Billy Butler Stole Second Base: A Reflection
Billy Butler’s nickname is Country Breakfast. You know that — you’ve known that for years — but at this point, the connection’s automatic, and you probably don’t really think about it. This time, think about it. I don’t actually know why he’s nicknamed Country Breakfast, but it seems to be ever so fitting. If you think about whatever a country breakfast is, and if you think about the people likely to be eating it, you imagine a guy who looks like Billy Butler, a guy who doesn’t have plans to be active the rest of the day. Billy Butler’s all gravy and pig with a .300 average, and that’s an easy sort of player to fall in love with as long as you’ve got pinch-runners at the ready.
Billy Butler is slow. Not just relatively slow, among professional athletes — he is a slow man, when he’s running. The good news is he’s not supposed to be fast. The bad news is he’s slow. Since 2009, Butler’s posted six of the 80 worst baserunning seasons in baseball. This year he was on first base for 31 singles, and one time did he make it to third. About 10% of the time he took an extra base, against a league average of 40%. Current Fan Scouting Report results give Butler a 17/100 in sprint speed. This is consistent with his 18 from previous years. Jesus Montero also received a sprint rating of 18, and the Mariners hired a man to spend the offseason teaching him how to move his legs and arms. According to you guys, Billy Butler runs as fast as a player who didn’t know how to run. I could go on longer than this, but, this paragraph is your background.
And so on Sunday, in Game 3 of the ALDS, Billy Butler stole second base in the playoffs. It wasn’t the play that did the Angels in — truthfully, it wasn’t a play that really mattered — but it spoke to the confidence with which the Royals were plowing forward. The man on the mound, by the way, was a lefty.
In the bottom of the first inning, Butler scored from first on Alex Gordon’s two-out double. The play at the plate was close, but Butler got in safe, and from contact to slide, Butler took about 11.3 seconds. I watched a similar double from August 19 where Norichika Aoki scored from first, and while that play at home was also close, Aoki got around in 10.4 seconds. This is one of those times where it’s hard to know whether to be overwhelmed or underwhelmed, since a difference of not even a second doesn’t feel very large, but when you’re talking about plays that take 10-11 seconds, it’s a big gap. How much slower is Billy Butler than Norichika Aoki? That much slower, more or less. About a second slower, on plays that take several seconds.
Skip ahead to the bottom of the third. Eric Hosmer homered to make the score 5-1. With one down, Butler then walked against Hector Santiago, and Alex Gordon stepped in. Flashed the broadcast earlier in the inning:
Santiago’s a lefty who’s developed a heck of a pick-off move. The Royals are willing to run against lefties — they ran against Jon Lester — but that’s a task for Jarrod Dyson or Alcides Escobar or whoever. It’s not a task for Billy Butler, which is precisely why Butler seized the opportunity.
As Santiago threw a first-pitch strike to Gordon, Butler got his read. As Santiago threw a second-pitch strike to Gordon, Butler was on the go.
The pitch was a fastball. Butler was safe. Erick Aybar was on his back. Score one for the element of surprise.
How does a play like this even develop? You already know the answer, but stealing bases is about a lot more than pure footspeed. Jarrod Dyson runs like the dickens, but a week ago, his situational awareness allowed him to steal third when everyone knew he might run. Billy Butler runs like Charles Dickens, but on Sunday, his situational awareness allowed him to steal second when nobody thought he might run.
A different angle reveals why Butler ran with such confidence:
While Santiago could look right at him from the set position, Butler knew he wasn’t being held on by Albert Pujols, so he could take as aggressive a lead as he wanted. There was basically no risk of a pick-off attempt, and Butler waited a pitch to see if Santiago might have any tricks up his sleeve. From there, Butler was off, as he simply inched toward second, then turned and ran. He could go on first move, and he could get a quicker first step because he didn’t have to burst out from the ordinary lead position. Billy Butler is slow, but the Angels’ deliberate inattention afforded him a head start.
Also working to Butler’s benefit: Chris Iannetta wasn’t exactly thinking about the possibility of a steal. Every catcher always has to be aware of the chance, but Iannetta was a lot less concerned than he would’ve been with someone else on first, and you have to assume that played some role in how things played out. Iannetta’s throw one-hopped Aybar, slowing the ball down and making it a lot harder to catch. With an accurate throw, perhaps Butler’s out, but part of the gamble is that the catcher might make a mistake, out of being surprised.
My unofficial tallies: Butler got from lead to second base in about 3.6 seconds. Santiago was 1.67 seconds to home, and Iannetta was 2.1 seconds to second base. Santiago was slow to the plate, because he was unconcerned. Iannetta had a bad pop time, in large part because of the mediocre throw. In this way, stolen bases are just math. J.J. Cooper wrote that a speedy runner can get from lead to second base in 3.25 seconds. Butler was 11% slower than that, even with his aggressive lead, but pitchers and catchers don’t treat every runner the same, so the math doesn’t always work out the same. It’s kind of unfair; Billy Hamilton has to steal against opponents who know he’s going to steal. Billy Butler gets to steal against opponents who don’t even look at him. But, I suppose Ben Revere gets pitched differently than Yasiel Puig. Sometimes Revere might turn on that fastball down the middle.
Billy Butler stole second base in the playoffs, because the math was in his favor. The math was in his favor because the Angels never imagined that Butler might try to gun it. If Butler were to try this more often, he wouldn’t have that same element of surprise, so it wouldn’t be as good a gamble, but Butler picked one spot and sent the crowd into a frenzy. As for Hector Santiago and the Angels? All they could do was try not to get burned twice.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
This is why Billy Butler’s nickname is “Country Breakfast” for those who were wondering.
http://www.pinetarpress.com/the-pinetarpress-true-story-of-countrybreakfast-by-ross-martin-2/
For those of you who are interested (probably most of you), but who also don’t already know (probably few of you), here is a link to Baseball Reference’s Baseball Player Nickname Database:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/baseball-player-nicknames.shtml
Bronson Arroyo is Saturn Nuts. I didn’t know that. I also didn’t know how important that information was going to be to me once I learned it.
Curt Schilling, on Arroyo’s start in the 2004 ALDS:
“got a team fighting for it’s life against a kid making his first ever post season start, FWIW I take the kid Friday night, he’s got nuts the size of Saturn”
http://sonsofsamhorn.yuku.com/topic/5908/10-07-07-Game-Three-of-the-Real-Season#.VDQI4mddV1Y
Who knew Coors Light could inspire anything. And what Missouri boy would admit do drinking that crap?
Thanks for the back story.
Country Breakfast ate his Wheaties that morning.
“Dyson runs like the dickens… Butler runs like Charles Dickens.”
What if Charles Dickens happened to be a world class sprinter in his era?
So Butler was successful because he picked the perfect moment to go and Santiago was slow to the plate… in other words, it was the best of times, and it was the worst of times.
.. I regret nothing.
2014 was the season where Billy Butler some a base and Ben Revere hit a home run.
It’s real. It happened.
For what it’s worth, Charles Dickens was an avid long-distance walker and reportedly a very fast one, walking about 12 miles a day at a 4-5 MPH clip (see link below). I don’t know how good of a sprinter he would have been, but I would feel comfortable betting on him to beat Billy Butler in a foot race.
http://lukemckernan.com/2013/06/09/walking-with-charles-dickens/
“So much of my travelling is done on foot, that if I cherished betting propensities, I should probably be found registered in sporting newspapers under some such title as the Elastic Novice, challenging all eleven stone mankind to competition in walking. My last special feat was turning out of bed at two, after a hard day, pedestrian and otherwise, and walking thirty miles into the country to breakfast.”
I think he means that Billy Butler runs like modern day Charles Dickens runs. Though I still might bet on zombie Dickens to be competitive.
For what it’s worth, Billy Butler happens to weigh the same as 240 pounds of gold. At the current trading price of $1,206.44 per ounce, that’s worth $4,632,729.60. His 2014 contract was worth $8 million. Therefore, he was underpaid.
*I meant to say overpaid. My message would have made sense if I had gotten it correct, but it probably didn’t solely because I switched the word ‘over’ with ‘under.’
Like Jeff said, so much of baseball is just math.
4-5mph walking is not fast. Maybe for the average american but for racewalkers or people that have a normal BMI, it isn’t.
The best 5k race walking time in the US is roughly 6:10/mile, almost 10mph.
4-5 mph walking is quite fast, maybe not for racewalkers, but for anyone else anywhere with a normal BMI.
Over thirty miles it’s pretty fast. And was probably faster in Dickens’ era, when, if his novels are to be believed, people had not yet invented shoes.
Charles “Country Breakfast” Dickens. Sometimes reading the comments is so worthwhile.
Give an assist to Rusty Kuntz, the 1B coach with the stop watch. He could see where Pujols was, the eyes in the back of Big Bill’s head and he knew how long it took the pitcher to get home plus the catcher’s pop times.
It’s impressive that you talked about Rusty Kuntz without resorting to a joke at any point.
And Pujols…
The only “poo” on this play would be in Aybar’s pants, seeing Butler arriving full speed with that late slide.
Before I got to your comment, Paul, I read jimfetterolf’s comment two or three times searching for the Kuntz/Pujols punchline.
Billy Butler stealing second also serves as a good microcosm of the whole series from the Angels’ perspective.
Let me soundtrack that GIF of Butler running for you.
http://www.sounddogs.com/previews/25/mp3/385277_SOUNDDOGS__ca.mp3
This sort of thing is nothing new. Ernie Lombardi, who would probably rank somewhere in the low single digits on the Sprint Score, would get bunt singles from time to time simply because no one expected him to do so. Doesn’t make it any less awesome though. You need to keep the defense honest somehow, something many dead pull hitters facing the shift are learning the hard way this year.
If you watch the replay, I believe Butler created a head wind that knocked over Aybar and forced the throw off course.
Count me as one of the ignorant masses as I was not previously aware (or had forgotten) about Country Breakfast as Butler’s nickname.