Big Hurt Still Hurtful
Right after he was released by the Toronto Blue Jays, we asked the question “is Frank Thomas done?”
At the time of his release, Thomas had posted the following core statistics: 15.5% BB%, 21.7% K%, 11.5% HR/FB%. The driving force behind his struggles was a .159 batting average on balls in play, which screamed regression to the mean. Based on the fact that his underlying skill set hadn’t changed, I concluded that Thomas still had productive baseball left in his bat, and there was no reason to believe that he had fallen off a sudden cliff.
Since signing with the A’s, Thomas has posted the following core statistics: 14.6% BB%, 22.0% K%, 11.1% HR/FB%. The driving force behind his rebound is a .350 batting average on balls in play. That’s actually regression a little bit past the mean, but the idea still works. There’s been absolutely no change in Thomas’ skills since moving to Oakland – he’s just getting better results from those same skills.
There were all kinds of subjective opinions being offered up that Thomas was overweight, had a slower bat, or wasn’t trying. All of those opinions flew in the face of the fact that Thomas’ results simply hadn’t matched his skills for a few weeks, which happens all the time in baseball. Given a larger sample, we can now state with confidence that jumping to the conclusion that Thomas was finished was obviously incorrect.
Frank Thomas can still hit a baseball, and that’s not any more true today than it was a month ago. Teams that let themselves be deceived by three weeks worth of results missed out on a solid player because they failed to grasp the power of regression to the mean.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I’m almost positive that Thomas’ release had more to do with contract concerns and his attitude at being given a reduced role while he was struggling than the front office not being able to identify the fact that the man still had baseball in him – though he sure did look terrible at times before his release.
Too bad the M’s still have Vidro at DH 🙂
J.P. Ricciardi is a Billy Beane disciple. I’m curious if he knew a thing or two about BABIP? Maybe he did and just ignored it.
I’m just speculating here, but Gibbons seems to be a “play the hot hand” kind of manager (just google “Blue Jays Gibbons Hot Hand”), which would lead him to want to bench Thomas while he was “struggling” (aka unlucky on BIP). Given that Thomas clearly and vocally didn’t take well to that (understandably, given what seemed likely then and is confirmed now), and combined with Gibbons’ reputation as being less than, uh, soothing with his players, Riccardi may have had no choice, regardless of what BABIP was telling him. Sometimes other considerations trump statistical truths, for better or worse.
There is no doubt that Thomas was released to keep his 2009 option from vesting. The fact that Thomas was struggling was a convenient excuse for them to jettison him. It wasn’t a we’re-a-better-team-without-him kind of decision.
It’s all that good chemistry in Oakland. 🙂
So you’re saying Riccardi with Thomas is more clueful/fiscally responsible than Bavasi is with Vidro.