We rarely talk about Aaron Harang. When we do, it’s usually to describe him as a “safer” player rather than a good one, or perhaps to poke a little fun at his appearance. He never ranks very highly when it comes time to make lists, and we’re generally at a loss to describe his success. And yet, he keeps churning out solid seasons of baseball.
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As Kris Bryant heads to North Side of Chicago to make his debut, the lack of movement on the South Side has merited much less attention. Carlos Rodon remains a starting pitcher in Charlotte as the White Sox use two currently inferior pitchers in the rotation. Much of the same arguments for keeping Kris Bryant down apply to Rodon. By keeping him in the minor leagues, the team can gain an extra year of service time. A couple starts during the course of the season is not likely to make a huge difference for the White Sox’s season.
Whether those arguments are valid as they apply to Rodon are moot now. The time needed to keep Rodon down is over, and the White Sox still haven’t named a starter for Sunday afternoon, but they have eliminated one name:
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Imagine, if you can, the least-fair thing in baseball. Do you have it? Maybe you’re picturing having to face Giancarlo Stanton with the bases loaded. Maybe you’re picturing one of those Clayton Kershaw curveballs, or Juan Lagares running down a would-be winning double in the gap. Maybe you’re just thinking about Billy Hamilton on the bases. OK! You’re wrong.
The least-fair thing in baseball is Aroldis Chapman throwing a changeup. It’s the least-fair thing for exactly the reasons you’d expect. His fastball is unfair enough on its own; add a changeup and you’ll have helpless hitters twisting their spines. The good news was this: for years, Chapman’s changeup was only theoretical. It was something he’d throw a few times in spring training before realizing he didn’t need to mess around. Chapman was never quite lacking for weapons.
Then in 2014, Chapman got experimental. For the first time, he carried that changeup into the season. And the results? You could probably guess the results, even without me telling you, but just for the sake of being complete: Chapman threw 63 changeups, according to Brooks Baseball. Opposing hitters made contact exactly once (it was an out). Allow me to repeat that, for effect: batters made contact with one Aroldis Chapman changeup in 2014, out of 63 opportunities. They didn’t always swing, but you get the point.
It was beautiful. It was perfect, from an objective-observer viewpoint. It was decidedly not perfect from an unobjective-opposing-hitter viewpoint. Through the first half of the season, Chapman threw 11% changeups. In a June series against the Pirates, Chapman threw six changeups in consecutive games. All of a sudden, it looked like the change was going to be a regular part of the repertoire, and Chapman was soaring to new levels. Chapman, at that point, was playing with his food.
Merry Krismas, Chicago; Kris Bryant’s defense magically improved in the exact amount of minor league games it took for the Cubs to delay his free agency by a year. With that remarkable coincidence act of theatre out of the way, the Cubs can now acknowledge that Bryant is not only their best third baseman, but one of their best big league players. And so today begins the Kris Bryant Era in Chicago.
Chris Mitchell has already written up the KATOH system’s expectations for Bryant, and as you’d expect, a model based on Bryant’s minor league performances think he’s going to be quite good. After all, few players have torn up minor league hitting the way Bryant has; including his stint in the AFL, Bryant has hit .331/.430/.671, good for a 195 wRC+. Kris Bryant can hit, and when he hits, the baseball goes a long way.
That profile is why he’s the consensus top prospect in baseball, and why there’s so much hype surrounding his call-up. Bryant isn’t some toolsy athlete in low-A ball that could be great in three years, or a flame-throwing ace who could rack up the strikeouts until his arm explodes; he’s a college-polished slugger who already projects as one of the best third baseman in baseball, even before he plays a big league game. As prospects go, Bryant is a very low-risk talent, as it would take a minor disaster for him to not be at least reasonably productive for the Cubs in 2015 and beyond.
Remember Alex Rodriguez? He’s playing baseball again. He’s also just six home runs from passing Willie Mays for fourth on the all-time home run list. Now that we’ve left the frenzied Bonds record-breaking era behind, not many people are paying attention to who’s climbing the leaderboard, or even generally what’s going on with A-Rod. It feels like a saga that has run its course, and we’re left in the post-scandal haze when everyone is bored and has moved onto something else. The people that are talking about him either do so ostensibly to bash him, or love him in an ironically redemptive, friend of the anti-hero sort of way.
That’s understandable given the circumstances surrounding him, but he’s popped up a few times in this young season, like when he did this on Wednesday night:
For the first time in four decades, the U.S. Supreme Court will have an opportunity to reconsider baseball’s notorious exemption from antitrust law. On Wednesday, the city of San Jose, California filed an appeal with the nation’s highest court, asking it to overturn professional baseball’s nearly century-old immunity from the Sherman Antitrust Act.
The appeal is the latest step in the litigation surrounding the Oakland A’s proposed move to San Jose. Back in 2013, the city sued Major League Baseball claiming that the league’s failure to approve the A’s relocation violated federal antitrust law. The district court dismissed the lawsuit later that same year, concluding that baseball’s exemption shielded MLB’s relocation decisions from antitrust scrutiny. That decision was upheld earlier this year by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.
While these lower courts were constrained by a series of Supreme Court precedents exempting baseball from the Sherman Act, the Supreme Court itself is not bound to follow the prior rulings. So San Jose is asking the Court to seize this opportunity to overturn baseball’s highly controversial antitrust immunity. Like any appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, however, the odds that the Court will agree to take San Jose’s appeal are rather slim.
Happy Kris Bryant Day!
Kris Bryant is finally free. After spending his obligatory two weeks in the minors, the highly-touted slugger has been summoned to the major leagues. He’ll slot into the Cubs lineup today, and will be playing third base, putting an end to the much-maligned Mike Olt era in Chicago.
By now, you’re probably well familiar with Bryant’s prospect pedigree. After three monster seasons at the University of San Diego, the Cubs took Bryant with the 2nd overall pick in 2013, right behind Mark Appel. Bryant made quick work of the minor leagues, destroying opposing pitchers to the tune of .330/.429/.662 in his year and a half in the minors. Bryant was a highly-touted prospect dating back to his college days, but his prospect status ticked up to elite following his 2014 performance. He hit .325/.438/.661 between Double-A and Triple-A last year, and belted a whopping 43 homers along the way — the most of any player in affiliated baseball.
Unsurprisingly, KATOH’s all over him. My system forecasts the slugger for a remarkable 16 WAR through age-28, which was the 2nd most of any prospect last winter; Only Joc Pederson earned a higher projection. Here are the probabilities my system spits out for Bryant through age-28. Read the rest of this entry »
With certain players, you just don’t get the usual questions. Lorenzo Cain is one of them. By our numbers, last year, Cain was just about a five-win center fielder. In large part, this was powered by a Defense rating close to +20. UZR and DRS both absolutely loved him, and frequently that magnitude of statistical affection makes some people uncomfortable, but there wasn’t much questioning Cain’s ability, especially come playoff time. He’s obviously an elite defensive center fielder. Last year, he was an above-average hitter and runner. Put it together and you have a great player. It’s pretty easy to explain Cain’s five wins above replacement.
So coming into this year, Cain looked terrific. He stood to be a weapon for the Royals, if somewhat incomplete. Few can match him in the field. Only a few more could match him on the bases. And Cain has learned to hold his own at the plate, after some struggles earlier in his career. Yet Cain still had some room for offensive development. He was far from a finished product, and through a couple weeks now, there’s a sign that, perhaps, Cain is about to lift that part of his game. Let’s take a look at his Thursday.
You’ve probably seen what Kevin Pillar did on Wednesday. On the off chance you haven’t, we’ll get to that later, at the right time. Let this much be said now: it was absolutely extraordinary. But it also wasn’t the first Pillar highlight of the season. The guy who was supposed to lose time to Michael Saunders has so far played in place of Michael Saunders, and, it’s been a busy several days.
One play alone can’t explain this: in the early going — the very-stupid-early going — Pillar leads baseball in Defensive Runs Saved, with seven. As a matter of fact, if you set a low threshold of 500 innings, then, since 2010, Pillar ranks third among major-league outfielders in DRS per inning, or per 1,000 innings, or per whatever denominator you choose. He hasn’t played enough for that to be super meaningful, but he’s done enough for that to be interesting, and it isn’t lost on me that a pillar is a stationary building support. Grant Balfour has been a pretty good pitcher. Kevin Pillar has been a pretty good defender.
So let’s review Pillar’s week that was. Everything you see below was contained within Pillar’s most recent seven games, through Wednesday, with the first game chosen because that’s when Pillar recorded his first assist. I noted that Pillar has been busy. Ever wondered what 7 DRS looks like? Wednesday’s catch was just the latest feat. And there have been close calls. And there have been misplays. The antonym of “pillar” is “Kevin Pillar”, apparently, because he hasn’t been able to stop moving around. The man’s made himself noticed.
The Arizona Diamondbacks generated a fair amount of excitement yesterday when they promoted Yasmany Tomas. After the experiment to play Tomas at third base had failed, or at least been tabled for awhile, during Spring Training, Tomas was sent to Triple-A Reno where he had been playing right field. With A.J. Pollock in center field, Mark Trumbo in right field, and Ender Inciarte off to a fast start in left field, there did not appear to be a spot for immediate playing time for Tomas, fueling speculation that perhaps another move was in the offing. Excitement and speculation soon yielded to confusion as Tomas was not in the starting lineup and news that Tomas had been brought up as a bench bat.
The Diamondbacks called up their $68 million investment to sit on the bench, the problem arising due to an unusual roster construction and injuries to two of the three catchers on their 40-man roster with significant experience at the position. When the season started, Arizona put 12 pitchers and 13 position players on the 25-man roster. After Gerald Laird hit the disabled list, the Diamondbacks chose to supplement the bullpen with an additional arm for a few games, calling up A.J. Schugel.
After a few games with the loaded bullpen and shorthanded bench, the Diamondbacks decided to move back to the more traditional setup of having 13 position players and 12 pitchers on their active roster. Due to injuries at catcher, the Diamondbacks were faced with a difficult decision on their roster. Prior to making a move the active roster looked like this (Players on the disabled list in italics):
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