Have you heard? The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2015 is now available for sale. You can check out the table of contents and read some excerpts from the book. When you finish that you can purchase it from our independent publishing platform, Createspace, in print form, or from Amazon in print or Kindle form.

But wait, there’s more! Because we’re giving folk, and since it’s the beginning of the holiday season and all, we want to give you a chance to win yourself a free copy of the book. So today, tomorrow and Wednesday, we’ll be running a trivia contest based on one of the articles in the book. The first person to post the correct answer in the comments will win a free physical copy of the book (sorry, no free Kindle version). It’s just that simple!

Today’s question comes to us from Dave Studeman’s piece on WPA entitled “The Story Stat, Circa 2014.” In it, he tells us how he defines the “biggest” game of the year. To wit:

When I say “biggest” game, I mean the one with the most in-game drama. When teams swap leads, or just threaten to take a lead, win probability moves up and down a lot. When one team takes an early lead and cruises to a win, win probability basically moves in just one direction.

So I use swings in win probability to quantify how much drama there was in each game. Specifically, I take all the swings in win probability and divide by the number of innings in the game. (If not for this last step, all extra-inning games would be ranked ahead of nine-inning games.)

So, with that in mind, dear reader, the question before you today is this:

Which two teams were involved in the “biggest” regular season game of 2014?

Good luck!

There’s kind of a talking point here, about how much the qualifying offer cost Adam LaRoche a few years ago. Following a career year in 2012, LaRoche was extended a qualifying offer, and a market never developed, so he re-signed with the Nationals for two years and $24 million. LaRoche now is older, and he’s coming off a similar offensive season with seemingly worse defense, and with no threat of compensation attached, he signed with the White Sox for two years and $25 million. Imagine what he might’ve been able to get before, were it not for the draft-pick concerns?

A few things. Firstly, yeah, markets get depressed by qualifying-offer extensions. That’s just a part of things right now. Secondly, inflation. The $24 million and $25 million aren’t directly comparable. Thirdly, LaRoche’s contract with the Nationals was actually quite reasonable. He projected for about 2.4 WAR the next year, so his contract projected to pay him about $5.6 million per win, near the average at the time. As I look right now, LaRoche is projected for 1.5 WAR in 2015. So this deal projects to pay him about $10 million per win, well above the assumed average. It’s not that LaRoche was necessarily underpaid before; it’s that now he seems likely to be overpaid.

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Heading into the 2009 draft, Baseball America wrote the following about Kyle Seager’s future while rating him as the 97th best prospect in the draft.

A three-year starter for North Carolina, Seager is an area scout favorite, not to mention a player opposing coaches respect immensely. National evaluators have a harder time pegging him because he doesn’t fit a neat profile. His best tool is his bat. He has a smooth, balanced swing and makes consistent contact with gap power. He ranked third in the nation in 2008 with 30 doubles and was on a similar pace in 2009. He has a patient approach but doesn’t project to hit for much home run power because of his modest bat speed and flat swing plane. While he’s a fringy runner, he’s a fine baserunner.

Seager played second base for his first two seasons and moved to third this year, where he has played good defense. Featuring an average arm and impressive agility, he’s an average defender at third, if not a tick above. Scouts who like him see a Bill Mueller type who doesn’t fit the profile but grinds out at-bats and outs in the field. His detractors see him as a safe pick with low upside and a future reserve or utility player.

Major League teams agreed with the assessment, and Seager went 82nd overall, sandwiched between Trevor Holder and Jerry Sullivan. He was a classic low upside guy, taken because he looked like he could provide some value with minimal risk, but no one expected Seager to turn into a star.

After three seasons (and some change) in the big leagues, though, it’s probably time to throw that profile out the window. In 2,200 big league plate appearances, Seager has now launched 70 home runs, or an average of 19 longballs per 600 plate appearances. For comparison, Pablo Sandoval has averaged 20 home runs per 600 plate appearances through his career, and has been the focus of a pretty significant bidding war for his services. The market recognizes Sandoval as a significant offensive force, and is paying him as such; given that, we probably have to recognize Seager as a legitimate asset at the plate as well.

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Kole Calhoun tore his way through the minor leagues. He hit the ground running in his 2013 debut. Why was there any surprise when he put up a top-ten season for an American League outfielder this year?

There are reasons, or maybe we could say excuses, for Calhoun’s dismissal as a prospect. He never made a top 100 Baseball America list, he never made that organization’s top 10 prospects on the Angels, and there wasn’t much buzz about him coming up. He’s not tall — at five foot ten — and his Baseball America writeup said his tools were “uninspiring.”

And once he started putting up minor league stats, there were reasons to dismiss those as well. Calhoun signed as 22 year old out of college. He was a year older than the average player in rookie ball, so maybe that helped with the .292/.411/.505 slash line at Orem. He was older than average in A-ball, so maybe we shouldn’t gaze too longingly at that .324/.410/.547 line in Inland Empire. And Triple-A? That was Salt Lake in the Pacific Coast League. Obviously his .298/.367/.507 there was inflated.

So there were reasons, or maybe excuses. But after Calhoun debuted in 2013 with offense that was 27% better than league average, he faced a new struggle last season. “Obviously they’re going to have a lot more information on me now then they’ve had in the past,” the player admitted in late 2014. “It’s my job to understand what they are trying to do and know what my weaknesses are and not really give them too much of a chance to expose them.”

It was nice that you were as good as your numbers promised, kid, but can you keep it up when they’ve got a book on you?

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.

When I saw that the White Sox had signed Zach Duke for three years and $15 million, my first thought had nothing to do with Duke or Chicago. It was, “wow, Andrew Miller and David Robertson are going to get paid.” Though Duke was obviously a much different pitcher in 2014 than he was in previous years, he’s still a guy who has one good year on his resume after nearly a decade of mediocrity. If he gets three years, it seems clear that the more accomplished Miller and Robertson are going to get at least four (though Robertson’s qualifying offer will hurt, somewhat).

This isn’t necessarily about whether they will or should get multiple-year deals; they clearly will, even though Dave has written here numerous times over the years about how poorly long-term deals for relievers tend to work out. Part of the reason they’re going to get paid is because the Royals just made it to the World Series based in no small part on having a shutdown bullpen of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland, and success will always breed copycats. Part of it is because of the perception that with starters going shorter and shorter into games, it’s more important to have a talented bullpen.

But is that second part actually true?

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Bronson Arroyo has a love-hate relationship with vacation mode. He loves to chill out and enjoy life – often with guitar in hand — but that all-too-familiar mound of dirt constantly beckons. The idea of not returning to it leaves him cold.

Arroyo was a paragon of health and reliability from 2004-2013. The tall righthander made at least 29 starts annually, but that streak ended when he underwent Tommy John surgery last July. Five months after signing as a free agent with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Arroyo found himself in unfamiliar territory.

“It’s been a weird experience,” Arroyo said earlier this week. “That first month, watching the team on the road, was the first time I’d been separated from a ball club. I’d be watching these guys play in San Francisco and I’d be sitting in the house in Arizona. It wasn’t cool.”

Arroyo didn’t spend all of his time in the house. When I semi-jokingly asked how long he was on the guitar disabled list, he said he was playing in his cast two days later. He then related how hard it is to keep him cooped up inside.

“After I got out of the hospital, the doctor called my girlfriend and asked ‘How is Bronson recovering?’” said Arroyo. “She said, ‘Oh, he’s fine. He’s at the casino playing Roulette right now.’ He was like, ‘What?’ So it didn’t have me down that long.”

Positive attitude aside, Arroyo realizes recovery from Tommy John surgery is a long and winding road. His therapy sessions last four hours and he won’t begin throwing until January. While his recovery is going well, he admits his arm can’t be deemed fully recovered until it is battled tested.

Until that time, Arroyo will cross his fingers. Being on the shelf for the first time in his career has been a stark reminder that no one plays forever. In all likelihood, he would if he could. Read the rest of this entry »

In his final season as the face of baseball, Derek Jeter wasn’t the best player in baseball. He generated a forever memorable moment to close out his time in New York, but the year saw him finish with a wRC+ that was 46 points below his career average. Since Jeter’s retirement, people have openly wondered which player might take over as the new face of the game. I don’t know. I don’t care. This just serves as a strained introduction. Jose Molina might’ve just finished his final season as the face of pitch-framing. He might not have been the best pitch-framer in baseball, but he was close, because framing, unlike hitting, doesn’t follow a dramatic aging curve. The year saw Molina finish with a wRC+ that was 41 points below his career average. That’s dreadful, for a player whose career average is bad.

Molina’s 39. The Rays didn’t simply elect not to keep Molina. The Rays had Molina under contract, and they’ve designated him and his $2.75-million salary for assignment. So this isn’t a move to save money. This is a move to try to be better, and the Rays think they have a capable tandem in Ryan Hanigan and Curt Casali. That much is perfectly defensible. This isn’t interesting because the Rays are letting Molina go; this is interesting because no one else offered to pick Molina up at his salary.

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Justin Upton is probably going to get traded. If you believe Joel Sherman’s source, there’s no probably about it; Upton is the next Brave out of town. And it makes sense; the team is clearly retooling for the future, while Upton is entering the final year of his contract. If the Braves don’t think they’re going to sign him long-term, better to trade him now than settle a compensation pick next year.

The question will be the price. Sherman reports that the asking price for Upton is going to be higher than the return they got for Jason Heyward, and that was already a pretty solid package. As I noted this morning, teams are paying through the moon for right-handed power right now, and so Upton will be an attractive option for teams looking to balance out their line-ups.

But even with the advantage of his handedness, I’d like to suggest that the price for Upton should be less than what St. Louis gave up for Heyward. And I promise, this isn’t another discussion of Heyward’s defensive metrics. I can make the point without even needing to cite UZR or DRS, because the offensive gap just isn’t as large as people think. Here are their respective lines over the past three seasons.

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There aren’t any Mike Trouts on the free-agent market. And actually, at this rate, there might never be any Mike Trouts on the free-agent market.

There are plenty of talented position players available, but they all bring their own individual question marks. People wonder how Pablo Sandoval’s body is going to age. People wonder how Yasmany Tomas is going to translate his skills from Cuba. People wonder if Victor Martinez is going to sustain last year’s power spike, and no one’s really clear on whether Nelson Cruz can repeat his massive 2014.

Perhaps top among all of them, in desirability, is Hanley Ramirez, but he, too, has a question people ask. Actually, there are a few questions, but maybe most pressingly, there are questions about his defense.

He’s never been a great defender at shortstop, and now he’s almost 31 years old, having gotten through a countless number of aches and pains. I’ll quote writer and frequent Dodgers observer Mike Petriello, from the beginning of October:

[…] that defense took a bigger step back, to the point that it’s hard to see him sticking at shortstop rather than moving to third, and the injuries continued to pile up. In 2014 alone, he missed time with minor injuries to his left hand, left calf, right shoulder, right calf, and left oblique, and those are just the ones we know about.

It’s pretty well known that current defensive statistics aren’t as reliable as current offensive statistics, but it’s also pretty well known that current defensive statistics aren’t measuring nothing, and by the numbers, Ramirez looks bad. Over the last few years, he’s been one of the very worst defensive shortstops. When he spent a chunk of time playing third base, he was statistically bad there, too. You have to allow him an adjustment period there, but still, it’s evidence that points to Ramirez being a defensive liability. Not coincidentally, though he just played short for a contender, there’s talk that Ramirez is willing to move just about anywhere.

Read the rest on Just A Bit Outside.

Ten years ago, everyone wanted young pitching. It was the considered the currency of baseball, the thing you could always trade if you needed to acquire something else. But these days, random kids on the street can throw 100 mph, the strike zone is gigantic, and preventing runs is now the easy part of the game. What everyone wants now is offense, and seemingly, offense in the form of good right-handed hitters.

This seems a reaction to the fact that the league’s platoon splits have gotten larger over the last few years; specifically, left-handed hitters have been exploited more often by left-handed pitching. Here is the league average wRC+ for LHP vs LHB match-ups in each year since 2002:

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