Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 4/28/26

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

Brendan Gawlowski: Usual housekeeping items… Last week I published the Royals list, so give that a look if you haven’t already. Eric and James are working on the Cubs right now and I’m most of the way down the trail on Padres. We’re gunning to publish both this week.

Brendan Gawlowski: I suspect Giants will follow those two before we pivot to the Florida teams to finish things out.

Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s get to it

drplantwrench: the angels bullpen is a goddamn disaster, and only partially because of injuries.  is there anyone in their minor league system that could provide backup?

Brendan Gawlowski: They’re thin, particularly if they’re going to use Urena as a starter. I was surprised Cody Laweryson didn’t stick, as he’s a perfectly fine fungible reliever, but he’s also hurt now, so.

Natitude Adjuster: Is the excitement-meter increasing for Ronny Cruz?

Brendan Gawlowski: Certainly in the comments here.

Brendan Gawlowski: I forgot to mention that Eric finished the Nats system in the housekeeping update above.

Brendan Gawlowski: For all the latest on Cruz, check there, that’s fresh.

Aaron: Any recent comps for Kade Anderson’s hot start?  SPs who debuted in AA and dominated right away?

Brendan Gawlowski: Unusual but not unheard of for advanced college arms to sail through the upper minors. Suspect he’s closer to Mike Leake than Paul Skenes but obviously very encouraging start.

OW: What should I be expecting from Bazzana? His profile feels a little overwhelming, but maybe he’s a perfect fit for the small ball terror offense in Cleveland?

Brendan Gawlowski: Modern hitter. Long AB’s, pulled fly balls, power over hit even without huge raw. Fair at second base.

Matt: You mentioned in the Angels list that Yilver De Paula was one of the players you were most excited to see this spring. Did you get a glimpse at him and, if so, what’d you see?

Brendan Gawlowski: I got a nice glimpse of him on the bench at the Breakout game. LAA both brought a small roster of prospects to the game and played fewer of them than anybody else.

Brendan Gawlowski: Caught him a tiny bit in other backfield action, looked good at short.

Jorge: Has your opinion of the Braves position player prospects changed since season opened?  Eric Hartman, Owen Carey, Isaiah Drake, Tate Southesiene, Cody Miller – seems like they have guys who could be GUYS in a way they haven’t for quite some time (not counting Drake Baldwin or Michael Harris).  Does the whole system look better or am I just being a fan?

Brendan Gawlowski: Was just texting a source about whether Atlanta has a case as the farm system off to the best start this year (at least relative to expectations). Really encouraged that Southisene has shortened up and found a way to make more contact. Hartman’s measurable power is up a grade, which is also exciting, though it’s coming with enough swing and miss that I want to dig on him a little bit before I get too excited.

Brendan Gawlowski: Ritchie continuing to throw the ball well

Brendan Gawlowski: Gil hitting for more power and seemingly no worse for wear with his speed

Brendan Gawlowski: All good stuff

guest: What’s your preferred non-MLB live baseball experience in greater Seattle: Huskies, Rainiers/Aquasox, Fish Sticks, or other? Also wouldn’t the Tacoma Tahomas be a way more fun name than the Rainiers?

Brendan Gawlowski: Everett. Professionally useful, sentimental favorite, close to home. I’m there a lot.

RAH: Wilber Dotel throwing smoke in a follower/long relief role. Does he have enough command to move into the rotation?

Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe in the hybrid role

Cool Lester Smooth: Any changes/improvements underlying Lombard’s hot start in AA, or is it mostly a function of him getting closer to drinking age?

Brendan Gawlowski: Looks a little stronger year over year, which always helps. Still seeing the same swing, he does a lot of damage on balls in and is particularly dangerous on pitches low and in. Still beatable up and away, tends to be under fastballs in the upper third. No major changes to profile, tracking in the middle of the “positive” and “as expected” part of the venn diagram

Ryan: Any prospects on your radar that could make the leap from a 45/50 to a 55 or higher?

Brendan Gawlowski: The guy that has most impressed me thus far is Luis Peña but the poor kid had a scary medical situation last week and so I want to hold off on anything baseball related until he’s back on the field.

NYY: Elmer Rodriguez called up to make his debut tomorrow. What do you see is his ceiling/floor? I know this is only temporary with Rodon/Cole on the way, but is he a future #2/3 SP, does his future lie in the pen? He’s been mighty impressive in the minors with the Yanks, and had a nice 3 innings in the WBC as well.

Brendan Gawlowski: Grounder-generating no. 3 for me.

Brendan Gawlowski: Once in a while those guys turn into Logan Webb

Oaktown Blues: Were you on Carlos Cortes at all as a prospect? Obviously he’s not this good but seems like his hit tool has really ticked up in the past 12 months

Brendan Gawlowski: I had barely heard of the guy, though in retrospect his performance in AAA offered a sign that he was a late-bloomer with big league ability.

Brendan Gawlowski: Guys like that make this fun

Brendan Gawlowski: And warrant going deep

RAH: Thanks for the doing the chat, and joining FG in the first place. FG Prospect coverage has always been at it’s best with Eric doesn’t carry the entire load and has someone to banter with. Speaking of… One of my favorite FG things was the podcast with Eric and Goldstein. Would you be open to talking prospects and player dev on the mic or live stream?

Brendan Gawlowski: You’re welcome. I think for Eric, the opportunity to do something besides lists all year was very appealing.

Brendan Gawlowski: As for podding/streaming… I’m open to it, one of a dozen or so things on my radar to explore once this cycle of lists wraps up.

JK: Thanks for all you do, your work and these chats are really enjoyable. Specifically thinking about Jhonny Level right now, but do scouts and industry pros ever forgive or dismiss a lower walk rate when the quality of contact is so good? I’m remembering a similar conversation around Kris Bryant as a prospect and while Level is no Bryant (yet), curious how that conversation can get shaped.

Brendan Gawlowski: Nobody is particularly worried about Level’s walk rate right now.

Brendan Gawlowski: He can be a little aggressive. You’d like to see the approach mature as he gets older. I’ve seen enough good takes from him to think it’s possible.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s also a teenager dominating Low-A. That’s the big thing.

chuck: Please address franklin arias

Brendan Gawlowski: “Hello Franklin Arias”

drplantwrench: any word on whats going on with Kyren Paris? i remember the MVP level few weeks he was having last year, and was hoping hed get another shot

Brendan Gawlowski: Checking with a source on whether there’s an injury

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t really think he can hit

strudel: Is Alex McCoy turning himself into a prospect?

Brendan Gawlowski: He’ll be in the 35+ section. 70 power, one note profile.

Brendan Gawlowski: Nice find for SD. Small school NDFA

Jim: The Red Sox just called up Chad Tracy from AAA to manage in the show. How different is managing in AAA vs the majors? One is focused on development, while the other is focused on winning games.

Brendan Gawlowski: Very different. The experience managing a bullpen, even one with a lot of pre-planned activity tends to be useful, though.

Brendan Gawlowski: Some of the other in-game stuff will present challenges. Coordinating with the video room on challenges, etc. Thought they had a play they should have reviewed in Tracy’s first game, for instance.

Brendan Gawlowski: Far more importantly: Entirely different media environment and personalities to manage

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s walking into a turbulent situation too. I’m sure he’s excited for the challenge, but the degree of difficulty here is pretty high.

Ryan: How difficult is it to project the transition for DSL to the states or A ball? Has data and video improved quite a bit over the recent years? Does it still entail a lot of guesswork?

Brendan Gawlowski: Never scouted the DSL but from what I can gather, the jump from the DSL to the ACL/FCL is not as large as the complex to A ball.

Brendan Gawlowski: Data/video much better on the team side than public

Brendan Gawlowski: I have to stream hunt for complex video

Sir Nerdlington: Would love your advice. My son (’28 6’2″ 175lb LHH catcher) is going to his first showcase this summer. He’ll be fine-ish on the metrics, but he won’t be an obvious stud. His standout skills are more the slow burn variety that appear in-game over time. What’s the best way to show those types of things to college coaches?

Brendan Gawlowski: Find environments where those abilities will stand out more and where coaches will be around. Go to catching camps run by college coaches in the area if you haven’t already

They Call Me Mr Tibbs: James Tibbs III has had a pretty loud start to the season. Do you see anything there as sustainable to move him from the estimation of platoon player to every day regular? Do you think it’s likely he even gets a shot at the bigs in the Dodgers organization, or more likely a deadline trade piece for them this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: He could be an everyday guy. I’d just be speculating on whether he’s a deadline piece, obviously it’s a hard lineup to break into

Kwanbelievable: I find myself somewhat frequently in conversations about top 100 prospects where I do the equivalent of shrugging and saying it’s anybody’s guess if he’ll actually live up to the pedigree. Obviously prospect rankings are helpful as a rough guideline of what a player *could* be, but is there a better way to think about it than there’s basically a 50/50 chance a given player actually does something meaningful?

Brendan Gawlowski: You’ve probably got a feel for which prospects are safer and which ones are ranked because they might go “boom” even if it’s not all that likely that they actually do it.

Brendan Gawlowski: Statistically speaking, for the most part, only the very best prospects are a 50/50 to become regulars

Brendan Gawlowski: If you’re strictly trying to predict outcomes, below that 55 FV tier, you’re mostly shading down from 50/50.

Eric: Any concern about Arroyo’s (Sea) slow start?  He struggled a bit in his first taste of AA last year and doesn’t seem to have adapted in the second go aound…at least so far

Brendan Gawlowski: Really hard place to hit. Twenty-one with an average line in April at AA. Seems fine.

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s not exciting when seemingly half the top 100 is going nuts out of the gate but it’s still April.

Guest: Brendan, if you were the NYY how would you manage the Elmer Rodriguez/ Carlos Lagrange situation? Elmer got called up today and will start tomorrow. Do you see either of them moving to the bullpen in their future?

Brendan Gawlowski: Elmer is a starter, Lagrange a reliever for me.

Sparticus: Do ballclubs treat scouts and scouting departments, or are there significant differences in how they are organized and managed?  Is there a sense that one MLB scouting department is more ‘prestigious’ than another?  How much personnel movement is there among scouting and development programs?  In other words, how long does it take before an innovation developed by one team is adopted by others?

Brendan Gawlowski: Each department does things a little differently. Some have their scouts cover orgs top to bottom, others do it more regionally. Some switch things around every couple years. Some departments lean on their scouts heavily, others just use their reports to feed the model.

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s tricky to move between departments based on how contracts work in the game. You basically have to either let your contract expire or be head-hunted by another org.

Sporter’s Five Horses: Thoughts on Andrew Alvarez? Was a little surprised he didn’t merit a mention in Eric’s write-up of the Nats…or maybe the rest of the Nats pitching staff is so bad that I’m seeing roses

Brendan Gawlowski: Depth starter, up and down type

Billy G: With the advent of ABS, how does that impact your evaluation and projection of command and control? Are you able to get any sort of approximation for the lower levels? Or just assume that guys BB rates will creep up due to it once they hit AAA / MLB? Will teams make sure pitchers hit AAA so they get experience with the system? Ignore it on the dev path?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t know if it impacts it at all, really. They can either throw it over or they can’t; they can either hit spots well or they can’t.

The 6ix: Ben Joyce: why is nobody talking about him as the Angels’ closer in a month or two?

Brendan Gawlowski: Because he’s hurt and has a career BB/9 over four?

Philip: So uh is ethan salas finally heading in right direction again? Third straight game with a homer

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s funny how fast stuff changes

Brendan Gawlowski: And obviously these questions aren’t coming from the same people

Brendan Gawlowski: But literally last week

Brendan Gawlowski: There are questions on whether the Padres ruined Salas, whether Salas is a 40 now, etc.

Brendan Gawlowski: Then he has a hot week

Brendan Gawlowski: And now he’s a 19 year old catcher with a plus glove and a 139 wRC+ in AA

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s maybe the starkest reminder that April is wild and that priors should change slowly

guest: Any surprises so far on the Padres list? I feel like they always generate one or two guys out of nowhere

Brendan Gawlowski: There will be a big surprise and it’s not a fun one

EV: When is planned to update 2026 Draft list? Any advance of risers so far?

Brendan Gawlowski: After the lists

RAH: Disappointed to read about Sean Gamble’s issues. Looking back at reports during draft season, some people were already identifying issues with contact, while others (ahem, MLB, ahem) said he a knack for finding the barrel and gave him a 55. Do you think there is something specific with him that some scouts were missing, or does it show more of the variance of a young players game and it depends on when you saw him play? I feel like this is different that a guy like Ethan Holliday where everyone knows the hurdle to be cleared and it’s a matter of opinion on how to project the player and his ability to improve.

Brendan Gawlowski: As a general matter… Evaluators are wrong all the time. I guarantee that you’ll be able to look at lists I’ve published this cycle and find tool grades and FV’s that look pretty bad in a year. It’s just part of the deal when you’re trying to predict the future.

Brendan Gawlowski: As for Gamble specifically, I didn’t see him back then so it’s tough to say.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m sure there were days when he showed barrel feel and made good contact

HairyKnapp: Highest upside, Ryan Sloan, Thomas White, or River Ryan?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sloan

EV: How is Y Castillo performing so far? any updates on him given your aggressive Top100 assignment?

Brendan Gawlowski: Looks good. Like the way he’s swinging, numbers have started to follow. Good defense at short. Trending the way we’d hoped. Still going to be a slower burn profile.

Jon: Who among the Royals prospects from your ranking do you think have the best chance to outperform their current FV?

Brendan Gawlowski: Jensen clearly has the inside track here, since he’s basically doing it at the moment.

Brendan Gawlowski: Freddy Contreras sticks out there too, I was tempted to get very aggressive with that young man.

Ty: I asked Ben this yesterday and he encouraged me to ask you: As a Braves fan, it seems a number of somewhat well-regarded prospects have turned into excellent big leaguers despite getting only modest prospect traction (Michael Harris, Drake Baldwin, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, William Contreras, etc). Meanwhile the system has been ranked on the low end for the past 5-6 years while churning out fantastic results. I know fangraphs will revisit previous top 100 prospect lists years later to see how the projections and opinions fared. Has there ever been a re-ranking of team farm systems years later to see how the evaluations fared at the time? I wonder if there are teams consistently outproducing their rankings, and if there are theories as to why that may be happening

Brendan Gawlowski: Some of this happens with the Angels too, inevitable when using an FV model with an org that promotes extremely quickly. Harris in particular is a good case study, because Eric updated his FV at midseason as he was shooting through the minors, but it was never reflected in an offseason list because he graduated so quickly.

Brendan Gawlowski: To my knowledge, he’s never gone back and done that kind of exercise with individual farm systems

Brendan Gawlowski: The more aggressive we are with younger players, the more we’re likely to capture the shooting stars in a system like Atlanta’s.

Brendan Gawlowski: But there are going to be some misses with that approach, too.

STiVo: Anything look overly concerns from Konnor Griffin in the majors this year?  Er, other than the results.

Brendan Gawlowski: No, he’s 20 and treading water. Fine/to be expected.

HairyKnapp: Has Chase Dollander figured it out? Who is a good comp for him?

Brendan Gawlowski: Lower slot seems to have helped the fastball substantially. Excited for him and COL.

Wood: Any concerns over Kade Anderson? Multiple starts with only 6 or less Ks

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m pretty sure this is tongue in cheek and if so, well done

Accudart: Luis Mey seems to be getting control issues under wrap, call up soon?

Brendan Gawlowski: Is he? Delivery looks similar year over year.

Accudart: I live 3 hours south of Bradenton thinking I should make the effort to see Seth Hernandez pitch before a promotion. Tha ks for your chats..

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes, go now.

Ponopoly: Lost in the Murakami hype is that Montgomery and Vargas have also been pretty good. Do you think they will be building blocks for the next good Sox team?

Brendan Gawlowski: Murakami’s short deal complicates that somewhat. I don’t know if Vargas is a building block, more of a useful player on a good run? Montgomery could be… If nothing else, they and Schultz should give you a lot of hope that you’re out of the desert and watching decent baseball again, at least.

Matt: Hey Brendan, following up from last week! No new homers but a couple more xbh and so far more swing and miss than last year…any notes or visuals of a swing tweak or mechanical changes from Ching-Hsien Ko?

Brendan Gawlowski: Thanks for following up… Still seeing a lot of inside out swings, getting the bat out in front a little more often than last year, mostly on soft stuff

Brendan Gawlowski: I came away mildly encouraged

HairyKnapp: Why only 50 FV for Ryan Waldschmidt? The dude has mashed at every level.

Brendan Gawlowski: He was close to a 55. Righty corner bats really have to fash

Farhandrew Zaidman: Hey Brendan! Has Alex Freeland’s 2026 results changed your eval of him in any meaningful way? Seems like a dude who should just hit L full time, no?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not really, that was always a possibility…

Punk in Drublic: What is the realistic timetable we see Jesus Made in Milwaukee?

Brendan Gawlowski: 2027

Alex: Is Ryan Wideman a more legitimate prospect cutting down his K% or is it still too early for any conclusions?

Brendan Gawlowski: High probability bench piece

Wood: How does video access work on the team side? Did the Pirates have some sort of stream sharing agreements with the other 29 teams for their affiliates or do they use their own in-person video setup for each game?

Brendan Gawlowski: Video sharing agreements

Silly Little Guy: A lot of heat comes on Rob Thomson for the Phillies failure, but more heat is starting to come on Dave Dombrowski. Do you think he has done a good job of building up the Phillies farm system? It feels like they still haven’t had a lot of success developing anyone

Brendan Gawlowski: They’re on a typical Dombrowski trajectory. Competitive for years but when it goes, it goes

Brendan Gawlowski: I think the guy’s a Hall of Famer but when you push the chips in, you’re going to need a beat to build back up when the old players age out of their primes

OI OI OI: Sorry for another Bazzana Q, but there has been a lot of hay made over perceived “passivity” in his approach what with minimal swing%, minimal whiff%, but still a modest amount of strikeouts despite that and (until recently) little production in the upper minors. Just smoke or outback brushfire?

Brendan Gawlowski: This kind of skillset tends to get a rude awakening in the big leagues. But, part of that is because a lot of guys with that skill set don’t have as much talent as Bazzana has. We’re obviously on the lower end on him but we still see him as an everyday guy and an above average hitter.

Guest: Has Franklin Arias unlocked a skill that has lead to an increase in game power? I think I read a blurb that he’s pulling the ball more. Do you have any dope on his stupendous first month of baseball?

Brendan Gawlowski: Understandably a lot of Arias questions. I don’t have anything for you at the moment but he’s one who will get a fresh look for the Boston list and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a 60 by that point.

Uncle Spike: How are you feeling about Gage Workman?  He’s been given a 20 on his hit tool and a 70 in the field.  Not sure if it’s just SSS variance but his contact % is up and he’s hitting the ball with authority, third in the minors with a 94.4 MPH Adj. EV.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s definitely got power… I put on some tape in the background and some of the markers in his swing that led to the low hit grade are still there. I’m intrigued by the additional contact though, maybe he’s doing a little better with soft stuff?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s also a few weeks in April; Spencer Jones has stretches where he strikes out a quarter of the time too.

Fletcher: Are the grades on the prospect lists solely the evaluation of the writer with the byline or are they a consensus evaluation of you, Eric, James, etc?

Brendan Gawlowski: Almost always the writer with the byline.

Brendan Gawlowski: For the J2 guys in the ’26 class, they’re all Eric’s.

Brendan Gawlowski: Even if they’re on my or James’s list. We try to mention that in the blurb when it happens.

Brendan Gawlowski: Occasionally we’ll kick around an FV or a tool grade together but it’s the writer’s call ultimately.

Jason: What’s the balance between “he’s young and athletic enough to make this work” and “nobody can succeed long term with this profile?”

Brendan Gawlowski: Sliding scale based on how young/athletic, and how extreme the problem is

Brendan Gawlowski: There are some guys who look so helpless on spin that it looks like there’s a visual problem, and that’s really tough to project on

Brendan Gawlowski: Pretty rare to kill a guy for that at the complex level though

Booney: Saw Ethan Salas just homered for the third time in three days. Hard to believe he’s still only 19. Is the biggest thing for him just to amass a full, healthy ish season showcasing the type of promise he did a few years ago? Hard to imagine him reentering top 5-10 prospect status territory…but the age/package is still there

Brendan Gawlowski: A healthy season would do him a world of good

Brendan Gawlowski: He was held back in the 50 tier due to the injuries, guys who miss the year get bumped to the back of the line

Brendan Gawlowski: If he’s healthy and performing, he’ll rise up the list again

SCJH: Awhile back I asked Eric if there was an advantage for clubs like Arizona and Tampa having all of the complexes in their backyard and he answered with a resounding yes, because high-level personnel can get so many more in-person looks at players who stay down there. In a world where a lot of things can be done remotely would there be an argument for other teams to base all of their FO personnel who have any scouting role whatsoever out of their complex rather than in their home city?

Brendan Gawlowski: You’d never base all of your office at the complex, but all teams have plenty of PD personnel down there.

Bill Quinton McCracken: It’s still, uh, early, but Early hasn’t looked as sharp as last season. Anything to be concerned about?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think he was running hot at the end of last season. Long term more of a no. 3.

Sam Kulasingam: Am I doing enough to start looking like a legitimate major leaguer?

Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s see you keep this up at AA

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m still concerned about your lack of power

Brendan Gawlowski: Encouraged that you’re at least getting to what you’ve got pretty reliably

Mario: I’m sure SSS questions are annoying but SSS are when we need trained eyes like yours!

Brendan Gawlowski: I appreciate the compliment, I have to fight the impulse to get overly enthusiastic too.

Sal’s Mom: What guy has 100% convinced you he’s better than you thought last year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yunior Marte

Brendan Gawlowski: Added a split, throwing harder.

War2D2: re: Bazzana: the profile sounds Bregman-ish, is that reasonable? You think the Guards will eventually be happy with their pick, or do you think they’ll regret not going for a higher ceiling/lower floor lottery ticket? As an aside, drafting 1/1 in a draft like Bazzana’s where there’s no clear 1/1 must be incredibly stressful.

Brendan Gawlowski: Bregman had, what, a 70 hit tool and was a plus defender at third? Different category of player.

RAH: Woah, quite a tease on the Padres list? Makes me want to play the game Randall and his wife would do in This Is Us where they took turns saying the worst possible outcome that comes to mind.

Matt: Is the big surprise kruz being a 35+?

Brendan Gawlowski: Looks like you guys got started together

Brendan Gawlowski: (no, Kruz is not a 35+)

Guest: I am a big believer in signature pitching performances and adjusting my personal player rankings when a player has a singular game that is outstanding

Brendan Gawlowski: Luke Hochevar was the king of alternating these with, well, the rest of his career

Brendan Gawlowski: Back in 2009 he had a 13 strikeout game (back when that was jaw dropping) and an 80 pitch CG… in a year he had a 6.55 ERA

CrunchBerry: Bryce Eldridge on track for a 2026 promotion?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes

Farhandrew Zaidman: The Eagles drafted a player in the 7th round who has never played organized football…I imagine back in the day, an MLB team might spend a 50th round pick on someone like that. What’s the closest the MLB draft comes to that in modern times?

Brendan Gawlowski: It was easier do in the 50 round era. Shaq Thompson and Trey Griffey spring to mind.

Brendan Gawlowski: Undoubtedly there were others

Brendan Gawlowski: Couple nice stories about teams selecting prospects who had been badly injured late in the draft and giving them the star treatment for a day at the big league stadium

asdf: If you’re Seattle, and your home park seems to inflate strikeouts, do you intentionally target or train sinker heavy players or fourseam heavy players? It seems like they’ve trended sinker heavy lately but it’s not clear if that’s the park, they think it’s better value, or randomness.

Brendan Gawlowski: There are a lot of things you can do with that park. Turning Bryce Miller into a no. 3, at least for a bit, worked so well I’d be looking to do that again if I could

Darren: Benge (still technically a prospect!) looks bad so far.  Has your long term outlook changed on him?

Brendan Gawlowski: No.

Brendan Gawlowski: Also, you guys are on a heater today, I’ve never seen so many questions.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Roki radically shifted the seam orientation of the splitter – now 4+ ticks harder, 5 more inches of run, and (crucially) a zone rate in the 40s instead of 20s. Do we trust this is a real shift in future outcomes, or are we still monitoring for more data?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think that’s the main issue here

JhonnyS: What’s your worst scouting miss?

Brendan Gawlowski: Besides this?

Brendan Gawlowski: I thought Drew Romo was going to develop power, had a big grade on him

Brendan Gawlowski: I course corrected in my second look, but I was too low on Lawrence Butler to start with. Good lesson in giving athletes a lot of runway.

Brendan Gawlowski: You can’t write 500+ reports a year without some misses. Hopefully you learn from all of them.

Beer Thirty: Considering they are not completed projects and won’t be well in their early careers, which prospects do you think could be promoted right now and be productive in a full-time role with the parent club without hindering their development?

Brendan Gawlowski: Waldy

Brendan Gawlowski: Plenty of upper level arms

King Useless: Favorite Iris Murdoch novel?

Brendan Gawlowski: The Black Prince; yours?

Alex Remington: Speaking as an Atlanta fan, I’ve thought about this a lot and I think the reason that, in particular, Harris, Strider, and Schwellenbach overperformed the system’s reputation is just, simply, the pandemic. Not exactly a fluke, but we couldn’t know just how good they’d be. On the other hand, Drake Baldwin is just an old-fashioned player development success!

Brendan Gawlowski: Everybody on all sides deserves grace on pandemic era prospect projections for all the obvious reasons

Keith: Do you see one of your picks to click (Robert Arias) reaching the top 100 soon?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not yet, I was not as blown away as I was hoping when I turned on the tape. Still really like him, going to be a little more patient on that one.

Ben: I heard that the Braves don’t share prospect info with prospect evaluators and their prospects’ grading is lowered as a result?  Do you know if there is any truth there?

Brendan Gawlowski: I found their folks forthcoming and pleasant to engage with.

Sal’s Mom: SSS but Mey is at 2.45 bb/9

Brendan Gawlowski: I am more swayed by the look and the ‘SSS’ than the number right now

Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe he’s figured it out, I’m not promising he hasn’t. But I wouldn’t bet that way right now.

CrunchBerry: Any updates on Colt Emerson? It seemed like he was on the precipice of a Griffin-esque promotion at least the way people were talking about him

Brendan Gawlowski: I think it was clear to all parties that the extension was not a carrot to get on the big league club right away

Brendan Gawlowski: As in, I don’t think Cole was surprised he wasn’t promoted right away

Wood: It makes me so jealous that many fans can go see local minor league ball with relative ease. Take advantage if you’re able. I almost moved to Vancouver and the main draw other than work was access to the Canadians – signed, an Ottawa native.

Brendan Gawlowski: And a lovely ballpark, too

OW: Better baseball name in the Padres organization: Kash Mayfield or Jagger Haynes?

Brendan Gawlowski: Hmmm. Jagger

Brendan Gawlowski: Don’t sleep on Truitt Madonna.

Obligatory Ronny Cruz Mention: I read an article on BP recently talking about live looks and how the time spent and potential biases introduced usually make them no longer worth doing when so much high quality video and data is available.  Do you have any thoughts on this? How do you and Eric approach doing live looks on particular players

Brendan Gawlowski: Link? I disagree, I get a lot out of my live looks.

Guest: Who are some complex guys to watch since it starts on Saturday? (Especially any Blue Jays)

Brendan Gawlowski: Well, your big guy got a late bump to Low-A (Sanchez) so not him

Brendan Gawlowski: Cook can absolutely fly, I’ll be curious to see if he can turn that into better SB numbers than he had in college

Brendan Gawlowski: Piasentin is a very low info player for us, so he’s intriguing for that reason

Brendan Gawlowski: Moon stands out on the pitching side

Brendan Gawlowski: But really anyone on our blue jays list would get my juices flowing

War2D2: Although I live on the West coast I’m a fan of an NLC team, so it has surprised me that the Rockies appear to be a normal-bad team instead of a historically bad team. Was it really that easy to add what appears to be about 20 wins to their total (to be clear: still a 90-loss club)? And was the previous regime so incompetent that they couldn’t figure out how to clear that seemingly insignificant hurdle?

Brendan Gawlowski: the Dollander breakout plus an infusion of competent pitching has helped a lot

Brendan Gawlowski: They may still lose 100 games, of course

Opifijikl: What have you heard about Chad Tracy (the manager)?

Brendan Gawlowski: Very little you haven’t, I imagine. I tend to think the continuity with guys who came through the system is a good thing. But obviously it’s case by case and I’m not privy to details there.

Farhandrew Zaidman: “I think the guy’s a Hall of Famer but when you push the chips in, you’re going to need a beat to build back up when the old players age out of their primes” – please don’t tell this to Andrew Friedman, thx

Brendan Gawlowski: Willie Mays and Scott Rolen are both HOF’ers

Uncle Spike: Follow up on Gage Workman.  What are some of those markers in his swing that concern you?

Brendan Gawlowski: grooved uphill path

Depressed Mets Fan: How reliable are stuff metrics in the PCL given the mix of elevations? There are a lot of stadiums pretty high up and if Coors has taught us anything it’s that thin air makes pitches behave differently; I assume teams account for this, but how do they do that?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not sure how the models account for it, but in my experience the analytical staffs are more than capable of finding a way to do it.

Brendan Gawlowski: It was a challenge for me whenever I did high-altitude coverage. Not a factor I’m accustomed to accounting for

Luke Hochevar: I have a World Series ring, Brendan, stop hitting me with the strays!

Brendan Gawlowski: yeah, sorry, that was rude. He had a nice career and a bizarre 2009 season.

Guest: Sidney Ponson was kinda like that too. 5 CG and 2 SHO in a year with a 5 something ERA

Brendan Gawlowski: Mike Montgomery and Jeremy Sowers both had back to back shutouts

Lord Thunder: Will Jonny Farmelo one day play in MLB?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes

A Boy Named Yu: Would you rather supremely over-estimate a prospect or supremely under-estimate one?

Brendan Gawlowski: Over

Jay: Re Drew Romo, I was at a game he caught in Colorado, and never have I ever seen someone with such a bad throwing motion. Like it looked like he was doing throwing drills just to flip the ball back to the pitcher. Was his motion ALWAYS like that or did he get the yips?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sharp eye. Not always like that.

Guest: “if you’re never playing a 10-2 offsuit” poker player too? not a random hand to those who are!

Brendan Gawlowski: I barely play and I’m terrible.

IFAs confuse me: Are Murakami, Okamoto, Imai still considered “prospects” due to insufficient MLB time? Obviously they’re not in the same vein as most prospects but the actual criteria just leave me puzzled

Brendan Gawlowski: No, guys who are free agents from Japan are not eligible

Farhandrew Zaidman: how do you measure “baseball IQ”, and to what extent does it shift an evaluation?

Brendan Gawlowski: you want to see a guy paying attention and taking advantage of opportunities the game gives him. There are a lot of things to look for. Someone locked in to every pitch, infielders who can read a ground ball quickly, guys who always know where to go with the ball, hitters who can read a pitcher or make an adjustment mid-AB or mid-game.

Funny Business: It’s obviously a fool’s errand to project this seriously, but who among this year’s crop of top 100 prospects do you see still in MLB in 20 years?

Brendan Gawlowski: Josuar is the youngest which by default gives him the best chance I think?

AW: Pirates recent run of good homegrown pitching more player evaluation or player development?

Brendan Gawlowski: why not both?

Brendan Gawlowski: well-functioning pipeline from identification to acquisition to development to deployment.

Follow up on Luke Hechovar: Much larger sample size but both Mike Minor and Lance Lynn had simultaneous 6 WAR seasons in the juiced ball year of 2019 on a rather unremarkable Rangers squad; not sure how that happened

Brendan Gawlowski: Yeah that was weird. Lynn at least had done something like that before

Billy G: Do you think Kahlil Watson will get a chance in MLB this year or spend it all in AAA?

Brendan Gawlowski: He’ll get a chance, possibly soon

Lucas: Should I be concerned about Andrew Fischer running a contact rate in the 50’s and a K-rate north of 35%?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’m a little concerned, yeah

VampWeekAtBern: Does Pablo Nunez (Reds) have any chance of becoming anything close to a Luis Arraez of the outfield?

Brendan Gawlowski: Arraez is an uncomp’able player imo. The Jamie Moyer of his generation.

Aaron Judge’s Golden Sombrero: Is Sean Keys showing anything in his extremely hot start at AA that would suggest he is more than a 40 FV going forward?

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s hot enough that it’s worth diving into deeper and it’s on my list for next week if you wanna ask again then. My instinct is no, he has the skill set to do this at AA, and all the swing and miss it’s coming with suggests he’s in a similar spot relative to the overview

Brendan Gawlowski: And now it is my turn to ask you all a question. I will not publish any responses, but I am curious for reader feedback. What do you like in these chats or the system overviews? What do you wish you saw more of? Do you have any other comments? I’ll leave the queue open for a few minutes if you have any thoughts.

Brendan Gawlowski: Otherwise, I’m going to call it for the day. Thanks again for all the questions, we’ll do it again next week.