Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat. Some minor technical stuff on this end so bear with me for a  couple minutes

Jay Jaffe: Sorry about that _ the chat wasn’t showing up on the home page banner, which make it harder for site visitors to know it’s happening. Anyway, now that it’s up, let’s get going. I’m rollin(s) on my BBWAA ballot profiles (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-jimm…), had Billy Wags yesterday (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-bill…). Hoped to get the Carlos Beltrán one out this week but there’s so much ground to cover and more care needs to be taken to get it to where I want it.

Jay Jaffe: I did a Twitter thread on the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, whose results I’ll cover on Sunday

Jay Jaffe: and dug into the potential for cronyism now that the Committee voters have been announced https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-naming-the-era-committee-members-the-ha…

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show

Kyle B: even if Judge re-signs with the Yanks, do you think they’ll still pursue Turner, Bogaerts or another star?

Dan Szymborski: And started, the chat has!@

DanIsOurMan: Love love love Zips season! Can you dig into Cruz’s projection a bit more? Surprised his 80th percentile didn’t show more power?

Dan Szymborski: Remember, it’s the 80th percentile projection overall, not the 80th percentile projection of a specific aspect

Dan Szymborski: If he hit the 80th percentile for all his measurables then it would be a higher than 80th percentile projection!

DanIsOurMan: What’s the schedule for the roll out?

Dan Szymborski: Four or five a week

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first 2022-23 offseason edition of my chat. I’m not sure if this is the Hot Stove or the smoldering wreckage of Twitter, but here we are. I’ve been covering the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot this week, with entries on Fred McGriff, Rafael Palmeiro, Albert Belle, and Don Mattingly, all of which you can get to via the nav bar here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: Next up is Dale Murphy, which will run Monday because I added some Deep Thoughts that were brought about by the advent calendar of bad behavior by some of the others on this ballot. I also covered Anthony Rizzo’s return to the Yankees https://blogs.fangraphs.com/anthony-rizzo-heads-back-to-the-bronx/

Malcolm Nunez: Hi Jay is Goldy a lock for the Hall now?

Jay Jaffe: I was just looking at his page a little while ago, prompted by a similar question from MLB Network Radio pal Mike Ferrin. I wrote about Goldschmidt’s progress in mid-July (https://t.co/IydUWFrx7r) after which he continued to mash even with a September slump, which is why he’s the NL MVP

Jay Jaffe: Here’s how he looks via JAWS:

First Base (18th):
58.5career WAR |45.37yr-peak WAR |51.9JAWS |5.8WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162

Jay Jaffe: That peak score is 13th all time, nestled between Frank Thomas and Miguel Cabrera. I’d say that the heavy lifting for Goldschmidt is over, and that he’s on his way provided he gets the remaining 250 hits he needs to reach 2,000 (which he in all likelihood will)

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, hope you’ve had a good week. Please check out my East division 40-man deadline day thoughts if you have not, more is on the way next week, and then we’ll get into prospect lists.

Dan: Considering your top 100 ranks, do you see Joey Ortiz having a greater 2023 impact than Jordan Westburg?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Not necessarily. If Jorge Mateo keeps playing well but Ramon Urias does not while Westburg keeps raking in the minors, then I could see a scenario where Westburg plays and not Ortiz.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ortiz skill foundation is partially his defense (the other is all the contact), and with the shift banned that becomes more important. His 50 FV is a bet on his long-term fit as an average everyday shortstop, Westburg certainly has more power than him, and his FV may change this offseason as my thoughts on what to do with these bat-first, shift-aided infield types solidifies.

Matt: Do you buy Jake McCarthy as an every day regular? I have a hard time believing his batted ball data will allow him to sustain his performance from last year

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree, even though he’s made some changes I think you have to lean on the xSLG, etc. to gauge how real the power output is. Probably a 4th OF type now, a half grade better than he was evaluated as a prospect.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! And welcome to my first chat of November. That was one hell of a game last night. I wrote about Nick Castellanos’ ongoing struggles at the plate, something I had planned to do even before he wound up in the position to be the hero or make the final out. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/inevitably-game-5-found-the-slumping-nick-…

Jay Jaffe: (Elsewhere on the site, Davy Andrews has a look at Castellanos’ defense https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nick-castellanos-outshines-the-gold-glover…)

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I had a look at the ongoing outsized impact of home runs in the constricted offensive environment we see in October/November https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-hitters-are-great-but-the-long-ball-sti…

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show…

sam: If judge leaves the Yankees (and the East), how would you rank the AL East teams for next szn

Jay Jaffe: Well, a lot would depend upon what the Yankees do to fill the void left by Judge’s absence, because it’s not like they’d go into the season without some other big bat or upgrades. But in terms of which team’s roster as it would stand looks the strongest  if they don’t retain their free agents, I suspect it might be the Blue Jays

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to a Game 3 chat that was supposed to be a Game 4 chat

Davy Andrews: RTJ said it best:

RTJ: Baseball!!

Ben Clemens: We’re having some technical difficulties on the site, but bear with us for a minute please

Davy Andrews: Important question as people start to log on to the chat: What did you and/or your loved ones dress as for Halloween?

David Appelman: It’s fixed. 🙂