Blue Jays Sign José Berríos to Reasonable, Necessary Extension

A busy early offseason continued apace on Tuesday, with the Blue Jays coming to terms with pitcher José Berríos on a seven-year deal worth up to $131 million, pending the usual physical. The new pact buys out the last year of his arbitration eligibility and includes limited trade protection and an opt-out clause that the former Twins ace can exercise after the 2026 season.

It would be hard to characterize this one as a major surprise. The players who went to Minnesota in return for Berríos, Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, were ranked here as the second- and third-best prospects in Toronto’s system, respectively. To get a richer haul at the deadline, you had to trade literally Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. It’s not the type of move you make if you want the pitcher to walk in 14 months with only a possible draft compensation pick in exchange.

Berríos hasn’t developed into a superstar, but he’s been consistently in that 110–120 ERA+, borderline-ace territory since being promoted to Minnesota for good in early 2017. And he has one thing that many other star pitchers lack: a nearly flawless record of avoiding injury; as a major leaguer, he hasn’t made an appearance on the Injured List or missed a single start due to injury. The most he’s been nicked up was being pulled from a start because of a blister in 2019 and some abdominal tightness this September. It’s not just luck; injury time is a useful predictor of future injury time.

At the time of the trade, Toronto’s rotation ranked 19th in baseball in total WAR, nearly a win behind the Royals at 18. The starting pitching was coming around with the emergence of Alek Manoah in June, but he missed some time with a back contusion stemming from a fall in the dugout, and Nate Pearson’s groin problems were enough to keep him from serving as a reinforcement down the stretch. In a packed wild-card race with the Jays 4 1/2 games back at the trade deadline, Berríos provided an opportunity for a significant upgrade in the rotation, and he was as good as advertised, putting up a 3.58 ERA and a 3.28 FIP over 12 starts and throwing seven consecutive quality starts to finish his 2021 campaign.

It’s Berríos’ health record that likely made the Jays amenable to signing him to a seven-year deal — a very long one for a pitcher, no matter how good. Injury is the big worry here, with ZiPS seeing little attrition in his performance. For most pitchers, I’d be skeptical about the chances that an opt-out five years away is a high risk to be exercised, but if Berríos meets or exceeds his projections, it’ll be an interesting question for him. But that decision is five years away, and the present is pressing. Based on only players currently signed, our depth charts have Toronto ranked sixth in the league. This isn’t one of the Central divisions; the cost to play is high, and long-term contention requires either a Scrooge McDuck-esque vault of gold coins or an unstoppable prospect development Leviathan.

For seven years of a very good starting pitcher who possibly still has upside remaining, $131 million is a fair deal. ZiPS projected a $12.6 million arbitration award for Berríos in 2022, and at $7.2 million per win — the projected salary per ZiPS WAR has slumped in recent winters — and 3% yearly growth of that figure, it would have suggested a $146 million deal over seven years. That’s without an opt-out clause, which is basically two player options that have to be exercised simultaneously, bringing that $131 million valuation a good chunk of the way closer to what he actually got.

Don’t be surprised to see more contracts like this close very quickly over the next two weeks. The collective bargaining agreement between players and owners expires on December 1, leaving open the possibility of a lockout if owners especially feel that playing hardball is in their interest. While the effect on players who are actually free agents is more significant, for players like Berríos with only a year left before free agency, that can also cause a problem. The best time for a deal would be before the start of the 2022 season; negotiating during the season can be a bit of an unwelcome distraction, and avoiding it can result in hitting free agency even when there’s a belief that the player will re-sign with the team in the end (see Freddie Freeman). If a lockout happens, the Jays could be in a position where they’re trying to do all their offseason moves in a short window in the spring, which is hardly an environment conducive to hashing out terms with Berríos.

For Berríos, a quick deal has a lot of value as well. You never know what the eventual CBA will bring, but he’ll already have his deal signed in permanent ink. And with the risk of Sinclair’s stable of regional sports networks melting down, which is a big deal for baseball’s revenue with those networks carrying the games of 14 teams, there could be a lot less money available in free agency than expected. Whatever happens there, Berríos has his deal.

This is a good deal for both parties. Toronto has another starting pitcher written in for the foreseeable future, and Berríos will finally get to show off his talents more regularly against the league’s most popular teams. Thumbs up here.