Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 7/14/26

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody from steamy Philly

Brendan Gawlowski: I just got back to my hotel from the coffee shop, please give me a couple minutes to get settled, my apologies

Brendan Gawlowski: Okay, thanks for your patience

liljebbie10: Do you think Seth Hernandez will end the year in AA? If so, it seems that end of next year is in play if he stays healthy? Is he the top pitching prospect in baseball at the moment?

Brendan Gawlowski: 50/50, don’t think it impacts his big league arrival time one way or the other

rainingmozzarella: Hello! Sad Dbacks fan here. Am I wrong to be underwhelmed by the team’s draft? It seems they targeted a lot of safety and low upside players after the first two picks. I was especially unimpressed by their third and fourth rounders.

Brendan Gawlowski: It wasn’t my favorite draft either, honestly. We have to defer to their work to some degree because we just don’t have the time/capacity to analyze much beyond the top couple guys, and obviously our impressions today can change quickly in pro ball. But, yeah, not at the top of my list.

MF Luder: Am I drinking too much Brewers Kool-Aid, or does Josh Knoth look like a great pick?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yeah, good athlete, very good feel to spin it. Want to see how it all looks as he gets further stretched out, but he’ll rise on the Brewers list. Probably going to wind up just short of the T100 update.

Big Fan: Your Day 1 recap called the Braves picks “pound for pound, the most interesting class”.  Now that we’ve seen who they picked on Day 2, what would you add?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll credit Eric for that one, he mostly handled the Braves… But yeah, we’ll see if they sign Barker, Harper, and Brenner but there’s upside here. ATL drafts well.

warpath: Do you believe in the Endy Rodriguez resurgence? He looked pretty lost the last couple of years, but all of the sudden he is hitting the ball very hard and in the air regularly. Lot of red on that Savant page

Brendan Gawlowski: I believe in his talent more than his capacity to catch regularly and stay healthy

MF Luder: Do you think Kayson Cunningham’s hit tool was overstated? Or is it still too early to say?

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s got a very good hit tool. Whether there’s enough else there to be more than a quality utility guy is the question

Chase Shiflet: Hi Brendan! Feeling a little despondent that the Rays chose Emerson over Lackey in the draft. Are there any reasons why I shouldn’t feel like this is Beckham over Posey 2.0?

Brendan Gawlowski: The Rays are absolutely thrilled with this pick

Brendan Gawlowski: Cartwheels and backflips

Brendan Gawlowski: if that helps

Brendan Gawlowski: And I would just say that comparing two guys playing now to two guys who were drafted 18 years ago doesn’t make a whole lot of sense

mills9lane: Are you concerned how quickly Carter Jensen slumped after his torrid June? What kind of slash line will he have in his peak years?

Brendan Gawlowski: No; something slightly better than this across the board.

Brendan Gawlowski: One thing to keep in mind with players, especially rookies: The guys who started in April are going to have damper numbers than the guys who got called up and have played a disproportionate amount of their season with the livelier ball. DeLauter, Jensen, Weatherholt, McGonigle etc. suffer a little by comparison.

brendonkuhn: Any big arrow up names in the Jays system for you this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Perry, who wasn’t on the radar at all after a very wild ’24 and missing last year, is probably a top 10 guy for them now.

Brendan Gawlowski: I should’ve mentioned him but even if I had, it woulda been just as an HM

Brendan Gawlowski: Keys would be up the list a little bit too

thykingdomecome: I understand that ex tension is important in perceived velocity, but are there certain pitch types that play up with less extension. Who has succeeded with minimal extension and why. Are there guys who should be short striders. Which prospects are these?

Brendan Gawlowski: Thank you for the article idea

Darren Knowles: Gotten any reports on on the Royals’ Angeibel Gomez in the DSL?  The numbers look good and Royals fans are looking for any positivity they can find.  Thanks!

Brendan Gawlowski: People really seem to like him, he looks like the real deal

Darren Knowles: If you were running a draft, what would your philosophy be on how to divide your picks and your pool $ between pitchers/hitters?

Brendan Gawlowski: I would take the best player available

Brendan Gawlowski: No quotas

Beer:30: It was mentioned during a game the other day that Jordan Walker “keeps his bat in the zone for so long.” To what is that referring to? Is it a plane his bat takes or entering level? I’ve heard it often but never really understood how “zone time” could change hitter to hitter.

Brendan Gawlowski: Think of it as the barrel staying on plane

Brendan Gawlowski: Are you on plane for a comparatively long time? Or do you have a steeper swing where you need to intersect bat and ball just right or you miss entirely?

toshi: Do you still think R Sloan has higher ceiling than K Anderson? Thanks.

Brendan Gawlowski: I do.

Jonathan Adelman: When you worked for the Pirates, what did you do during the draft’s Day 1?  I’m naively assuming you weren’t in the war room. Were you texting with anyone who was? Were you and other scouts chatting as it all unfolded? Was it just another business day?

Brendan Gawlowski: I was a pro scout so I had diddly squat to do with the draft

Brendan Gawlowski: Other than flying to PIT to make sure the Pirates took Skenes and Griffin, of course

canderson20: What team had your favorite draft? Online I’m seeing a lot of people point to the Cardinals draft as being particularly good but I’m always curious if there’s differing viewpoints.

Brendan Gawlowski: The Rays. They got who I thought was the best player and then also one of my favorite pitchers in Blair

StuShea: Hi Brendan! As a baseball professional, what’s the recent change in the current game that you like the least? The most? Thanks.

Brendan Gawlowski: A lot of both. Most: I think the clock is great, I like ABS, three batter minimum for relievers doesn’t get talked about but I do not miss a parade of one out relievers at all… MILB.tv upgrades have been great for me/fans of prospects… the six game minor league schedule is also a positive, probably more for people in my line of work than average fans, but still… There’s a lot

Brendan Gawlowski: Least: some of the gameplay stuff. I think a lively ball is bad for the sport’s biodiversity… I cringe every time a team brings in a wall for the same reason. If you want the ball in play more, if you want to see the good athletes doing things, making it easier to homer and increasing the consequences of surrendering contact are the wrong ways to go about it.

Dwight Griffin: Kendry Chourio pumping 98 to 99 at Futures Game. Top 20 prospect soon?

Brendan Gawlowski: Probably not that high. I think he’s got a power breaking ball in him, and when that shows up we can start talking about that tier of prospect.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s also not going to hold anything like that kind of velo in starts

Tyler Banks: I know the consensus on Alex Lodise has soured some based on his slow start. But now he has had a 160 wrC+ in his past 25 games while slugging .673. Does this change the perspective on him more?

Brendan Gawlowski: No, I’m more concerned about how his measurable power is far lower in pro ball than in college

David (formerly Sonoma State): To answer your question from a few weeks ago, yes it’s me. I’m now 40 years old with two kids. Was wild seeing you cite the pod as inspiration for getting into scouting. Brought me back…

Brendan Gawlowski: There’s a story in there somewhere, I’m sure

Graham Lewis: You guys working on any Day 2/UDFA stuff?

Brendan Gawlowski: Eric might have an odds and ends wrapup piece but don’t quote me on that

JayGray007: I found myself labelling Derek Curiel as “low ceiling” and then decided to challenge myself on that.   The instinct is “he’s a little guy who is probably just a hit tool + defense play” but like… why can’t the alternative read be “he’s thin and is about to enter a professional strength and diet program, and also he had good exit velos.  This guy has ceiling too.”   Do you have any interesting commentary on the boiling down of guys to ceiling and floor and/or it’s remotely useful to attempt to attach those types of labels to these players?  Anything interesting to specifically say about Curiel on these grounds?

Brendan Gawlowski: I assume that’s the Pirates perspective here, and they’ll (rightly, I think) assume that they’re as well positioned as just about anyone to build strength

Brendan Gawlowski: I think it’s a defensible selection, obviously we didn’t have him their on our board but it was a flat draft after the top 4, lot of justifiable directions.

Bacterun: How much does ‘motor’ affect a players grade or when does it affect a grade since its likely case by case? You mentioned in the future games writeup that De Paula has a low motor, how much is that holding him back? Is it a big reason for this lack luster defensive grades and in theory if he put more effort into running balls down he could be a good defender?

Brendan Gawlowski: You can’t help but notice. From a talent perspective, I’m a little less turned off by it than some, I know people who are pretty out on guys like that as a default. I tend to think if they hit, everything else takes care of itself. They’re generally not my favorite players to watch as a fan, but that’s a separate matter. Like, I would prefer to watch Roldy Brito play than De Paula, but I wouldn’t rank Brito ahead of the guy just because of that.

Brendan Gawlowski: As for your second question, it’s hard to say how much more is in there, but what he’s put on tape is unimpressive

rossredcay: Is Dylan Jordan’s command as bad as the BB rate makes it seem?  What exactly are the Angels doing different with their MILB pitcher dev this year (it seems like its working).  I want to say I’ve seen you talk about this, but I can’t remember the specifics.

Brendan Gawlowski: No, certainly not long term. I’m surprised he’s walking as many guys as he has, but he’s also constantly in deep counts because guys are struggling to make contact.

nancy rules: Any eta on the T100 update?

Brendan Gawlowski: I was hoping for yesterday or today but that became unfeasible when I realized just how much work was needed on the draft/Futures recaps. Hopefully this week, Eric and I are working on it.

warpath: Your best bet for first 2026 draftee to debut?

Brendan Gawlowski: Just a guess but I’ll say Roch. Logan Hughes is my sleeper

war2d2: Brendan! Am I being a little too Pollyanna that I’m pretty happy with what the Cubs were able to do with a pretty low draft slot? Townsend seems like he could be a quick mover, and Sorrell seems like a Caissie type that was worth a lotto ticket.

Brendan Gawlowski: Loved the arms, really scared of the bats

Kevin Dyke: Regarding the White Sox, does it seem like the organization is making progress at joining the 21st century with regards to prospect evaluation?

Brendan Gawlowski: And development

lmb2020: Oh that extension question was in my head this weekend. Doesn’t more extension give a breaker less distance to break? Or does it make it look like it is breaking later? How does extension affect spin rate?

Brendan Gawlowski: You hit on the question I’m most curious to dive into

Brendan Gawlowski: The extra room to break can be advantageous

Brendan Gawlowski: As far as I know, I don’t think extension affects spin rates? But thanks for another question to ask the experts if I ever get around to this piece…

cosmichero: What went wrong for Dylan Crews? Was he overrated as a prospect? It seems like he missing the strong trait that he should be able to lean in the MLB while he improves on the edges, unless that trait is just overall high-end athleticism

Brendan Gawlowski: A lot of his power/damage was to the opposite field and it hasn’t translated to pro ball

grandbranyan: There are 27 players in all of MiLB with at least 350 PA and a 148 wRC+ since last year. How many of the five Brewers to make the cut can you name?

Brendan Gawlowski: At the risk of looking like a dope… Vaughn, Contreras, Turang, Chourio… Mitchell?

Tyler Banks: What does you mean by measurable power re: Lodise? Exit velo, barrels? He’s on pace for 30+ HR and nearly 30 SB while playing (from what I understand) very good defense?

Brendan Gawlowski: College: 107.2 EV90, 113 max
2025 pro: 102 EV90, 109 max
2026 pro: 103.5 EV90, 109.8 max

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t really care how many homers a guy hits in the Sally this year

leoneforthird: Fringe prospect question Josh Caron has looked good from a batting line perspective at Everett this year.  Have you seen him play and if so what does his defense look like?  Any chance he moves into the 40-45 tier this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe into the 35+ range. Glove is just fair.

Glixie: If Trout wants out of Angels, is this crackpot 3 AM three-team trade framework workable? LAD acquires Skubal (ofc), DET acquires Neto and Trout (with Angels covering enough of Trout’s remaining salary for 2027+ to balance Neto’s surplus), LAA gets Quintero / a non-de Paula dodgers youngster

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think you’re in la-la land but too many moving parts here, devil in the details on the money.

mills9lane: Is Hunter Goodman just good? Or does the bottom fall out eventually?

Brendan Gawlowski: Both

cc007: Eric Hartman, Tate Southisene, and John Gil get most of the attention at A+ for the Braves – Owen Carey kind of flying under the radar. Was his outlook?

Brendan Gawlowski: Tracking nicely along with the offseason report

grandbranyan: Thanks, but MiLB for the Brewers question, five minor leaguers…

Brendan Gawlowski: oh jeez no idea then

Justin Krupp: Dakota Jordan, something there or the swing and miss too alarming?

Brendan Gawlowski: There’s something there, I think it’s more likely to play in a 4th OF capacity than as a regular

sliderinthedirt: You said you were making a separate post for the two Giants at the prospect game. Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Brendan Gawlowski: Well, not just for them, but I have accumulated some ‘notes from the field’ type stuff and at 12:30 and 3600 words I decided to punt them to next time

Brendan Gawlowski: I wouldn’t read anything into it beyond my personal logistics

Justin Krupp: Giants draft thoughts?

Brendan Gawlowski: I thought they did great, they got the best pitcher in the draft, Bolemon is obviously very interesting… Bonds is not just a feel good legacy pick, there are real tools there

cc007: How does the potential lockout next year (potential for missed games) affect teams view on the trade deadline? Joe Ryan for example – how would a team value his 1.5 years of control vs a rental

Brendan Gawlowski: Not much, I don’t think. But I’m on Team Optimism regarding how this lockout ultimately plays out

grandbranyan: Figured Fischer, Adams, Adamczewski would be the easy three for the Brewers but other two are Josiah Ragsdale and Juan Martinez (also has a 1.41 BB/K and 46 SB / 5 CS).

Brendan Gawlowski: I’d have been guessing a long time before I got to Ragsdale and Martinez. I should’ve thought about Ragsdale, odds are if a guy starts popping up in the chat more often, he’s performing.

rickdugo3000: Should Franklin arias be ranked ahead of de vries and made? Some of your reports/notes including from the futures game, plus obviously the year he’s having, are making me think you don’t think it’s a crazy wuestion

Brendan Gawlowski: Not crazy at all. He’s at least ahead of Leo for me.

Phillip Denny: Mike Sirota is obviously not going to run a 20% BB rate when he gets called up (eventually), but does his stellar run this year give you confidence he can be a perennial .350+ OBP dude?

Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe a little bit. I don’t know that I’d feel significantly different if his walk rate was 12% instead of 20% though.

Brendan Gawlowski: There’s a point of diminishing returns with a minor league walk rate

reyrh: If you were put in charge of the draft, when and where would you hold it, and over how many days?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’d have it June. I don’t know if tying it in with the CWS is a good idea but I might at least try it once to find out…

Phillip Denny: Another Dodger OF prospect Q – Josue De Paula cut his K rate from 20% last year mostly in A+ to 13% this year in AA. The power also took a meaningful step forward. What is he doing differently?

Brendan Gawlowski: His raw hasn’t changed much at all… His hard hit is up a little bit, but it’s up overall. I think the bigger thing with him is that he’s already got above average power and there don’t seem to be holes in his swing.

Brendan Gawlowski: So, the impressive part is that he’s maintaining power while making more contact against better competition

Brendan Gawlowski: If there’s one theme I wish I could convey more explicitly: we all have to take things like homers, slugging, ISO, whatever with a big grain of salt this year. One source told me that their team estimates the ball is flying 8-10% further this year. It’s like everyone gets to play in Coors all the time and with a metal bat. Of course their power numbers are up.

lbowman1: Saw Duno had multiple 80MPH bat speed swings at the Futures game. He’s got crazy raw doesn’t he

Brendan Gawlowski: That he does

Brendan Gawlowski: 109 90th, 115 max holy crap

crossedup: I assume the Mariners draft is similar to the dbacks of “a bit boring/under whelming” we’ll see how they actually do.

Brendan Gawlowski: I am in the unenviable position of looking at a high level Mariners pitching draft pick and thinking “I don’t see it that way”

Baseball Learner: Austin Wells, initially bat first, threw himself into catching and bottomed out as a hitter. Could the two things be related?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s a really hard position. You could say the same thing about Henry Davis.

Brendan Gawlowski: And you never know what kind of nagging injuries those guys are dealing with

Baseball Learner: Yankees system looks sparse, do you think they have enough to land something big at the deadline?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sure. They have a consensus top 10-20 prospect, that by itself puts them in the mix for just about anyone

lmb2020: Where and when will Trevor Condon debut? Does the FCL make sense?

Brendan Gawlowski: Complete non answer but it really just depends when he signs, for all we know complex ball might be over by the time he’s ready to play

Fangraphs Man: What level do you expect Roch and Lackey to be assigned to? Is Hi-A too aggressive for polished college bats immediately?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think High-A is too aggressive. It’s also fine if they want to send them to the complex or Low-A to get their feet wet for a week.

Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe in Lackey’s case there’s an argument for sending him to just one spot this summer, keep the number of new pitchers to work with to a dull roar

Phillip Denny: Before cutting bait on a pitcher that fizzles out at AA/AAA, how often does a team ask them to do something crazy like drop down to submarine or try learning a knuckleball?

Brendan Gawlowski: The knuckleball, basically never

Brendan Gawlowski: Pitchers are otherwise usually trying new stuff — pitch grips, release points, arm slot tweaks — all the time

oaktownblues: A’s 20th round draft pick is the son of a powerful Las Vegas businessman – I know pickings are slim by round 20, but did they basically punt a pick to cozy up to a potential future business partner?

Brendan Gawlowski: Apparently he’s a good receiver, I’d never heard of the guy until you pointed him out

Phillip Denny: With the trade deadline looming, who are the true “untouchable” prospects we always hear so much about?

Brendan Gawlowski: I tend to think that nobody’s untouchable, it’s not like Boston would turn down McGonigle, Clark, and Greene for Franklin Arias…

David P: Any thoughts on the younger Gelof (Jake)? He got a shot in a Dodgers system?

Brendan Gawlowski: maybe an up down guy

mspir: you mentioned in your future games piece you were maybe concerned with what you saw from leo de vries. how serious is the hesitation here? if it were just you would he be a 60?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not huge, it’s one day, inevitably someone’s going to struggle, I don’t want to put too much weight on it

Brendan Gawlowski: But I also felt like that about Jackson Holliday in 2023 and that instinct was appropriate in retrospect.

Phillip Denny: Old heads love to complain that “if Greg Maddux was a prospect today he’d never make it to the show.” So let’s play that game – righty SP, sits 92 touches 95, throws all 3 FB shapes, 70 changeup, 45ish curveball, 70 command, 80 fielding. Does he get a look?

Brendan Gawlowski: The real question is what adjustments Maddux would make in the modern game

Brendan Gawlowski: He can move the ball really well, and he’s getting to that velo with so little effort

Brendan Gawlowski: Trading a little of this for a little of that, he still could probably be pretty good?

Brendan Gawlowski: An exact carbon copy of what he was doing would not perform anything like his production from the 90s if you dropped him into the rotation tomorrow, but that’s almost too obvious to say

The Swenzation: Ive seen a lot of people talking about Rafe Perish this year but not a whole lot of talk on Carter Graham when at least on the surface looking at their results they’ve been pretty similar at the same level and age, was wondering if you can tell me a little more about them since neither of them have reports on their fangraphs page

Brendan Gawlowski: We haven’t had a check back next week question yet, so… ask again next week and I’ll dive into it!

scotth855: Let’s say you’re running a club and you get a call from another GM that wants to deal their young stud player (McGonigle, Whetherholt, Chourio, PCA, etc.), would you immediately think that something is wrong and not do a deal? Like they are a true clubhouse cancer or something very bad is going on behind the scenes?

Brendan Gawlowski: My antenna would be up, yeah

Hazmat Corntail: Anybody from the draft jumping as guys who could be fast-tracked through their respective systems and be up sooner than later?

Brendan Gawlowski: My educated guesses probably aren’t too different than yours. Strike throwers with present stuff, hit tool guys with viable power and a mature approach.

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s almost impossible to pick who’s going to Meckler

ajexpress: What’s the future hold for Brandon Sproat? Do you think the Brewers kick him out if the rotation post trade deadline?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think they’ve wisely let him work stuff out in the majors and have been rewarded with pretty good, if inconsistent, pitching over the last six weeks or so

ajexpress: Do you think trey gregory alford is a top 100 prospect next year?

Brendan Gawlowski: Tentatively yes but it’s not the slam dunk I thought it’d be a few months ago

Phillip Denny: Bat speed is good – makes intuitive sense and the data also bears that out. BUT the Dodgers as a team have the third lowest average bat speed in MLB while comfortably leading MLB in wRC+. Are they zigging while everyone else is zagging, measuring bat speed differently than savant is, or something else?

Brendan Gawlowski: Your question reminds me of this wonderful article from Sam Miller several years back

Brendan Gawlowski: And this passage in particular: “Typists’ fingers slow down with age, but their typing doesn’t. Older typists are “more sensitive to characters farther in advance of the currently typed character than young typists,” according to research published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology. In other words, they type smarter.”

Brendan Gawlowski: So, without looking, I’d assume something similar is going on there with all the older players aging gracefully

K’d Cavalli: In celebration of his debut (and immediate demotion), Will Abi Ortiz hit enough to be a strong-side 1B platoon guy for a few years?

Brendan Gawlowski: That’s a reasonable ceiling

sliderinthedirt: How will the juiced balls affect the trade deadline? Do you think teams will be wary of prospects that randomly broke out this year?

Brendan Gawlowski: In general teams aren’t making decisions on things like slugging, homers, etc.

Brendan Gawlowski: They’re looking at who the player really is, and what they’re likely to do going forward more than their stats

Brendan Gawlowski: Now, if a team thought it prudent to gamble on a lively ball going forward and take a shot on some 40 or 45 power guys with good hit tools… that would be kinda fascinating

apeloton: To clarify, teams think the ball is traveling further, but EVs aren’t impacted? So, it’s a drag thing rather than a bounciness thing?

Brendan Gawlowski: There seems to be a significant drag component. I don’t really know if that’s all there is or not.

Frederik: Does George Wolkow get T100 consideration if keeps doing what he’s doing since he made a mechanical adjustment earlier this season? K rate seems to have stabilized and he continues to hit the crap out of the ball.

Brendan Gawlowski: No

Ozzie: Do you think Michael Arroyo has a shot to play 2B at the major league level? He has put up some solid offensive numbers so far this year.

Brendan Gawlowski: Yeah, no info, but he’s long seemed like a player who would fit better outside of Seattle, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he gets dealt, and whoever acquires him will presumably plan to plug him in there.

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think he’ll be great there

cfarese: Thoughts on Karson Milbrandt from the Marlins??

Brendan Gawlowski: Not any different than on the Marlins list. Wish he’d gotten a full inning at the Futures Game.

Brendan Gawlowski: I have to bounce a little early today. Thanks again for all your questions, and we’ll do it again next week!