Dan Szymborski: And we are here!

James: You never win trading away Juan Soto. That said, Preller must be thrilled with his haul right now given how the SP FA market has been shaking out, no?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though I’m  not thinking much of Padres in 2024; that’s still a lot of performance to replace and they kinda needed pitching *now*

Laxtonto: Does it seem like this offseason is moving slow on the FA front? Or is it just perception of the long offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think slower than usual. One thing is that there just aren’t many very good position players ou thtere

Dan Szymborski: Been really lite on stars

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and happy new year! Welcome to my first chat of 2024 and my first one in… a little while. Between my move and Hall of Fame season it’s been tough to carve out time for these, so my apologies. On that subject, today I’ve got a piece celebrating the 20th anniversary of the introduction of JAWS https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chewing-on-jaws-at-20/. Hopefully tomorrow I’ll have my profile of José Bautista to add to the one-and-done roster. I did Matt Holliday on Friday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-matt…

Guest: I just learned from your JAWS article that you were a designer for children’s books! Any titles you’re particularly proud of from that phase? Who’s in your board book HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I’m most proud of serving as the creative director for the 2002, 2003, and 2004 editions of the World Almanac for Kids. I got to design the covers and oversaw the whole project on the design side. https://www.ebay.com/itm/302336851464?chn=ps&_trkparms=ispr%3D1&amdata…

Jay Jaffe: In 2002 I got to put Venus Williams on the cover, while in 2003 it was Sammy Sosa (oops, but keep in mind these were decided a year in advance).

Jay Jaffe: I also got to do the covers of the 2002 and 2003 World Almanacs

Jay Jaffe: and some cool science textbooks and some dreadful mathbooks.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

Tacoby Bellsbury: What has been the ZiPSiest transaction of the offseason, and what would be the ZiPSiest potential one from here?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure. Or even what the question means!

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Jung-hoo Lee? When ZiPS evaluates the opt-out it gets relaly close to actual

Mike: What new legend player would you most like to see in MLB The Show 24?

Dan Szymborski: TETTLETON

Dan Szymborski: IT’S A CHAT!

Champdo: So how many bats do you think Colt Keith gets for the Tigers next season?

Dan Szymborski: I’m with Jason here, I think 300-400 PA is reasonable. Unless he flops, I think the Tigers will figure out how to play them, even if the position right now is uncertain

Houzer: Could Willy Adames be an option for the Tigers at 3B in a trade? Maybe like a Sawyer Gipson-Long for Adames deal?

Dan Szymborski: Adames would be fun. I don’t think Gipson-Long by himself gets it done th ough.

Dan Szymborski: And it may be dependent on where the Brewers are.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to a live at the Winter Meetings edition of my chat. I’m here in Nashville at the Opryland MegaBioDome monstrosity with something like a dozen of my FanGraphs colleagues. There hasn’t been a ton going on transaction-wise, but it’s good to be here nonetheless.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I published my coverage of Jim Leyland’s election to the Hall of Fame via the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot for Managers/Executives/Umpires https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fame-calls-for-jim-leyland/

Jay Jaffe: On Friday I had my first writeup of a new candidate on this year’s BBWAA ballot, Joe Mauer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-joe-… and today I’ve got a look at Year 2 of Carlos Beltrán’s candidacy https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-carl…

Scott: Rumors are rumors, but I don’t see how Ohtani wins a WS ring if he returns to the Angels. That organization just doesn’t seem to have the leadership that’s needed to make it happen. Is that assessment off-base?

Jay Jaffe: No, i don’t think this is off-base at all. Honestly, I find an Ohtani return to Anaheim rather implausible because their infrastructure — the roster and the DOA farm system (https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings) — just isn’t there in a way that suggests anything but more of the same. Whether it’s the Blue Jays, Dodgers, or another team, I think he can do better elsewhere, and I have to think he believes that as well.

Travis: What’re the chances Kelenic suddenly puts it all together?

Dan Szymborski: ITS CLOBBERING TIME

striker: Being an Orioles fan and play analyst, who would you be willing to give up in a Cease deal? Would a Cease + Jimenez deal interest you?

Dan Szymborski: Jimenez no

Dan Szymborski: Cease, I’d do something with Westburg as the center (I like Westburg). But I wouldn’t go Westburg AND Mayo

Joe: What key indicators do you look at for determining if a prospect should be called up?

Dan Szymborski: Well, who he’s replacing really.

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s just get going

John Mozeliak: So I should jump the market for Sonny Gray right? Get one starter out of the way, what do I need to offer? 4 years for $90?

Ben Clemens: I actually don’t love this plan, there’s less benefit to ‘jumping’ a market when you’re trying to get more than one person

Ben Clemens: and also, the cardinals should be seeking value if they’re trying to accomplish their stated goals, which are a)keeping payroll constant and b)adding good starting pitching

Ben Clemens: overshooting the market to get your guy works a lot better when you only need one guy

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first offseason edition of my Tuesday chat!

Jay Jaffe: This is also very possibly the last one of these I conduct for a few weeks in my current abode, as The Big Move from the apartment where I’ve spent the past 16 years — the everyday professional part of my writing career, as it is — to our new home further south in Brooklyn is scheduled for a week from Saturday.

Jay Jaffe: It’s all very exciting and stressful and there’s a lot to do, as you can imagine. Since I’ll be without a computer setup for a few days, I’ll have to work ahead, hence the unlikelihood of a chat next week.

Anyway, yesterday I wrote about Clayton Kershaw’s surgery and Lance Lynn’s option: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-kershaws-surgery-and-lynns-declined-o…

Jay Jaffe: And today I published my first candidate profile from the 2024 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Managers/Executives/Umpires ballot, Davey Johnson https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

Votto: What should I do this offseason? (Assuming that whatever I choose is what makes me happy) Is it to retire? Take a bench role with the Reds (again, assuming they’d have me)? Or sign with another team – and which team?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the Halloween edition of my FanGraphs chat. I’m sure we’ll discuss some horror stories from free agency, playoff bullpens, and more.

Jay Jaffe: Nothing from me today as I plug away at my entries for our Top 50 Free Agents list, which runs next week, but I did do a piece on Ketel Marte’s record-setting postseason hitting streak, which he extended to 19 games last night https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-postseason-marte-party-is-one-long-hit…

Jay Jaffe: on with the show…

mac: What’s your opinion of Bellinger? I feel like 29 teams could sign him and he’d sustain this unsustainable performance, but for the one in the bronx he’d be unplayable by june

Jay Jaffe: Funny you should mention that, as he’s one of the players I’m writing about for the FA50. The change of scenery really worked for him, in that the Cubs found some mechanical changes he was able to implement without driving himself and everyone crazy with constant tinkering — mainly regarding his hand position and back hip — and he had a nice bounceback season. His Statcast numbers are pretty meager, but some of that is because he traded power for contact, cut his strikeout rate dramatically, and had some of the best 2-strike numbers of any hitter.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure he hits for a 134 wRC+ again in 2024, but his power and athleticism give him a pretty decent floor for the next few years.