Jeff Sullivan: All right, so the queue should be sufficiently built up

Jeff Sullivan: Everybody got World Series fever?

Jeff Sullivan: Everybody got World Series delay fatigue?

Jeff Sullivan: Sure feels like forever since baseball!

Comment From GSon
Right on time.. only 8 minutes past..

Jeff Sullivan: Which is basically right on time, for Tuesdays

Dave Cameron: So, due to a scheduling conflict, you won’t get your regular Monday Szymborski fix. He and I traded days this week, though, so if you’re missing your Dan time, you don’t have to wait another week. That does mean you’re stuck with me today, though.

Dave Cameron: Okay, we’ll get this chat started.

Comment From a Guest
Thanks for chatting Dan! What can we make of Jake Peavy’s free agency after a bifurcated year? 3/40 about right, and if so who bites at that price?

Dave Cameron: I’m not Dan, and I don’t think Peavy will get anything close to 3/40. Steamer projects him as about a +1 WAR pitcher for 2015, and he just posted the worst xFIP of his career.

Dave Cameron: Wild guess: I’d probably think he’s in line for something like the 2/20ish deal that Arroyo/Hudson/others got last winter.

Comment From _David_
Does your discussion of the Royals and the value of mediocrity make the Cano signing look any better for the Mariners?

August Fagerstrom: Hi everyone! It’s me, August. I’ll be here chatting with you tonight

August Fagerstrom: I’m here! Let’s talk baseball, or other things if you guys want to talk about other things too

August Fagerstrom: Giants

Comment From Pale Hose
What other things can we talk about?

August Fagerstrom: Literally anything! The world is yours. We had a nice little discussion on hypothetical animal fights last time, I believe it was a Moose vs. a Jaguar, but some got mad at me for staying on that topic for so long, so maybe let’s shy away from that (Well aware I just opened up a can of worms).

Comment From Jaack
Wouldn’t the correct answer be neither team is currently winning?

August Fagerstrom: Oh, you.

Comment From Eric G
O/U on Wainright’s innings?

August Fagerstrom: Am I just setting, predicting or both? He hasn’t gone 5 yet, so I’ll set it at 5.5 and take the over

Eno Sarris: I’ll be here at the top o’ the hour!

Eno Sarris: In the meantime… chill out with URoy

nicolas Bonnet:

Comment From Shep
Wil Myers projection for next year and beyond.

Eno Sarris: Without looking, I still like him for like .275/.360 25 homers next year, with a peak of .280+, 30+. We’ll be talking about that Shields trade forever.

Comment From Vslyke
Enooooo, let’s talk about La Stella. Not the debut I wanted as a Braves fan, but where do you see his future going? Can he hold off Gosselin and Peraza?

Neil Weinberg: Hey, we’ll get started at 3pm, but go ahead about post your questions now! Remember this chat is designed to help you understand the site, our data, and sabermetrics, but pretty much anything else baseball related is welcome. There’s also a game in an hour, so you’re welcome to hang out for the first few innings of that as well.

I’m @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter if you’re looking for me throughout the week.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, let’s chat!

Comment From Mr Skeptic
Pitch framing. All of the work being done by various sites seems to indicate that framing is potentially a massive piece of the catcher’s defensive value puzzle. I do think that the good framers and bad framers are accurately reflected with the work being done but it’s the overall value I have trouble wrapping my head around. How much do you “believe” in the numbers that there are catchers out there capable of providing 2-3 wins of value on framing alone?

Neil Weinberg: I think this is still an open question. I believe that 2-3 wins is possible, but I don’t think we’ve fully resolved exactly the right way to measuring framing. It’s a real skill and one that influences the game, but I’m not sure if we have perfectly estimated the value of stealing a strike or if we’ve properly divided the credit between pitchers and catchers. We’re only a couple of years into real framing research and the data is less than a decade old. Room to grow.

Comment From Yosted
There seems to be a lot of disagreement on how much defense should weight into WAR. Have any regression analyses been performed to see what weighting most highly correlates with team success?

Neil Weinberg: I am blanking on who wrote about this recently, but I’m pretty sure the results suggested we are actually undervaluing defense slightly in WAR.

Jeff Sullivan: hello there friends

Jeff Sullivan: everybody in the mood to live baseball chat?

Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see how this goes!

Comment From Guest
What exactly is a hung pitch? Is it just location, is it grip, or is it something else?

Jeff Sullivan: Generally speaking, a hung pitch is a non-fastball that ends up higher in the strike zone than was intended. It can be because a ball didn’t spin right out of the hand, or maybe you released it too early, or whatnot

Jeff Sullivan: Jean Machi arguably hung a splitter to Oscar Taveras. Even though the pitch was down in the zone, it was supposed to be in the dirt, and Machi missed up by a couple of feet. So Taveras was able to get the bat head around

Nicholas Minnix: Hello, folks, I’ll be with you at the top of the hour.

Comment From Eminor3rd
A LIKELY STORY

Nicholas Minnix: Isn’t it?

Comment From Ethan
Nick! Keeper league where we get to keep 13. Would you keep these 6 OFs: Puig ($19), Marte ($18), Cespedes ($17), Hamilton ($5), Yelich ($1) and Springer ($1)? Thanks!

Nicholas Minnix: Hey! Probably. I’d say without any other context, they all seem like potential keepers. If you could get any back for less, then you may change your mind. Obviously the cheap guys you couldn’t.

Comment From BEER BARON
Do you also answer beer questions?

Neil Weinberg: Hi all. Queue is open and we’ll start at three. Basic reminder that this chat favors stat/FG/sabermetrics questions, but regular baseball stuff is cool too.

@NeilWeinberg44 is my Twitter handle if you want to get in touch another way.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, let’s discuss baseball and baseball stats. We could also pretend a baseball game happening, although that might get complicated.

Comment From Rob
Do you think Adam Eaton will consistently be a 4 to 5 WAR player, assuming he stays healthy?

Neil Weinberg: Was about a 3 WAR player in 538 PA this year, so he’d have to add 10-15 runs of value to do so. I think the 115-120 wRC+ range is about right, so he’d have to really start impressing the base running and defensive metrics. I think he’s good enough to do it in theory, but we’re talking about the stars all lining up. Expected a 2-3 WAR guy, be thrilled if he reaches that 4-5 WAR ceiling

Neil Weinberg: But I am generally fond of his skill set.

Comment From Jesse
Would a trade involving Jose Quintana and Mookie Betts make sense for both teams? The White Sox could potentially have Sale, Rodon,Danks and perhaps sign Shields or a lower tier guy like McCarthy.

Dave Cameron: We’re going back to being on time this week. The queue is now open. Fire away!

Comment From Gary
The games in the playoffs this year have been some of the more exciting and entertaining of any in recent history. It’s too bad the series themselves have been so short.

Dave Cameron: Agreed. We’ve had some fantastic games, but the lack of a Game 5 is disappointing.

Comment From Mike
Any thoughts on Robert Refsnyder taking the NYY 2B job next spring?

Dave Cameron: I’d just give it to Martin Prado.

Comment From Ned Yost
To avoid pitching Vargas/Duffy in the launch pad that is Camden Yards, should I plan on using Shields in Games 1/4/7 and strictly limiting his pitch counts?