Brandon Morrow’s Gem
The ninth inning held two outs as Evan Longoria stepped back into the box for the 1-1 pitch. He would swing, connect, and run towards first as the ball rolled just beyond Aaron Hill’s grasp. As his foot planted on first base he ended Brandon Morrow’s bid at a no hitter. The ball only exceeded Hill’s range because he had to play over with a runner on first who reached on a walk.
In reality, calling this a “bid” at a no hitter does Morrow no respect and the performance on justice. For all intent and purposes, Morrow threw as well as any pitcher who did record a no hitter or perfect game this season. He completed the game, struck out 17 Rays, and walked only two. Nine of the 12 balls in play were of the fly ball variety, including a few warning track flyouts, but the Rays never seriously threatened until the ninth inning.
Not only did Longoria’s single end the no hitter, but it too ended the celebration of a no hitter and helped to spark a debate that will ignore Morrow’s performance.
A lot of talk will go towards his pitch count, which ended at 137. Cito Gaston is retiring at season’s end and, yeah, maybe this plays out differently if that were not the case. Or perhaps it doesn’t. There is no way of knowing and attempting to read into motives in scenarios like this is fruitless. Morrow did throw a lot of pitches, but he also breezed through most of the day. 71% of his pitches went for strikes and his slider was a weapon with a fatality rate high enough that it could be classified as a threat to civilization.
Keep in mind that Morrow pitched nine innings with only four baserunners and eight came with two total. The ninth inning will be a point of contention as he allowed a walk and a single. There’s a difference between what Edwin Jackson did earlier this summer – allowing eight walks – and what Morrow did today. The high count is not a manifestation of long counts but rather the ridiculous strikeout total. To rack up 17 means making a minimum – a minimum – of 51 pitches; to throw a complete game shutout while striking out 17 means throwing at least 61 pitches. Factor in two walks and that number bloats to 69. Add in the baserunner who reached via error and that’s 70; about half the total when assuming each of the outs will take only one pitch to secure and that each strikeout and walk will take the minimum.
Nobody knows how this will affect Morrow heading forward. Not even Morrow himself. The Jays and Gaston have been careful with him, all things considered, over the season. He’s topped 100 pitches in only eight of his 21 starts entering today and only topped 110 on two separate occasions, including an eight inning gem against the St. Louis Cardinals and days later a six inning grinder versus the New York Yankees. Yes, he has a history of durability issues that included his diabetes. And yes, in the long run, maybe this will be looked upon as a snowball to a proverbial injury avalanche. But far too often it seems we find ourselves outraged with these outings instead of simply enjoying the dominance while keeping the potential byproducts in mind.
It is possible to tip your cap to Morrow on the outing while still hoping he’ll be able to tip his tomorrow. It’s also possible to react to pitch counts that extend beyond 100, beyond 110, beyond 125 without being appalled. We don’t know the exact degree of damage those extra pitches did. Honestly, are we even sure where the baseline should be placed to account for what is and what isn’t an extra pitch?
The aforementioned Jackson threw 149 pitches in his no hitter. His FIP up to (and including that game) was right around 4.10. Since then his FIP is roughly 4.30. Pointing to him and saying, “See! See! Nothing to it.” would constitute as confirmation bias and selection bias. So too would be pointing to Morrow if he struggles in his next start or two. Our level of knowledge about the subject and our level of outrage are on different levels right now and unfortunately, the outcries have not lead to a seesaw effect where we are more enthused and interested than ever to learn more and more about pitch workloads.
All told. I probably would have removed Morrow following the hit. That Gaston let him make a few more pitches may or may not be as horrific as the instant reaction would lead you to believe. We just don’t know, and that’s half the problem.
And with this start, he will have compiled more WAR than the #6 org’s own Brandon League all year.
It’s pretty obvious you need to learn to read. The org. ratings were designed to see who will win in the future. When the Mariners get injured Anthony Rendon they will be set up forever. They still have a one year timeframe to win 2 WS to prove they are a top franchise. #4 Cleveland will probably win more though.
What’s amazing is that people still keep trying to explain “the criteria”.
Obviously, the folks that keep bringing up “#6Org” are doing it as a jab.
Still, is their ANY criteria that ranks SEA as a top 6 baseball organization, now, or within the next 5 years?
I no longer comment on those that bring up “#6Org”, but ZI sure will on those that retort “The criteria, the criteria” as justification.
Leaving him in the game was great. it was his game to finish. Cito gave him a quick breather and the confidence to finish it off. The extra few pitches needed to complete the game are nothing when considering how important it is for a young pitcher to learn how to deliver the knockout blow.
LOL beautiful. Just came on here to make sure somebody brought up this point. The BRILLIANT Jack Z traded a potential Ace starter with a few warts for a middling reliever with a few warts who is half a decade older… Now thats how winning organizations are built people!
Morrow pitched a 100-rating game, the first since Johnson’s CG, and the only thing you seem to be covering is his pitch count? Comon dude.
Maybe talk about how dominant his slider and fastball were today, or how about the velocity in the 9th inning.
The Jays have an off day on Monday, and have the pitching depth to skip Morrow’s next start (like they did two weeks ago). The pitch count is not a concern for me.
Agree with all of the above. As a Jays fan, I’m more interested in what questions remain about Morrow’s future. What holes are left in his game? What changes have the Jays made that fixed the walk rate? Can he now be considered a legit ace? How many more years until Morrow takes out a full page ad, thanking the city and explaining his move to a contender?
What, calling his slider a weapon with a fatality rate high enough to threaten a civilization is genuflecting to it enough?
I agree with Josh. You talked about hoping everyone would enjoy the moment and focus on his pitching instead of the pitch count, and then the rest of the article was spent not talking about Morrow’s pitching, but rather the pitch count.
What about Morrow and his future? At least the rest of the season. What do you expect? I’ve always thought that Morrow was a lot like Latos, not in pitching styles or anything, but in career development. Latos had his coming out party just a few months ago. I picked up Latos when his Yahoo ownership was in the 40% range. I’ve always been high on Morrow, and picked him up recently. Is this Morrow’s coming out party, like latos had a few months ago?
Is this dominance something we can expect from Morrow?
BTW, i think way too much is made of pitch counts. With all due respect, 1 pitch doesn’t equal another pitch. In this new age of baseball, too much value is given to things like pitch counts or capped innings, etc.
I have heard it said that it is not the total pitches, or the number of pitches above 100 or your “magic number” that does the damage..it is pitches when the pitcher is alredy fatigued. That is much more of a scouting deal than a saber-numbers deal, but watch his 9th inning (I didn’t get to actually) — would you say he was pitching that dangerously tired?
I watched the game. During the 6th inning he looked as if the game had just began, throwing fast balls and sliders and punching out guys without remorse. He was sweating a little during the 9th but didn’t look exhausted. He was throwing with ease and the velo was there, although I kept waiting for the slider to punch out Longoria. The walk to Zobrist’s seemed to me as if it was intentional, he had hit one of those warning track shots, I believe during the 6th. If he doesn’t walk Zobrist the hit doesn’t get by Hill, but if he doesn’t walk Zobrist either the no hitter is gone or its over.
Anyhow, this was one of those beautiful games that don’t take too long and make you root for the pitcher (I’m more of a Ray’s person myself) more than for the teams.
It will definitely be interesting to watch how Morrow holds up for the rest of the year.
Brandon Morrow is no stranger to handling more than he’s expected to handle. It goes back as far to even his first start in the majors (after spending his early days working out of the bullpen) when he almost no-hits the Yankees. He wound up losing that no-hitter in the 8th inning. It’s always a tricky situation when the pitcher in question is going after history, so as you might expect, the staff is basically caught between a rock in a hard place.
I haven’t heard Morrow having any fatigue/workload related injuries so I would imagine that he should be fine going forward. Still, it’s easy to forget that this will be his first full season as a Major League starter.
Relax, he was responding to what a lot of people on twitter was talking about. I thought it was a great article.
Where can we see the info on pitch type and swing rates? I remember FG’s article on Romero’s 8 1/3’s of no hit ball and the insane swing and miss rate, and Morrow seemed to get a ridiculous number of swing and misses.
“Keep in mind that Morrow pitched nine innings with only four baserunners and eight came with two total.”
I had to read that sentence about five times and then ponder on it for a bit to unravel the meaning. Let’s go with, “Keep in mind that Morrow pitched nine innings with only four baserunners, and allowed only two to reach through the first eight innings.”
(I think is what you’re getting at?)
/fixed/
Being 8 games out of the playoff picture, Toronto can always afford to rest him an extra day or two, skip his start alltogether, or honestly put him in the bullpen for the rest of the year to limit his innings. There’s no chance you take a guy out when he’s destroying hitters the way he did in an important 1-0 game. I was actually refreshed to see Cito make that call – it takes some balls these days.
Didn’t Jack Z, the genius, trade Morrow for a middle reliever?
Oh my God!!! You’re absolutely correct! I demand infallibility for praise.
Of course if Johermyn Chavez ends up being a decent major leaguer I’m sure you’ll admit your mistake.
It’s dumber in hindsight than it was at the time, but it was still dumb at the time. If that makes sense. I don’t think comments like that would come up if Jack Z didn’t get SO much praise here.
But the thing is, he really doesn’t (since the season began). The meme still pops up because we (collectively) continue to flog that dead horse.
So disingenuous. The move was lauded and people laughed at the idea that Morrow would ever be a good starter.
I find that sentence hilarious. “Since the season began”.
Mike, you’re simply incorrect. The deal was criticized more than it was lauded, even here.
Don how dare you let simple facts get in the way of a overcooked, overplayed, not-at-all-funny-and-never-particularly-funny-to-begin-with dig.
How DARE you sir.
As a baseball fan, I was praying that Gaston would leave him in. The last thing you want is to place a true gem like that in the hands of a guy like Kevin Gregg.
Miserable Mariners with a brain dead trade. This is what happens when your organization is a consistent loser, and the front office begins to sniff postseason. They make a dumb trade to get short term relief help because they don’t want to deal with the bumps in the road that goes along with committing to a young starting pitcher.
Just a terrible trade when it was made and today highlights how moronic that decision was by Jack Zdurenciek, who I normally support.
I’m happy for Brandon. He was treated like garbage by my second rate organization for multiple seasons. The Jays committed to rebuilding and allowing their young starters to stay in the rotation in 2010, even if they took some bumps and bruises. That’s an organization that gets it. Unlike my team who is constantly mortgaging the future whenever they get a sniff of possibly making postseason.
I’ll add Morrow to the list of Choo, Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Asdrubal Cabrera, etc.. as guys the M’s just tossed aside when they foolishly thought they were contenders.
They did also get Johermyn Chavez, who happens to be tearing up high A ball right now–for what that is worth.
his home-road splits(his home park is incredibly hitter friendly) aren’t that impressive and he also plays in the most hitter friendly league in the history of baseball
Dear #6org:
Regarding:
“he also plays in the most hitter friendly league in the history of baseball”
For your amusement, you might want to look up the West Texas-New Mexico league, which operated from 1937 through 1955 with three years off during World War II.
Here’s some league averages, quoted from an old Hardball Times article (Steve Treder 2004). The Baseball-Ref numbers appear to be incomplete, but I’m no expert in using that data base.
YEAR LEAGUE BA RUNS/GAME
1937 .292 7.91
1938 .273 7.08
1939 .288 6.66
1940 .294 7.09
1941 .270 5.53
1942 .282 6.72
1946 .288 6.75
1947 .304 7.58
1948 .310 8.16
1949 .296 6.76
1950 .306 7.22
1951 .292 6.36
1952 .300 6.22
1953 .299 7.23
1954 .292 6.48
1955 .294 6.53
Those numbers in the right hand column are average number of runs per game for each team, not combined runs for both teams.
A guy named Bob Crues drove in 254 runs in less than 150 games in one of those years.
..the problem with Morrow was that he wasn’t Tim Lincecumm, who pitched in the Mariners’ backyard during his college years and came out in the same draft
You mean, all those trades Bill Bavasi made?
Puh-leeze!
RJ,
I think the main concern many of us pitch count zealots have is that it was unnecessary to keep him in after the hit from Longoria. To maintain as various observers have, that Morrow “pitched like a man” due in part to finishing what he started is to look at the event as some sort of macho exercise. Giving into emotional reactions is the exact opposite of what most of us seek to do by analyzing the results of baseball games through as objective a lens as we can find. I’ll happily stipulate, my reaction to 137 pitchers was emotional as well. Here’s what I tweeted as he pitched to Johnson:
“Attention #BrandonMorrow owners, this is a sell high notice. #135andcounting”
Laden with snark and emotion and dedicated to the proposition that not all pitches (or pitchers for that matter) are created equal. Zach notes that he was happy that Cito left him in. I was flabbergasted. A pitcher with 129 pitches thrown is not particularly fresh, and from what some observers have said, his ninth inning was less effective based on his comportment on the mound as well as results than prior innings.
This is logical and to be expected. Pitching, as well we all know, taxes a person. Josh Johnson asked out Saturday at 99 pitches, because he knew he was done. Leo Nunez blew the game. Johnson did the right thing. Stuff happens.
Allow me to say, I am not in favor of arbitrary guidelines for pitch counts. Setting it 100 without considering the nature of the pitcher is foolish. But allowing a tired pitcher, near 130 pitches to go get an out in a 1-0 game, while two are on, is putting individual accomplishment ahead of winning the damn game. Just because both were achieved does not make the reasoning sound.
In my case, the worry was less Edwin Jackson, but rather Gil Meche. If the Jays allow him adequate time to recuperate, and protect his arm, my objections are dropped and my position becomes ambivalent to the higher pitch count. I think in general teams and fans have overreacted to pitch count watching and in fact, I’m extraordinarily curious how the Rangers prospects turn out with the system-wide emphasis Nolan Ryan has placed on let them go out and throw the ball.
Morrow’s accomplishment is the story. But yes, the beguiling temptation to search silver linings for clouds never seduces more than after outlier type performances.
I like this post a lot. There’s a pretty big difference between putting a guy out there at 110 pitches and at 130. And while its easy to say something like “you don’t know the effect of high pitch counts,” or something to the effect, its also to argue from ignorance. You could easily say the same thing about 150 pitches, or 170, as 120. There just isn’t anything out there very conclusive at any level. But its fairly logical that there is some level out there where you start to jepordize the future health of the pitcher, and you may never know when this level is reached until after the fact.
I ran 1/2 an iron man once, was very healthy before hand, very well trained, ran many shorter triathlons before as well, but by the end of the race my knees where just a wreck with something as simple as tendonitis. I’ve really never recoved. Walking a mile or just standing for long peroids of time can now trigger the swelling and pain (mall legs now have a whole new meaning to me!) and its been almost 5 years. I can bike, but running is just not possible.
I bring this up only to illustrate that we just don’t know what level of stress each individual can take before breaking, possibly forever. And to let someone throw 130 some pitches in a game that was really pretty damned meaningless for the Jays, who have roughly a 4% chance at the playoffs after the win, and when they Jays have some perfectly decent relievers, is just wreckless.
I suspect the only way we may ever know is too gather more genetic information for athletes. But the NIH isn’t exactly in the business in funding sport med studies.
I ran a 1/2 Ironman too … as my 1st triathlon (at 6’3 200). All I will say is “double leg cramps” on the first mile of the run. I finished just under 7 hours. Maybe again on my 40th … but never before.
It’s also possible that the game is a “experience builder”. How to handle and deal with pressure and fatigue and still get the job done.
This is the “rub” with no-hitters (or bids) … guys are often left out for longer than is desirable.
I am fine with either leaving him in or taking him out asfter the no hitter was broken up. What would have been interesting is the decision if Morrow walked the batter to load the bases.
Sounds like you never watched the game, dude. You can’t call a guy ‘tired’ just from looking at one stat.
…and as a Jays fan I can tell you that Brandon Morrow was our best chance to get a win last night after one inning, after 8 innings and after 8.2 innings and THAT is why he stayed in the game. Give Cito some f*cking respect, man.
+1
I know he had a lot of K’s, but no-hitters aren’t really that special anyway. Sorry.
I was hoping that this article would discuss how he did it. Which pitches were most effective, etc. Looking at the video, his slider was absolutely filthy. It and the fastball seemed to be jumping out of his hand, it was electrifying. A great performance. It reminds me of the time Nolasco struck out 16 braves in 8 innings, including 10 straight. It was that filthy.
As for the trade, Jack Zduriencik knew that Morrow still had the upside that got him drafted so high. He KNEW that Morrow could still end up having a fine major league career as a starting pitcher. He also knew that Brandon League had the potential to be a very solid 8th-inning man. Not so much upside as a reliever, but a very solid pitcher. And that is what League has been so far. I don’t think you can call this a loss for the mariners just because of what Morrow did today. League will be an essential part of next year’s team, which I expect to contend as Ackley, Smoak, and Pineda begin their promising careers.
But still, congratulations must be given to Brandon Morrow. He pitched a beautiful game today, and I hope he has a great career, even if it isn’t as a Mariner.
You expect the Ms to contend next year? Contend for what?
As a Jays fan I always felt for League. He came in throwing triple digit heat, but then got injured twice, having to change his approach both times. I still think he can become a dominant reliever in this league, especially after moving out of the AL East (although facing the Angels and Rangers is still a big deal). He just needs to get some sort of approach figured out, and he could work well with Aardsma if you guys keep him around.
but but Morrow has been a proven locker room cancer and an injury prone bum. Jack Z had to work his magic to get a mediocre reliever for a low ceiling no talent hack like Morrow
I can`t believe you guys still don`t see it, jack zduriencik being the godly baseball mind he is knew that Morrow was would throw a gem like this and that the high pitch count would put Morrow at a risk of injury. So instead of dealing with all this drama, Zdurniek sold high on Morrow for an elite pitcher in league and a universally acclaimed prospect in Chavez
unfortunately i don’t think this start is gonna change anything when it comes to the perception of the Morrow trade, too many Seattle fans are still under the impression that the Morrow for League swap was anything less than a disaster
hope a performance like this helps people understand how badly Jack Zduriencek got raped by Anthopolous
If Dave Cameron didn`t work for fangraphs wouldn`t you guys have come up with an article looking back at the Morrow for League trade, why are the Mariners horrific moves always ignored on this site
Dave criticized the trade at the time. He was not a fan either.
See the following posts at USS Mariner:
1) Choose Your Own Conclusion, wherein Dave speculates that the the most reasonable reading on the deal was as a followup part to the Cliff Lee deal.
2) My Philosophical Problem With The Deal, wherein Dave states that giving up on Morrow at this point even with the assumption of a perennially great League out of the pen undervalued starting pitching.
3) Dave’s 2010 Off-Season Plan, wherein Dave slots Morrow with enough value to feel one of the M’s gaping holes–shortstop, positioning Morrow to be flipped to Milwaukee for J.J. Hardy, not Brandon League.
Stop, you are asking people to look into the things they talk about. Being informed is far too much work, goddamnit.
People, generally, only research information to support an already-held opinion. That’s a double-edged sword. Folks seemingly do it regardless of the content/subject of the debate.
Dave Cameron does not speak for all M’s fans. A lot of us hated this deal when it was made. Total fleecing by the Jays GM.
Don’t misrepresent Dave. He did not applaud the trade. There is significant dissonance in the M’s blogosphere regarding the deal.
Graham MacAree (the man behind tRA), at the time contributing to Lookout Landing, put the deal down thus: “Sounds like it’s Morrow for League + Jomerhyn Chavez, which sucks.”
Jeff Nye, a mod at USSM, still defends the deal. There was frustration with Morrow for sure. But it’s not like everyone gave up on him. Some applauded, some criticized–both USSM and LL criticized the deal, then followed up with a proper reevaluation of the benefit of having League in the pen.
What if Morrow was still walking 5+ batters per 9 this year? What if he still couldn’t throw his pitches for strikes. It wasn’t a great trade just based on the upside of the players being swapped, but it wasn’t as if Morrow had shown a lot of promise at the major league level.
There is a reason that Brandon League was the best the Ms could get for Morrow.
Congrats to the Jays for making his stuff work, but don’t act like this was a sure thing.
“There is a reason that Brandon League was the best the Ms could get for Morrow. Congrats to the Jays for making his stuff work, but don’t act like this was a sure thing.”
Amen and amen. A lot of people still thought Morrow had the ceiling to be something special if he could ‘harness his stuff’, but that was by no means assured. It’s so incredibly easy to evaluate trades in hindsight!
Some of us evaluated the trade in context and still called it bad. Hell, a good chunk of the blogosphere did.
What did the Jays coaching do that the M’s coaching couldn’t?
To me, that’s the far greater question.
This is one of the most poorly written articles I have ever read. I had to re-read it several times to understand exactly what the author was trying to relate. I understand it was done on a short timeline, but please get an editor to proofread your articles before publishing them.
Finally, the sentence:
“Nobody knows how this will affect Morrow heading forward. Not even Morrow himself.”
…is particularly troublesome. How do you know that Morrow doesn’t know how this game will affect him? Did you interview him? Maybe he got home and said, “oh crap, I can’t feel my arm anymore” and thus knows exactly how this game will affect him going forward.
I understand your frustration regarding grammar, but let’s not get bogged down in technicalities. He was attempting to make an important point via exaggeration, and you took it literally. You may technically be correct, but it is such a trivial matter that…well, it shouldn’t even warrant 1 post, forget about 2!
Throwing 137 pitches ONE TIME will not be the deathknell of his career. The obsession over pitch counts is a bit overblown. Now, if he was regularly pushed that hard it’d likely have a cumulative effect but one long outing isn’t gonna kill him. Besides which, its more about high-stress innings than overall pitch count and he didn’t have any of those. His highest inning count was 22 and his lowest was 12.
“Throwing 137 pitches ONE TIME will not be the deathknell of his career. ”
But you don’t know that.
In that regard we don’t KNOW anything about a single player. They should just shut down the website.
We do not know how each individual reacts to stress and fatigue on the body. Morrow may have the mechanics and conditioning to throw 200 pitches every outing; we just don’t know. Pitch counts are about minimizing risk.
Will 137 kill Morrow’s arm? Maybe. We have the rest of the season and his career to find out. Maybe not. Maybe pitch 110 in his next long outing is one he grips just a little bit wrong and he tears a ligament in his elbow.
And they could limit his pitches to under 100 every game and he could still go on the DL…like Strasburg.
Freaking out over a guy throwing maybe 15 pitches over what most would consider a long outing (i.e. 120ish pitches) is absurd.
A lot of the pitches late were definitely more high stress, but what a great game overall. Shame he didn’t finish it with the no-no.
“To maintain as various observers have, that Morrow “pitched like a man” due in part to finishing what he started is to look at the event as some sort of macho exercise.”
Sports IS a macho exercise. That’s all it is.
Dude I’m hitting .812 this year!! Did you see the way I knocked over Granny to score that run?!? Dude.
Not sure where this comment is coming from?
You know the whole mantra of sports is “I’m better than you … and I can prove it”, right?
There’s a lot of machismo in sports, baseball less than others … but still very present.
We all realize this discussion (137 pitches in a complete game) 25 years ago would have been absurd right?
That may have been the best single game start in my lifetime since Kerry Wood’s infamous strikeout game.
Why is it infamous?
After the game, Wood murdered someone.
Because it was more than famous. Like El Guapo.
The only thing Kerry Wood ever killed was a case of Pabst … and he was a serial killer in that regard.
Kerry Wood went through cases of PBR? I no longer feel bad about his career being derailed – man should have shown better judgment.
I bet Wood is more of a Shiner Bock guy.
There’s a lot of talk among pitchers that pitches long innings with lots of baserunners is more difficult than simply pitching. Dude only allowed three baserunners, two of them in the last inning — he spent most of the game pitches with bases empty. It could be that these 137 pitches might be less stressful on the body than a 100 pitch, 5 inning outing where he’s scuffling. Simply put, there’s a LOT we don’t know about this topic, and it’s premature to speculate — Kerry Wood’s 20 SO game comes to mind (only 122 pitches???) , but a) he was only 20 and b) he was severely abused down the stretch that season, and STILL had a 16 SO game in his second to last start that year. One long game can be enough, but it’s not the same as multiple long games, particularly when scuffling.
All talk about pitch counts is pure speculation. There is no definitive proof that Kerry wood was harmed by the amount of pitches he threw at a young age. He also still carves out a nice living as a major leaguer, so his career was not ended. High school pitchers regularly rack up 100+ pitches and some flame out while others succeed. I would be curious to see a study of arm injuries in relief pitchers in comparison to starters. If both sets show similar injuries then pitch counts may not be as much a factor in arm injuries as is commonly believed.
Wood did mention in an interview that he started throwing his curve more across his body as he got K happy. That change in his mechanics apparently cause the curve to move more and to stress his arm more. I don’t know if curves stress the arm more than sliders, but I’m gonna guess they do.
That is more what I was getting at. Are most pitching injuries acute, in that a certain pitch or throw caused the injury, or are they chronic, ie overuse injuries. Seeing a relief pitcher require Tommy John surgery like a starter would could show that it is not a matter of how many pitches are thrown, but a mechanical or biological issue. At the end of the day throwing is not a normal motion for the human body so whether you throw 10 or 137 pitches you can cause an injury. At the end of the day I don’t know the answer with any more certainty then anyone else but it is something that is worth research going forward with the investments teams put into pitchers.
There’s a lot of folks on here talking about pitch counts that likely do not know much of the research about …
[1] The effects on the next 5 starts.
[2] The effects on arm health.
The problem with the high pitch count game is not that it was a bad game, but that pitchers generally to strike out fewer batters, give up more hits and runs in their next starts following the high pitch game. Now, in Morrow’s case he will most certainly give up more H & R and K fewer batters in his next starts, unless he just rattles off a 5-game stretch the likes of which history has never seen. What we should watch for is if he pitches poorly over the next 5 starts. The data represnts the “average” over a large sample size. What that means is that different pitchers responded differently and the AVERAGE was to pitch worse, that doesn’t mean EVERYONE pitched worse.
None of use have any way of knowing if it caused damage to his arm. He could get an arm injury 2 weeks from now and everyone would refer to this game, even though the injury could have been caused elsewhere.
Morrow threw 137 game pitches. He also threw 5 or 6 in between innings, so chalk up another 40 to 48 pitches, raising his total to 177-185. Then he threw another 60 in the bullpen, so now it’s 237-245, and another 40 throws to get loose, so now he’s up to 277+. I only bring this up because people often get caught up on numbers quite a bit without realizing just how much pitchers do throw.
But, the key is the phrase GAME pitches, more specifically “high stress” pitches or situations. Seeing how he rarely pitched with anyone on, how high stress could it be? Even in a 1-0 game?
I’m not sure I would have taken him out after the hit. I rest somewhere in between the “new school” that thinks any reliever is better than a tired starter, and the “old school” which says “It’s his game to win or lose, he earned the right.” (‘specially since TOR isn’t in a playoff hunt).
1st and 3rd, 2-out, 1-run lead, threw a 1-hitter, 16 K’s … and blew away the final hitter. Be certain, when Morrow looks back on his career, this will be the game that he remembers the most. This was a “Hey, I can be just as good as Verlander” game.
Pitch counts are a very important thing to watch, but should not be viewed in isolation (unless extreme). There is no need, IMO, to go knee-jerk on every situation, either for or against, pitch counts. Pitch counts are used to measure “abuse”, particularly in younger pitchers. There is no need for a P to throw 130+ repeatedly over numerous consecutive starts, but doing it once in a while will not be the death of the pitcher, provided efficient and proper mechanics. Poor mechanics + tired pitcher + high pitch counts = very high risk.
My guess is Morrow will be fine. He seems to be similar to Verlander in “profile”. Big tall long guy, hard thrower, responds well to workload.
Maybe he tossed 3 less warmup pitches per inning. That saves 27 right there…
I brought that up because there are *some* that are overly-concerned with it.
I talked to a minor league pitching coach that told the story of a MiLB pitcher who would always ask “how many have I thrown?”, and when he would approach his limit (in his mind) he would want to come out.
So, the pitching vcoach started keeping track of every throw the pitcher made during the day.
When the pitcher asked “How many?” and the coach responded “237”, the pitcher stopped asking. (Probably counted his own pitches).
I believe in STRICT pitch counts in ALL baseball that involves players 15 and under. The amount of “riding the ace” to make the coach look good, or to win some marginal district title, is absolutely ridiculous. Now, that there are strict pitch counts, the concern is about the ace pitcher that pitches for 3 different travel teams. Un-freakin-real.
Note: I don’t “count” the in between innings pitches because they are not thrown at GAME intensity. A pitcher could throw “spots” (65% intensity) as long as a basketball player could shoot free throws.
I thought this was a fantastic article. I for one was worried about the pitch count and I think this article and the comments helped me understand things better.
Seriously, RJ? You’re talking about pitch counts in a potential no-hitter? Gaston would have been foolish to pull Morrow in a 1-0 ballgame with the way he was pitching.
One start with thirty more pitches is not going to blow out an arm. Please pick an angle with significance. Your article started out so well until that point.
Looking at this thread I’m wondering if any of you A) watch any baseball besides MLB or B) have any historical context. The 100-pitch watermark is a recent invention due to the high amount of money invested in young pitchers. Many pitchers in other leagues go over the 100 pitch mark routinely. In the past it was much more common. A 137 pitch game is not. a. big. deal.
I believe Kerry Wood blamed the slurve on his arm troubles, not his pitch counts.
I think people overrate pitch counts, or don’t distinguish between pitches made cruising through a game and more stressful pitches (like pitching from the stretch with RISP, for example) and all that. Plus, Morrow wasn’t even throwing max-velocity heaters most of the game, he was mixing it up and retaining velocity right up until the end.
The Jays have been pretty careful with him all year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we skipped his start. We’ve allowed guys to finish what they’ve started if they’re doing pretty well, but we haven’t been shy about skipping a turn in the rotation to give them some rest. Heck, Marcum probably didn’t even need to go out earlier this year, but we were worried and gave his arm some rest.
One big pitch-count game shouldn’t be of huge concern if the rest of the year the guy’s treated well.
Morrow was dealing, Cito left him in. It was good. I don’t think the pitches he threw after Longoria’s single are really going to sink him. I hope not, because he’s pitched very well for us this year, for the most part. As long as we give him light duty in his next start (or even skip it) and don’t let him throw too much for the next couple of games, then he should be fine. I was at this game, and man, he was NASTY. Like really, really nasty.
Totally agree with this.
Pitch count IS important, but it isn’t the be all, end all. In a special scenario like this one, it makes sense to loosen up a bit. Not like he was throwing 200 pitches or something.
If the Jays are really concerned, put him on a strict pitch count for his next start.
Some of these comments are disgusting. This is like crapping all over Brandon Morrow’s gem. As for Mariners’ fans, please realize this was not a one-for-one trade.
For you pitch count zealots, do one of you maybe want to link me to a study that shows the affect of pitch counts on pitchers? I’d sure appreciate it, since we’re willing to write entire articles about their significance.
Research published in Baseball Prospectus’s “Baseball By the NUmbers” deals with both injuries and performance in regards to pitch counts.
Dr. James Andrews also provides research and commentary.
I’m not a zealot, but a former pitcher and current pitching coach of players age 9-18.
IMO, the pitch count is secondary to “stress” level of the game. It’s one thing to throw 137 pitches in a 6-5 game where you have runners on all day … and it’s a completely different scenario when you throw 137 pitches, almost all from the windup, and are just mowing guys down with no pressure.
That does mean that the pitches in the last inning are concerning since there is both fatigue and stress involved. There is reason to be cautious in that aspect, without being a zealot.
I did just want to reiterate that “context” is a very important factor in pitch counts. There is a “free and easy” 120 pitches, and there is a “laborsome” 120 pitches.