Philadelphia Phillies Top 34 Prospects

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Philadelphia Phillies. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aidan Miller | 21.6 | AAA | SS | 2026 | 55 |
| 2 | Andrew Painter | 22.8 | AAA | SP | 2026 | 55 |
| 3 | Justin Crawford | 22.0 | AAA | CF | 2026 | 45+ |
| 4 | Aroon Escobar | 21.1 | AA | 2B | 2028 | 45 |
| 5 | Gage Wood | 22.1 | A | SP | 2026 | 45 |
| 6 | Moisés Chace | 22.6 | AA | SP | 2026 | 45 |
| 7 | Jean Cabrera | 24.3 | AA | SP | 2026 | 45 |
| 8 | Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 24.9 | AAA | LF | 2026 | 45 |
| 9 | Francisco Renteria | 17.1 | R | LF | 2031 | 45 |
| 10 | Matthew Fisher | 19.9 | R | SP | 2031 | 45 |
| 11 | Romeli Espinosa | 17.6 | R | SS | 2031 | 40+ |
| 12 | Cade Obermueller | 22.5 | R | SP | 2027 | 40+ |
| 13 | Dante Nori | 21.3 | AA | CF | 2028 | 40+ |
| 14 | Alex McFarlane | 24.6 | AA | SIRP | 2026 | 40+ |
| 15 | Cody Bowker | 22.1 | R | MIRP | 2027 | 40 |
| 16 | Keaton Anthony | 24.6 | AAA | 1B | 2027 | 40 |
| 17 | Gabe Craig | 24.6 | A | SIRP | 2027 | 40 |
| 18 | Ramon Marquez | 20.4 | A | SIRP | 2028 | 40 |
| 19 | Dylan Campbell | 23.6 | AA | RF | 2027 | 40 |
| 20 | Alirio Ferrebus | 20.4 | A | C | 2030 | 40 |
| 21 | Anderson Araujo | 17.8 | R | C | 2031 | 40 |
| 22 | Dayber Cruceta | 17.9 | R | CF | 2030 | 40 |
| 23 | Kehden Hettiger | 21.7 | AA | C | 2029 | 40 |
| 24 | Seth Johnson | 27.4 | MLB | SIRP | 2026 | 40 |
| 25 | Zach McCambley | 26.7 | AAA | SIRP | 2026 | 40 |
| 26 | Brad Pacheco | 20.6 | R | SIRP | 2029 | 40 |
| 27 | Wen-Hui Pan | 23.4 | A+ | SIRP | 2027 | 40 |
| 28 | Bryan Rincon | 22.0 | A+ | SS | 2028 | 35+ |
| 29 | Devin Saltiban | 21.0 | A+ | CF | 2029 | 35+ |
| 30 | Griffin Burkholder | 20.4 | A | CF | 2029 | 35+ |
| 31 | Michael Mercado | 26.8 | MLB | MIRP | 2026 | 35+ |
| 32 | Yoniel Curet | 23.2 | AAA | SIRP | 2026 | 35+ |
| 33 | Cristhian Tortosa | 27.2 | AA | SIRP | 2026 | 35+ |
| 34 | Titan Kennedy-Hayes | 24.2 | A+ | SIRP | 2028 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Shot to Start
Sean Youngerman, RHP
Enyel Garcia, RHP
Ryan Dromboski, RHP
Juan Amarante, LHP
Zuher Yousuf, LHP
Angel Liranzo, LHP
Youngerman, a 2025 fourth rounder out of Oklahoma State, has a cut/ride fastball that sits 93. He also locates two below-average secondary pitches. Garcia, 18, is a broad-shouldered, 6-foot-4 Dominican righty with a loose arm action and good breaking ball depth. He’s someone to monitor for increased velo in 2026, as he certainly has the build and mechanical look of a guy who’s going to bring it in the mid-90s or better at peak. Dromboski was a 2024 undrafted free agent out of Penn who performed well enough early in 2025 to move into Clearwater’s rotation and then get promoted to Jersey Shore. He doesn’t throw very hard and is a below-average athlete, but his slider and changeup are both good and give him a depth starter look. Amarante originally signed with the Pirates but never threw a pitch for their org; about six months later, he was cut loose and signed with Philly. He spent two years in the DSL and the last couple in Clearwater, where he’s pitched like a strike-throwing depth starter with an above-average changeup. Yousuf, 19, is a smaller Venezuelan lefty with a gorgeous delivery and feel for an average changeup and slider. His fastball averages 90 mph. Liranzo is a physical 19-year-old lefty with a great looking delivery. He only sits 90 mph, but his slider and changeup have played like average pitches and Liranzo throws strikes.
Less Stick Than the Position Demands
Carson DeMartini, 3B
Felix Reyes, OF
Manolfi Jimenez, OF
Raylin Heredia, OF
Jaeden Calderon, 1B/LF
Nikau Pouaka-Grego, 2B
John Spikerman, OF
DeMartini was Philly’s 2024 fourth rounder out of Virginia Tech and slugged his way to Reading in 2025. He generates roughly average low-ball power with a high-effort swing that has left him vulnerable to strikeouts. Though the Phillies have tried DeMartini at shortstop, he’s only a third base fit right now. He needs to demonstrate proficiency at at least one other position to be rostered as a utility guy with a 30 hit/50 power mix. Reyes is a gargantuan 24-year-old Dominican outfielder who crushed in Reading in 2025, where he slugged .572 and ran a plus contact rate for the third consecutive season. At roughly 6-foot-5, 260 pounds, he is in the Franmil Reyes mold both in terms of his size and tendency to chase. This guy could catch fire for a little while and have a big league season with 20-plus homers, but it’s tough to project sustained success for a lumbering left fielder who expands the zone this often. KBO teams should be all over him. Jimenez is a fairly projectable 21-year-old Dominican outfielder with good power for his age. He posted a 46% hard-hit rate in 2025, but he’s spent most of his four pro seasons in rookie ball and struggled at Clearwater when he was finally elevated there last year.
Heredia is a 22-year-old Dominican outfielder who has sported a .281/.344/.461 career line through High-A. His underlying data, as well as the visual evaluation of his tools, has both his hit tool and power in the 40/45 grade area. Calderon, 19, had two years with an .870-ish OPS in the DSL and then only played 12 FCL games last year. He has good bat control but pretty vanilla physical tools for a 1B/LF, and is a healthy rebound candidate for 2026. Pouaka-Grego, 22, is a little Kiwi second baseman who has above-average bat-to-ball skill but 30 power, and he’s had trouble staying healthy enough to play a whole season since signing. Spikerman was once a center field prospect with strikeout issues and is now a corner outfield prospect with strikeout issues after spending the majority of his 2025 time in right. The 22-year-old former third rounder K’d at a 30% clip.
Arm Strength Scratch-Off Tickets
James Tallon, LHP
Orlando Gonzalez, RHP
Danyony Pulido, RHP
Eligio Arias, RHP
Tallon is a 6-foot-5 lefty built like an Andean condor who generated plus miss on a 92 mph fastball in 2025 thanks to the arms-and-legs deception of his delivery. He’s wild and needs a second pitch, but he looks like a Jake Diekman starter kit in the uniform. Gonzalez is as 23-year-old Mexican righty from Jalisco who was playing summer ball for Saltilla when he signed with the Phillies in 2023. A low-level pitcher to this point, Gonzalez enjoyed a velo spike this offseason in Mexico, pitching winter ball for Hermosillo. He’s sitting 94-96 from a funky cross-bodied angle. If he can sustain that and throw strikes in 2026, he’ll be promoted aggressively. Pulido is a high-tension athlete with little feel for location. He’ll bump 98 and K’d 30.1% of opponents in 2025, albeit as a 22-year-old in the low minors. Arias, 22, is a 6-foot-7, 260-plus pound righty generating huge extension and touching 97. He’s wild and has a below-average slider.
Catching Depth
Paul McIntosh, C
Caleb Ricketts, C
McIntosh, 27, became a notable bat-first catching prospect during nearly a half decade in the Marlins system, then was traded to the Phillies as part of the Jesús Luzardo deal last offseason. He’s a physical, short-levered hitter who posted a 121 wRC+ during a 2025 season spent mostly at Reading, but McIntosh doesn’t throw well, and it’s a big enough issue that it’d be tough for him to catch in the bigs consistently. Ricketts is the lefty-hitting version of this profile. He has a nice swing and above-average contact feel, but he struggles to control the run game, allowing 72 steals (20 CS%) in 52 Double-A games last season.
Guys With a Good Breaking Ball
Christian McGowan, RHP
Brian Walters, RHP
Andrew Baker, RHP
Mavis Graves, LHP
Yordanis Guerra, LHP
Jake Eddington, RHP
Jose Pena Jr., RHP
Kevin Warunek, LHP
Giussepe Velasquez, RHP
McGowan had his second TJ in 2025 and will return as a reliever, which has always been the most likely outcome for him. He could be a mid-90s sinker/slider single-inning guy if his stuff comes back after surgery number two. Walters, a 2025 sixth rounder out of Miami, is the brother of Cleveland reliever Andrew Walters and a dead ringer for Craig Kimbrel, ginger beard and all. He sits 94-95, has a plus-flashing slider, and is exiting a program that hasn’t developed pitching well. He might have an extra gear, even if it just comes from elevating his fastball. Baker, nearly 26, sits 96-98 and has a plus slider, but his fastball plays way down due to a lack of movement and control. Graves is a lefty with a good slider who has struggled to throw strikes while being developed as a starter. If his 90ish-mph fastball ticks up in relief, he’ll be a solid second bullpen lefty. Guerra is a 19-year-old DSL lefty whose fastball sat in the upper 80s during the 2025 season and then was peaking more around 92 during Dominican instructs. He hides the ball well and has a dandy breaking ball. His raw breaker quality and perhaps growing velo make him a name to follow in 2026. Lefties with this kind of slider tend to at least play a relief role.
Eddington, a 2023 seventh rounder out of Missouri State, has a gorgeous arm action and an explosive, somewhat out-of-control delivery that produces some 96 mph fastballs. Each of Eddington’s pitches is very firm; this isn’t a guy who can change speeds. He has scattershot command that impacts his secondary pitch quality, but he looks like a potential reliever. Pena was drafted out of a Tampa high school in 2021 and only in 2025 did he leave the area, as he spent years on the complex and Low-A rosters before reaching Jersey Shore in 2025. He has two good breaking balls, but his 93-mph fastball plays down due to its angle. Warunek is an ultra-deceptive 23-year-old lefty who dominated the Florida State League in 2025 thanks to his super loose, deceptive delivery. He could be a specialist in the Sam Long mold. Velasquez, 22, has a good curveball and sits 92 as a starter. He started struggling with walks later in 2025 as his innings count grew. His best shot might be airing it out an inning at a time.
System Overview
Dave Dombrowski’s style as an executive has been to collect excellent big leaguers via trade or free agency more than it has been to home brew impact talent. In 2026, the Phillies won’t have a choice, as some of the guys on this list are going to have to emerge as integral contributors at key positions if the team is going to do more than just win the NL East again. Chief among those will be Justin Crawford in center field, a position at which Odúbel Herrera is the franchise WAR leader during the last decade. It’s too much to expect Crawford to be an impact player immediately, but if he’s given an opportunity early, he can naturally adjust to big league pitching and get a feel for making higher-quality contact as the season rolls along. If Crawford is “fine” this year, that should be enough.
It’s more imperative for the Phillies to get meaningful contributions from at least one rookie pitcher due to the injury to Zack Wheeler and the departure of Ranger Suárez in free agency. If Andrew Painter returns to form, he’ll provide it. If not, or more likely if other Phillies arms get hurt during the year, then focus will shift to the rehab of Moisés Chace (whose pre-injury fastball looked like an elite weapon) and the promotion pace of Gage Wood; both could be lights out for five-ish innings at a time and make an impact in September and October. Lots of viable relief depth is lurking in this system, either right on the Triple-A surface or charging hard from the mid-minors if the Phils are motivated to push their 2025 college draft arms, with Gabe Craig the relief-only prospect most likely to hit Reading quickly. Though they might have a pitching ceiling problem when it counts, they certainly don’t have a depth issue.
The Phillies continue to have a fruitful international program even though some of their high-dollar signees from the recent past have struggled. They maintain two DSL rosters most years and always have a couple of low-dollar prospects pop out of nowhere, and projectable athletic catchers are a common sight on both of their complexes. In the domestic draft, the Phillies have been chasing vertical, low-release fastballs more frequently during the last couple of years, and they’ve been taking lots of old-for-the-class high schoolers, with mixed results. Aidan Miller is one of those, and so far has progressed swimmingly. I’m not sure targeting older high schoolers is a great strategy in itself, but I agree that it’s worth zagging to take the occasional shot on a player who zigging clubs might be undervaluing just because of his age.
This is a slightly above-average system thanks to the impact of the top two guys and the depth of 45-FV prospects, which includes a balanced collection of high-upside young guys and ripe upper-level role players. That said, it will probably trend down considerably throughout 2026 because many of the top guys are likely to graduate and the Phillies tend to be deadline buyers.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
I’m just going to say, the added injury risk, the decent but nothing special performance in 2025 and the slight downtick in stuff all has me leaning towards Painter deserving merely a 50 FV.
Yes the grade doesn’t match the write up. He could even be 45+ with that write up
I’d disagree with the 45+ comment.
“Player development doesn’t often take a linear path, and so while Painter took a step back in 2025, it was at least for identifiable reasons that could feasibly be remedied and return him to dominant form in short order. If not, he’s more likely to be a secondary-oriented mid-rotation guy.”
Mid-rotation guy, according to the FV primer (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-new-fangraphs-scouting-primer/), is 50-55, and Eric is suggesting that’s his low-end outcome. Feels safely at 50+, with lots of reason to believe he can climb back toward his previous heights
It’s interesting that 50+ is not a grade–I wonder why?
Presumably the previous track record of looking like a 65, with the observed issues looking like rust/fatigue rather than systemic.
What I mean is that we’ve never seen anyone graded as a 50+. 35+, 40+, 45+, but no 50+.
Ahhh, gotcha – I’d guess it’s because 50s all end up on the Top Prospects list, so we have the ordinal ranking to distinguish them.
I believe he covers this question in his book, but I don’t remember exactly what his reasoning was. Maybe it’s because there are more players who live below 50 (I.e., tons of prospects are replacement level, but very few are comfortably above), so it’s worth distinguishing? That feels like a familiar reason, but don’t want to misquote him.
I see how one could read it that way. It’s just that he spent the first 3/4 of the blurb on all the problems before throwing that in.
The headline suggests this is a slightly above average farm but I don’t see it. Regardless of the $ scores I will show below, this looks to me like a back half farm that probably belongs around 20 range. Also based on FG grading system that too does not back it up
MIL: 303.5 (yes this includes Jett/Sproat)
CLE: 267
SEA: 263
LAD: 246
CHWS: 190.5
TOR: 179.5
AZ: 171
CIN: 170
PHI: 158.5
And just for fun my personal rankings of the farms
IMO zero bottom 5 farms yet to be revealed
Before the Freddy Peralta trade I would have put the Brewers first of that group too, with only the Mets and Tigers being in the same tier. But with Sproat and Williams it’s almost certainly the best farm system right now. One consensus top 3 prospect, five prospects in the FV50 to FV55 range, and another 8-10 prospects in the FV45 to 45+ range. It’s not as loaded as Boston’s farm system was last year at this time or as Baltimore’s system the 3 years before that but it slots in nicely after that.
I appreciate these updates. Keep up the good work.
I’m using my question of Crawford’s grades to ask a process question more broadly
Considering he has hit nearly 20 hrs over the last couple years (though how many were over the fence is relevant), I find it hard to believe his present power is bottom of the scale. Even with his extreme ground ball tendency, that seems like an 30 or 35 present power. And that’s before getting to his exit velo numbers (average and max) which are strong. find it hard to believe his future power is only a 30.
Do you use future grades as a 50th percentile future grade? Or a most-likely grade?
If so, how would you rate Crawford’s 90th percentile power?
TIA
He doesn’t even hit fly balls hard, among 452 players to hit 25+ flyballs in AAA, his average exit velo is 355th. Of his 49 flyballs, only 1 went 105+ and only 6 went 100+. He also had a below average pull rate only pulling 11 of his flyballs. IMO it is likely he’ll slug sub 400 in the majors
Do you remember Dylan Cozens? Of course you don’t, he only has 45 MLB plate appearances in his career. That’s only a little more than the forty homers he hit in a single season playing his home games at AA Reading. Rhys Hoskins also hit 38 homers that year in AA, and Jake Fox (career wRC+: 85) hit 23.
Here are some other players who have hit more than 20 homers in a single season playing for the AA Reading affiliate: Mike Costanzo (27), Tagg Bozied (27), Mitch Walding (25), Matt Rizzott (24), Jim Murphy (23), Jake Fox (a second time, with 22), Kyle Martin (22), Deivy Grullon (21), Greg Jacobs (21). How many of those players do you remember? I don’t remember any of them.
This is the place that Bryson Stott called home when he smashed 10 homers in about 350 PAs. He now plays his MLB home games in maybe the most homer-friendly stadium in MLB and has consistently hit 10-15 homers in 550-650 PAs. This should give you a sense of how the power translates.
Justin Crawford hit a mere 3 homers in 180 PAs when he was in AA.
That’ll do it!
Although I would argue future value would theoretically take that into account. It’s clear to me based on those numbers (and more importantly the scouting report) that’s his swing is geared for low contact. Fly balls are usually mis hits. I would think this is an example of someone with a dramatic difference in possibilities. Some guys never stop hitting grounders, but some guys hit enough of them in the air (without being mis hits) that they can be dangerous. I would not consider it likely but would not be surprised if a swing change unlocks more dangerous flyballs and his power performs like a 40 or 50.
And yes I remember Cozens because of that big year. Ironically I made the argument that he shouldn’t be seen as a top prospect because 40 hrs there isnt the same as 40 hrs elsewhere.
“Do you remember Dylan Cozens?”
My guess would be that the answer for anyone reading a prospect report for the Phillies is: duh, of course we remember Cozens. And people understand Reading man.
Apparently not!
I remember Dylan Cozens! In fact, I thought of him earlier tonight watching Avalanche @ Senators because apparently he shares a name with a Senators skater.
I remember Dylan Cozens!
RF only guy, struck out 30+% of the time and drastically fell off in AAA, while Crawford actually improved year on year (although ABS surely plays a role in the improved plate discipline).
Anyway, would be interesting to see a breakdown of Crawford’s Pull/Oppo batted ball data – there’s not a damn thing wrong with a 70 running lefty slashing grounders to the left side of the infield.
That’s kind of where I’m at. I understand the best offense is to pull the ball in the air, but, if he ends up at the Zips projection of .286/.337/.390 in 2026 while playing a good CF & good baserunning that is still a darn good player. & at only 22 years old, there is room to grow into more power.
Would be better with more power? Of course, but, swing changes are funny. You don’t want him chasing power & end up hitting .230/.285/.400 or something with a bunch of lazy flyballs.
& as a fan, it’s fun having guys with different skill sets.
I don’t think we have ever seen someone with that plus exit velocity, 70 speed, and a 60% ground ball rate before. The closest I can think of is Alek Thomas and that isn’t comforting. But there are a ton of cases where a player had two of those three things and were functional if unexciting hitters, and you would expect he would be better than them. There’s probably a pretty hard floor on Alek Thomas at the bottom and a hard ceiling as pre-breakout Christian Yelich at the top but I would guess the median outcome (a 45+, which I agree with) isn’t dramatically more likely than either of those. He’s an unusual prospect.
I would rate Crawford’s Oppo% as a legitimate differentiator from Thomas – was playing around on Statcast Search, and Crawford’s got a 38.7 Hard Hit% and a 88.5 EV to the opposite field.
Makes him look like a genuine “Hit it where it’s pitched” type, lancing balls to the left side rather than a “Lift and rip” guy who struggles to do the former.
Boss makes a dollar, I make a dime, that’s why I read this on company time!
No Pedro Leon? Still rookie qualified, has a great arm… am I wrong in thinking he could make an impact in 2026?
On one hand as a Phillies fan, if Aidan Miller becomes Zach Neto, that would be wonderful. If he wants to do that pre trade deadline, that would be great too.
On the other hand…as a Phillies fan seeing our door closing (if it isn’t already shut), this is not an overly exciting pool. With the history of teams post Dombrowski and overall the Phillies lack of development in the minors it doesn’t paint an overly pretty picture. Still waiting on the Scott Kingery breakout, heard he’s a future Chase Utley.
Really have to hope 2 of the 3 between Miller/Painter/Crawford are 1st division starters or some of 45s develop/become high leverage inning relievers.
Was hoping Renteria would have a bit more of a glowing eval as I have seen others talk him up a bit more. However, he can still barely drive so I suppose he has some growth.
With seven prospects here listed with a 60 fastball or better I think you’ll find a high leverage reliever. Chace is the most likely candidate since he’s got an outstanding fastball but has already been on the 40-man for year, is hurt, and looks no closer to being a starter. But Curet looks like he could be that guy too–the Phillies seem to have had some success with wild pitchers with arm strength.
Dombrowski had multiple contention windows with the Tigers…and he acquired the entire young core of that 2003 Marlins team, as well.
John Henry just wanted someone desperate enough for a GM job that he’d salary dump Mookie, which isn’t Dave’s style.
That’s what’s forgotten- Detroit was good for close to 10 years.
Made the WS in 2006, got destroyed by injuries in 2007 & still won 88 games, similar in 2008, but, worse record. Tied for the AL Central in 2009, decent in 2010, 2011-2014 won the AL Central, fell apart in 2015 after Scherzer left & Miggy got hurt so they sold off.
& the end in Detroit with quickened because of a bunch of win now moves to try & win before Mike Ilitch passed away.
DD spends $$, but, he also knows talent & knows who to trade & who to keep.
DD is just a legitimate Top 5 GM.
Like, a key part of what’s allowed Friedman to build the Death Star is realizing that Dombo’s approach has always been correct…and then building a system that can replicate and double-check it.
I had it in my memory that Andrew Painter was listed as the top pitching prospect one year. I don’t think he was at Fangraphs, at least. But I learned some interesting things anyway.
Top ranked pitching prospects in The Board era, excluding Japanese players:
2024: Paul Skenes
2023: Eury Perez
2022: Shane Baz
2021: Nate Pearson
2020: MacKenzie Gore
2019: Forrest Whitley
2017: Alex Reyes
Here are the other FV60 or higher pitching prospects: Anderson Espinoza, Yadier Alvarez, Francis Martes, Lucas Giolito, Brent Honeywell, Sixto Sanchez, Michael Kopech, Brendan McKay, Mitch Keller, Dustin May, Casey Mize, Jesus Luzardo, Matt Manning, Luis Patino, Ian Anderson, Tarik Skubal, Daniel Espino, Grayson Rodriguez, Jackson Jobe, and Andrew Painter.
That’s 27 names. We have the two best pitchers in baseball (Skubal and Skenes), three guys who have had real MLB success and looked awesome at times but it hasn’t been smooth at all (Mackenzie Gore, Lucas Giolito, Jesus Luzardo), three guys where general injury and inconsistency has made them change of scenery candidates (Shane Baz, Grayson Rodriguez, Dustin May), two boring #4 starters (Keller, Mize), two guys who had initial success but who have struggled since then (Anderson, Kopech) one where it is too soon to tell but it looks promising (Eury Perez) and another two where it is too soon to tell but it doesn’t look promising (Jobe, Painter).
And twelve busts. And aside from Espinoza and Alvarez, pretty much all of them had an FV60 or higher when they were in the upper minors.
I know it’s gets talked about all the time, but there really is no such thing as a pitching prospect!
Yes, although the moral of that story isn’t that you should give up entirely on pitching prospects, it’s that you need more pitching prospects.
And also that college pitching prospects are a better bet than high school because they’ve got a couple fewer years under their belt and they didn’t blow up yet.
I might be wrong about with my counting, but this is what I think the breakdown is of the names I listed:
College: 3
JC: 1
HS: 15
International: 8
This mostly makes sense, the players most likely to get an FV60 grade or higher are the ones who are young for the level.
One thing that always fascinated me was how successful prep arms are from the draft. And you can’t really look at where they’re drafted because prep arms drop due to demand in every draft. I took a look at prep arms ranked by Pipeline in the top 50 from 2017:
2017: Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Shane Baz, DL Hall, Sam Carlson, Trevor Rogers, Matt Sauer, Blayne Enlow, Hans Crouse, Tanner Burns, Hagen Danner, Jacob Heatherly, and Steven Jennings. 6 of these 13 (Greene, Gore, Baz, Hall, Rogers, and Jennings) were drafted in that top 50. This probably the best class and best outcome in this exercise. Greene looks like a #2 and so does Gore on his good days. Baz and Rogers reached the majors with some success.
2018: Matthew Liberatore, Carter Stewart, Cole Winn, Ryan Weathers, Cole Wilcox, Ethan Hankins, Grayson Rodriguez, Kumar Rocker, Mason Denaburg, JT Ginn, Adam Kloffenstein, and Lenny Torres. All but Wilcox, Rocker, and Kloffenstein were drafted in the top 50. Wilcox, Rocker, Ginn, and Stewart didn’t sign and went to college or overseas.
2019: Matt Allan, Quinn Priester, Brennan Malone, Daniel Espino, JJ Goss, Jack Leiter, Hunter Barco, and Josh Wolf. Several outlets panning this one of the worst prep pitching classes ever-naturally my Buccos leaned into it by drafting or acquiring 3 of the 8 names here. Allan, Malone, and Espino were ravaged by injuries, Leiter and Barco went to school.
2020: Mick Abel, Jared Kelley, Nick Bitsko, Carson Montgomery, Dax Fulton. Hard to make much of this draft as a trend, but the inability to throw strikes really seems to be a theme in this class.
2021: Jackson Jobe, Anthony Solometo, Andrew Painter, Bubba Chandler, Chase Petty, Frank Mozzicato, Gage Jump, Ben Kudrna, Chase Burns, Josh Hartle, Maddux Bruns. Probably the best group since 2017. Jobe has navigated injury issues before being waylaid by the Tommy John. Chandler is close to the best prospect in the game, and Painter was there shortly before him.
Over these five drafts, there are 49 pitchers ranked in the top 50. Eleven didn’t sign with their pro team. So you’re looking at 38 arms who entered the pros of which nearly all the value is tied up in that 2017 class. While some of that is undoubtedly due to that class having the most time to accrue value, the three classes in the middle have provided very little, although Libby may change that a bit.
The lesson may be that if the prep arm makes it through the injury minefield AND maintains (or better yet, enhances) his stuff, you may have something special. Those are two big ifs though.
I looked at something similar a few years ago and came to two conclusions which are not so different than yours
1) High school pitching prospects are risky enough that they should basically be dropped two full grades below their talent level. Eric does this, while the MLB.com guys typically only drop them one full grade. Teams have also mostly internalized this, I think because Tyler Kolek and Riley Pint have scared them. Seth Hernandez went at 9 but Dylan Lesko, Andrew Painter, and Nick Bitsko all went about 10 spots higher than expected. If you’re taking a high school pitcher with your first round draft pick there should be flashing lights warning you of this.
2) There are almost no hitting prospects that are worth taking after round 2 but a huge number of pitchers taken after round 2 become stars. Skubal is the most recent example of this, but you don’t have to go far to find others (Corey Kluber was another one). It’s pretty clear that teams have no idea what will make for a successful pitcher, especially at the high school level. So you might as well take as many as you want later on!
As a Phillies fan, man, sure feels like there’s a lot riding on fixing Painter this year. Wish I was more optimistic about that. I mean, I’m sure the Phillies knew by the start of last season, if not earlier, that Painter’s arm slot had dropped significantly and that it had significantly degraded the movement on his fastball.
Also a lot riding on Crawford not being “Ben Revere with worse routes”, or “Johan Rojas with with much harder ground balls but much worse defense.” I wish I was more optimistic about that too.
Ben Revere is a genuinely bizarre comp, mate – Crawford had 20 fewer hard hit balls this past year than Revere did in 1300 Statcast-era PA.
I don’t see any reason why Chandler Simpson would be a 50 last year, and Crawford is a 45+.
I think I’d give Crawford a 55
Consistent hitter, very likely to hit .300, some pop in there, defensive value, baserunning value. That’s a lot of things.
It’s also fun to see a player who can really use bunting for a hit as a weapon
I think Crawford’s a 50 – he’s definitely a 55 if he hits .300, but you can never bet on a prospect to hit .300 in the majors.