The Cubs had no room for Dan Vogelbach. Hit though he may, the absence of the designated hitter in the National League was always an inhibitor for his future there, to say nothing of the wealth of young bats the Cubs have amassed at or near the major-league level. For several months, Vogelbach was an obvious potential trade candidate simply because the Cubs had nowhere to put him. Yesterday, that trade occurred: Chicago sent Vogelbach and Paul Blackburn to Seattle in exchange for Mike Montgomery and Jordan Pries.

Then a third baseman, Vogelbach won a 3-A state baseball championship in high school at Bishop Verot High School in Fort Myers. He tipped the scales at close to 280 pounds at the time and was asked to shed weight early in his pro career with the Cubs. He’s now listed at 6-foot, 250 pounds. There are certainly baseball players built like Vogelbach who are still able to effectively execute all aspects of their given position. Stories about Bartolo Colon‘s athleticism or Livan Hernandez’s flexibility are common in scouting circles and it’s not impossible that someone built like Pablo Sandoval or John Kruk can maintain enough lateral agility to effectively play a corner infield spot. Vogelbach doesn’t appear to be one of those players. He’s not a good athlete and has issues with range, footwork, flexibility and throwing accuracy. He’ll make the occasional, spectacular-looking, effort-based play but hasn’t shown enough technical refinement in his five pro seasons to convince scouts he can play a position.

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Everybody wants Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. If the Yankees elect to sell off, everybody will want Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. I don’t need to explain to you why — they are two very obviously dominant left-handed, late-inning relievers. If the Yankees sell, they’ll ask for a high price. Teams, in turn, will pay high prices. You know how the trade deadline works.

People have linked the Cubs and the Yankees. The Cubs don’t need to improve much, but they’d like a steadier bullpen, and they could use a steady lefty. The Yankees present options. On a different tier, I figured the Cubs might have interest in Will Smith. I never once thought about Mike Montgomery. The Cubs just traded for Mike Montgomery. It might not be all they do, but it’s what they did today.

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Back in the middle of May, Dave wrote about how the Cardinals were off to something of an unlucky start. Their record hadn’t tanked or anything, but they weren’t winning as often as it looked like they should’ve been. Based on, you know, the various other indicators. The post went how those posts usually go — Dave observed that the Cardinals were missing wins, and then he talked about how that kind of bad luck has proven itself to be unsustainable. In other words, the Cardinals had been unlucky, but the Cardinals shouldn’t have remained unlucky.

Two months have passed, and the Cardinals have remained unlucky. Don’t like the word “luck”? That’s fine. You know what I mean. The Cardinals’ most important number isn’t matching up with all the other numbers. In May, it was something to notice early on. Now the Cardinals are in historic territory. It’s the wrong sort of history, but at least they’re making a statement, I guess.

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Matt Kemp took Jeff Samardzija deep on Saturday. In the third inning of a game played at Petco Park, the San Diego Padres outfielder deposited a slider from the San Francisco Giants righty over the left field wall. According to ESPN Home Run Tracker, the blast traveled 398 feet.

As you might expect, Samardzija wasn’t pleased with the pitch. He doesn’t feel the location was terrible, and “Shark” has a solid slider, but he regrets not throwing a sinker. He explained why prior to last night’s game at Fenway Park.

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Samardzija on facing Matt Kemp on July 16, 2016: “I walked the first two guys in the first inning. Kemp came up, hitting in the three-hole, and I struck him out on five pitches. Four of the five were sinkers in that he mostly swung through. One of them he fouled off and then he struck out swinging.

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Drew Pomeranz is in the midst of a breakout season. He’s already surpassed his season high for innings and his ERA is a very low 2.47, while his FIP is a low — if not quite as low — 3.15. Those very good numbers netted the San Diego Padres a very good pitching prospect recently in the form of Anderson Espinoza.

Much of Pomeranz’s newfound success has been attributed to the addition of a cutter to his repertoire, which Jeff Sullivan detailed just before the trade last week. One notes, however, that the success is aided by a .240 BABIP and 80.8% left-on-base rate. Even if those numbers aren’t sustainable, the 3.15 FIP indicates Pomeranz’s success is real. But there’s reason to believe that Pomeranz isn’t as susceptible to regression as the average pitcher. Or there’s reason, at least, to believe that the Red Sox believe he isn’t.

Speaking with WEEI’s John Tomase, former major-league pitcher and current Red Sox assistant pitching coach Brian Bannister has indicated that Pomeranz’s cutter makes it more likely that he’ll sustain some of his batted-ball suppression in Boston.

From Tomase’s piece:

[Bannister] explained that like knuckleballers, whose BABIP numbers tend to skew low, pitchers who feature cutters tend to outperform league average on balls in play. He knows this because he did it over his first two years in the big leagues, posting BABIPs between .239 and .249.

“I was an example of it,” Bannister said. “[Cutters] generate a different batted-ball profile. There’s just different weak contact in there. Some guys it’s popups. Sometimes you get gyro-spin and it’s almost like a knuckleball. I mean, knuckleballers beat BABIP. It’s not always a given that a full regression is going to occur. When I look at a guy, if there’s a cutter involved or a knuckleball involved, you just can’t say for sure. I know a lot of people look at those two numbers — left on base percentage and the BABIP — and say, ‘Oh, he’s going to get worse in the second half.’ It’s not always a given.”

While we know pitchers tend to gravitate towards league average when it comes to BABIP, some pitchers are better than others at limiting hits on balls in play. Pop ups, like Bannister mentioned, can be a good way to induce easy outs. Fly balls and ground balls have different expected batting averages. Given a large enough sample size, we might be able to deduce which pitchers have these type of skills. With a smaller sample, perhaps looking at pitch types would help us determine which pitchers are likely to produce low BABIPs and thus more likely to outperfrom their fielding-independent numbers.

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You’ve seen Daniel Mengden pitch, right? If you haven’t, you have to. First of all, it looks like this.

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One year ago today, the Texas Rangers were 43-48, in third place in the American League West Division. The first-half bullpen looked terrible. Neftali Feliz started the year as the club’s closer and pitched himself right onto the disabled list and right out of town. Tanner Scheppers imploded. Anthony Bass threw more first-half relief innings than anyone, is maybe all you need to know. As a unit, the Rangers relief corps had a 4.38 ERA, a 4.48 FIP, and were in serious need of a shot in the arm if the club wanted to make a second-half run.

So, general manager Jon Daniels and the Texas front office identified a weakness and acquired right-hander Sam Dyson from Miami and left-hander Jake Diekman from Philadelphia, alongside Cole Hamels. Dyson and Diekman, paired with then-closer Shawn Tolleson and the emerging Keone Kela, formed a quartet that led a remarkable turnaround for the Texas bullpen. In the second half, Rangers relievers went from a 4.38 ERA to a 3.79. From a 4.48 FIP to a 3.98. From a bottom-five unit to a top-five unit. The team went 45-26 the rest of the way to launch themselves into the playoffs, and while the bullpen improvement wasn’t the entire reason why, it was certainly a large component.

Fast-forward to the present. The Rangers are in better standing than they were a year ago! Much better. They’re 55-40, and, according to our playoff odds, they’re looking at a better-than 50% chance to win their division with roughly a 70% chance to make the playoffs, one way or another. But lately, things haven’t been going well, and regarding the root of the struggles, the Rangers are experiencing déjà vu.

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Aroldis Chapman closed on Monday, and he threw some pitches incredibly hard. Now, on its own, that’s nothing new. That’s kind of his whole deal. Aroldis Chapman threw baseballs hard. The crow perched in the tree behind me was earlier literally flying in the sky. The world is amazing. But then, Chapman’s pitches were unusually hard, at least. Even by his own insane standards. He was buzzing 105 miles per hour, and other pitchers just don’t do that. Chapman was throwing pitches the likes of which we’ve barely ever seen.

So some attention is warranted. In response to Chapman’s outing, Dave asked how hitters have done and behaved against A++ heat. What’s happened when Chapman has thrown around his own personal maximum? I’ve done research. It’s all spit out for you below.

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Over the last few weeks in this space, we’ve been evaluating regular position players’ contact quality utilizing granular data such as plate appearance outcome frequencies, exit speed and launch angle. (Catchers represented the last installment in that series.) Over that time, players not included in our original analysis have overtaken previous incumbents in terms of total plate appearances. Today, we’ll add players who did so as of July 4 to the mix. Next time, we’ll look at newly qualified pitchers.

The data examined today runs through July 4. Players are separated by league, and are listed in Adjusted Production order. Adjusted Production expresses, on a scale where 100 equals average, what a hitter “should have” produced based on the exit speed/launch angle of each ball put in play. Each player’s Adjusted Contact Score, which weeds out the strikeouts and walks and states what each player should have produced on BIP alone, is also listed. Here goes:

Most of the column headers are self-explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, wRC+ and Adjusted Production, which incorporates the exit speed/angle data. Each hitter’s Adjusted Contact Score (ADJ C) is also listed. Adjusted Contact Score applies league-average production to each hitter’s individual actual BIP type and velocity mix, and compares it to league average of 100.

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Carlos Correa placed second last week on the trade-value list that Dave Cameron puts together every season. That placement seemed to surprise some, given that Correa is having a very good, but not great season. Correa’s 120 wRC+ is hardly spectacular, even if that number increases to 150 if you start with the latter part of May. He has improved over the last few months, but even with that improvement, the placement might seem high. What definitely seemed high was Correa’s ZiPS projections over the next five years, starting at 7.9 WAR next season and totaling more than 40 wins from ages 22 to 26. Cameron, too, was surprised, and in the comments, his explanation caught my eye:

I was shocked by the Correa forecast myself, and asked Dan to double check that there wasn’t an error in the code or something, given how bullish it is on Correa’s future. But Dan said the system just loves Correa, as the history of guys who can hit like this at 20/21 in the big leagues is almost universally fantastic. The age really is the key thing to keep in mind here; it’s easy to forget how big of a leap guys can make early on, and at 21, there’s still a lot of room for growth.

Carlos Correa is currently in the midst of his age-21 season, and he’s accumulated 820 career plate appearances. Over the last 100 years, only 59 players have received at least 800 plate appearances before the end of their age-21 season and then eventually made their way to a Hall of Fame ballot. One finds that — without regard for how they played or for how long — an astonishing 36% (21) of those players eventually made in the Hall Of Fame. If you move the bar up to 1,000 plate appearances, 21 of 44 players are in the Hall of Fame. Of more recent players, it looks like that trend might continue. Edgar Renteria, Starlin Castro, and Elvis Andrus probably will not make the Hall of Fame and Justin Upton and Jason Heyward have a ways to go, while Alex Rodriguez, Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, and Andruw Jones all have at least decent statistical cases.

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