FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 8–14

We’re coming up on the halfway point of the season, and the playoff picture in both leagues is still as muddy as ever. That should make for an interesting trade deadline, with a bunch of teams seemingly on the cusp of making a run and only a few true sellers.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds. (Specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%.) The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s near perfect game on Saturday was just about the only thing that went right for the Dodgers in Chicago this past weekend. The right-hander didn’t allow a baserunner until the eighth inning when Mookie Betts booted a groundball for an error with two outs in the frame; Yamamoto wound up allowing just a single hit in his outing, a home run in the ninth. The Dodgers won, 10-1, but they lost both of their other games versus the White Sox. Shohei Ohtani also dodged an injury scare; he exited Thursday’s game with knee inflammation and was held out of Friday’s game too. Thankfully, he returned to the lineup on Saturday and hit his third home run of the week.

The Braves hit their first major speed bump of the season last week. They lost three games in a row for the second time this year and dropped their series against the White Sox and Mets. Atlanta also lost Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider to injuries. The superstar outfielder strained his hamstring for the second time this season, and you have to think the team will be more conservative with his rehab this time around. Strider’s situation is a little more concerning. He’s dealing with another injury to his twice-reconstructed throwing elbow, though no definitive diagnosis has been reached yet. The team has weathered plenty of injuries this season and is still atop the NL East standings by a wide margin, so while this latest round is far from ideal, the Braves are still in a great position.

The Brewers and Phillies met over the weekend in a clash between two of the top teams in the National League. In Milwaukee’s two wins, Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison held Philadelphia scoreless. Misiorowski’s start was particularly magnificent, a nine-inning shutout with 15 strikeouts that was a Maddux no less. The other game of the series was a back-and-forth affair on Saturday in which the Phillies managed to hold off a furious comeback attempt from the Brewers. At the center of everything was Jackson Chourio, who collected 13 hits and five home runs last week. Milwaukee has gone 25-11 since activating him off the IL on May 4.

As for the Phillies, their already thin outfield corps took a hit on Wednesday when Adolis García tore his lat. He’ll miss a significant chunk of the season, and while Philadelphia recently acquired Derek Hill, the team will likely look for additional reinforcements in right field.

The loss of Aaron Judge didn’t hamper the Yankees too much last week, as they swept the Guardians in Cleveland and then won their series in Toronto over the weekend. An injury to Trent Grisham is a little worrisome since the team’s outfield group was already stretched, though the return of Jasson Domínguez from his own injury helped a bit; he blasted a home run in his first game off the IL on Saturday. The Yanks have also benefitted from the hot bat of Paul Goldschmidt. He had 10 hits and two home runs last week, and is slashing .309/.372/.553 (a 157 wRC+) since the beginning of May.

The White Sox made a statement last week, going 4-1 against the Braves and Dodgers. They’ve been one of the best teams in the American League since mid-April and proved why against two of the best teams in baseball. With the Guardians sliding down the standings, and now dealing with an injury to José Ramírez, Chicago suddenly looks like the team to beat in the AL Central. Our playoff odds aren’t bought in yet, likely because of the lack of quality pitching currently on the roster, but even a competitive playoff chase this summer would count as a successful season after so much futility the last few years.

As for the Guardians, they’re suddenly facing an extended absence from Ramírez after the superstar fractured his hamate bone on Saturday. He hadn’t been playing up to his usual standard this year, with his 110 wRC+ his lowest mark since 2019. Still, he’s the unquestioned leader of the team, and Cleveland will have to figure out a way to stay afloat until he returns in late July or August.

The Cardinals had a six-game win streak snapped on Thursday and then dropped their weekend series against the Twins. Despite that hiccup in Minnesota, St. Louis’ place in the standings looks pretty secure. The team is leading the NL Wild Card race, a game and a half ahead of the Cubs and Nationals. The Cards have to be happy with their quick turnaround after trading away much of their roster over the last calendar year. Jordan Walker hasn’t slowed down after his hot start to the season, Alec Burleson blasted five home runs last week and has turned into a key cog in the lineup, and Dustin May has shaken off a slow start to post a 2.89 ERA over his last 11 starts.

All of a sudden, the Marlins have shot up the standings, winning 10 of their last 12 games. They reached .500 with their win over the Pirates on Sunday and find themselves just two games back in the Wild Card race. The crazy thing about this hot streak is that they’re doing it with essentially a four-man rotation thanks to a host of injuries on their pitching staff. They’re getting solid contributions from guys like Tyler Phillips and Ryan Gusto alongside the more expected excellence of Max Meyer and Sandy Alcantara.

The Padres have slipped back to the middle of the pack in the NL playoff race. Their biggest issue is that their stars aren’t carrying their share of the load for what has become one of the worst lineups in baseball. The team is running an 87 wRC+, the worst mark in the majors, and has scored the fewest runs as well. Fernando Tatis Jr. has mostly overcome his early season woes; he’s posted a 152 wRC+ since May 17, though he still has just two home runs to his name. Unfortunately, Manny Machado (a 72 wRC+ on the season), Jackson Merrill (75), and Xander Bogaerts (91) are still struggling to make positive contributions, and injuries to role players like Jake Cronenworth, Ramón Laureano, Miguel Andujar, and Freddy Fermin haven’t helped either.

The Athletics held a six-game homestand at their Las Vegas Triple-A affiliate’s stadium last week, and it featured a massive outburst of offense. It started with a wild 15-14 extra-innings defeat on Monday against the Brewers and ended with a 23-9 drubbing at the hands of the Rockies on Sunday; the A’s won the four games in between those two losses. Altogether, 102 runs were scored in the six games, with 35 home runs launched into the hot desert air.

The Pirates have scuffled over the last week and a half, going 3-8 over their last 11 games. It’s hard to fault them for series losses to the Braves and Dodgers, but the team stumbled against the Marlins over the weekend and fell back to .500 for the first time since the beginning of April. The pitching staff has allowed 6.3 runs per game during this stretch. The Pirates are still in the midst of the crowded NL Wild Card race, but it’s clear they’ll need some reinforcements ahead of the trade deadline if they’re serious about making a run this summer.

The Astros have definitely been playing better recently — they’re 13-9 since May 22 — and they’re about to get a lot healthier too. Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz are on track to be activated off the IL on Tuesday, and Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., and Ronel Blanco have all progressed well in their respective recoveries from injury. Javier might be just a week or two away from making it back to the big leagues. That should provide some relief for a pitching staff that has truly struggled this year; only the Rockies have a higher team ERA than the Astros. The man who has been carrying the team this season is Yordan Alvarez. He had 10 hits last week and blasted two home runs in the first inning of a 10-8 victory over the Royals on Friday. He’s leading the AL in home runs and RBI, and overtook Yandy Díaz for the batting average lead this past weekend, giving him a fantastic shot at winning the Triple Crown.

The Red Sox managed to win their weekend series over the Rangers; it was just their fourth series win since the beginning of May. Very little has gone right for Boston during that stretch. Roman Anthony has missed the last month with a sprained finger and isn’t close to returning, while Garrett Crochet suffered a setback in his recovery from the shoulder injury that’s sidelined him since late April and probably won’t be ready to return until after the All-Star break. With two of their best players out and a record that has them at the bottom of the AL East standings, Boston might be looking to restock for next year at the trade deadline.

The Reds continued to plummet down the standings last week, going 2-4 against the Padres and Diamondbacks. Despite a breakout from JJ Bleday and a solid rookie season from Sal Stewart, the rest of Cincinnati’s lineup has been rather disappointing. At least Noelvi Marte provided a silver lining this past weekend. After being demoted to Triple-A on April 12, Marte was recalled two weeks ago. He has collected a hit in every game he’s started since getting back to the majors, and hit home runs in three straight games over the weekend.

Tarik Skubal made his return to the mound on Saturday, just 38 days after undergoing elbow surgery. He didn’t have a great outing, allowing three runs on five hits and a walk in just 4.2 innings against the Guardians, though his velocity was intact. The Tigers wound up losing both games of their rain-shortened series in Cleveland, missing out on an opportunity to gain some ground on the beleaguered Guardians. Detroit’s pitching staff should be further bolstered by the return of Casey Mize on Tuesday, although the team had to place Jack Flaherty on the IL on Saturday with a foot injury. Still, with Skubal back in the fold, the Tigers seem like they’re at a make-or-break point in their season. If they can put together a hot streak over the next few weeks, they could still make some noise in the AL playoff picture.

If you can believe it, the Rockies set a franchise record for runs scored in a single game on Sunday. That that record didn’t come while they were playing in Coors Field makes it all the more shocking. The team called up top prospect Cole Carrigg last week, and he’s already blasted two home runs in his six games in the big leagues. He likely won’t be Colorado’s last prospect to debut this season, either, as despite the outburst on Sunday, the team has limped through May and June and should already be looking towards next year.