Archive for Daily Graphings

Yesterday, the Q&A from the estimable David Laurila focused on relievers of the 70’s and 80’s, so I thought I would take a look at some relievers from that era. During the 1970’s, relievers began to take on the importance that they have today. But back then, they were used far differently. In the process, many stars were born. Going down the list of most valuable relievers for the decade, you surely recognize the names that reside in the top five, three of whom are enshrined in Cooperstown — Bruce Sutter, Rollie Fingers, Mike Marshall, Rich Gossage and Sparky Lyle. The next name on that list, Jim Kern, might be a little less well known, but he had a significant impact nonetheless, albeit for a shorter period of time.

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We begin with a Shaun Marcum timeline. Marcum debuted in the majors in 2005, and he got progressively better through 2008. He missed all of 2009 due to Tommy John surgery. In 2010, as a Blue Jay, he started on opening day. Following 2010, he was traded to the Brewers for top prospect Brett Lawrie straight up. In 2011, he posted a sub-4 ERA over 33 starts. In 2012, he posted a sub-4 ERA over 21 starts, having missed time with elbow discomfort. But he pitched before the discomfort, and then he came back to pitch after it. Marcum’s a not-unreliable 31 years old. As a free agent, you’d think Marcum would be able to get himself a reasonably hefty contract. Instead, he’s signed with the Mets for a year and $4 million. He could earn an additional $2 million, but only if he hits his incentives.

As always, that counts as a hefty contract by our non-baseballing standards. Marcum will out-earn many CEOs! Such luxury! But for the sake of comparison, Mike Pelfrey signed for a year and $4 million, with $1.5 million in possible incentives. Scott Baker signed for a year and $5.5 million, with $1.5 million in possible incentives, and last season he didn’t throw a pitch. Kevin flipping Correia signed for two years and $10 million, and he’s Kevin Correia. On that basis alone, it seems like the Mets got themselves a pretty good deal. On that basis alone, it seems like Marcum should’ve had more of a market.

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Buster Olney has been doing a series of Top 10 lists on his blog at ESPN this week. He even solicited suggestions from Twitter. It has been a fun exercise, I am not here to nitpick the method. One that was particularly enjoyable to think about was Olney’s list of the top ten outfields in MLB history. It is on Insider, but I do not think I am ruining anything by telling you that he rates the 1961 Yankees outfield of Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, and Yogi Berra as the best outfield ever. It is not a terrible choice or anything, although there are arguments to be make for others, which is the fun part of this sort of thing. I wonder, however, was whether the 1961 Yankees outfield is even the best Yankees outfield of all time. What about 1941? (No, not the star-studded Spielberg/Belushi movie.)

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News broke Sunday night that the Maloofs — the majority owners of the National Basketball Association’s Sacramento Kings — agreed to sell their share of the team to Seattle investors, including Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and investor Chris Hansen. The Seattle group valued the franchise at $525 million, and agreed to pay $340 million for the Maloof family’s 65% stake. Sacramento mayor and former NBA star Kevin Johnson is working to assemble a counter-bid to keep the team in California while minority investors may sue and claim a breach of the limited-partnership agreement. In other words, the $525 million value is likely to go up before this is done.

Just days later, Forbes published its annual story on NBA franchise values, and ranked the Kings as the 11th-most-valuable franchise, using the $525 million figure from the proposed sale. But the Kings weren’t the only NBA team to see its value rise significantly in the past year. For the first time, Forbes valued two teams at $1 billion or more — the New York Knicks (at $1.1 billion) and the Los Angeles Lakers (at $1 billion) — and pegged the average franchise value at $509 million, a 30% increase over 2012. Forbes also reported the average operating income (earnings before taxes, depreciation, etc) for the NBA’s 30 teams was $11.9 million, the highest since Forbes started tracking the numbers in 1998.

So what’s driving the NBA’s financial success, and what does it foretell for Major League Baseball teams’ values when Forbes releases that list in March?

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FanGraphs+ never went away — we update it throughout the year with content posted on ESPN Insider — but it’s time for the annual. We’ll be publishing the full FG+ arsenal in just over a week.

Once again, we’ll have over 1000 player capsules, sussing the fantasy value of everything from the studdiest stud to the LOOGYiest LOOGY. This year, we’ll add auction values to those capsules, and FG+ subscribers will see those values on the projections leaderboards. And below you’ll see our table of contents — all long, research-driven and analysis-heavy pieces that walk the line between fantasy and real baseball work.

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According to Kevin Towers, a few days ago he was prepared to move on without having traded Justin Upton, as he wasn’t finding enough value on the market. In lieu of an Upton trade, the Diamondbacks presumably would’ve made a Jason Kubel trade, presumably with the Orioles. But things changed, and they must have changed swiftly — on Thursday, the Diamondbacks officially announced an Upton trade with the Braves, as Justin will join his brother B.J. in the Atlanta outfield. Or, this, in other words.

Dave already wrote about the trade overall, from both sides. Mike Newman already took a look at the prospects involved. I, personally, got curious about the brother angle. This was something Justin was hoping for; he turned down a trade to Seattle, hoping for a trade somewhere else, somewhere more familiar, somewhere closer to home. Speculation was that he wanted Atlanta more than anything else. It’s an odd quirk that Upton will play beside his own brother. But I found myself wondering if the psychology involved has any effect on performance. In short: historically, have players gotten better when they’ve been teammates with a sibling? On one hand, it would be surprising if they did; on the other hand, it would be surprising if they didn’t. Players are always talking about the importance of comfort. What could be more comfortable than playing with family?

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Mike Napoli’s strange offseason has cost him a lot of money. After appearing to agree on a three year, $39 million contract with the Boston Red Sox in early December, he and the team finally agreed on a one-year contract worth just $5 million guaranteed dollars with up to an additional $8 million in incentives. As Eno Sarris wrote when the deal was announced, the team and player were both caught by surprise when a routine physical revealed that Napoli has a degenerative hip condition called avascular necrosis, which is what scared the Sox away from the multiyear deal. So what is avascular necrosis?
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As of Thursday, an awful lot of people are happy. The Diamondbacks are happy, because they were able to move Justin Upton for value. The Braves are happy, because they were able to get Justin Upton for a good but not outstanding package. And Justin Upton is happy, because he gets to go play in Atlanta, instead of Seattle or somewhere else. Upton was hoping for a destination like this, if not this destination specifically, and now he can put his alleged malcontent days behind him and play alongside his brother. This is a move that felt like it had to be made, and now it’s been made, officially.

But from the Braves’ perspective, there are not zero concerns. For one thing, now they’re down a Martin Prado, and their third-base situation could be stronger than it is. And then there’s the matter of Upton, and the strikeouts that he brings. He’ll share an outfield with B.J. Upton, who strikes out, and Jason Heyward, who strikes out too. There’s been some degree of concern that the new Braves might strike out too often, which means there’s concern that the Braves’ offense might underachieve.

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Kyle Farnsworth’s free agent decision is expected to come soon, with the big right-hander having narrowed his decision down to the Tampa Bay Rays and the ever-present Mystery Team. Farnsworth lost his closer’s spot in Tampa Bay to the phenomenon that was Fernando Rodney, and his injury-limited 2012 season was somewhat of a disappointment: in 27 innings, Farnsworth allowed a 4.00 ERA and a 3.39 FIP; his 4.67 BB/9 was his highest since 2001.

A ballooning walk rate and decreasing velocity — his average fastball velocity fell from 96.7 MPH to 95.4 MPH* — gives ample reason for pessimism and has likely limited Farnsworth’s options in free agency. But, at least by the numbers, there’s still reason to believe The Professor can be a sharp contributor to a bullpen in 2013.

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Earlier in the week, I discussed the type of prospect package the Diamondbacks would require from the Atlanta Braves for a deal to make sense for both franchises. Little did I know the Braves would be willing to part with Martin Prado, a lynchpin of the organization who has averaged nearly four-wins per season from 2010-2012.

When a player of Prado’s ilk is included, the prospect haul is bound to shrink. While all four youngsters have Major League possibilities, the group is void of impact potential. Read the rest of this entry »