Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/15/26
| 2:00 |
: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.
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| 2:01 |
: We’re gonna do a longer one today, 1.5-2 hours, before I head out on vacation
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| 2:01 |
: I’m gonna be gone from Wednesday to next Tuesday, so no chat next week. Let’s make up for it in advance
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| 2:02 |
: JJ Wetherholt is a pretty solid favorite to be NL Rookie of the Year at this point, right?
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| 2:02 |
: Yes
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| 2:02 |
: both according to me and also according to the betting odds You Aren't a FanGraphs Member It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
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| 2:02 |
: Sad Giants fan here. On a very basic level, it seems like they have two paths forward, neither of which seems very attractive – try and build their pitching staff up in the off season and hope their offense holds as they age or – sell off what they can and look towards a future with an up and coming farm system. The first is much easier said than done, and the second is difficult because prospects are a crapshoot at best, and their roster doesn’t have much to sell with a lot of under water contracts. Which one are you taking, or are you taking a third door?
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| 2:04 |
: I’m probably taking door number two? But without much confidence either way. It’s not like the pitching staff is necessarily awful, and playing in that park makes it easier, but I don’t see this team as one that should start pivoting to the future just yet. THey just spent a while pivoting away from teh future by signing and extending a bunch of high profile hitters, cutting off that effort in the middle seems weird?
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| 2:04 |
: Is it ok to kind of believe in the white sox? They’re slightly outperforming pythag and base runs but going 4-1 in 5 games against the Dodgers and Braves with Murakami or Teel was damn impressive. At very least their offense being good doesn’t feel that fluke
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| 2:04 |
: Yeah, I agree
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| 2:04 |
: the pitching? eh. the offense seems very real
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| 2:04 |
: Was it a blunder by the A’s to give HR-prone Jeffrey Springs a second start in LV? Ginn would’ve been on full rest yesterday
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| 2:04 |
: um, yes
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| 2:05 |
: when I wrote about this series I assumed they were going to not give Springs a second go
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| 2:05 |
: and pitch Ginn instead
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| 2:05 |
: Rice is no slouch, but it feels like the Yankees have a chance to still have a strong summer without both of their Twin Giant Sluggers, which I don’t think anyone would have expected.
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| 2:06 |
: agreed, he’s been very very good and the Yankees doing okay without Judge is a great sign
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| 2:06 |
: Now that Jordan Lawlar is back, what are your hopes for him this year?
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| 2:06 |
: health
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| 2:06 |
: everything else can come after that
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| 2:06 |
: Curious what you expect out of Henry Bolte. He’s handily outperforming his xwOBA, so I’m sure he’s not this good. But he’s blazing fast, makes a ton of hard contact (just all on the ground), and plays a good CF. Do you see an above average regular emerging from this package?
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| 2:06 |
: maybe? I mean, the current version isn’t going to work long-term
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| 2:06 |
: so the question will be what adjustments he can make to his swing to basically get the ball in the air more
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| 2:06 |
: I like his odds of figuring this out because he already does a lot of stuff that’s difficult, like running fast and hitting the ball hard
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| 2:07 |
: How is Jacob Young hitting for so much more power this year? Is he just stronger, or is there something significantly different in his approach or pitch selection?
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| 2:07 |
: probably all of the above
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| 2:08 |
: for one thing, his bat speed is up a mile an hour. but also, he’s taking longer swings and making contact with the ball further forward in his swing than ever, as in he’s starting his swing earlier, thus it’s faster when it makes contact
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| 2:08 |
: I was fascinated to learn the batting average of bunts put in play is over .300! Do you know if the error rate on bunts in play is also higher than other balls in play? My instinct says yes, but I don’t actually know and am curious to know.
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| 2:08 |
: it is, but not by as much as you’d think, per Baseball Savant. Fly ball errors rates are very low. Grounders produce a ton of errors though
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| 2:08 |
: I was at the game Saturday and saw Ben Brown labor a bit, but still make it through 5 only giving up 1. Do you expect him to continue to be a top-of-the-rotation-ish guy? There’s a lot of red on his Statcast page, so on the surface at least what he’s doing looks sustainable. It’s still weird to me that he was always a guy that needed one more pitch, and that pitch turned out to be another 98mph heater.
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| 2:09 |
: top of the rotation? nah. middle of the rotation I’d say yes. I think that we’ve seen good stretches from him before, and that he’ll probably stabilize in that range. It’s a better fastball than you’d think from the raw numbers, though, to me. I think we’ve talked here about how he has some Chase Burns to him in terms of a shape that is not all that common and thus works well
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| 2:09 |
: Every year it seems like there are a ton of injuries. Is there a source that could provide total trips to the IL and total man-games on the IL year over year?
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| 2:09 |
: Baseball Prospectus’s injury dashboard does this
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| 2:10 |
: they’ve got some good stuff in there. not always the easiest to find, but I like their injury coverage and contact stuff
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| 2:10 |
: I am starting to believe – he’s fooled me before – Keibert Ruiz is now a good hitter. His swing decisions are so much better. He’s not turning everything he can reach into a soft ground ball. Am I wrong to think the new Nationals regime are magicians? Don’t even get me started on what Mikolas has done lately. He threw 97!
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| 2:12 |
: Eh. I subscribe to the theory of prove it to me. If you’re going to claim to me that after 1800 PA of being bad, Keibert Ruiz is now good, I need more than 150 PA witha .267 xwOBA
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| 2:13 |
: His stats barely make sense right now. Like, he’s not actually hitting the ball hard all that often, and he’s not hitting line drives
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| 2:13 |
: He has just a startling amount of doubles laced down the right field foul line
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| 2:13 |
: I think he’s probably still a bad hitter. We’ll see, I guess
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| 2:13 |
: Should the Mets be more concerned about Semien’s defense or offense?
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| 2:15 |
: I haven’t watched the Mets THAT closely this year to opine about Semien’s defense. I think that I’d be most worried about his offense, though. There aren’t a lot of hitters seeing higher zone rates in ’26 than in ’25 since Statcast redefined the zone smaller. Pitchers are just lobbing the ball in against Semien and daring him to do damage now
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| 2:16 |
: Ownership says Breslow’s job is safe right now, but less reputable sources are saying that it’s almost a guarantee that he’s fired. Red Sox have just a -4 run differential with their two best players out >50% of the season and 6 of 9 lineup spots 20 (!!!!!) or more points of wRC+ below their RoS projection. Seems pretty clear to me that this isn’t his fault. What are the chances he’s still POBO next Opening Day?
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| 2:17 |
: I make no strong takes either way as to whose fault things are and aren’t. Clearly this is more complicated than ‘how’s they do against wRC+. Like, these guys are supposed to have some insight into who will outperform and underperform. Kind of seems like he picked some bad players. But that said, I mean, he’s gone if they don’t make hte playoffs, right? He made everything about him, massive overhaul, trades stars, fires scouts for back-talking him on calls, becomes a big point of discussion one way or another
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| 2:17 |
: when you call attention to yourself like that, pressure is inherent
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| 2:18 |
: I’m not saying that’s fair or the right way to run a team long-term or even a good model. But let’s be realistic here. “is Bres good?” has become a central point of discussion for the Sox, at least partially because he’s acted like the smartest guy in the room. and so far, it hasn’t worked. That’s just kind of how this business works sometimes
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| 2:18 |
: I wrote in the offseason that I thought he did a good job of checking the right boxes and everything. I still think that
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| 2:18 |
: but like…. gotta win
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| 2:18 |
: Was the BAPIP on bunts lower back when they were something people did more often and fielders had more practice with? I’m thinking specifically of the bases empty leadoff bunt single variety
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| 2:18 |
: I think a big change has been pitchers bunting
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| 2:19 |
: but also, the BABIP on bunts used to be lower because people would bunt cheifly to sacrifice, hoping to maybe get on base if they were lucky
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| 2:19 |
: whereas now they bunt to get on base, with a fallback of a sacrifice
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| 2:19 |
: Do you have a favorite “cromulent starter” in the league? I’ve really been enjoying Walker Buehler’s ability lately to get it done COMPLETELY differently than he used to
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| 2:19 |
: it was Verlander for a few years towards the end there
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| 2:19 |
: oh and Erick Fedde at one point, too
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| 2:20 |
: hm, right now? maybe Eduardo Rodriguez
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| 2:20 |
: it’s always kinda surprising to see him keep succeeding
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| 2:20 |
: I went to Miz’s start on Friday. I had to take a moment afterwards to absorb it and come to terms with the fact that I’ll probably never see a start that good in person ever again
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| 2:21 |
: you probably will not
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| 2:21 |
: goodness gracious
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| 2:21 |
: no one will ‘probably’ see a start that good in person. that was ludicrous
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| 2:21 |
: Hi Ben!
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| 2:21 |
: Hey Davy
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| 2:21 |
: Do you actually think ownership’s perspective is as simple as “you win, right now, or you’re gone”? That seems incredibly short-sighted. I would much rather have an elite pitching dev organization that made some low-risk mistakes and cost us one season (and probably bought us a lot of future wins with the visionary trade of Devers) than whichever random they would hire in place of Breslow.
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| 2:22 |
: eh, I don’t feel like having a long discussion of how ownership mandates work with someone who clearly has already picked out a position. I think you probably want to argue this with someone who believes more strongly in this than I do
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| 2:22 |
: you’re right, I’m wrong
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| 2:22 |
: shouldn’t have debated you, you’ve clearly thought about this much longer than I have
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| 2:22 |
: Does James Wood fall off a cliff again in the 2nd half or was that a “first full season” type of ordeal? This Nationals offense doesn’t feel sustainable and if he wears down again, that’ll expedite their fall off
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| 2:22 |
: I don’t think he will
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| 2:23 |
: but like, I’m a big James Wood believer, probably a mistake to take my word as gospel here
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| 2:23 |
: I also don’t really buy that ‘guys who fade’ are unfixable or anything, particularly given how young he is
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| 2:23 |
: I mean, I might be wrong. I was wrong about MacKenzie Gore like two years in a row
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| 2:23 |
: for basically the same reason
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| 2:24 |
: but something about Wood’s growth makes me think it’ll keep going
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| 2:24 |
: Would you say we are experiencing peak “Gage” in the prospect world, or can we expect to see even more players with that name in the coming years?
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| 2:24 |
: I think there will be even more, honestly
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| 2:25 |
: based on the current rate of Gages and just how twee names have gotten in general
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| 2:25 |
: Hinch had expressed interest in a six man rotation when Mize came back, which would then push either Montero or Melton to the bullpen or Toledo with Verlander’s upcoming return. It seems like both have a bit more runway in the rotation with Flaherty’s injury, but would you expect Montero or Melton to be the odd man out? Would you expect either to be used as a bullpen option for Detroit or be sent to Toledo to stay stretched out? Could the team do some addition by subtraction in trading Flaherty when healthy?
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| 2:25 |
: man, this is a tricky situation for them
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| 2:26 |
: on one hand, great spot for a six-man rotation; they’d like to give skubal more rest presumably and the rest of the guys are at least broadly similar
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| 2:27 |
: on the other hand yeah, still too many, and I’d generaly preter to see what shakes out with Montero and Melton rather than get the Flaherty you know in there
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| 2:27 |
: I think that they’ll explore a trade, but not too hard, thinking that injury might resolve things for them anyway
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| 2:27 |
: Who is the most interesting bad team this season?
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| 2:27 |
: My vote is for the Nats
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| 2:27 |
: they just score SO many runs
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| 2:28 |
: if you’re going to say that they don’t count as bad because they
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| 2:28 |
: re above .500, well: that’s fair
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| 2:28 |
: in that case, I say the A’s
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| 2:28 |
: they’re really fun to watch
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| 2:28 |
: You definitely have to squint to see it, but am I crazy to think the A’s pitching staff is starting to look improved? Between Ginn/Jump/Perkins in the rotation and Barnett/Alvarado/Sterner in the bullpen, feels like a higher upside group than even a month ago
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| 2:28 |
: yeah I mean, I’d say that they’re starting to find the nucleus of a good future pitching staff
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| 2:30 |
: is Nathan Eovaldi just experiencing some tough HR/FB luck with otherwise encouraging peripherals that is due to regress, or did something change that makes you think the homer issue might stick?
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| 2:30 |
: man, I had this question up for a while trying to come up with a good answer for you
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| 2:30 |
: and I basically can’t decide?
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| 2:31 |
: Like, xERA is not super predictive
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| 2:31 |
: but it does do a good job of explaining whether a pitcher is getting blooped to death or actually giving up hard contact. and eovaldi is giving up hard contact for sure
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| 2:32 |
: so like, maybe he should have an ERA higher than his xFIP, but lower than his FIP. something like a 4 flat?
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| 2:32 |
: I’m probably more worried that our models think his fastball has gotten meaningfully worse
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| 2:33 |
: because that explains a bit of why he’s giving up harder contact
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| 2:33 |
: I’m not saying he’s cooked, or anything close to it. but I think ‘a little worse than recent’ is reasonable, even though I do think he’s a really good pitchability guy who will continue to exceed his raw stuff/command expectation
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| 2:33 |
: It bugs me when people vote for whoever’s having a good first half for the All Star Game. If I’m gonna watch the game, I wanna see the best players – not Jimmy Nobody at age 31 who hit well for 2 months. We should see the future Hall Of Famers in the game, all of them, unless they’re way past their prime.
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| 2:33 |
: Oh, I love this question
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| 2:34 |
: I’ve never decided on a good rule of thumb here either
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| 2:34 |
: I feel like i vote for the true outlier performances first
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| 2:34 |
: then the stars
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| 2:34 |
: then if there’s neither, then I’ll go for a good year from a rando
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| 2:34 |
: Atlanta – I get it, sometimes you have a bad week and can’t overreact. BUT the rotation certainly looks a lot shakier now, however long Strider is out. Should they a) stick to their strategy of internal options like Waldrep plus relatively low-key role player acquisitions – guys like Martin Perez who wouldn’t start a playoff game? OR should they try to go out and spend a lot of prospect capital on a game-changing starter?
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| 2:35 |
: is there a controllable, nidrotation starting pitcher that would make sense for the White Sox to target? Obvious don’t want to skip steps in the rebuild and trade for Skubes but given the state of the ALC it seems like they could be a meaningful playoff contender if they shored up their rotation
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| 2:35 |
: Similar questions, I think, about very different teams
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| 2:35 |
: but the truth is that I don’t think it’s going to be all that attractive or even possible to trade for a controllable starter who can appear in playoff games for you
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| 2:35 |
: er, possible, sure
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| 2:36 |
: but Reid Detmers, Joe Ryan, maybe Gore? I’m looking through the top pitchers this year and wondering who’s going to be available
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| 2:36 |
: and I’m thinking they’ll all have high prices set, which seems reasonable
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| 2:36 |
: I have the complete opposite perspective as Philip on the ASG – being mid-year to me implies we should be rewarding specifically the performances that year, ESPECIALLY considering nobody really seems to take All-Star appearances into consideration when voting for the Hall anymore. Let the one-hit wonders have their moment and assume the true stars can rack up their appearances in future years when they don’t have a slower start
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| 2:37 |
: I love that the audience has two different opinions
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| 2:37 |
: and like, the exact opposite
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| 2:37 |
: kind of delightful
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| 2:39 |
: Aaron Nola’s just toast, right? Some combination of losing a bit of command and the league getting better at handling velocity means his 92 mph fastball is no longer viable, right?
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| 2:39 |
: You have to hope that he’s like the other cromulent pitchers we’re talking about, a guy who can make it happen despite not having the raw juice to
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| 2:40 |
: but yeah, that’s not a given, and it always feels a little dangerous to assume someone will figure that out
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| 2:40 |
: sometimes you’re just cooked
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| 2:40 |
: I think he’s probably got another ‘wow, Aaron Nola turned back the clock’ stretch in him
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| 2:40 |
: but that he’s near the end of the road
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| 2:40 |
: Do you think baseball is/will be better having two parks that are such outliers in terms of how they play and influence stats? In a perfect world would you rather not have teams in Denver and Vegas?
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| 2:40 |
: So, this version of Vegas was no good
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| 2:40 |
: they just didn’t do enough
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| 2:41 |
: but a version of Vegas that is temperature-controlled, that has proper dimensiosn for major leaguers to play, that the league has done extensive studies on? I’m in
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| 2:41 |
: For example, if the permanent Vegas ballpark plays like Sacramento, I’d be perfectly happy with that
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| 2:41 |
: high offense, but not 23-9 high offense
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| 2:41 |
: When do you think Kade Anderson gets the call? I know the Ms have too many starters as it is but he is having one of the most dominant pitching seasons of all time. 37.7% K-BB. OOPSY is spitting out a 2.67 ERA projection for him as a starter. If they want to limit his innings they could use him in multi inning relief in the majors.
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| 2:41 |
: fascinating questin
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| 2:42 |
: His Doulbe-A numbers are just ludicrous
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| 2:43 |
: but yeah, they really do have a lot of starters. I am skeptical that they’re going to put Anderson in a relief role even if it makes sense from a short-term roster optimization puzzle
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| 2:43 |
: but maybe this is the answer to the question about controllable pitching. If you can give up a really good controllable hitter, maybe you can have George Kirby or something. Or Miller? Maybe that’s where controllable pitching lives
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| 2:43 |
: Verlander “towards the end there,”?! The Tigers are bringing him back as we speak for the pre-trade deadline push!
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| 2:43 |
: perhaps it should be ‘towards the end here’
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| 2:43 |
: I had a lot of fun watching him in SF last year. but he’s a #4 or #5 now
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| 2:44 |
: With the Vegas park, will fans and voters correctly understand this park factor? Or should I bet everything on nick kurtz mvps starting in 2029?
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| 2:44 |
: well…. I think it’ll be understood correctly ENOUGH, at least
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| 2:44 |
: probably not perfectly
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| 2:44 |
: but we get that colorado exists, so parks can be crazy
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| 2:45 |
: i think it’s kinda awesome to have a few bouncy house ballparks
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| 2:45 |
: Yeah. I think I agree. just not TOO bouncy
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| 2:45 |
: I actually even like having the occasional game in a dumb park
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| 2:45 |
: the Mexico City series was sooooo fun, my wife brings it up years later
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| 2:45 |
: ‘remember when that game was like 20-20?’
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| 2:45 |
: I’m still catching up, 20 mins back so you may have already addressed. But – the Knicks? The Knicks!
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| 2:45 |
: no I haven’t
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| 2:45 |
: and wow, what a fun series to watch
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| 2:46 |
: I need to respond to another one about this
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| 2:46 |
: How do you feel about all the large blown leads in the NBA (Spurs seemingly can’t hold 20+ point leads) and NHL (4-goal lead blown by the Knights) finals? Sloppy play or just exciting good play?
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| 2:46 |
: so, the NBA ones, I didn’t love them. The Spurs were just choking, you know?
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| 2:46 |
: hockey for whatever reason feels more earned to me
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| 2:46 |
: I watched that game too and it was amazing
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| 2:46 |
: whereas the Spurs were just like ‘oh we’re up by 10? time to dribble it off my foot’
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| 2:48 |
: I’m sure they’ll be back better than ever but that was a rough end of the year
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| 2:48 |
: Yeah, I guess “outlier performances” is a good rule of thumb too. We def want Miz in there whether or not he ever gets to the Hall. I guess my bigger point was that we want the best players in the game; the Ildemaro Vargas’s are great stories, but the All Star Game should be for the Ketel Martes, even if they aren’t destroying it in the first half of the given season.
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| 2:48 |
: Yeah. I think that’s the right way to splice things
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| 2:48 |
: a guy with a 150 wRC+ doing it by hitting a little better? eh
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| 2:48 |
: Ben Rice? I mean, I want to see him
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| 2:48 |
: *Another* Atlanta question. Dom Smith and Jorge Mateo are both quietly having really nice years as role players, years after their top prospect status faded. Is this more like a one-year blip a la Zach McKinstry? Or is this more like they finally found a part-time role that suits them perfectly, like Matt Diaz in Atlanta, and they may be able to remain productive at close to this level for years to come?
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| 2:49 |
: Well Dom Smith is basically repeating last year, where he was a nice little part-time 1B
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| 2:49 |
: so I think that one is at this point the default expectation for me
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| 2:49 |
: Mateo, yeah, I think that he’s a case somewhat like Nick Allen actually
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| 2:50 |
: the Braves are pretty good at seeing guys who might be capable of doing a very specific thing that you need. Exactly like you said
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| 2:50 |
: but I mean, Mateo still can’t hit
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| 2:50 |
: I think that if you told me 3 years ago he’d end up as a nice glove-first shortstop with occasinoal hot streaks offensively, I’d be totally onboard
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| 2:51 |
: I think that he just kind of got squeezed with the O’s, and the utility infielder role wasn’t great for him
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| 2:51 |
: Is there some way Kyle Harrison can have the start he was forced to make in LV expunged from his record? These games destroy several statistical stats.
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| 2:51 |
: haha right?
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| 2:51 |
: I stupidly started him in fantasy not realizing it was in Vegas
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| 2:51 |
: That’s the downside of these, and that’s also why I think that having a full-time park like this would be totally unacceptable
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| 2:52 |
: I’m curious what we’ll do about park factors for these games
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| 2:52 |
: like, there were only 6 games there. it’d be wildly irresponsible to try to work out factors
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| 2:52 |
: but also, clearly they’re ridiculously high
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| 2:52 |
: a 5 ERA there would be spectacular
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| 2:52 |
: Soo… Bryce Eldridge’s contact rate is up and his swinging strike rate is down relative to AAA. Is he for real?
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| 2:52 |
: it’s early but the signs look good. He’s following the old ‘first time up to get my feet wet, second time up to hit’ pattern that used to be more normal for top prospects
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| 2:53 |
: I’m expecting plenty of growing pains even if he is a smash hit though. He’s just SO large
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| 2:53 |
: and long-levered
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| 2:53 |
: I think that there are going to be intermittent growing pains and adjustment periods as teams work out new ways to attack him
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| 2:53 |
: but it’s a very encouraging sign to see him improve markedly in his second attempt
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| 2:53 |
: and he’s still very young
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| 2:53 |
: At the moment, looks like Christopher Sanchez is going to become the first pitcher to throw over 50 consecutive scoreless innings–a quarter of the entire season!–and not win the Cy Young award, right?
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| 2:54 |
: it’s too early to say for sure, it looks like he and miz are 1/2 in some order, but they each have half a season to play
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| 2:54 |
: it’s wild that Sanchez isn’t the favorite right now. but we’re just having two absolutely incredible seasons at once
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| 2:55 |
: What do you think of Justin Crawford’s struggles and they way his playing time is dropping? I’m inclined to let a super young kid work it out when he’s supposed to be your #9 hitter anyway, not compensate for a ton of veterans being awful by pretending the problem lies with him.
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| 2:56 |
: I concur. I would not be shorting his playing time if I thought that he was good enough to play in the majors, and the fact that they started him in the bigs is a very clear sign as to that
|
| 2:56 |
: it’s a classic bind of a contending team
|
| 2:56 |
: but I think that the contending teams who are best at resolving these binds tend to be the ones who just say ‘screw it we play him’
|
| 2:56 |
: Are you buying Brandon Valenzuela as a potential starter caliber catcher?
|
| 2:56 |
: potential? for sure
|
| 2:57 |
: I’m taking his offense with an enormous grain of salt
|
| 2:57 |
: there’s just a LOT of track record of him not hitting
|
| 2:57 |
: but he looks pretty good to me across the board on defense, and I tend to round up my expectations of Jays catcher readiness because they’ve been really good at it
|
| 2:58 |
: Speaking of the Vegas park, are the A’s gonna keep their AAA affiliate in Vegas after they move there? Don’t think there’s ever been a milb team in the same city as its parent club (or a milb team in a mlb city period)
|
| 2:58 |
: no. I”m not the person to ask on the official rules on this but I’m fairly certain that you can’t have big and minor league teams in the same city without some very specific exceptions
|
| 2:58 |
: For voting purposes, there should be leader boards since the last All-Star game!
|
| 2:58 |
: that would be really good honestly
|
| 2:58 |
: i make my own ‘since the last trade value series’ leaderboard to try to bang some misconceptions out of my head every year, and I find it really useful
|
| 3:00 |
: The Twins’ AAA team is in St Paul.
|
| 3:00 |
: famously technically a different city
|
| 3:00 |
: but your point is taken
|
| 3:00 |
: NYC has some of this too
|
| 3:00 |
: the Giants have a team in San Jose, etc. (definitely different cities, to be clear)
|
| 3:00 |
: but I don’t think Vegas quite fits here
|
| 3:01 |
: the Twins do that b/c the Saints were a very famous team for a long time
|
| 3:01 |
: I think those two extremes on ASG theory are interesting. My contention with “only the proven best” means you probably don’t get Jordan Walker, when his carrying tool is cool (hit ball really reallllly hard) and I don’t really want to see, like, Bryan Reynolds there (sorry Bryan). But also, don’t need to see Kyle Tucker.
|
| 3:01 |
: yeah, mine is probably in need of some nuance and better definitions
|
| 3:01 |
: but basically I want the superstars. and eh, Kyle Tucker is a superstar enough that I disagree with you there. But I do think that you want to see some new fun players, plus some stars
|
| 3:03 |
: The Mets High-A team is in Brooklyn which is most definitely part of New York.
|
| 3:03 |
: yeah. and the Yankees had a team on Staten Island, also
|
| 3:03 |
: but it’s definitely generally not accepted, or at least, generally they want teams to be separated. there are no minor league teams in a lot of large cities
|
| 3:04 |
: anyway I’m guessing they’ll move the A’s affiliate around to somehwere else, I dunno where exactly
|
| 3:04 |
: rather than have Vegas try to support both teams
|
| 3:04 |
: This Red Sox fan is actually hoping the team doesn’t have a fake spurt and cause whoever is actually making the decisions, Breslow or Sam Kennedy, to trade some young prospect for a quick fix. The last two deadlines have been disasters. James Tibbs for two awful months of Dustin May, please not again.
|
| 3:04 |
: Tibbs and Harrison both being smash hits is a really funny capper on the Devers trade
|
| 3:04 |
: the Athletic had a good retrospective on it today, its one-year anniversary (!)
|
| 3:04 |
: basically like, sadness, many places
|
| 3:04 |
: Miz/ Sanchez is reminiscent of Arrieta/Grienke in 2015 & Gooden/Tudor in 1985..sometimes you just get 2 all time seasons in 1 year..& then none the next.
|
| 3:04 |
: Arrieta Greinke is actually the vibe I’ve been getting
|
| 3:05 |
: because that’s a year where I was really into baseball
|
| 3:05 |
: I’m sure this has been asked before, but where do you stand at this point in the season on will/should CJ Abrams be traded?
|
| 3:05 |
: I think that he will get traded, but in the offseason
|
| 3:06 |
: unless the Nats fall hard in the next month, I don’t think they’ll trade away key pieces now. particularly since teams trading for Abrams would want him to play a non-shortstop position
|
| 3:07 |
: That just lines up to me to be an offseason trade
|
| 3:07 |
: When is it too early to scoreboard watch? I need to wait until at least the All-Star break, right? (Even though I’m already doing it, I can’t help myself. It’s just been so long since there was even an unreasonable reason to do so.)
|
| 3:08 |
: yeah, I think the first time it’s appropriate is August. But also, you’re going to do it earlier even if you don’t want to, it’s human nature
|
| 3:08 |
: PH to get the platoon advantage- What’s your general stance- Asking because AJ Hinch has been VERY aggressive this year- taking out Carpenter & Keith as early as the 5th for Jahmai Jones (who has been awful, of course)..only to then have their spot come out in the 8th/9th inning & now lost the platoon advantage. My sense is he’s way too aggressive in doing it so early, like I don’t think I would ever do it unless their spot was unlikely to come up again.
|
| 3:08 |
: Yes. I think that Hinch particularly is WAY too aggressive with iht
|
| 3:08 |
: I feel like I’ve maybe noted this in various postseason writeups on him before
|
| 3:08 |
: sometimes you just need to let it breathe
|
| 3:08 |
: or like, build your roster differently if you’re going to be so hair-trigger on these
|
| 3:09 |
: probably the second, really. I do think he’s trying to find extra edge. I just think that it ends up coming back to give that edge away, particularly if you hav ea guy like Jones who you don’t want to bat against same-handed people
|
| 3:09 |
: If Abrams is traded, what even is the Nats timeline? When are they supposed to compete? Are they on a Willits timeline now essentially (2028+)?
|
| 3:10 |
: yes. but also, I think that it’s just reasonable to trade away people who are headed towards the end of their team control and aren’t your locked in stars. Not because you’re giving up, just because it’s part of how to run a team if you’re not going to spend infinite. The Brewers trade people a year before free agency and we still think of them as perpetually competing. It hink that an Abrams trade is defensible in that sense. I don’t think they necessarily have to, of course, but I think it’d fit with how teams do business. Basically am I sure they’re going to compete in ’27? No. So it doesn’t seem outrageous to me. But I hear you that either it means giving up on ’27, or maybe it means getting back people who can contribute right away
|
| 3:11 |
: The Phillies have officially entered Late Stage Dombrowski. He won’t be fired yet, but we can all see it coming, right? How long will it be?
|
| 3:11 |
: Yeah, this is how the Dombrowski expeirence tends to go
|
| 3:12 |
: again, that’s fine
|
| 3:13 |
: but yeah, stretching out the window over this many years has left the cupbboard bare
|
| 3:13 |
: What would be the baseball equivalent of Cape Verde drawing with Spain? Would it have to be a major league team vs. a AAA squad? A AA squad?
|
| 3:13 |
: I think it’s like the Czechia WBC team
|
| 3:13 |
: semi-pros, etc., taking on real MLB players and doing fine
|
| 3:14 |
: like, look at how badly Curacao got worked by Germany
|
| 3:14 |
: you know what USUALLY happens in these games
|
| 3:14 |
: but it doesn’t have to
|
| 3:14 |
: There are so many great things in Misiorowski’s game but the one I can’t believe is that he could fan 15 and keep the pitch count at 95. I never thought that was possible. IMHO a better game has never been pitched.
|
| 3:14 |
: the math is so weird
|
| 3:14 |
: like, how!
|
| 3:14 |
: that’s 45 pitches just on the strikeouts
|
| 3:14 |
: and just the strikes on the strikeouts
|
| 3:17 |
: Sorry for the barrage of Nats questions, they’re just a very confusing team and are interesting with the new FO. Do you think we’re having the same conversation about Wood in a year? He seems good enough to be the guy you keep if anyone is, but will they pay to extend him? I assume it would be a big number.
|
| 3:17 |
: Man, I think that they should definitely pay to extend him, but I’m curiosu to see how the Nats operate with uncertain ownership future
|
| 3:17 |
: you know what I mean?
|
| 3:17 |
: like, I think they still want to sell
|
| 3:17 |
: and that probably changes the calculus
|
| 3:17 |
: but these days, it’s so hard to trade for a guy like that. they did it! they need to consolidate theihr gains
|
| 3:17 |
: What record or how many games out of the division/WC would Detroit need to be to decide to be buyers at the deadline? The season has been riddled with injuries and obviously the main focus has been if/when Skubal gets traded, but they’re also at a ~20% chance for playoffs which isn’t nothing in a division where the frontrunner just lost their star player to a hamate injury. For as gross as the lineup has been, it feels like an impact righty bat and a reliable reliever or two could really kickstart a turnaround (or I’m rationalizing a lost season? no, definitely not that).
|
| 3:19 |
: Right now they’re 6 back in the WC with 6 teams ahead of them. I think games back is less important than teams ahead; maybe it’s like, within 5 with only 3 teams between you and the WC, add?
|
| 3:19 |
: I don’t have a great answer for you here but if I’m the Tigers, I’m trying ot make the playoffs this year if it’s reasonable
|
| 3:19 |
: Minor league team in same city as major league parent – *that* would probably be relatively unprecedented, but “minor league affiliate in suburbs of the city where the parent plays” is not: e.g., Gwinnett Stripers / Atlanta Braves, Potomac Nationals / Washington Nationals (until recently), etc.
|
| 3:19 |
: true. not so easy to accomplish in the desert where the sprawl doesn’t work the same way, but that’s not a bad point
|
| 3:19 |
: In 1997, I saw Randy Johnson throw a 15K, 1 hitter at Tiger Stadium..(& the 1 hit was in the 8th inning..& we were pissed, Tigers were going nowhere & we wanted to see a no hitter). So dominant, looked like the Tigers were swinging whiffle ball bats at times. So, similar to Miz..but, he threw 125 pitches & that was in 8 innings. Long way of saying- Yeah, that Miz game was insane.
|
| 3:20 |
: haha yeah the math is just bonkers. I think that so few players today can operate as fastball-primary as a starter that his line just does’nt add up in my head
|
| 3:20 |
: it’s just baffling!
|
| 3:20 |
: Gelof or Bazzana ROS?
|
| 3:20 |
: gimme Bazzana but I’m not super confident in that
|
| 3:20 |
: on the topic of Nats offense: are they getting lucky with RISP to score a decent amount more runs than wRC+ would suggest or is the base running really that good?
|
| 3:20 |
: both, but more the first I think
|
| 3:20 |
: Has Ben Rice actually taken a step forward this year or it just underperforming xwOBA last year and over performing this year?
|
| 3:20 |
: both imo
|
| 3:20 |
: How do you think the weak AL will affect the trade deadline? Only two teams (Royals & Angels) have less than a ~16% chance of making the playoffs. Like, can’t the Tigers or Red Sox or [insert mildly disappointing team here] relatively easily convince themselves that they should actually be buyers, or even just do nothing and still sneak into the playoffs with some marginal good luck, if things stay like this?
|
| 3:21 |
: (speed round here as I come closer to wrapping up) Yes, absolutely
|
| 3:21 |
: I think that you’re going to see teams fracture off a little bit. because passing a ton of teams is really hard. but I think that it might start slow because everyone thinks they’re still in it
|
| 3:21 |
: and the first mover will extract a slight premium for being the first team willing to trade out of the race
|
| 3:21 |
: why is the all star voting process personally biased against my favorite player (Ceddanne Rafaela not even a top 3 Red Sox outfielder in the voting results released just now :( )
|
| 3:21 |
: baffling!
|
| 3:22 |
: I was slow to get on the Rafaela train but I’m there now. and yeah, ‘the all star voting slights my favorite player’ is a classic annoyance
|
| 3:22 |
: Will Sal Perez break out of his season long slump?
|
| 3:22 |
: I think at this point we just call it a decline, sadly
|
| 3:22 |
: Which retired, non-HOFer from each team’s past would have the biggest impact on the present team? E.g., the Twins’ bullpen sure could use prime Joe Nathan these days.
|
| 3:23 |
: oh, do they get to play at their peak?
|
| 3:23 |
: let’s say yes, and let’s not count, like, Barry Bonds
|
| 3:23 |
: Peak Strasburg for the Nats, peak Wainwright for the Cardinals, peak Buehrle (!?) for the White Sox perhaps?
|
| 3:23 |
: basically I’m looking for a lot of aces
|
| 3:24 |
: FWIW James Wood = Scott Boras. That means we shouldn’t expect an extension.
But yeah. There’s a world where the Nats open the checkbook in the offseason to get a few pitchers and become legit contenders. Abrams has two more arb years, and the time to trade him does not have to be now |
| 3:24 |
: yeah, Boras clients are always tough
|
| 3:24 |
: like you COULD do it
|
| 3:24 |
: Dewey Evans for the Red sox. Of course he should be in the HOF.
|
| 3:24 |
: Hear me out: Johnny Pesky
|
| 3:25 |
: Peak Kenny Lofton replacing Steven Kwan IMO
|
| 3:25 |
: Kwan’s just rolling to a corner in this situation, but yeah
|
| 3:25 |
: another good non-pitcher one
|
| 3:25 |
: If the Tigers trade Skubal, what do you think they will do otherwise at the deadline?
|
| 3:25 |
: trade other people on short-term deals for help for next year
|
| 3:25 |
: “Gimme Bazzana” is a fantastic catchphrase. I’d love the Guardians to get an Australian punk band to record a song by that name (I nominate the Living End), make it their 2026 “O.M.G.”, and ride it all the way into October. What could be better than that?
|
| 3:25 |
: I hear “Ooh! Bazzana!” like DK Bananza
|
| 3:26 |
: or ‘what’s the most home runs a bazzana could hit, Michael?’ in Lucille Bluth’s voice
|
| 3:26 |
: but clearly it’s just an elite name
|
| 3:28 |
: replace current JV with prime JV? or put Miggy at first over Tork?
|
| 3:28 |
: No, those guys don’t count, haha
|
| 3:28 |
: they’re going to be hall of famers
|
| 3:28 |
: there’s always money in the Bazzana stand
|
| 3:28 |
: Peak Lincecum back to the Giants
|
| 3:28 |
: good one
|
| 3:28 |
: Peak Carl Crawford to the Rays. Or wait… peak Zobrist?
|
| 3:28 |
: ooh, fun
|
| 3:28 |
: Give me the 1984 version of Chet Lemon on the Tigers – we’re in desperate need of legitimate right handed hitting and better defense, Hinch can play platoon games with Gleyber and Kerry at DH
|
| 3:28 |
: now we’re cooking
|
| 3:28 |
: Admit it, you miss pitchers batting. We have not seen a single Bartolo Colon miracle HR, or a surprise 3-hit game by Tom Seaver, or a funny RP hack single to win a game in the 12th inning in five years now, and you miss it. It’s OK to admit.
|
| 3:29 |
: I think that it’s a net good move, even though I do miss pitchers hitting
|
| 3:30 |
: DBacks could use a peak Brandon Webb
|
| 3:30 |
: Peak Evan Longoria to the Rays, put Caminero at 2nd
|
| 3:30 |
: Do you think the Mets would take back the nimmo/semien trade at this point, or is the difference in years left on contract enough to still make it worth it for them?
|
| 3:31 |
: ooooooh. I think they would even if they think they’re right on the back end. because it was important to be good this year and they botched that
|
| 3:31 |
: Just a hot month or are we finally witnessing that superstar turn for the (still!) 22 year old Jackson Chourio?
|
| 3:31 |
: It’ll be easy to convince me
|
| 3:31 |
: but I do want to see a little more
|
| 3:31 |
: I’m ready for it, though
|
| 3:31 |
: Paul Skenes has lost a full tick off of his fastball and his ERA is up nearly a full run. Has Skenes gone from potential all-time great to a mere run of the mill All Star?
|
| 3:32 |
: too soon to say by a mile. guys’ form changes. no one is just 80/80 100% of the time. Let’s see how he rebounds
|
| 3:32 |
: alright everyone, this was a really fun chat but I just realized I am desperately hungry and haven’t eaten today
|
| 3:32 |
: so I’m going to go take care of that, and then watch some world cup afterwards
|
| 3:32 |
: have a wonderful day, everyone
|
| 3:32 |
: and I’ll talk to you again in two weeks
|
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
The anti-Breslow takes are exhausting. Once ownership decided they were out on Bregman (who btw has been bad), what was he supposed to do with 3B?
Also:
Was he supposed to predict that Duran, Story, and Durbin would each post like a .600 OPS for two months?
Was he supposed to control Anthony being made of glass? (he even kept three other starter-quality OF around as a hedge)
Was he supposed to predict Bello being bad and Crochet getting hurt?
Was he supposed to block Mayer? (they couldn’t put him at short anyway because Story re-upped himself)
Meanwhile, things are *amazing* on the farm.
I think the clubhouse decided to cancer itself and Breslow is the scapegoat. Story blaming Breslow for players’ performances is especially rich considering Story himself was a chief offender (who hamstrung the roster by opting back in).
Oh, and before people blame Breslow for Devers’ exit: it was Bloom who gave him the big contract and promised him 3B, not Breslow. Crappy for Devers, sure, but he then became a big baby about it and refused to help the team, so, what was Breslow then supposed to do?
Yes, the hitting side of the roster has been bad, and it has some guys who weren’t really expected to be good. IKF was shortstop insurance in case Story and/or Mayer went down or were bad. Yes, he’s a bad hitter, which is why Durbin and Monasterio and Seigler were picked up. If you can’t find a strong option at a position, have a lot of depth for it.
Someone tell me what Breslow was supposed to do differently.
Win? Just sayin’. It’s a results orientated business.
This is kinda like valuing pitchers based on pitcher wins.
Except the pitcher has zero control over the other 25 players and having control of the players on the team is basically the job of the POBO, so these aren’t all that comparable.
Having control of the players on the team?
Ben put it well:
A GM could have the same results in the same market over the same timeframe and have much higher job security if he just went about it differently. A GM who does a lot of “big” stuff and does it loudly is absolutely pre-signing his name below the eventual results, for better or worse.
Except “he made it all about him” is incorrect.
let’s go to the tape: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DXmXd4RD5p5/?hl=en
If Breslow wants to get a beer the coach of the cavs who kept reminding everyone how badly they were beating the knicks in advanced stats, well, he’ll surely have the money for it, so I’m not sure why you feel the need to defend him. He went all in, and maybe the odds were in his favor, but you don’t get to cry foul if you lose just because you were unlucky (and no one forced him to trade Tibbs and May…)
Nope, there is absolutely nothing Breslow could have done differently, and he is completely blameless for the current state of the major league team and should in no way be held accountable
Nice strawman.
When you fire the manager, trade your cornerstone/fumble the winnings, and occupy last place…what do you expect? He made dramatic moves, the team got worse. You want him to get a parade? Is this Breslow’s burner acct?
I never understand why people think players underperforming projections would be a good defense of a GM/POBO. If that was the best way to evaluate transactions, we could just do away with 90% of a front office staff, just bring up fangraphs to see the projections and/or do some fan polls before making a move.
That said, Breslow did get way too much crap for trading Devers, was suprised at no one praising him for that deal at the time.
Great point. I was writing something similar but was not saying it this elegantly.
GMs create value for themselves by going above and beyond shared knowledge with their own input to secure success. Fundamentally, because this role goes beyond shared knowledge, we can’t use shared knowledge to evaluate it, as you say.
To evaluate this value as best as we can, we have to get by with some combination of using results as a noisy signal of value, and developing more exploratory, personalized analysis of his choices (which we as fans may lack important knowledge to analyze with).
An MLB team having an upper minors affiliate in the same metro area still strikes me as odd (like Ben’s initial reaction), but it’s become fairly common.
Two examples of AAA teams in the same metro were mentioned in the chat (Twins and Braves).
In addition to those examples, the Astros AAA affiliate is in a Houston suburb (Sugar Land) and the Mariners AAA affiliate is in Tacoma. Rangers AA affiliate (Frisco) is in the DFW metro area. The Red Sox AAA team is in Worcester, which isn’t part of the Census-defined Boston MSA but is only about ~40 miles from Boston.
The Las Vegas metro area has a significantly lower population than those other examples, but another team there already has an analogous situation to the Aviators staying in Summerlin. The Golden Knights’ AHL affiliate is in Henderson.
I look at it from exactly the opposite direction. Having the Triple-A affiliate nearby makes moving players up and down very easy. It makes no sense to have your replacement players across the country. It wasn’t many years ago that the Mets AAA team was in Las Vegas which meant a player could not get to NY immediately if an urgency arose.
I agree that having a team’s AAA affiliate located far across the country is a less than ideal situation, from both a logistical and business standpoint.
A set-up that makes intuitive sense is for a team to have its AAA affiliate in a good-sized market that’s relatively close, but not the same metro area. Logistics for calling up and sending down players still work reasonably well, and the business idea is to bolster the MLB’s team fanbase in a secondary market. There are still quite a few AAA affiliate locations that follow this model: Guardians in Columbus, Royals in Omaha, Giants in Sacramento, Reds in Louisville, Cardinals in Memphis, Blue Jays in Buffalo, Cubs in Des Moines, Rangers in Round Rock (Austin suburb), etc.
With that model, Reno or Salt Lake City could be a logical location for the A’s AAA affiliate, but the Diamondbacks and Angels, respectively, already have AAA affiliates in those cities.
Not sure that “proper dimensions for major leaguers to play” (2:41) was really an issue with the games at Las Vegas Ballpark (340 lines, 380 power alleys, 415 dead center). Environmental factors seemed more the culprit.
You mention Johnny Pesky for the Red Sox, but if you are saying a non-HoF SS is what they need, then I’d say peak Nomar. He even was a defensive plus up to 2000.
Nats certainly need peak Strasburg right now (hey, they are still paying him), but the mention of Nomar also reminds of how good another subsequently-derided infielder, Anthony Rendon, was for the Nats. Move Mead to 2nd to make room for Tony 2 Bags and have Wood-Rendon-Abrams for your 1-2-4.
Could the Cubs chose peak Nomar? Or is that just for the Red Sox?
Peak Nomar didn’t play for the Cubs though.
Kyle Seager has been the answer for the M’s since Corey’s big brother retired (in his early 30’s)
Nomar is the guy that immediately came to mind to meet, too.
The Twins could use peak Johan Santana right now, more than Nathan even.
I can’t tell if it would be funny, sad, or both if the A’s formed a Triple A affiliate in Oakland.