Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/5/24

August 5, 2024

2:00	Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, let’s get chatting

2:00	Ryan: Is Profar on a 1 million dollar deal one of the better signings of the last decade?

2:01	Ben Clemens: Has to be, right?

2:02	Ben Clemens: Just in terms of return on investment or whatever, and looking at the results

2:02	Ben Clemens: Maybe I’d prefer signing Max Scherzer as the Nats or whatever, but Profar just gives so much value

2:02	Nic: Thoughts on Austin Wells? If this his true hitting and fielding level, he looks like a star? No?

2:02	Ben Clemens: Definitely yes

2:02	Ben Clemens: Now, it seems unlikely that this is his true level

2:02	Ben Clemens: he’s hitting meaningfully better at the major league level than he did in the minors

2:03	Ben Clemens: I think he’ll be a pretty good defender, probably not the very best in the game or anything, but quite good

2:03	Appa Yip Yip: Has Vladdy finally emerged as the Prince Who Was Promised?

2:03	Ben Clemens: I think that was 2021

2:03	Ben Clemens: then he got demoted

2:05	Ben Clemens: or perhaps he abdicated, I’m not quite sure how royalty works

2:05	Ben Clemens: But I think that you can look at Vlad as more of an elite 1b than you could have last year

2:05	Oaktown Blues: Are you on the Lawrence Butler hype train?

2:06	Ben Clemens: Heck yeah

2:06	Ben Clemens: I’m not exactly sure what the long term looks like here

2:07	Ben Clemens: but the A’s have done a really good job of finding interesting players as they are kinda bad

2:07	Ben Clemens: huge credit to them for that

2:08	Ben Clemens: I really like what they’ve done around getting guys into positions to succeed

2:08	Ben Clemens: it makes the general awfulness of the ownership group more annoying

2:08	Ben Clemens: I really want to like the A’s

2:08	Talfred: What will the ChiSox do with Benintendi after this season? Two straight years of negative WAR as he embarks on his 30s, with three years left on that comtract.

2:08	Ben Clemens: I mean, they’ll probably just keep plyaing him while he’s awful

2:08

Colton: Masyn Winn’s improvements this year have been nothing short of incredible IMO, especially when you consider the results from his cup of coffee last season. Do you think the Cardinals should try locking him up to an extension now, similar to what the Braves did with Albies and maybe buy out a year or two of free agency?

2:09	Ben Clemens: uh, I do not think anyone should try to do something similar to what the Braves did with Albies

2:09	Ben Clemens: that contract was just kinda gross and raises questions to me about his representation

2:09	Ben Clemens: there are plenty of contracts that benefit both team and player without being so egregious

2:10

Ben Clemens: that said, I do think that the Cardinals should talk extension with Winn. It feels like there’s just a lot here to like, in terms of both how St. Louis likes to build teams (defense first, particularly up the middle) and how it feels like they really need a homegrown talent to stick after a lot of fool’s gold in recent years

2:11	Ben Clemens: I’m not sure what a deal would look like, that’s probably a question for Dan Szymborski and the ZiPS extension prediction machine

2:11	Ben Clemens: but this feels like a good pairing

2:11

Phil: Wilyer Abreu has had a terrific year against righties and defensively, and finally hit a home run against a lefty last night. Do you think maybe he’s been a little underrated by the prospect folks? To me, a good right fielder who plays against all righties and certain sorts of lefties is a more valuable player than your typical platoon guy, and he’s sustained a roughly 130ish WRC+ long enough at this point that I’m skeptical of the projections that still have him at 100-110.

2:11	Ben Clemens: I think that he’s definitely underrated

2:12	Ben Clemens: that said, the projections do a good job

2:12	Ben Clemens: like, he’s sustained a 130-ish wRC+ for…. 300 PA’s

2:12	Ben Clemens: 350 counting last year

2:12	Ben Clemens: and it sure looks like it’s in a way that feeds a lot off of an unsustainable babip

2:12	Ben Clemens: like it can be true that he’s underrated and also…. well I don’t think he’s gonna keep slugging .520?

2:13	M’s Fan: Is Logan Gilbert underrated at this point?

2:14	Ben Clemens: Kinda hard to figure out how he’s generally perceived

2:14	Ben Clemens: I think he’s one of the best players and most valuable contract/player combos in baseball

2:14	Ben Clemens: so definitely not within the game. by fans, I’m not 100% sure iether way

2:14	Appa Yip Yip: I think the Acuña and Albies deals broke something in a lot of fans’ brains because too many people have unrealistic expectations about locking up every young player on their team.

2:14	Ben Clemens: Yeah I agree with this

2:15	Ben Clemens: there are many contracts that work for everyone

2:15	Ben Clemens: honestly the Braves have signed a lot of those

2:15	Ben Clemens: maybe the Michael Harris II contract is a more realistic standard

2:15	Ben Clemens: good deal for everyone, he surely left money on the table, but he traded that for plenty of certainty and no one is too sad about it

2:17	Ben Clemens: those Albies/Acuna deals are just not happening anymore. the players are aware that deals like that just don’t work

2:17	Kwanbelievable: Do the Guardians have enough starting pitching to hold on to the 1st overall seed in the AL? I think the Cobb deal was a stroke of genius, but unsure if it moves the needle enough

2:17	Ben Clemens: I think it’s probably just a little short

2:19	Ben Clemens: which is okay as far as I’m concerned

2:19	Ben Clemens: I think they did a really good job of setting the team up for success and also working within themselves given a deadline that didn’t line up particularly well for them, in terms of being starter-needy

2:20	Guest: Reds, Cubs, Nats, Rangers: All seem to be out of it this season; which team has the best hopes for the playoffs next season?

2:20	Ben Clemens: probably the Rangers

2:20	Ben Clemens: I thought that the sheer amount of pitching injuries in their projected rotation meant that they’d have trouble hitting the playoffs this year

2:20	Ben Clemens: That doesn’t change what I think about their long-term trajectory, though: they have a bunch of good players and a nice youth movement, and they’re gonna spend

2:21	Ben Clemens: They also play in a division with the Angels and A’s, neither of whom are going to be great next year

2:21	Sonny: Leaks about Manfred’s gag order around Oakland buyers seems bizarre. Didn’t the rest of the league waive the relocation fee? What is the point of all of this? Who believes any part of MLB is better for Fishers ownership?

2:21	Ben Clemens: I think that trying to figure out what’s going on here is a good way to drive yourself crazy

2:21	Ben Clemens: i have absolutely no idea what the league is doing here and I’m not sure they do either

2:22	Ben Clemens: There’s a good article up at BP about what might actually happen to drive FIsher out, btw

2:22

Derek: It’s pretty easy to crap on the Angels, but it actually seems like they’re in a very weird spot. Obviously a perpetually injured Trout is complicated, but they’ve also got a couple real foundational-looking pieces in O’Hoppe and Neto. Schanuel has been hitting a bit and Rengifo just seems like he’s good now. Is their pitching so far gone that you just trade all of those guys ASAP and tear it down to start over? Or is there enough there to try to go for a quick “reload” or whatever euphemism you prefer? How does Trout factor into all this, either healthy or injured?

2:22	Ben Clemens: I think it depends what your goal is

2:23	Ben Clemens: if you’re trying to build a team that makes the playoffs over some sustainable amount of time, you have to blow it all up

2:23	Ben Clemens: tehre’s just so little going on in the farm system, and also the big league club is 15 games below .500 with these nice foundational pieces (I like Neto more than O’Hoppe but I agree they’re good)

2:24	Ben Clemens: We have them dead last in farm system rankings, and we’re not alone in that. It makes sense, they emptied everything out last year trying to make one last run with Mike and Shohei

2:24	Ben Clemens: so like, it’s unlikely that things will improve organically

2:24	Ben Clemens: if your goal is just to not be embarrassing while Mike Trout is on your team, I’d probably keep everyone young and just try to be respectable around him

2:25	Ben Clemens: really depends on what the team wants to do, but I cannot look at this roster and general organization and say ‘yep, they’re pretty close’

2:25	bosoxforlife: I would like to give a shout out to George Kirby for his honoring Tim Wakefield with an opening pitch knuckleball in his recent start against the Red Sox.

2:25	Ben Clemens: Kirby seems really cool in addition to being really good, and this is a good reminder

2:25	Shoeless Joe: Man, how did the White Sox get THIS bad? Can’t they find enough replacement-level players to play, you know, replacement-level baseball?

2:25	Ben Clemens: you know, shockingly enough, we all kind of saw this coming

2:26	Ben Clemens: this offseason I wrote an article specifically about how awful the White Sox’ depth is

2:26	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-not-to-build-for-depth/

2:27	Ben Clemens: we looked at them going into the season when we were looking at new ways of calculating depth and found something similar:

2:27	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-new-way-of-looking-at-depth/

2:27	Ben Clemens: basically the upper minors just don’t have replacement level players

2:27	Ben Clemens: we knew this going in

2:27	Ben Clemens: their upper minors, specifically

2:28	Ben Clemens: They’ve had injuries ,they weren’t set up well to handle them in the first place, and they’re bad

2:28	Ben Clemens: this was actually a foreseeable train wreck

2:28	John B: The comps on baseball reference says Nolan Gorman still was on a path to look like Killebrew or Gaetti or Thome. Thoughts ?

2:28	Ben Clemens: my thoughts are that those comps don’t always work that well

2:28	Ben Clemens: and yeah, I do not agree with that?

2:28	Judge: Judge has almost caught future HOF Bryce Harper in WAR… and he started 5 years later.

2:28	Ben Clemens: It’s outrageous

2:30	Ben Clemens: I feel like no one can truly appreciate it when it’s happening

2:30	Ben Clemens: but we’re basically seeing Barry Bonds 2.0

2:30	Jackson Holliday: What are you seeing different by me in my second stint?

2:31	Ben Clemens: given that it’s been 5 games I haven’t read a lot into it, and to be honest I have been watching more Olympics than baseball in the past week

2:31	Ben Clemens: you only get these once every four years, and so on

2:31	Ben Clemens: but man, what a relief for the O’s

2:31	C-Low: Do you think Orioles can come to an extension with Gunnar or has that ship sailed?

2:31	Ben Clemens: I’m sure they can, but until they sign at least one extension it’s hard to know what their plan is

2:32	Ben Clemens: so I’m betting against it for now

2:32	John B: If the pirates make the playoffs do you ride Skenes hard and go for gold ?

2:32	Ben Clemens: I think it’s up to him

2:34	Ben Clemens: you can’t make him do anytihng he doesn’t want to

2:34	Ben Clemens: but like, I assume he wants to and I assume the team wants to

2:34	birds: If the Orioles offered the Witt contract to Gunnar you think he’d take it?

2:34	Ben Clemens: I’m not sure. I would though

2:34	Ben Clemens: if I were him, I mean

2:34	Ben Clemens: great deal for both sides with the opt outs, imo

2:34	Benjamin, J: What would it take for Emmanuel Clase to win and/or deserve the AL Cy Young?

2:35	Ben Clemens: I think he’d need to convert to starting…

2:35	Ben Clemens: I mean, incredible year

2:35	Ben Clemens: but not Cy Young worthy imo

2:35	André René Roussimoff: The White Sox being so awful could have an upside if they use the wretchedness to stock the system with great young players for tomorrow à la the Orioles. Is that plausible with the current ownership and front office?

2:35	Ben Clemens: I think they are no doubt trying to do that

2:35	Ben Clemens: let me give you the counterpoint…. we said this about the White Sox in 2016

2:36	Ben Clemens: they hit a bunch of trades about as well as you can hit them…. and got all the way up to low-end playoff contention

2:36	Ben Clemens: now they’re torching it all again with worse supporting cast

2:36	Ben Clemens: and with not as good players as Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Adam Eaton

2:36	Ben Clemens: so, I don’t think this is gonna somehow end up better

2:36	Derek: Any Olympic events you’ve been particularly enjoying?

2:37	Ben Clemens: Oh man, I was waiting for someone to ask me this question

2:37	Ben Clemens: I love track and field, the 10k race was absolutely incredible. Archery was really cool, fencing more exciting than I expected, some of the swimming has been great

2:39	Ben Clemens: have you seen synchronized diving? I can’t do anything remotely as well as these people do the same thing, together

2:40

Fitting: Far as I can tell the best single season two player WAR total since integration is A-Rod and Griffey at 19.1. This is followed by a bunch of Bonds And Friend. There is a pretty solid chane that Judge/Soto beats this, and I honestly think it would be cool given that all the duos above them played when the two of them couldn’t. (Also true of any Griffey or Bonds duo, obviously.)

2:40	Ben Clemens: yeah, very cool

2:40	Ben Clemens: Michael Baumann’s article last week about this was awesome

2:40	Bill: Gotta love Summer MacIntosh, 17 years old and 3 gold medal, if we was in baseball she would have 13 more great year

2:40	Ben Clemens: Katie Ledecky having the 20 fastest times in 1500 free history is also outrageous

2:40	Ben Clemens: swimming isj ust cool

2:40

bosoxforlife: I know Bobby Witt and Aaron Judge are great and front runners for the MVP but I simply can’t get enough of the continued brilliance of Jose Ramirez. The Guardians have no reason to be where they are without his almost invisible greatness. Ignore the numbers and I see a player with every quality you would want in a player including loyalty to his city.

2:40	Ben Clemens: completely agree

2:40	Ben Clemens: I write about him quite a bit and I always feel basically that way

2:41	Ben Clemens: every year in the trade value series, a few team people will be like ‘JRam that high? you sure?’

2:41	Ben Clemens: and i’m like

2:41	Ben Clemens: yep!

2:41	TheJack20: If Royce is healthy (big if) where does he rank among MLB 3rd basemen? After Jose and maybe Bregman I can’t find many players I’d definitively say are better.

2:41	Ben Clemens: I’d prefer Austin Riley, Devers, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Westburg. I might NOT prefer Bregman tbh

2:42	Okra: I’m really confused by the direction the Rays took at the deadline. Mostly because I think Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe were better players to trade away than Paredes given they weren’t only moving guys if the return was great. What are your thoughts?

2:42	Ben Clemens: wrote about it last week, I didn’t think they did a good job given the goals they were trying to accomplish

2:42	Derek: I’d like to shout out volleyball (indoor, though beach is also cool and probably more popular). Especially now that they’re into the knockout rounds. The rhythm of buildup of tension and then momentary respite is like baseball at 50x speed

2:43	Ben Clemens: indoor gives you a baseball feel. beach is more improvisational, which I kinda like

2:43	Ben Clemens: I like that the Olympics are rare, I couldn’t handle all these random sports every year

2:43	Ben Clemens: but it’s really a blast b/c you know it’s gonna be gone so soon

2:43	Mike Trout: Mike Trout 🙁

2:43	Ben Clemens: Couldn’t agree more

2:43	Ben Clemens: just really sad

2:44	Matt: Any comments on the Phillies recent slide?

2:44	Ben Clemens: I dunno, they didn’t really feel like the best team in baseball to me, and it’s a long season

2:45	Ben Clemens: nothing feels too crazy, I’m sure they’ll pull out of it

2:45

M’s Fan: a lot of draft coverage posited that m’s pick Cijntje can’t hack it as a lefty even part time because of his stuff (91-92, slurvy slider). However the m’s literally currently have lefties on the 40 man and 26 man with similar stuff (Saucedo). What’s with the scouting confidence here that Cijntje can’t hack it?

2:45	Ben Clemens: a lot of it is that scouts like to be confident

2:46	Ben Clemens: do you want to read ‘in truth, the error bars on this player are extremely wide. no one thought paul skenes was the best pitcher in baseball when drafted and it turns out he is, and spencer torkelson can’t hack it in the majors’

2:46	Soto: hey I’m literally having my best season over here

2:46	Ben Clemens: the Yankees are getting these two epic performances, and everyohne else is doing their best to make them not count, it’s kind of amazing to watch

2:47	jj: Benintendi has the largest contract in White Sox history. Simply amazing

2:47	Ben Clemens: No comments other than that

2:47	Robbie314: Should I worry more about the daily fluctuations in my retirement account, or the daily fluctuations in my team’s playoff probability?

2:47	Ben Clemens: oh man

2:47	Ben Clemens: great question

2:47	Ben Clemens: probably retirement account

2:47	Ben Clemens: but probably don’t worry about either?

2:48	Theo be Praised: Is Michael Busch’s production sustainable? 30+ K-rate, doesn’t hit the ball that hard, yet has a 127 wRC+….

2:48	Ben Clemens: I’m not a big believer

2:48	Ben Clemens: Kind of a classic one, he doesn’t really strike me a a .350 BABIP true talent guy because he’s not a mythical creature or Ichiro

2:48	Ben Clemens: so like… probably that won’t keep happening

2:48	bosoxforlife: Blake Snell has suddenly become a very interesting puzzle. He has 1 win but his last 2 starts have been unbelievable. What does he do? Take the option or try free agency and what will the GM’s do? This isn’t risk/reward, it is closer to success or suicide for the GM’s

2:49	Ben Clemens: the rest of the year is more important here than for your average player

2:49	Ben Clemens: it really does track that he wasn’t ready and then got hurt right away so the early-season stats are kinda suspect

2:49	Ben Clemens: but then there’s not a TON of sample since then

2:49	Ben Clemens: he looks really good when he’s on, no doub

2:50	Ben Clemens: I think that he’ll end up opting out… but I also think that the next two months matter more than the season so far when it comes to what he does

2:50	Ben (No wait, Matt): Who wins the AL West? I feel like the Astros need Verlander back in a big way, especially with the McCullers and Garcia recent setbacks…

2:50	Ben Clemens: I think the Mariners are gonna pull it out in the end

2:50	Ben Clemens: that Houston pitching staff is just…. I’m not seeing it

2:51	Ben Clemens: also Kyle Tucker is squarely trending towards not playing

2:51	Guest: Thoughts on the lost season from Vauhgn Grisson? Seems like a promising player and the change of scenery was good — then inuries.

2:51	Ben Clemens: Yeah, injured all year

2:51	Okra: I feel like Crochet saying he wants an extension before pitching in the playoffs was a big deal. 1- i think it tanked his trade value and 2- MLB players have never really ‘held out’ or made such demands. What are your thoughts?

2:51	Ben Clemens: I’d be surprised if it completely tanked his trade value

2:52	Ben Clemens: because I think part of the appeal of getting Crochet is that you can get him to sign a few extra years at a reasonable rate

2:52	Ben Clemens: now, maybe he actually had a huge contract extension demand, that part I’m not sure of

2:52	Ben Clemens: but I think that his demand is reasonable given the extraordinary circumstances here

2:53	Ben Clemens: he’s SO far above his previous career high in innings, and he wouldn’t be familiar with the medical staff and managerial group of the team he’s joining

2:53	Ben Clemens: I’d be shocked if this becomes the norm

2:53	Okra: Why does no one even question the 2% inflation target? It’s taken as gospel but why not 3%? Or 2.5%? And wouldn’t everyone rather have a job and inflation at 2.8%, rather than inflation at 2.2% and no job? Not quite that binary but ….

2:53	Ben Clemens: ha, fun question and there’s a good planet money about this

2:54	Ben Clemens: it’s really kind of in the eye of hte beholder. why not 1%, even? the idea was to set a positive rate so that deflation was less likely but moving the target around, maybe even a 1-3% band or whatnot, feels just as justified by the literature as a static target

2:54	BlueJayMatt: Does Ross Atkins get another year or will this season’s utter failure finally get him fired?

2:55	Ben Clemens: I think that this year is probably gonna do it for him

2:55	Yosh Peck: Jarren Duran, still bad???

2:55	Chris: hey, anthony volpe’s top 15 in war!

2:55	Ben Clemens: I love Red Sox and Yankees hot takes

2:55	Doug: How do you see the NL Wild Card shaking out? The Braves going to hold on?

2:56	Ben Clemens: I think the Braves, Mets, and Padres will end up in

2:56	Juan Soto: Where am I playing next year?

2:56	Ben Clemens: Yankees

2:56	Steve O: That’s a little unfair to the other Yankees, isn’t it? I mean they are tied for first place and have several other good players.

2:56	Ben Clemens: haha it’s definitely unfair to the other Yankees

2:56	Ben Clemens: they’re a very good team

2:56	Ben Clemens: but, when you have stars THAT starr-y, everyone looks worse in comparison

2:56	Ben Clemens: alright, I have to run, working on an article about the worst pitches of the year for tomorrow

2:56	Ben Clemens: have a great one, everyone

2:56	Ben Clemens: and watch some olympics!

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG