Billy Butler Stole Second Base: A Reflection

Billy Butler’s nickname is Country Breakfast. You know that — you’ve known that for years — but at this point, the connection’s automatic, and you probably don’t really think about it. This time, think about it. I don’t actually know why he’s nicknamed Country Breakfast, but it seems to be ever so fitting. If you think about whatever a country breakfast is, and if you think about the people likely to be eating it, you imagine a guy who looks like Billy Butler, a guy who doesn’t have plans to be active the rest of the day. Billy Butler’s all gravy and pig with a .300 average, and that’s an easy sort of player to fall in love with as long as you’ve got pinch-runners at the ready.

Billy Butler is slow. Not just relatively slow, among professional athletes — he is a slow man, when he’s running. The good news is he’s not supposed to be fast. The bad news is he’s slow. Since 2009, Butler’s posted six of the 80 worst baserunning seasons in baseball. This year he was on first base for 31 singles, and one time did he make it to third. About 10% of the time he took an extra base, against a league average of 40%. Current Fan Scouting Report results give Butler a 17/100 in sprint speed. This is consistent with his 18 from previous years. Jesus Montero also received a sprint rating of 18, and the Mariners hired a man to spend the offseason teaching him how to move his legs and arms. According to you guys, Billy Butler runs as fast as a player who didn’t know how to run. I could go on longer than this, but, this paragraph is your background.

And so on Sunday, in Game 3 of the ALDS, Billy Butler stole second base in the playoffs. It wasn’t the play that did the Angels in — truthfully, it wasn’t a play that really mattered — but it spoke to the confidence with which the Royals were plowing forward. The man on the mound, by the way, was a lefty.

In the bottom of the first inning, Butler scored from first on Alex Gordon’s two-out double. The play at the plate was close, but Butler got in safe, and from contact to slide, Butler took about 11.3 seconds. I watched a similar double from August 19 where Norichika Aoki scored from first, and while that play at home was also close, Aoki got around in 10.4 seconds. This is one of those times where it’s hard to know whether to be overwhelmed or underwhelmed, since a difference of not even a second doesn’t feel very large, but when you’re talking about plays that take 10-11 seconds, it’s a big gap. How much slower is Billy Butler than Norichika Aoki? That much slower, more or less. About a second slower, on plays that take several seconds.

Skip ahead to the bottom of the third. Eric Hosmer homered to make the score 5-1. With one down, Butler then walked against Hector Santiago, and Alex Gordon stepped in. Flashed the broadcast earlier in the inning:

Santiago’s a lefty who’s developed a heck of a pick-off move. The Royals are willing to run against lefties — they ran against Jon Lester — but that’s a task for Jarrod Dyson or Alcides Escobar or whoever. It’s not a task for Billy Butler, which is precisely why Butler seized the opportunity.

As Santiago threw a first-pitch strike to Gordon, Butler got his read. As Santiago threw a second-pitch strike to Gordon, Butler was on the go.

The pitch was a fastball. Butler was safe. Erick Aybar was on his back. Score one for the element of surprise.

How does a play like this even develop? You already know the answer, but stealing bases is about a lot more than pure footspeed. Jarrod Dyson runs like the dickens, but a week ago, his situational awareness allowed him to steal third when everyone knew he might run. Billy Butler runs like Charles Dickens, but on Sunday, his situational awareness allowed him to steal second when nobody thought he might run.

A different angle reveals why Butler ran with such confidence:

While Santiago could look right at him from the set position, Butler knew he wasn’t being held on by Albert Pujols, so he could take as aggressive a lead as he wanted. There was basically no risk of a pick-off attempt, and Butler waited a pitch to see if Santiago might have any tricks up his sleeve. From there, Butler was off, as he simply inched toward second, then turned and ran. He could go on first move, and he could get a quicker first step because he didn’t have to burst out from the ordinary lead position. Billy Butler is slow, but the Angels’ deliberate inattention afforded him a head start.

Also working to Butler’s benefit: Chris Iannetta wasn’t exactly thinking about the possibility of a steal. Every catcher always has to be aware of the chance, but Iannetta was a lot less concerned than he would’ve been with someone else on first, and you have to assume that played some role in how things played out. Iannetta’s throw one-hopped Aybar, slowing the ball down and making it a lot harder to catch. With an accurate throw, perhaps Butler’s out, but part of the gamble is that the catcher might make a mistake, out of being surprised.

My unofficial tallies: Butler got from lead to second base in about 3.6 seconds. Santiago was 1.67 seconds to home, and Iannetta was 2.1 seconds to second base. Santiago was slow to the plate, because he was unconcerned. Iannetta had a bad pop time, in large part because of the mediocre throw. In this way, stolen bases are just math. J.J. Cooper wrote that a speedy runner can get from lead to second base in 3.25 seconds. Butler was 11% slower than that, even with his aggressive lead, but pitchers and catchers don’t treat every runner the same, so the math doesn’t always work out the same. It’s kind of unfair; Billy Hamilton has to steal against opponents who know he’s going to steal. Billy Butler gets to steal against opponents who don’t even look at him. But, I suppose Ben Revere gets pitched differently than Yasiel Puig. Sometimes Revere might turn on that fastball down the middle.

Billy Butler stole second base in the playoffs, because the math was in his favor. The math was in his favor because the Angels never imagined that Butler might try to gun it. If Butler were to try this more often, he wouldn’t have that same element of surprise, so it wouldn’t be as good a gamble, but Butler picked one spot and sent the crowd into a frenzy. As for Hector Santiago and the Angels? All they could do was try not to get burned twice.