlington. I highly recommend seeing your team throw their first no-hitter. Also, the ballpark sucks. Old Arlington was way better (also the opinion of the Ranger fans behind us).

2:10	Ben Clemens: Amazing on both counts

2:10	Ben Clemens: Congrats, and congrats

2:11	Ben Clemens: As a Musgrove stock owner, I’m into it too

2:11	James: Is Cronenworth better than we thought? He has swung and missed only 2 times on over 180 pitches so far. His at bats looked super quality on all of the broadcast I’ve seen.

2:11	Ben Clemens: If there’s something I wasn’t worried about translating to the majors in his game, it’s the hit tool

2:11	Ben Clemens: His minor league k/bb numbers and whiff rates really popped

2:12	Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’s going to continue his current 0.5% swinging strike rate (lol!) but I do think he’ll continue making a ton of contact with good plate discipline

2:12	Appa Yip Yip: Okay so to stop wooing you should give everyone vuvezelas problem solved

2:12	Ben Clemens: I think of wooing as manual vuvuzelas

2:13	Matt: No questions, just saying I got to be on tv after harper’s hr last night and was very happy to be back at a baseball stadium

2:13	Ben Clemens: Congrats

2:13	Ben Clemens: Baseball is great

2:13	Micah: How many live games do you plan to attend this season?

2:13	Ben Clemens: I hope a lot, like 10-20. I live pretty close to Oracle and it’s really fun to watch games there

2:13	Marko from Tropoja: Have to disagree with the guy claiming the new GLF in Arlington sucks. The sight lines are pretty good. And this is coming from an LA native now living in Dallas.

2:14	Ben Clemens: I’m a really big fan of sightlines, I think they’re the most underrated part of parks

2:14	Ben Clemens: Do they have clean lines to the field all the way around the lower concourse? I wish more stadiums did that

2:14	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: How many pitchers do you think will hit 200 IP this season coming off the shortened season? And how many IP will lead MLB?

2:14	Ben Clemens: Hm…. I think that 2 pitchers will top 200 IP this year

2:15	Ben Clemens: Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom

2:15	Ben Clemens: I’m far more likely to be low than high on that, but I think teams will just be super cautious

2:15	Bernie: Is there a better 1-2 in baseball than Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes?

2:16	Ben Clemens: I’m a really big buyer in the Burnes stay-broken-out hype

2:16	Ben Clemens: I think he might be better than Woodruff

2:16	Ben Clemens: That said, I’ll take deGrom and whoever you want to call the Mets’ #2 over them for sure

2:16	Ben Clemens: deGrom is ludicrous

2:16	Tom: Should the Cardinals worry? About pitching, hitting, the Brewers?

2:17	Ben Clemens: Let’s take these one at a time

2:17	Ben Clemens: Pitching, yeah

2:17	Ben Clemens: Their plan of coming into the season with an unsettled starting rotation has gone roughly how you’d expect

2:17	Ben Clemens: I really like Oviedo, but you can’t be thrilled that he’s looked like the second-best starter so far despite not making a start

2:18	Ben Clemens: But the broader problem is that they’re using swingmen as their 3-5 starters due to injury

2:18	Ben Clemens: Maybe 4-5 depending on how you feel about Martinez

2:18	Ben Clemens: Hitting, nah, looks fine. The Brewers? Eh, they’ll be good, but maybe not more of a threat than the other good NLC teams

2:18	Guest: Ha. Terrible food (not local at all, generic Tex-Mex), the view is the old stadium, surrounding area is a parking lot, nothing Texas about the park itself. Two great screens, but one is only usable by 40% of the park and the smaller one is too small for most.

2:19	Guest: Also, beer it is terrible. Hopadillo and that is about it.

2:19	Ben Clemens: Now these things sound not great

2:19	Ben Clemens: Food and beer are right up there as well for me

2:19	Ben Clemens: Beside sight lines

2:19	Cool Papa Bell: Corey Knebel: Taking Jensen’s job this season?

2:19	Ben Clemens: Yes. Why did the Brewers trade him??

2:20	Ben Clemens: I just don’t quite get why they needed to give up a reliever of that caliber, but hey, the Dodgers get richer

2:20	Ben Clemens: I’m kinda out on Kenley at this point, and Knebel looks like as good of a bet as any to take over the role

2:21	Ben Clemens: Another Kenley question from earlier:

2:21

BettsBellingerCaruso: Kenley jansen just baffles me

Against A’s he averaged like 89 mph on the cutter

yesterday he averaged 93.5 mph and his vertical movement on the cutter was basically the same as his 2017 version, average spin ont he cutter going from 2553 on the year to 2856 that day

He was averaging 90.9 mph on the cutter this year. yesterday he averaged 93.5 mph just like his 2012-17 self.

I honestly just don’t get it.

2:21	Ben Clemens: Yeah, this is why I think he’s going to lose the job

2:21	Ben Clemens: That’s just too hrad to rely on

2:21	BringBackDeSpanielHair: I flipped Ohtani for L. Castillo after his brutal first start. Odds that Shohei the pitcher makes me regret that?

2:22	Ben Clemens: Not too high, I don’t think. Castillo is a house, and Ohtani’s real life value outstrips his fantasy value

2:22	Ben Clemens: Just for workload reasons

2:22

True Submariners: The other day (yesterday woah time) on SNLA with Hersh and Joe Davis, the pair compared Trea Turner to Mookie Betts (in between talking/gushing about Valuenzuela). I looked at it with a friend and if Trea develops a *tad* more power he very well could be the shortstop Mookie. Thoughts?

2:22	Ben Clemens: First, the Valenzuela stuff was awesome

2:23	Ben Clemens: Second, I don’t really think so?

2:24	Ben Clemens: In his career, Turner has struck out 18.1% of the time and walked 7.6% of the time

2:24	Ben Clemens: Betts is at 12.9% and 10.2%

2:24	Ben Clemens: Those are HUGELY different

2:24	Ben Clemens: That’s not to say Turner can’t be a really good player

2:24	Ben Clemens: He IS a really good player

2:25	Ben Clemens: But Mookie’s greatness comes from the fact that he does everything so well, and Turner would need to improve in several categories to start looking similar

2:25	LFC Mike: Appa Yip Yip if I hear one vuvezela I will hold you personally accountable. That noise is still in my head from the WC in South Africa. A horrible idea.

2:25	Ben Clemens: You’ve heard it here, a grudge match between two chatters

2:25	Knebel: The Brewers were going to non-tender Knebel. Not that they should of, but they didn’t want to pay him Arb $ coming off that injury and bad 2020.

2:25	Ben Clemens: They shouldn’t have been planning on NT’ing him!

2:26	Ben Clemens: Clearly he had value, based on the fact that they received value for trading him, but I think they sold too low

2:26	Ben Clemens: I guess if it was that or JBJ

2:26	Ben Clemens: I mean I’d probably take JBJ? It’s close I think

2:27	Guest: I don’t mean to be a jerk, but I am trying to see the Padres in every park. Up to 24 or 25. Five factors: 1) Food (how good and how local); 2) Beer (same); 3) View from behind home plate up high; 4) Surrounding area; 5) Cool stuff at the park

2:27	Ben Clemens: My factors are: 1)food 2)sightlines 3)beer 4)views

2:28	Ben Clemens: Weather is an overriding factor but that’s harder to control

2:28	BringBackDeSpanielHair: Is Travis Shaw back to being good now?

2:29	Ben Clemens: It kinda feels that way

2:29	Ben Clemens: I never quite understood why he got bad?

2:30	Ben Clemens: And I’m not saying he’ll stay this good

2:30	Ben Clemens: But he just suddenly couldn’t hit anything, and now his contact rate went way back up

2:30	Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: Knebel is nasty but isnt he always a pitch away from losing control or getting hurt? Dodgers have the money to afford to make those mistakes. Brewers dont right?

2:31	Ben Clemens: So, I hear this argument a lot about small-market teams (the Brewers payroll is around $100mm)

2:31	Ben Clemens: I basically don’t agree with it? Like, sure, the Dodgers can afford to sign many injury risks and see who shakes out because of their budget

2:31	Ben Clemens: But if you can pick between 90% dominant reliever 10% hurt

2:32	Ben Clemens: and 100% decent fourth outfielder

2:32	Ben Clemens: I’d argue that if you’re a small market team, you SHOULD be embracing the risk

2:32	Ben Clemens: If you smooth away all the variance, you’re making it harder on yourself

2:32	Ben Clemens: Because you can’t spike a good season out of someone

2:33	Ben Clemens: Now, maybe they just thought that Knebel wasn’t 90%/10% but instead 50% good 50% washed

2:33	Ben Clemens: But I don’t like the idea of small teams avoiding risk

2:33	LFC Mike: Ben, vuvezales apart…..has the closer job in Cleveland gone firmly to Clase..or will it take a few more saves to get him 100% entrenched….

2:33	Ben Clemens: I think it’ll take a few more saves to get him entrenched, but I think he’ll end up winning the job

2:34	Ben Clemens: I am regretting trading him in an Ottoneu league

2:35	cortezthakillah: Is there any hope for Keston Hiura? I fear he will begin losing time to Vogelbach.

2:35	Ben Clemens: I’m down on Hiura, and think that the Brewers should be considering Big Dan over him against righties

2:35	Ben Clemens: There’s definitely hope for him, he produces really loud contact when he hits the ball

2:36	Ben Clemens: But the whiff rate is just totally unsustainable

2:36	Ben Clemens: You can’t be an average hitter when you miss that often

2:36	Ben Clemens: I dunno what they need to do to get him right again, but there’s a reason I predicted Wong to out-wRC+ him

2:36

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Hot take: crowd noises are bad, being able to hear the players yell and the sounds of the game is better. No woos, no boos, let alone the wave or heckling. Advantage amateur, minor league, and low-turnout MLB games. I’ll allow playoff crowd noises for atmosphere, but peak baseball is quiet summer evenings where the only loud noises are the crack of the bat and the PA system operated by some guy whose been doing it since before you were born.

2:37	Ben Clemens: Hm, I don’t really agree with that

2:37	Ben Clemens: I do love hearing the players yell, but I also love the reaction of the crowd, and I enjoy the occasional heckle

2:37	Ben Clemens: Harper correcting a heckler’s pronunciation was awesome, for example

2:37	Ben Clemens: That said, I really like the crack of the bat and hearing players talk

2:38	T: Let’s get the obvious question out if the way, what the hell was that safe call at home last night?

2:38	Scott: I’d love the MLB replay guy in NY to explain exactly when Bohm touched home plate in the 9th inning last night. It’s mind blowing that they got it so wrong. Shouldn’t the Braves protest the game?

2:38	Ben Clemens: Better calls have been made

2:39	Ben Clemens: I see why they had trouble overturning the call on the field, b/c every angle had a different problem with it

2:39	Ben Clemens: It was like 5 angles that were each 95% conclusive, or whatever

2:39	Ben Clemens: But yes, clearly the wrong call, and if replay isn’t for handling situations like that, maybe we should have less replay

2:40	Moose_Bolton: Any of the early season player developments you’re buying? I think J.D. Martinez is going to actually bounce back, and I’m also buying the Vlad Jr. breakout. Obviously both not to this extent necessarily, but in general.

2:40	Ben Clemens: In on Martinez, last year was a weird short blip and while he’s aging, he’s still a great hitter

2:40	Ben Clemens: As for Vlad

2:40	Moonlight Graham: Both Vladdy’s launch angle and walk rate numbers are up to start the season. Which do you think he’s more likely to sustain over a whole season and which would you prefer he maintains?

2:41	Ben Clemens: I think he’s more likely to sustain the walk rate, but I’d be more encouraged if he holds the angle

2:41	Ben Clemens: If he sustains the high launch angle, he’ll draw the walks by himself

2:42	Roger: I wooed my then-girlfriend, now-wife, at a Braves game and we ended up on kiss cam. no regrets. I see no reason to discourage wooing at games as long as it remains PG.

2:42	Ben Clemens: Haha that style of wooing is fine

2:42	Bucfan: Cubs starting pitching is dreadful. I don’t think they have a starter that deals above 90 mph, and their last two starts, their pitchers gave up 15 runs – TO THE PIRATES. Chances that Bryant is with the team in four months?

2:42	Ben Clemens: It’s low. Their pitching outside of Hendricks feels rickety

2:43	Ben Clemens: I’ll put the odds at 35%. The rest of the Central is also trash, which is their best hope

2:43	FK: Someone in my Ottoneu league just cut Javier Baez at $19. I already have Lindor as my primary SS but lack some MI depth and could afford him. Is he worth it? (Sorry for change of topic)

2:43	Ben Clemens: I’d like to know this too. I kind of think no? I own him at about the same price

2:44	Ben Clemens: Can’t bring myself to cut bait, though

2:44	Cambodian Creamsicle: We’re at that point of the season where fantasy owners are having to decide between Jed Lowrie and Donovan Solano. All is right in the world.

2:44	Ben Clemens: That eternal rite of spring

2:44	Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

2:44	Ben Clemens: Ah, regular season form

2:44	Ben Clemens: I consider you to have made at least one great movie

2:44	Micah: Red Sox-Twins today postponed?

2:44	Ben Clemens: Sounds that way

2:45	BringBackDeSpanielHair: Excited to see what Robby Ray can do with some extra velo (and apparently decent command this spring)

2:45	Ben Clemens: I am feeling good about Ray this year

2:45	Ben Clemens: In looking back at our offseason coverage, I wrote about him a lot — SP rankings, his signing with the Jays, and the top 50 free agents post

2:46	Ben Clemens: I like the fact that he went back to the old delivery. I don’t think he’s going to suddenly be an ace, but I do think he’ll be back to what he was at his peak in AZ… a guy who we all say “he could be an ace!” about

2:46	Angels is the playoffs?: It could happen.

2:47	Ben Clemens: Above 50% in our playoff odds, and I think they have an okay shot at taking down the Astros, who are thin

2:48	Ben Clemens: I remain very down on the A’s

2:48	Ben Clemens: And they have also been unlucky so far, Rosenthal getting hurt is brutal

2:48	Ben Affleck: BEN.AFFLECK.

2:48	Ben Clemens: Equal representation

2:48	v2micca: I’m a Braves fan. So, I’m ridiculously biased. But after seeing this story, I’m wondering how anyone could hate Freddie Freeman: https://www.mlb.com/news/fans-signed-ball-freddie-freeman-bryce-harper

2:48	Ben Clemens: There are people who hate Freddie Freeman?

2:49	Ben Clemens: That’s shocking to me

2:49	Ben Clemens: Totally agree with you, though

2:49	He’s a Jolly Good Oberkfellow: Are you buying into the Byron Buxton breakout?

2:49	Ben Clemens: Blah

2:49	Ben Clemens: I don’t like being a downer about Buxton

2:50	Ben Clemens: But I don’t think he’s a ton different than a 110 wRC+ hitter (roughly where our projectoins were) going forward

2:50	Ben Clemens: He’s obviously having an insane start

2:50	Ben Clemens: But I don’t think he’s going to keep barreling up a third of his batted balls nad hitting homers on 50% of his fly balls

2:50	Ben Clemens: He’s still SO aggressive at the plate, chase rate in the 40s

2:52	Ben Clemens: This is the hottest he’s ever been, and maybe I’m guilty of putting too much weight on the past, but I just don’t think he can keep up the insane batted ball quality

2:52	LFC Mike: Do you think Rougned Odor will be a knockout acquisition by the Yankees or a swing and miss?

2:52	Ben Clemens: I’d say he has a puncher’s chance of sticking on the roster

2:54	Ben Clemens: Don’t think he’s there after Voit returns, but I like the idea, and they really did need one more person to cover MI if they want LeMahieu to get time at 3B and 1B

2:55	Jeff: Craig Kimbrel or Kris Bryant: who is more back?

2:55	Ben Clemens: I’ll be honest – I haven’t seen any of Kimbrel’s appearances yet this year

2:55	Ben Clemens: So I’m extremely scouting the stat line, which is never great in such a small sample

2:56	Ben Clemens: That said, I like his plan — throw something in the zone on 0-0

2:56	Ben Clemens: And then throw only curves until the end of time

2:57	FK: What pitcher has surprised you most this year? I know it’s early days.

2:57	Ben Clemens: Definitely Glasnow. I really didn’t expect a third pitch to appear out of nowhere

2:58	Ben Clemens: If we’re talking performance rather than the underlying building blocks, I’ll say Sandy Alcantara

2:58	Ben Clemens: I never quite got the hype around Alcantara, but he’s looked quite solid so far this year

2:58	Lunch Angle: Reds post-hype pitchers: Jeff Hoffman and Jose De Leon have been intriguing in their first two starts. Do you think either of them have much of a chance of breaking out?

2:59	Ben Clemens: I’m more interested in Hoffman, but only b/c I’m suffering from De Leon fatigue

2:59	Ben Clemens: I read about him as a pick to click so many times that I’ve switched into prove-it-to-me mode

3:00	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: How could anyone hate Freddie? https://www.instagram.com/p/B-DeVpEhHNB/

3:00	Bucfan: My nominee for FA candidate – Phillip Evans. Multi-position, very low K rate his entire career, hard-hit rate high, looks like he will produce BA, OBP, R, some HR, RBI, decent slugging, good BB rate. Any interest in him as a free agent nobody or $1 auction pick-up who winds up producing?

3:01	Ben Clemens: I think he makes a lot of sense that way, if he’s good I think it’ll be in a fantasy-friendly way. Probably going to be batting at the top of the lineup, solid average, get a few homers in there

3:01	matty: Would you rather have Fletcher or Croneworth going forward>

3:02	Ben Clemens: Fletcher, but I’d be happy to have both

3:02	Ben Clemens: Cronenworth is a really awesome player, but Fletcher is a premium defender with a league average bat

3:03	Fernando Tatis-Buck Jr.: Clase now solidified as primary closer?

3:04	Ben Clemens: We have him that way on Roster Resource. I kind of think it will be some blend of him and Karinchak, but Jason is great at this stuff

3:04	Emmanuel Clase: I’m the man. Clase closed!

3:04	Ben Clemens: I have an irrational attachment to any player who I wrote up early in their career

3:05	Ben Clemens: Clase, Nick Anderson, Jonathan Hernandez

3:05	Ben Clemens: And that cutter is FUN

3:05	Ben Clemens: Clase has the added benefit of easy puns

3:05	BringBackDeSpanielHair: I hate roto. There… I said it. I love points leagues, and weekly H2H matchups. AmI crazy?

3:05	Ben Clemens: I like H2H quite a bit

3:06

Confused: I am a little confused by the projected standings page. The YTD run differential and the ROS run differential sum to the Full Season run differential. However, the YTD RS/G and the ROS RS/G do not ciombine in any way for the Full Season RS/G. For example, Brewers have 4.22 RS/G project for 4.60, but then the full season is 4.85. What is going on there?

3:06	Ben Clemens: Hm, I’m honestly not sure. I’ll ask around

3:07	Cambodian Creamsicle: H2H Roto is awesome!

3:07	David: Agreed, refuse to play roto

3:07	Ben Clemens: I think that’s one of my favorite parts of fantasy football, the H2H nature

3:07	Ben Clemens: And so I’m definitely in favor of baseball picking it up

3:08	Wild Thing Vaughn: Hey Ben, any logic to how the White Sox are handling Andrew Vaughn right now? Feels like they’re doing their best Rockies impersonation while also losing a year of service time.

3:10	Ben Clemens: Um… Yeah, I am kinda hoping he had a minor injury. He was playing everyday-ish and then had three straight days off before playing again yesterday. Not sure why the layoff but he’s looked fine so far

3:10	Ben Clemens: Weird TLR stuff maybe? He had an issue playing young players in StL

3:10	Dee Arby: The case against H2H is easy. Players are streaky. Therefore the H2H aspect is fluky compared to roto.

3:10	Ben Clemens: Sure, but that’s why you don’t play only one week to settle the season

3:10	Ben Clemens: There’s more inherent variance for sure, but that’s kind of fun

3:10	Ben Clemens: We’re not out here playing chess

3:11	Matt: Should the Rays think about trying Meadows at 1B next year? He’s DH’ing more than Yoshi and Yandy so I guess they don’t seem to trust him in the outfield.

3:11	Ben Clemens: Yes, I think they should

3:11	Ben Clemens: They seemed like they were trying to protect Arozarena from fielding last year, and this year Meadows has taken over that role

3:12

H2H: In my H2H league, we play 12 categories H2H, but then the standings are the categories. So this week I am 5-7 after week 1, rather than 0 wins and 1 loss. It seems this is normal in Fantasy Baseball, but I don’t like it. If we are playing H2H, I want to either win or lose (or tie) that week. Am I crazy?

3:12	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m a bigger fan of the win/lose/tie per week style

3:12	Jeff: As a hardcore MLB fan, can I consider myself something of a business man? I know all the buzzwords and buzz strategies…Rebuildz…Controlz…Finger on the pulse!

3:12	Ben Clemens: You need to scream ‘efficiency’ more often

3:12	Ben Clemens: and ‘synergize’

3:13	Jeff: Nothing pisses me off more than inefficiency in sports

3:13	Jeff: Nothing

3:13	Ben Clemens: Now you’re getting it!

3:13	Bucfan: “Years of control”

3:13

Dan: Can you shed some insight on how minor league rosters work? Like they must get sent pitchers who need to rest not throw for a day. How do they balance coving 9 innings but also leaving enough people fresh? if their catcher gets called up to the majors well you still need two catchers to start your game right? What if the hot prospect and the rehabing vet both play the same position?

3:14	Ben Clemens: This sounds like an excellent question for Kevin, or maybe Eric. I’m in the dark on it as well, and I think it would be REALLY interesting to learn about

3:14	Guest: Any thoughts on Drew Smyly after last night’s start? Have some back end starters in him, Peralta, Rodon, Kikuchi, Minor all based on spring velo that are holding roster spots until Sale and Severino come back. Can you rank them ROS?

3:15	Ben Clemens: Last night didn’t really change my view of Smyly, which is that he’s probably not someone you’re overjoyed to be counting on but that baseball is hard and requires a lot of pitchers

3:15	Ben Clemens: For fantasy, I’ve got Peralta/Minor/Kikuchi in a tier by themselves ahead of the other two

3:15	Ben Clemens: I’m a big long-term Peralta believer so I’d have him first

3:15	Bucfan: “We hope to efficiently utilize the years of control,and develop synergy between our AAA roster and major league team.”

3:16	Jake: Is Luke Weaver going to be a good pitcher, solid, or barely hold onto his spot in the roation?

3:16	Ben Clemens: Solid

3:16	Ben Clemens: Another guy who I constnatly think will be better than his results

3:16	Ben Clemens: When his changeup is working, he’s really really good

3:16	Ben Clemens: The lack of a breaking pitch that he can both command and miss bats with is going to make it really hard for him to be an ace

3:17	Ben Clemens: But his fastball plays better than you’d think and it works really well with the change. I think that’s enough to be a 3rd starter type

3:17	Dee Arby: Speaking of chess, do you play chess? I challenged Symborski years ago but he got busy cleaning up cat puke or something.

3:17	Ben Clemens: I played chess as a kid, but I stopped in 6th grade

3:18	Ben Clemens: I’m at the level where I know enough about openings to go “ooooh!” when they use them in Queen’s Gambit, but I don’t exactly remember the point of them or the specific moves, just hte names

3:19	Bucfan: I remember when Spassky-Fisher was almost canceled when a cat got sick.

3:19	BringBackDeSpanielHair: I really am sad I missed out on Vladdy this year. Trying to figure out a trade for him, but I just don’t see it being worth a big name pitcher to try and get him in my format.

3:20	Ben Clemens: Yeah, trading for a guy like Vlad when he’s starting to do the thing we all want him to do is near-impossible

3:20	Ben Clemens: Whoever ended up with him did so b/c they were hoping for this

3:20	Ben Clemens: So they get it right, and then you’re gonna go try to trade for him? Their brain is going to rebel at the thought of it

3:20	Ben Clemens: It’s not like he’s some mid-tier guy putting up better than expected numbers

3:20	Ben Clemens: Anyone who got Vlad this year knew that he was elevation-challenged but could be a star if he fixed that

3:21	BringBackDeSpanielHair: so… that Jazz Chisholm home run off deGrom… That’s the type of AB that makes me irrational about a player

3:21	Ben Clemens: Oh totally

3:21	Ben Clemens: deGrom is the one pitcher in baseball who I religiously watch

3:21	Ben Clemens: And whenever ANY hitter gets one over on him, it feels momentous

3:21	Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: Should I be worried about Sixto Sanchez?

3:21	Ben Clemens: Ugh, maybe

3:22	Ben Clemens: Shoulders, yikes!

3:22	Jeff: Otoh, how excited should we be about Trevor Rogers?

3:22	Ben Clemens: A few people have asked this todya, and I was always answering somethin else, so everyone looking for Rogers content, here it is

3:22	Ben Clemens: His ceiling is super high!

3:23	Ben Clemens: If he’s right, he’ll be awesome

3:23	Ben Clemens: In that Mets start, he had command of the zone, and when he knows where that slider is going, it’s lethal with the fastball

3:24	Ben Clemens: By pure happenstance, I also watched his start against the Cards, and he looked lost

3:24	Ben Clemens: Couldn’t command the thing to save his life

3:24	David – Clapping @ Salesforce: Which food do you like at Oracle? Feel like it’s not that great considering what’s around/outside the park.

3:24	David – Clapping @ Salesforce: A follow-up, do you consider Public House as a food & beer option for the park itself? Is that cheating?

3:24	Ben Clemens: The food at Oracle is definitely underwhelming compared to in-area options

3:25	Ben Clemens: I really like the Ghirardelli sundaes, though, so I’m willing to give it a pass

3:25	Ben Clemens: Definitely count Public House as a plus of goin there, but I wouldn’t consider it in-game dining

3:26	Ben Clemens: The beer list there is spectacular, and from what I’ve heard there are more breweries coming to the area — Ballast Point and New Belgium are opening up soon I think

3:26	David – Clapping @ Salesforce: Lol, the SUNDAES?! How do you eat that AND drink beer?

3:27	Ben Clemens: Yeah, it requires eating very healthy the day before. I’ve only had one once, but it was excellent

3:27	asnbrv: I’ve always thought having a pitch count column in fangraphs gamelog page would be helpful. Who do I ask if this is possible? Meg?

3:27	Ben Clemens: It’s something I’ve asked about from time to time, I’ll run it up the flagpole again this week. It’d be nice, totally agree

3:27	Bucfan: Gallo’s chase rate and K rate down to manageable levels, BABIP has to normalize, are you convinced?

3:27	Ben Clemens: I’m in!

3:28	Ben Clemens: Always looking for a reason to believe in Gallo, so it’s not exactly hard to get me to believe

3:28	Ben Clemens: But I believe!

3:28	A cat: When do the Sox decide that they need to move on from Dalbec? He’s barely above 50% zone contact, and can’t hit 94 in the heart of the plate.

3:29	Ben Clemens: Dalbec’s swinging strike rate worries me — his zone contact definitely plays a role in that. But given that it’s only 28 PA, I’ll give him some time to even it out — he does hit the crap out of the ball when he connects

3:30	Ben Clemens: I’m a little skeptical of xwOBA style numbers given the new ball, but he definitely seems like he’s hittin the ball harder than you’d guess from his results

3:31	Chaim Bloom: How good will this Benny trade make me look by the end of 2023?

3:31	Ben Clemens: Eh… I don’t think it’ll be a very big part of our estimation of Chaim Bloom

3:32	Ben Clemens: That said, if it does work out, it’ll be due to the PTBNL’s in the deal, and it’s way too seeon to tell on them

3:33	Ben Clemens: soon*

3:33	Farhandrew Zaidman: Is Zack McKinstry the way-too-early NL ROY?

3:33	Ben Clemens: Haha, I guess so

3:33	Ben Clemens: I don’t think he’ll end the season as RoY, b/c he won’t get enough run

3:33	Ben Clemens: But what a gem

3:33	Ben Clemens: The Dodgers are hot right now

3:33	Guest: Thanks for the chat. Buying Peralta’s transformation? Seems like he will always throw balls but the shift from FB/SL to CB/CH makes his FB even more dangerous. Ceiling?

3:33	Ben Clemens: Ceiling is one of those inconsistent but unhittable demi-aces

3:34	Ben Clemens: Healthy James Paxton, let’s say

3:34	Ben Clemens: righty, obv

3:34	Ben Clemens: Full disclosure: I am a huge buyer of both Burnes and Peralta and constantly overrate them

3:34	twinmh: You know, for us geezers wooing used to mean courting, or sparking. I was ready to blame the kiss-cam.

3:34	Ben Clemens: More romantic wooing, less high-pitched woo’ing

3:35	Dave: Nate Lowe vs. CJ Cron– who do you prefer for 2021?

3:36	Ben Clemens: Presumably this is for fantasy, and I’d just take Cron and bank the Coors effect

3:36	Ben Clemens: He’s off to a rough start, but it’s so few games, I’d just wait it out

3:36	Guest: If you had to pick one statistical category in determining hitters and pitchers to take for DFS purposes, what would that be?

3:37	Ben Clemens: Hm…. some kinda linear weight for hitters, normalized by cost?

3:37	Ben Clemens: Opponent for pitchers

3:37	Ben Clemens: I don’t really play any DFS though

3:37	LFC Mike: A Yoeman’s effort today Ben. 90 minutes and not tiring.

3:37	Ben Clemens: Chatters these days, throw 70 minutes of gas and hit the showers

3:37	Ben Clemens: Back in my day, we went through the queue 4 times and didn’t ask about it

3:38	Ben Clemens: When managing editors came to get the keyboard from us, we insulted them and refused to leave

3:38	Eric: On the team pages, it shows AL pitchers under the “batting stats leaders” even though they have zero plate appearances. It really clogs up things, is there a way to address that?

3:39	Ben Clemens: I think the correct way to do this is to have a 1 PA filter, which is something I can ask Sean about, but the way we get our stats I don’t think we can auto-exclude them

3:39	Farhandrew Zaidman: re: McKinstry: Insert Dodgers “they can’t keep getting away with this meme.” Seriously though, doesn’t look like they’re going to miss Kiké orJoc at all this year.

3:39	Ben Clemens: points for the accent, my friend

3:39	Ben Clemens: And totally agree

3:39	Ben Clemens: They do keep getting away with it

3:40	Rich: Vladdy, Jr…top 5 in MLB ranks in a bunch of categories. thoughts?

3:40	Ben Clemens: Yeah, we talked about it a little earlier on, I want to believe

3:40	Ben Clemens: Need to do a deeper dive to be sure, feels good so far though

3:41	Ben Clemens: He has to be the hardest-to-acquire player in fantasy right now

3:41	Guest: Is Akil Baddoo a legitimate fantasy asset this year?

3:41	Ben Clemens: I’m actually gonna say yes, largely on the hope that he’ll get some steals

3:41	Guest: Best part of the Harper incident was how could anyone think not being as good as Acuna is an insult? Like telling Wheeler he’ll never be as good as Maddux.

3:42	Ben Clemens: Yeah I don’t even think Harper was all that upset by the heckling lol

3:42	Harry: Cubs had a guy in the bleachers for many years called Johnny Woo-Woo. Want to guess why? I think he started the whole thing back in the 70s.

3:42	Ben Clemens: My midwestern theory confirmed!

3:42	Maggie25: Let’s also remove wooing in the sense of romance from stadiums. No more jumbotron engagements!

3:42	David: As a keeper league Vlady owner, this offseason I basically told the guy wanting to trade for him that Acuna was the only way to get him. He said no. Cool by me.

3:43	Ben Clemens: Yeah, basically this

3:43	Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t give up Vladdy either! If I got him and then he did the thing I wanted, bam, I did it

3:43	Babyfarts: How legit is Plesac? Top 25 dynasty arm?

3:43	Ben Clemens: Boy, 25 is high. Top 40, 25 might be a bridge too far for me

3:44	Billy: Brent Honeywell looked great and immediately gets sent down. I ‘think’ I kind of get why, but really I don’t. Even if you are being careful with his arm, your seriously telling me the Rays have better 8/9 options than him throwing a couple of innings twice a week in the bullpen?

3:44	Ben Clemens: I think they must just have needed the arm (they activated Trevor Richards)

3:44	BringBackDeSpanielHair: is Domonic Smith a better hitter than Polar Bear Pete?

3:44	Ben Clemens: Yes

3:45	Ben Clemens: Worse nickname, though, by default

3:45	Biscuit Pants: How do I find Ohtani’s pitching stats on his playing stats?

3:45	Ben Clemens: Just below where it says ‘season stats’, there are toggles for batting or pitching

3:45	Ben Clemens: It defaults to batting being in green, click on pitching and his stats should show up

3:46	BB: It might be confirmation bias, but I feel like hitters are less patient on getaway days. Have you seen any research on this?

3:46	Ben Clemens: No but sounds like fun if you could get a good filter for getaway days

3:46	Appa Yip Yip: If you look at Vlad’s swing decisions right now they are absurd. He’s spitting on everything out of the zone.

3:46	Ben Clemens: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/swing-take?playerId=665489&play…

3:47	Ben Clemens: Per Savant, he’s great in the chase zone, acceptable in shadow

3:48	Ben Clemens: But that chase zone swing rate is amazing

3:48	Ben Clemens: Alright, on this note

3:48	Ben Clemens: I’m gonna call it a chat

3:49	Ben Clemens: I’m super hungry, and I can smell the chicken sausage and veggies I’m cooking

3:49	Ben Clemens: too delicious to ignore

3:49	Ben Clemens: Thanks very much for hanging out with me today everyone, and I’ll catch you next week

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG