Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 2/3/26
| 2:01 |
: Finishing a call with Eric and James, so I’m going to get started a tick late today. My apologies.
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| 2:06 |
: My Angels list went live last week, as did Eric’s Phillies list.
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| 2:07 |
: There may also be some polls in this chat
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| 2:07 |
: First up: We’ve got prospect week coming up soon, and I will (probably) be doing some sort of feature in addition to the Top 100, helping on the college baseball update, picks to click, etc. What would be of most interest to you?
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| 2:09 |
:
Most interesting feature article:
Who is suffering from the end of short season? (10.0% | 9 votes)
My worst scouting report (14.4% | 13 votes)
Why Scouting in Person Remains Valuable (14.4% | 13 votes)
How Soon Can You Tell You’ve Made a Big Mistake in the Draft? (60.0% | 54 votes)
Eh, these are all meh (1.1% | 1 vote)
Total Votes: 90
|
| 2:10 |
: Okay, sorry for the delays, let’s roll
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| 2:10 |
: Do you have any hope for Luis Medina to re-emerge as a FOR candidate? Should certainly get opportunities on the pitching-starved A’s, no?
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| 2:10 |
: I think he’s a reliever and nothing about the injury makes starting any more likely
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| 2:11 |
: Travis Bazzana went first overall in a top ten that included Konnor Griffin, Chase Burns, and Nick Kurtz among others. Everyone’s careers have only just begun, but what does Bazzana need to look like over the next couple seasons for Guards fans to not feel disappointed with the pick?
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| 2:13 |
: I think there’s inevitably going to be some ‘what could have been’ even if it’s not really fair. Nobody is particularly happy when the game’s top prospect has a Bruce/Benintendi career even though it’s a perfectly fine outcome.
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| 2:13 |
: In the Angels system overview write-up, you mentioned their heavy fastball usage in the minors despite poor fastball characteristics. Is this something you’d anticipate changing under Jared Hughes’ new position, or is it always going to be a problem with the presence of old-school coaches?
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| 2:14 |
: Imagine it will change somewhat. I imagine that there will be a lot to glean on how Hughes has/hasn’t put his mark on the org as soon as this spring.
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| 2:14 |
: Is Michael Arroyo the guy the Mariners should be/are trying to trade, because he’s potentially blocked and his defense is a question? Or is he the guy they should be/are trying to keep (over, say, Cjintje/Ford) because they’re that confident in the bat?
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| 2:15 |
: That was where my head was this past July. A pull fly ball righty with 50/55 power in that park isn’t a great fit.
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| 2:15 |
: Jonah Tong rocketed through the minors last season and had a cup of coffee in the majors in September. What does he need to work on while he is in the minors since the Mets currently have 6 starters? Better movement on his fastball? Better control over his secondary pitches? There’s comparisons to Yesavage of the Blue Jays and Yesavage was awesome in the postseason.
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| 2:16 |
: Finding a better breaking ball would help a lot. I’m also curious to see if there’s another command gear. His fastball is good enough to dominate minor league hitters in the zone. Big leaguers gave him a rough ride, in part because he’s prone to missing middle-middle. Can he fix that?
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| 2:16 |
: Your grade on the Donovan deal?
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| 2:18 |
: Seattle: This is what they should be doing, especially if they’re not going to pony up St. Louis: This is what they should be doing, I’m maybe a little surprised that the second piece isn’t better. But also Jurrangelo could be very, very good and maybe that’s enough. Tampa Bay: The team that doesn’t look like it really belongs in the deal is usually in good shape. The renter, if you will. |
| 2:18 |
: Will Nelson Rada make the angels opening day or will they go with Bryce Teodosio in center? Is there a chance that they trade for someone?
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| 2:19 |
: I suspect Rada doesn’t break camp but if anyone was gonna push him…
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| 2:19 |
: I know he’s technically not a prospect anymore, but what are your thoughts about Jordan Lawlar and his less than thrilling exposure to the majors so far? What needs to click for him, and what evidence are we looking for to see that it’s happening?
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| 2:19 |
: Pretty concerned. Doesn’t look good at second.
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| 2:20 |
: Should the Royals trade Blake Mitchell? They might have the best catching depth in the Majors/Minors and they need outfield help and he is a top end prospect.
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| 2:21 |
: One of the catchers would make a good trade chip. With Mitchell, all probably want to see what he looks like this spring.
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| 2:21 |
: Who do like best over the net ten years – McGonigle, Wetherholt or Jackson Holliday?
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| 2:21 |
: That order
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| 2:21 |
: I was 36th on the FG draft board in 2023 out of High School. Defense was my carrying tool. How do you grade me now? (I know you were not at FG in 2023).
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| 2:22 |
: Text from a scout last week: “Roch is so f*ing good”
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| 2:24 |
: Odds that Griffin is on the opening day roster?
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| 2:24 |
: Under 50/50 but there were people curious what it would like in the bigs as early as last summer so it’s not gonna be long.
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| 2:25 |
: Any red flags in Edgar Montero’s profile? I noticed his swing rate was definitely on the passive side
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| 2:27 |
: Really hard to judge patience vs. passivity off numbers at that level. On the one hand, lowest swing rate in the org. On the other, huge jump in swings on balls down the middle, chase rate barely budges with two strikes. That doesn’t strike me as passive.
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| 2:28 |
: Is Henry Godbout just Nick Yorke again? Or is there more there?
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| 2:28 |
: Don’t think they’re especially similar. If you mean “high pick who doesn’t really pan out,” well, most of them don’t.
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| 2:28 |
: Do the Giants have any SP prospects comparable to Jurrangelo they could have used to get Donovan?
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| 2:29 |
: No, I like their low-level arms a good bit but neither they nor Whisenhunt would tempt me quite the same way
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| 2:30 |
: Tong needs to improve his command some, for sure, but it isn’t also fair to suggest that his final numbers in the bigs were influenced by some bad luck? His ERA was more than 3 full points higher than his FIP and xFIP, his HR/FB would have ranked in the top 10 worst among qualified starters, and his BABIP was .396 (!). This site’s projection systems are all suggesting that he would have an ERA somewhere between 3.35 and 4.07.
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| 2:31 |
: Not a Tong specific thought, but I suspect that small sample high BABIP or HR/FB are less noisy than they may seem; reverse survivor bias.
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| 2:31 |
: Like, if I gave up a .380 BABIP and 20% home run rate, you wouldn’t just regress that, right?
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| 2:32 |
: Carson Benge… do you think the Mets are correct in believing he’s potentially ready to be their starting LFer? or do you think he’s be better served with more time in Syracuse?
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| 2:32 |
: Nothing wrong with giving him a chance, would be surprised if he wins he job out of camp.
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| 2:32 |
: I’m greedy, I want both – Why Scouting in Person Remains Valuable – How Soon Can You Tell You’ve Made a Big Mistake in the Draft?
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| 2:33 |
: I will try to get to both at some point. Surprised short-season is tracking so poorly here. Maybe because it isn’t quite as relevant for fantasy baseball?
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| 2:33 |
: The person who voted “these are all meh” was one of the first 2-3 respondents, which had me a little panicked.
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| 2:34 |
: Oh, do you think Henry Godbout is “not going to work out”? That’s usually the right answer, but he showed well jumping straight to HiA. That’s a good start.
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| 2:35 |
: I pulled up some video on him and he’s a fringy athlete with a sell-out-for-contact swing and 40 power. Don’t love it.
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| 2:35 |
: Where would you rank Cam Schlittler in the top 100 had he not exceeded rookie eligibility last year? Ceiling of a #3 type?
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| 2:35 |
: High, 55 tier
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| 2:35 |
: How far apart (if any) are Tong and Sproat as prospects? If you were the Brewers and had a choice whom would you have chosen and why?
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| 2:36 |
: Sproat ahead for me
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| 2:36 |
: Do you think Dillon Lewis is going to rank high on Marlins List?
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| 2:37 |
: Could get a 40+. Have a source who likes him quite a bit. I love the power and bat speed, see as more of a 4th/platoon option but there’s upside.
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| 2:37 |
: Any thoughts on some of the Jays’ younger 40-man roster players that only recently graduated prospect status? Jimenez, Loperfido, Clase, Schneider, Barger, Francis, Fisher, Fluharty… I think that’s all of them
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| 2:39 |
: Lot of these guys are what they look like. Barger has paths forward… Clase looks in hindsight like an early maturer, think he’s a 4th/5th OF. Loperfido similar tier, can help. Fluharty/Schneider/Francis all great finds for their group.
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| 2:39 |
: Is Coby Mayo bad?
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| 2:40 |
: They’re all incredible.
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| 2:40 |
: Is Jurrangelo just going to be developed as a right-handed pitcher? From a neutral fan perspective, that would be a bummer.
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| 2:40 |
: Real misalignment here between “most fun” and “most likely to produce the most WAR”
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| 2:42 |
: Does Jack Leitet have another gear in him?
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| 2:42 |
: It’s in there, yes.
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| 2:42 |
: Thinking of Spencer Jones particularly, but a more general question: how good does a guy need to hit in AAA with a strikeout rate of around 35% to give you confidence he could actually hit in MLB? 170-180 wRC+?
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| 2:43 |
: I don’t think you can be particularly confident if he’s striking out that much at any wRC+. Now, depending on the guy, you may think the potential juice is worth the squeeze even if the odds it works aren’t great, which is where I’m at on Jones.
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| 2:43 |
: My take on why the Short Season article trails is that, I have lower expectations of learning something new there. Isn’t the answer somewhat intuitive, or at this point revealed by a few years of evidence? There are lots of studies out there that report stuff we already know… “Hey, turns out a diet of potato chips and coke zero is bad for you.” This feels like that.
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| 2:44 |
: Fair. We can get reductive on all of this though. “How soon can you tell you’ve made a big mistake?” When he plays like shit and is kind of a prick.
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| 2:45 |
: “Sproat ahead for me” – say more. Is that being more down on Tong or more up on Sproat? As a dynasty Sproat owner, and after a rough AAA year (yes, I know the last X starts at AAA were good), I’m intrigued.
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| 2:45 |
: Fuller thoughts on Sproat: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brewing-with-gas-evaluating-jett-williams-…
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| 2:46 |
: In general, about how many PA or IP for a player at the majors before we can comfortably say “this is what he is”?
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| 2:46 |
: Depends on the player. Tapped out athletes will reach that point pretty quickly. We were exploring Homer Bailey’s paths forward until he retired.
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| 2:46 |
: Which orgs would be best-positioned to benefit if the draft ends up getting reduced to 10 rounds? E.g. who’s the best currently at undrafted signees?
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| 2:47 |
: Great/fun question. The teams that are the best at finding complimentary pieces at smaller schools where the data is less reliable should be well positioned to slay.
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| 2:48 |
: Odds that Framber takes a short term deal with opt outs? Does the attached draft pick make that deal more or less attractive to the signing club?
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| 2:48 |
: Looking likely. Trying to think of recent examples of guys who signed this late who didn’t take that kind of contact. I’m sure someone more recent than James Shields but the top of my head is letting me down here.
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| 2:49 |
: Thank you so much for the insight on Montero’s swing tendencies! We don’t have access to the more granular data so it’s hugely appreciated
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| 2:50 |
: You’re welcome, I wish I had a better way to view DSL AB’s and give a better answer.
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| 2:51 |
: Im curious how you feel about CJ Kayfus. I’ve had the impression that Eric has been lower than the consensus on him.
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| 2:51 |
: I’m with Eric, think he can help, little skeptical he’s a regular.
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| 2:51 |
: Might be a dumb question, but why are the young IFAs almost never pitchers? Is it because 16 year olds rarely have enough velo and nobody’s comfortable projecting a kid that young to hit mid 90s?
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| 2:52 |
: Teams sign of plenty of pitchers but are leery of giving them big bonuses for the reasons you mention and then also injuries.
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| 2:52 |
: Older signees are more likely to be pitchers because pitching ages very differently
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| 2:52 |
: River Ryan starts ________ games this season and has a era of _________
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| 2:53 |
: 23; 3.45
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| 2:54 |
: Brendan, two low-level A’s prospects that I intend to follow this year are Cole Miller and Edgar Montero. I am interested in your opinion about them. Thank you.
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| 2:54 |
: We’ve touched on Montero — Miller I like as a plus/plus-plus command/control guy with good secondaries. Wish he threw harder. Backend SP.
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| 2:55 |
: This time next year the Nats are a top ___ farm system
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| 2:56 |
: If they cash out on Abrams, Top 10? Would’ve helped a lot if they could’ve drafted higher this year
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| 2:57 |
: Top of your head rank on whos relevant in 3 years: Kendry Rojas, Dasan Hill, TJ Nicols or Khal Stephan?
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| 2:57 |
: Need to do work on nicols to answer fully but Stephan will be the highest ranked of that group this year
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| 2:57 |
: I’ve become a prospect hound in the last few years, but I struggle to keep up with breakouts in season. Knowing there’s hundreds of players on The Board, how do you prioritize in-season looks at guys? Start with stat breakouts? Industry sources? Or just watching as much tape as you can get your hands on?
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| 2:58 |
: This is the big advantage teams have over the public. So many scouts and tools to be on this very quickly. I’ll be leaning on all of the above to try to keep up.
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| 2:58 |
: I get what you’re saying about BABIP and HR% re: Tong, but what about the huge gap between ERA and FIP and the optimistic projections? It just feels like people some people are focused on the final numbers and memories of a few of the HRs that he gave up and forgetting that he not only put up a truly dominant season across 3 levels of the minors but also was able to get plenty of outs at the big league level.
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| 2:59 |
: I’m not really focused on the numbers so much as concerned about breaking ball quality and fastball command. He’s going to be a Top 100 arm but I don’t think he’s a sure thing and I have durability concerns on top of everything else.
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| 3:00 |
: When guys are roster filler and have no shot of making it to the show, do they…..know?
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| 3:01 |
: Some do, a lot have no idea, many are correctly calibrated that the odds are very long but when you’ve got a jersey and a job you never know and you might as well put everything you’ve got into finding out.
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| 3:01 |
: In 2024, Made was given a 30 power grade here. A little over a year and a half later, it’s 60.
What kind of precautions do you take when sourcing info from pre-debut international signees? (Or did Made really get *that* good* between signing and DSL?) |
| 3:02 |
: You have to accept that there’s going to be a lot of volatility in that space. As a fan, fair to not put much stock in it until they start playing as a pro imo.
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| 3:03 |
: What surprises folks most about scouting when you tell it to them?
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| 3:04 |
: How much travel there is.
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| 3:04 |
: Deep deep cut from the Pirates system: Has Callan Moss made himself interesting by putting up huge numbers after the trade?
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| 3:05 |
: I don’t think the post-trade numbers move the needle. Interesting flier bat who crushed it after the move.
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| 3:05 |
: Do you think we’ll see more Gore trades (i.e. quantity/grab bag return over quality/top ranked) as teams get more and in love with their top prospects?
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| 3:06 |
: This is what most non-Padres trades look like. Maybe Gore a more extreme example of the trend given the volume and lack of a consensus top 100 guy… But also maybe WAS thinks they got two top 100 players? They’ll have their own list and certainly more faith in their eval of Gavin Fien than I do.
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| 3:07 |
: Here’s something I’ve never understood: leverage in the draft. A guy might seem to have more leverage if he’s drafted as a junior, since he can always go back to college. But if you game this out — once he’s a senior, he has no leverage and has to sign. So wouldn’t it then follow that he really has no leverage as a junior either, since both parties know he’ll be putting himself in a bad position? Help me make it make sense arghhhh
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| 3:09 |
: Game it out further though and it makes no sense for the teams to get overly cute. First, these bonuses are normally negotiated in advance; you do not want to burn your credibility by reneging. And if it’s a top ten rounder, you forfeit the slot value money if you lowball the guy too much and tick him off to the point that he goes back to school anyway.
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| 3:09 |
: Do you think Ben Williamson is a big loss? I don’t, but some Mariners fans seem to think so.
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| 3:11 |
: Good complementary player imo. TBR interested in seeing if he can play short. Worth a shot, but see him as less of a fit there than other elite 3B defenders. Think his first step/positional instincts/ability to make plays when leaving his feet are all very well calibrated for third and don’t necessarily translate to short.
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| 3:11 |
: Could a 110 mph fastball with NO secondaries do the job?
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| 3:12 |
: It’s such an outlier velo wise that it’s possible.
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| 3:12 |
: Plate discipline: why do guys almost never get meaningfully better at it as they develop?
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| 3:13 |
: I think they can and do but it’s often more at the margins. And hard to coach ‘see-ball, hit-ball’ out of certain guys
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| 3:13 |
: where do you stand on importance of command vs stuff spectrum for high school arms? TGA & Braylon Doughty are both listed as 45+ FVs but couldnt be more different as prospects as an example
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| 3:14 |
: Depends on the player, but different packages/blends can work. Ideally you’re looking for a lot of paths forward one way or the other.
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| 3:15 |
: Piggybacking on the question above about in-season breakouts, is there any plan to bring back some sort of daily/weekly prospect round up?
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| 3:15 |
: No plan. I understand why readers like them, but they are very labor intensive and, in my experience doing them a long time ago, did not position me especially well for figuring out who was really breaking out, vs. just posting good numbers.
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| 3:16 |
: Is Termarr Johnson still considered the 2B of the future for Pittsburgh?
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| 3:16 |
: Still well on the radar but they’re not exactly clearing the deck for his arrival.
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| 3:17 |
: Thanks for answering the follow-ups re: Tong- appreciate your thoughts. When you say you don’t think he’s a sure thing, what does that mean in your book? Like, I have no misapprehension that he is the next Paul Skenes, but I think the odds are pretty good that he can put up numbers similar to a Tylor Megill or a David Peterson– with upside to be better. Having watched both Tong and Blade Tidwell last season, Tong was able to finish guys off in a way that Tidwell wasn’t– that’s what makes me optimistic about him.
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| 3:17 |
: I think there’s real reliever risk here.
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| 3:18 |
: AJ Ewing: Some are super high on him (like Kiley McDaniel), others less so. He’s a fun player but do you think he’s even worthy of the top 100?
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| 3:19 |
: He was on the long list for Top 100 consideration. I like him, there’s a path for him to be a regular, the likelihood of that plus relatively light top end outcomes are going to push him into the 45+ tier this cycle.
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| 3:20 |
: If you had to pick a Jays prospect who you think will shoot up their list who would you say
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| 3:22 |
: Top 10 guy who could make the 100 next year: Johnny King, Juan Sanchez Honorable mention guy who could rocket up the main section: Jake Casey |
| 3:23 |
: What’s the single best tool you’ve ever scouted? Who had it?
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| 3:24 |
: I’ve seen a handful of 80’s. Braiden Ward’s speed was goofy in college, he’d ground a single through the four-hole and it would just be a double. Druw Jones in center stands out as well.
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| 3:24 |
: I know the switch-pitcher thing is fun and novel, but would there also be health benefits? Rather than 100 pitches on your right arm, maybe a 70/30 split between right and left?
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| 3:25 |
: No idea. Has firing fewer bullets at max effort helped anyone stay healthy? Are there ways that the stress on his legs from maintaining both sides has a deleterious effect? And that’s before considering whether it’s really worth developing the lefty thing which has a pretty low ceiling imo.
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| 3:25 |
: Thoiughts on what you saw from Roki Sasaki in 25? How will the LAD utilize him this season? And how do you think he should be utilized?
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| 3:26 |
: Would give him another chance to start but think reliever is probably more likely at this point
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| 3:27 |
: If you didn’t have sources from your time team-side, how would you go about acquiring private minor league data (video, metrics, anything that isn’t freely-available)?
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| 3:28 |
: Try to cultivate a source. I would not risk prison
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| 3:28 |
: Do teams ever scout in a way that accounts for how long players’ physical peak might be?
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| 3:28 |
: Absolutely. Definitely want to have an idea if someone is an early mature guy, etc.
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| 3:29 |
: You aren’t the person for this question but Kiley McDaniel had Sam Shaw in the Blue Jays system as a top 200 prospect. Nobody I’ve seen has him in the top 20 in the Jays system. I’m curious if there’s an underlying thing there that McDaniel likes, is there some gaudy advanced number that you know of?
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| 3:30 |
: I try not to comment on other people’s stuff but I put a future plus hit on the guy and I can nod along if someone else sees the same and thinks “uh, why wouldn’t you really want this?”
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| 3:30 |
: If you could force a lightbulb moment in Oneil Cruz’s head, would he be more selective? Or is it not that simple; does gaining that selectivity require skills he doesn’t yet have and may never have?
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| 3:31 |
: Not that simple. He WAS a lot more selective last year; it didn’t really help because dialing it down in general also meant taking more pitches he could drive.
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| 3:31 |
: Re: pay-to-access minor league stuff, wouldn’t Synergy be modestly helpful? I think that’s $6500/yr. 🙁
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| 3:32 |
: We have that. There are other programs available. I assumed he was talking about stuff supplementary to what you can pay for, which may have been silly of me.
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| 3:32 |
: I think (at least back in the day) the minor league ball was a bit different than the majors ball. Mainly higher seams, but maybe some other differences. Is that still the case? How is that taken into account for modern pitch tracking data and ‘stuff’ metrics? Like, will a dude’s 4S fastball just be expected to have less ‘rise’ in the majors?
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| 3:33 |
: This is always a big conversation with pitchers coming from Asia. In my personal opinion, it’s part of the equation and does not effect everybody identically… but it’s not the kind of thing that scares me a whole lot.
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| 3:34 |
: In Brendan Gawlowski’s best year, what were his scouting grades?
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| 3:34 |
: Put it this way: in college I was an outfielder and on game days I was sitting in the stands with a clipboard charting our pitchers.
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| 3:35 |
: love me some Juan Sanchez, King and Casey! Would guys like Blaine Bullard and Tim Piastenian fit that bill too?
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| 3:35 |
: Yes
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| 3:35 |
: speaking of the ball – I’m seeing some college pitchers get like 24 IVB. Assuming it’s not a misread….why so different?
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| 3:36 |
: Good question. Could be calibration, I’ve seen a backfield 25 IVB and there was no way…
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| 3:37 |
: More Mets question…a couple of years ago it was Jett Williams for CF…then Carson Benge, though now he may be a LF…and I see AJ Ewing is the next Met prospect slated for CF. Does Benge not have the right skill set to stay in CF or does Ewing just project to be a better CF so might as well move Benge to LF now.
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| 3:37 |
: Mets fans are all over this chat, my word. I think Benge can play CF and that positional stuff tends to work itself out based on who can hit and who can’t
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| 3:38 |
: I was guardedly optimistic that Forrest Whitley had found himself in the best place to succeed in TB and might get another crack at MLB in 2026. Then he leaves for the NPB. Do you have any expectations for him there or when he might come back to the states?
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| 3:38 |
: Another guy who will have paths forward until he hangs them up.
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| 3:39 |
: Looking at international prospects like Jesus Made who dont sign for the top top bonus money – what is the one or two things you look for in DSL stats (or otherwise) that make you plant your flag on these 16, 17, 18 year old kids to be the next big thing?
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| 3:40 |
: With the caveat that I put more value on the scouting side than the data at that level… Statistically, it’s mostly the same things you want to see everywhere else. Lot of contact. Good power. Some feel for hitting it in the air.
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| 3:40 |
: The further away you are, the more you want to see tools. Skills can come later. If you don’t have tools or a path to them… that’s tough.
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| 3:40 |
: I would think each challenge would only add a few seconds to the game.
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| 3:41 |
: Pretty much. There are games where they stack a little in a way that can get kind of tedious but for the most part it won’t be cumbersome.
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| 3:41 |
: I found the games where teams got two challenges flowed better than ones where they got three
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| 3:41 |
: What’s your best guess as to what happened with the Yankees/Rowland thing with cancelling all their commitments?
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| 3:42 |
: Lot of questions about this, you should ask Eric, I’ve got nothing.
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| 3:42 |
: re: college IVB, iirc the seams are higher on the college ball
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| 3:43 |
: Why have a limit at all on the number of challenges? This forces managers to use some kind of strategy where they have to let missed calls go if an umpire is having a bad day.
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| 3:44 |
: So you don’t challenge literally every single pitch
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| 3:44 |
: Do you think teams have too many, too little, or the right amount of minor league control seasons?
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| 3:44 |
: Too many
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| 3:45 |
: When scouting in person, how do you judge individual tools? Is it merely some guys having a certain “je nais se quoi” that makes your eyes light up?
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| 3:46 |
: Mostly an experience/feel thing. Some present grades are more objective — raw power and speed are the big ones. In theory you could do this with arm strength if you weren’t giving weight to release/accuracy.
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| 3:47 |
: Asked Jay a similar question and he was….not optimistic. Rockies seem both meaningfully better but also on track to lose 100 games. What’s a fair timeline for returning to 500 ball?
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| 3:47 |
: We need to see how the new group operates from top to bottom. The pitching is so bad that it’s hard to see them not losing 100 again this year.
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| 3:48 |
: What’s your take on 2025 Nick Kurtz and how high is his ceiling now?
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| 3:49 |
: That 2025 may have been peak performance and that also he could be a monster even if that’s true. Like, several HOF 1B never had a 173 wRC+ like Kurtz did last year
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| 3:49 |
: Eddie Murray never had a 160. McGriff topped out at 162. Thome only topped 170 in a full season once. It’s nuts.
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| 3:50 |
: would love to hear who you think are the 3 most underrated systems and conversely a couple where you think are more over ranked.
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| 3:51 |
: Not trying to be snarky, but if I’m the one rating the systems…
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| 3:51 |
: Speaking of the Rockies, Chase Dollander had such extreme home/road splits – I know, all Rockies pitchers do – but for him a sub 4 ERA with a .200 BA while posting nearly a 10 ERA at home. Where would he rank for you on a TOP100 list among all of today’s young pitchers IF they each pitched at an equally neutral ballpark?
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| 3:51 |
: I had him as a No. 3 SP and wouldn’t move off that yet.
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| 3:52 |
: I recently started writing for a baseball site (a lot smaller than FG, but still fun). How do you balance writing what you care about with what your audience will pay to read?
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| 3:52 |
: Write what you care about. Best path to writing the kind of interesting things that someone will then pay you to read.
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| 3:52 |
: Does Bremner reach LAA this year given how the Angels promote their high draft picks so quickly.
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| 3:52 |
: Barring injury I think so
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| 3:52 |
: Is speed connected to a hit tool grade or separate? Meaning if two hitters have the same hit tool but one is faster, is he expected to hit for a higher average or is that already baked-in to the “same” grade?
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| 3:53 |
: Not connected. Tons of 80 runners post modest BABIP’s
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| 3:53 |
: Not that there are tons of 80 runners, but you get my point
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| 3:55 |
: I understand we don’t want almost every pitch challenged, but 2 or 3 seems really low considering the time it takes up. How about 9 challenges, one per inning on average, and managers can use them at their discretion?
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| 3:55 |
: Pass.
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| 3:56 |
: The success rate on challenges was under 50% last year. And in my mind, if you’re not any better than a 50/50, why should you get to take a bunch of everybody’s time with challenges?
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| 3:57 |
: My bias here is that I don’t particularly care for review/replay in general in sports. I want really quick interventions and can live with missed calls.
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| 3:57 |
: Are there enough positives in Christian Moore’s game to make you a believer that he’ll hold down the Halo’s second base position for the next 8 years?
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| 3:57 |
: That’s a very specific time frame but I do like him and think he can be their 2B for a while
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| 3:58 |
: If you could pick 1 prospect in all of MiLB to reach his 90th percentile projected outcome, who would it be?
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| 3:58 |
: Konnor Griffin. Let’s aim big.
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| 3:58 |
: I’m curious to know your thoughts on why the owners would want to eliminate low A. I understand it saves them a bit of money but it also could cost them some one would think. Like the Davis Schneider’s of the world would be released and therefore they wouldn’t have had the profits from people who bought his jersey. Is this not just a dumb move that hurts the future of baseball?
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| 3:59 |
: If Davis Schneider gets released, someone else produces and gets their jersey sold instead. I’m as or more disappointed than you about the direction this is going, but that particular thing is not why this is shortsighted
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| 4:00 |
: Strangest thing you’ve seen on a minor league baseball field?
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| 4:00 |
: Lot of candidates, but the time one of Corbin Carroll’s high school teammates spiked a pitch on the front of the plate in a way that carried it over the backstop sticks out
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| 4:01 |
: How many inning do you think Chase Burns throws this year?
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| 4:01 |
: 140? Suspect Cincy doesn’t want a huge innings jump and his style is going to produce a bunch of five and dives anyway
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| 4:01 |
: How often do guys get called up for a cup of coffee on out of contention teams because their team just feels like they’ve put their time in and they’ve earned the right to taste MLB?
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| 4:02 |
: Rarely, especially with thinner September rosters. But it happens.
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| 4:03 |
: One way it can happen is like with Drew Maggi, where there’s a very short term need and you don’t want to put a better player on the 40 for whatever reason
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| 4:03 |
: bring back 40 man september rosters. I want to see my whole AAA bullpen collectively throw 13 IP, dang it!
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| 4:04 |
: I loved old September baseball. And on that wistful note I should shut it down. Thanks for hanging out everyone, we’ll do it again next week.
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Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
A second prospect chat is definitely a breath of fresh air. Thanks for doing these!