Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/24/26

August 24, 2026

2:02	Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I got a little delayed in putting this up thanks to some random life business, so I’m going to let the questions pile up for a second

2:03	Ben Clemens: or rather, I’ll plan on answering the first few nice and slow so that we have time for more

2:03	CT: How does Crane get anyone to take the Astros GM job at this point? Brown was handcuffed, and Click was fired after winning the WS.

2:03	CT: If you were named the Astros’ new GM, how do you approach the next few years?

2:03	Ben Clemens: okay fine, not these, this is just a programming announcement: I’m currently writing about the Astros situation, for an article tomorrow, so probably won’t spend too much time commenting on it today

2:03

Ben Clemens: gotta save those ideas for primetime!

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member

It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.) 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only. 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:

✓Ad-free browsing

✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles

✓Historical & platoon projections

✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps

✓One-click data exports

✓Customizable player-page dashboards

✓Dark & Classic site modes

✓Weekly Members-only mailbag

✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review

✓Optional homepage photo removal

✓Gift articles to non-members

Become a Member

Already a Member? Log in

2:03	Datt Mamon: Where do you stand on the “PCA’s defense and stolen bases are more valuable than Ohtani’s 85 innings” debate (which I also understand has become tiresome)?

2:05	Ben Clemens: I think it’s a fair way of looking at things, to be honest. And while I expect that we’ll talk about it a lot more before awards season, look, what a cool thing to talk about relative to the various storylines we could have instead

2:05	Ben Clemens: ‘what would you prefer, elite CF defense or a half-season of an ace’

2:05	Ben Clemens: that’s a cool question, better than your average mvp discussion of ‘yeah but he was so good at RBI’ or ‘yeah but his team didn’t make the playoffs’

2:06	Ben Clemens: I’m on the PCA side of things, and honestly, this is the kind of thing you can back into from the WAR math if you want to use our formulation for value

2:06	Ben Clemens: PCA has been worth 35 more defensive runs than Ohtani, and that’s debiting Ohtani for playing DH and crediting PCA for great fielding

2:07	Ben Clemens: and then Ohtani has been worht 3 wins as a pitcher. these are kinda close!

2:07	Ben Clemens: if you shade PCA’s defensive numbers down, which I think is quite reasonable when considering single-season defensive estimates, that’s basically a tossup

2:07	Ben Clemens: but then PCA has been worth 10 more runs offensively, ignoring defense. that’s a mixture of baserunning and jsut a marginally better batting line

2:08

Ben Clemens: very fun mvp race. If Ohtani were still pitching, I think I’d favor him by a decent amount. BUt it’s been a month of not racking up value there, PCA continues to hit like crazy, and man, it just looks like he deserves it this year. still a month’s worth of games before we have to pick but I love how good this race has been

2:08	InsertWittyNameHere: US Open time! Sad about Sinner, but at least Alcaraz is back. Going chalk? I’m waiting for that Joao (sp?) to break out, equivalent to a AA prospect or something?.

2:09

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I concur. I’m kinda into Rafa Jodar this year, and not even just b/c he went to UVa and I’m a homer. It feels to me like the US Open is a place where young up-and-comers often break out, with my not at all scientific guess being that it’s at the end of the season when their youth helps most for recovery, and also when they’ve had the most time on the pro tour (that year) to kind of adjust to things and develop

2:10	Ben Clemens: but yeah, Fonseca is super fun too. He also brings out an electric crowd, which I love

2:10	Ben Clemens: some of the mixed doubles teams are incredible this year. Alcaraz and Serena?!? Definitely gonna watch that

2:10	oaktownblues: In your “arbitrary statistics” article last week, Zack Gelof was one of the four hitters who was above average in all of your metrics, but he was just below the 300 PA threshold you set for the weighted Z-score table. Would he have made the table if he was above the threshold?

2:11	Ben Clemens: ooh, I think I can just check that

2:11	Ben Clemens: no

2:12	Ben Clemens: he’s 74th overall. not a great standout in any category, really

2:12	Ben Clemens: it’s not like that means he’s a bad hitter. but I don’t think he’s the kind of guy that exercise was looking for

2:12	Jamey: Is there a way to see Ohtani’s pitching stats? I can’t for the life of me find them on his player page…

2:13	Ben Clemens: on desktop, there should be a toggle at the top of the ribbon on the left, batting (in green) or pitching

2:13	Ben Clemens: but it looks like that’s desktop only, I can’t figure it out in mobile

2:14	bosoxforlife: I wish i could get back into tennis but it will never be able to reach the level it had when three of the all-time greats were beating each other up and the bench included great players like Murray and Wawrinka.

2:14	Ben Clemens: you know, it’s at least possible that we are headed for a second, similar golden age

2:14	Ben Clemens: but I do agree that I am such a big tennis fan because of the many Nadal/Federer matches I watched in some formative sports-following years

2:14	TKDC: If you give credit to Ohtani for the value his versatility brings when he hits and pitches, don’t you also need to ding him for when he is a position-less DH? Does he somehow get credit for theoretical versatility?

2:15	David: Regarding the MVP race, is Ohtani’s value dinged somewhat by his taking up the dh slot and reducing roster flexibility? When Will Smith comes back for example, he’ll have to catch because the Dodgers won’t be able to ease him in by having him dh.

2:15	Ben Clemens: I mean, we give him the standard DH positional penalty, which I would argue is too high

2:15	Ben Clemens: and I have never really been a buyer of the ‘give him extra credit for multiple roster spots’ thing

2:16

Ben Clemens: like, WAR is not the perfect stat. it’s certainly n ot the only statistic int he world I care about. but part of what I like about it is its ‘simplicity’, in that it takes some simple principles and applies them across the board. and having some kind of special roster construction bonus feels wrong to me in that framework

2:16	Ben Clemens: but our WAR doesn’t have that, so I feel like at least within the way we define value, we’re getting him right

2:16	oaktownblues: On mobile for Ohtani, you have to hit “menu” in the top right and then you can select pitching

2:16	oaktownblues: But the “menu” in the top left doesn’t pop up until you scroll down

2:16	Ben Clemens: wonderful, thank you very much for figuring out my answer for me

2:17	Ben Clemens:

2:17

Eshan Mehere: how much noise is z-swing y2y.. thinking about this in the context of spencer jones. can he be a successful big leaguer running a high chase like he is right now? guys like gallo judge etc were elite because of combo of low chase and low z con but jones has combo of high z swing and similarly low z con. basically asking can a bump in swinging at hittable pitches at an elite level compensate for spitting at bad pitches at an elite level

2:17	Ben Clemens: mmmmmmm…. this is a great question and I think that the only honest answer is that it’s complicated

2:18	Ben Clemens: basically it’s doable, but generally speaking it’s a hard way to succeed

2:18	Ben Clemens: because swings have many outcomes, both good and bad, and taking a pitch outside of the zone has overwhelmingly positive outcomes, you can sacrifice more in-zone swings than out-of-zone swings and still prosper

2:18	Ben Clemens: and Jones has a thing going on where he has an incredible deterrent for pitchers challenging him even if he’s patient

2:18	Ben Clemens: that deterrent being, have you seen the size of that dude?

2:19	Ben Clemens: Spencer Jones could be up there with a blindfold promising not to swing and I bet pitchers would think twice about pumping him a 0-0 fastball

2:19	Ben Clemens: basically I’d say this. YOu can make it work with aggression. but it’s gonna be noisy, and full of bad slumps, if that’s your approach

2:20	Ben Clemens: this specific question is one I’ve thought about quite a lot over the years in trying to think about guys who have almost every tool but meh plate discipline

2:21	Ben Clemens: basically with his contact rate, i’d prefer him to err on the side of not swinging. he’s not Junior Caminero out there, where he combines the power with feel to hit

2:21	Ben Clemens: okay as a heads up, I am gonna have to call this chat in fairly short order, maybe 15 minutes or so? Have to pick up my dog from the vet, she has to get sedated to go and will be up soon

2:21	Ben Clemens: I was expecting that to happen later, but such is life. so speed round for the next 15 minutes until I have to go

2:22

war2d2: Re: formative sports watching: did you have a relative that was into tennis? I came to baseball because of my granddad, who was into college football, baseball, NFL, and college basketball, in that order. I personally (having gone to a mediocre state school with no sports to speak of) can’t see rooting for a college you didn’t go to, and I find basketball and, to a lesser extent, football boring anyway. So baseball it was, is, and ever shall be.

2:22	Ben Clemens: one of my best friends basically

2:22	Ben Clemens: best man at my wedding played club tennis in college, and is a huge tennis follower overall

2:22	Ben Clemens: and it happens to really line up with the way I think about sports. it’s really fascinating, great mental battles, fun to watch, lends itself to replay

2:22	Ben Clemens: and yeah, boy it sure was lucky that I started watching in the greatest spectator phase of tennis of all time

2:23

David: We always hear about how the postseason is random, but is there a point at which one team would be overwhelmingly likely to win? Like if the 2024 Dodgers squared off against the White Sox that year in a hypothetical seven-game series, could we safely predict they would win? If not the White Sox, then what about a AAA team?

2:23	Ben Clemens: yeah if you’re saying like, 80% likely, definitely

2:23	Ben Clemens: if you want to get it up into the 90s, I would imagine you need even more than the White Sox. YOu know, they won series that year, etc.

2:23	Ben Clemens: but a triple-a team? for sure

2:23	gillum: With a real MLB bullpen and not the clown show they ran out there this year, is it reasonable to expect the Royals to compete for a playoff spot in 27? Or do they need too many other pieces? If they don’t get it together soon, Witt is as good as gone.

2:24	Ben Clemens: I think it’s possible assuming really good health. Like, I don’t think this year’s offense is sufficient. But a full year of a healthy Garcia would change that equation for me. Jac working out raises the ceiling meaningfully on offense

2:25

SPArn: I think I’m addicted to the AL West “race” (and think we need a word besides race). The Rangers went 4-6 against the Angels and A’s, their best starter is Cal Quantrill, and they probably had the best two weeks. The Mariners lost by two touchdowns and a field goal twice in five days and are only 9 runs better than the Angels by run differential. The Astros blew a 6 run lead (against the A’s) at home and lost for the first time since 2011, then fired their GM on 8/24 even though they’re in first place. I don’t really have a question, I just hope you are enjoying it alongside me

2:25	Ben Clemens: it’s so good

2:25	Ben Clemens: nobody wants it

2:25	tomsteele: i miss five things! it is always one of the five things i like about the internet each week

2:25	Ben Clemens: it’ll be back this week

2:25	Ben Clemens: we’ll see about frequency

2:25	Ben Clemens: it is fun to write, and obviously I like observing baseball and writing little things down. it just didn’t really fit into my calendar, it’s been a very busy summer with a lot of tentpole projects and whatnot

2:26	Ben Clemens: when I’m watching baseball for 5 things, I’m watching as a fan, not an analyst, if that makes sense

2:26	Ben Clemens: and I’ve just been squeezing in a lot of analyst-hat stuff this summer

2:26	oaktownblues: Since you frequently talk tennis and books, I’m curious if you’ve read Infinite Jest?

2:26	Ben Clemens: I have. Big David Foster Wallace fan in general. Infinite Jest is TOUGH to get through though, haha

2:27	Ben Clemens: I feel like I’m more of a fan of his essays. roger federer as religious experience came out at the perfect time to get me more interested in both tennis and Wallace

2:27	Ben Clemens: and in the NY Times magazine, which I always bought to do crosswords

2:27	Jamey: Further on PCA: How concerned are you about the chasm between his hitting stats and his xStats? It seems likely he’s due for a large regression to the mean.

2:27	Ben Clemens: eh, a little. I don’t really think he’s 60% above average offensively

2:28	Ben Clemens: but like…. i’m ‘concerned’ in that I don’t think he’s a true-talent 10 win player

2:28	Ben Clemens: for more specifics, because I have thought about PCA quite a bit in the context of long-term trade value, he was #3 on trade value this year and I wrote about it at length in his blurb

2:28	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-trade-value-nos-1-10/

2:29	alec_eiffel: Can/should anything be done about the position-player-as-pitcher-to-mop-up issue? Perhaps teams can get an extra roster spot designated for a mop-up player who can only be used after the 6th inning and the run differntial is 8 or more runs?

2:29	Ben Clemens: i don’t exactly know what should be done but I do think something shoudl be done

2:29	Ben Clemens: it’s getting embarrassing

2:30

war2d2: Hey Ben! Counsell yanked Imanaga in the 3rd inning yesterday even though he wasn’t hurt (maybe? his velo was down a tick). He explained it after the fact as it being the time of year where you need to start going for it. Do you agree with that sentiment? There’s something like 5 weeks of games left, it seems like you’d burn your BP to the ground if you hit the gas this early.

2:30	Ben Clemens: yeah, I don’t like it, but I give Counsell the benefit of the doubt on managerial decisions, and especially for stuff liek this where he might know more than he’s letting on

2:31	Ben Clemens: now if it turns into a pattern, if they’re basically running all hands on deck every single game and back-to-backing their best relievers with abandon and so on, I will develop a stronger take

2:31	Ben Clemens: but for now, yeah I agree with your sentiment that acting like there’s no tomorrow now would be too early. I just can’t imagine that’s ACTUALLY their real plan

2:31	fincampbell05: Is Trevor Story going to be designated for assignment in the next two weeks?

2:31	Ben Clemens: curious to see. that would be my guess

2:32	Ben Clemens: man I was reading some rehab assignment updates as I try to figure out which game I need to set aside to see Anthony’s return

2:32	Ben Clemens: and I saw IKF’s and Story’s batting lines in their rehab assignments, woof

2:32	bosoxforlife: The 22-0 and 19-2 shellackings that the Mariners took brings me back to my belief that run differential is not a usable stat. Much of this scoring is done against position players and I don’t know of any system that separates and adjusts for these farcical games.

2:32	Ben Clemens: completely agree

2:33	Ben Clemens: I wrote about this last year a little: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/checking-in-on-pythagoras/

2:33	Ben Clemens: more specifically, about doing a game-by-game pythag, so that you care about individual scores and a 22-0 game is basically the same as a 10-0 game

2:34	Ben Clemens: but the improvement is very small

2:34	Ben Clemens: which basically means that all these estimates of team strength are kinda hand-wavy in any case, whether you use run differential or something fancier

2:34	Ben Clemens: that’s fun to me in that it means baseball is still hard to predict, still a game, still a place where randomness has hold on the world

2:35	Ben Clemens: but yeah, I agree with you, run differential is not really a sufficient statistic to explain team strenght

2:35	soupmonkey: Do you think anyone in SF loses their job in the FO or coaching staff this offseason?

2:35	Ben Clemens: I mean, it would be shocking if they didn’t

2:35	Ben Clemens: after the year they’ve had, on and off the field

2:35	Ben Clemens: more likely coaching staff given that the farm system is headed in the right direction

2:36	SPArn: A note on the Astros situation, and why anyone would take the job – there are only 30, you never know if you’ll get another bite at the apple. See: Micah Nori taking the frankly offensive low dollar, one year deal to be the Blazers head coach

2:36	Ben Clemens: yeah. these things always find takers

2:36	Ben Clemens: I’d take the job

2:36	Ben Clemens: and I love living in California, hate the heat and the humidity, and agree that it’d be a really rough job rubber stamping Jeff Bagwell’s decisions

2:36	Ben Clemens: anyway, Jim Crane, call me

2:37

war2d2: Re: The position-player-as-pitcher debacle that’s sweeping the sport: I believe that some fairly draconian steps are necessary. What I’d do if elected as god-emperor of the sport: 1) hard limit on number of pitchers on the roster. If a position player passes some arbitrary (and very low) innings limit, he counts against that limit for the remainder of the year. 2) Once a position player enters the game you lose all replay and ABS challenges for the game, even if you come back and it goes into extras (this is hardly a deterrent, but last week I was watching a game where the defense went to replay even though a catcher was on the mound and it drove me up the wall). 3) I believe it’s currently the rule that you can’t bring in a position player as pitcher until after the 7th and you’re up by 8 or something like that. I propose it should be 8th/up by 10.

2:37	Ben Clemens: I like the idea of just hammering teams for doing it, that’s kinda fun

2:37	Ben Clemens: and yeah, it’s a great exmaple of how teams optimizing things can ruin the fun quotient, but this needs to stop

2:37	hibbert: I feel like men’s tennis is kind of like three true outcomes baseball, where it’s massive serves and power and less artistry than the Ivan Lendl heyday. On the plus side, women’s tennis has all kinds of stylistic differences and a lot more parity.

2:37	Ben Clemens: definitely the greatest drawback of men’s tennis today, though I’d argue that many of the greatest players are transcending that

2:38	Ben Clemens: yes, there’s a lot of power baselining, and it’s not that fun. I actually think that was worse at the tail end of the Nadal/Djokovic era, tbh

2:38	Ben Clemens: but like, Alcaraz is tremendously fun. some of the young players are very fun. Sinner…. eh, look, Sinner mainly just hits the crap out of the ball, but he’s adding a ton to his game in real time

2:39	Ben Clemens: definitely agree with you on how fun it is to watch women’s tennis, though

2:39	Ben Clemens: some of the parity is ‘fake’ in that it’s driven by them playing 3 setters in slams instead of 5, but also there’s more parity, and generally speaking I think tennis is more entertaining when hold% is lwoer

2:39	Ben Clemens: hold% is lower in women’s tennis b/c the serves aren’t as hard. so in that sense, I’m really with you

2:39	soupmonkey: Mahle is seemingly a different pitcher in ATL than he was in SF. Any idea why?

2:40	Ben Clemens: not really sure, but yeah, change of scenery candidate, never seemed to click in SF but also the talent was not really in question

2:41	Ben Clemens: I feel like sometimes guys like him in general – talented dude, plenty of injury concerns in the past, bounced around and often follows good years with bad years — just need to find somewhere that works for them

2:41	Ben Clemens: without being in the locker room or anything, I don’t feel confident making stronger declarations about what has changed. I actually liked teh Mahle signing quite a bit, surprised it didn’t work out better

2:42	Ben Clemens: alright everyone, thanks for bearing with me today, and apologies for the short chat, but I have to head to the vet to get my dog

2:42	Ben Clemens: have a wonderful week, and I’ll talk to you next week for more of the same

2:42	Ben Clemens: or this weekend at saber seminar if you’re going, I’m very excited

6 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

StuSheaMember since 2018

1 month ago

Old people like me remember Borg/Connors/Nastase/McEnroe/Lendl as a great era for men’s tennis.

Pirates HurdlesMember since 2020

Reply to StuShea

Or slightly younger – Sampras/Agassi/Courier era for American fans.

ichiro262Member since 2024

As an M’s fan, I think I disagree on the position players pitching thing. If I’m winning, it’s kinda fun to see guys take hacks off a utility infielder and juice their stats. If I’m losing, the game’s already miserable. Seeing Leo Rivas on the mound turns only turns it from “we’re getting crushed and this sucks” to “we’re still getting crushed and it sucks but now I get to root for Leo Rivas inducing a whiff with a 39mph eephus pitch. I’d definitely say you lose your challenges when you have a position player pitching and the pitch clock should speed up.

But people seem to hate it. What am I missing?

MoMember since 2024

Reply to ichiro262

To each his own, but I turn the game off when position players pitch.

beanbongMember

It cheapens the game and it’s happening enough now that it’s not really a fun novelty anymore.

Sonny LMember since 2017

Reply to beanbong

The competition among position players to see who can throw the slowest strike needs to end.

It shall be replaced by a position player throwing 65 while doing imitations of his teammates’ windups and quirks. Oh and grunting. They gotta let eat on the grunt front.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG