Archive for Daily Graphings

(Re) Introducing Hitter Volatility

I suspect many researchers and writers have their own white whale or unicorn; an idea or concept that they are always chasing, regardless of how fruitless or costly that search may ultimately be.

My unicorn is the concept of volatility. I spent a large part of my tenure at Beyond the Box Score exploring the topic for both hitters and pitchers. I even looked at the concept in relation to team performance earlier this year at FanGraphs and other outlets.

Essentially, the idea is to understand whether there are appreciable differences in how players distribute their daily performances over the course of a season. For example, if you have two hitters that are roughly equal in terms of overall skill (i.e. both are 25% better offensively than the league average) is there a difference in terms of how much each is likely to vary from their overall performance on a game to game basis? Is one hitter more consistent day in and day out, while the other mixes in phenomenal performances with countless 0-4 days?

My initial work had some problematic issues (as most initial work does), but thanks to some great feedback from readers and colleagues alike I am ready to roll out the new and improved version of Volatility (VOL), starting with hitters.

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R.A. Dickey and the Myth of One Great Year

Like many others, I’ve expressed some bewilderment on Twitter about how the Mets are handling their negotiations with R.A. Dickey. Dickey was one of the game’s best players in 2012, and the Mets were reportedly offering him the same kind of contract Joe Blanton just signed for, and have now improved their offer to make it equal to what Jeremy Guthrie just signed for. There’s a discount involved with signing an extension a year out from free agency, but the discount has to be reasonable, and these offers don’t strike me as overly reasonable. They don’t strike Dickey as overly reasonable either.

However, there’s a common retort from some folks whenever it is suggested that the Mets pay Dickey like a top-shelf starter. “It was just one year.” Here, see for yourself.

Apparently, there’s this idea that pre-2012 R.A. Dickey was a worthless nothing, and after his fluke season, he’s headed right back to being a trick pitch sideshow. That idea is just hilariously wrong.

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The 2012 Season In Slow Home Runs

A little over two weeks ago, I wrote up The 2012 Season In High Home Runs. That concluded a four-part home-runs-by-pitch-location series, but of course, pitch-location data isn’t the only data that we have, and there are other extremes to explore. Given that it’s late on Friday and R.A. Dickey hasn’t been traded yet, I think, I figured now would be a good time to mess around again with something similar. So now we’re going to look at the slowest pitches hit for home runs during the 2012 season.

Which makes you think the title here should be different, since this seems to suggest we’re going to look at the home runs that were the slowest off the bat, according to the ESPN Home Run Tracker. That would indeed be a thing to look at, but that’s not what’s happening here, and it’s only titled this way to be consistent with the other home-run entries. The headline is already up there and there’s nothing I can do about it now. Once a word is entered on a computer, it cannot be erased by any means with which I’m familiar.

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Tigers Pick Anibal Sanchez Over Rick Porcello

Despite a winding road of reports over the last two days, Anibal Sanchez will remain a Detroit Tiger after all. The club signed the 28-year-old right-hander to a five-year, $80 million deal, keeping him in Detroit through the 2017 season.

Sanchez joins Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Doug Fister as locks for the Tigers’ rotation this spring, with just one spot left for youngsters Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly. Porcello could be the one on his way out — trade rumors have surrounded the 23-year-old since the Winter Meetings, and now the Tigers’ otherwise full rotation will likely push him out the door to make room for Sanchez.

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Josh Hamilton Whiffing: an Investigation of Concerns

Yesterday, in a surprising yet also entirely unsurprising maneuver, the Angels came out of left field (baseball term) to sign free-agent Josh Hamilton to a five-year contract, worth $125 million. Other high-profile free agents have just recently signed — Ryan Dempster! Anibal Sanchez! — but Hamilton was the big fish, and he’s the guy most people are thinking about. He’s been one of the league’s biggest bats, and he signed with the Angels instead of re-signing with the rival Rangers, as was expected. No move sends actual shock waves, but if certain moves were to send shock waves, this would have been among them.

There are almost countless reasons to be worried about Hamilton’s short- and long-term future. There’s a reason why everybody else was unwilling to guarantee five years, and there’s a reason this decision was apparently made over Jerry Dipoto’s head. A lot of people are worried that Hamilton could have an addiction relapse. A lot of people are worried that Hamilton’s body could break down, as he’s shown signs of physical fragility. At least one person is probably worried that Hamilton could morph into a butterfly and then what would the Angels do with a $25-million butterfly? What worries me, though, and what we’ve talked about here already, is Hamilton’s contact rate. For Josh Hamilton, 2012 was the most recent season, and it was a puzzling season.

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A Look at Workhorse Pitchers

Earlier this week, in the aftermath of the big Royals-Rays trade centered around Wil Myers and James Shields, Dave Cameron wrote about the perception of relative risk with respect to veterans and top prospects. One issue in this case is the supposed reliability of a “workhorse” pitcher like James Shields. Dave rightly pointed out that although prospects are risky, there is risk associated with any player, even a supposedly reliable pitcher. I wanted to look a bit more closely at these workhorse pitchers. After a number of seasons of 200 or more innings, how many innings do such pitchers put up in the subsequent seasons?

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A Different Take On The Dodgers’ Spending Spree

The Dodgers are rich. Very rich. After spending $2.15 billion to buy the team, the new owners have opened the checkbook again and again and again. First, in the trade with the Red Sox that netted Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Nick Punto. Next with the winning bid for Korean pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu. Then with the free-agent signings of Zack Greinke and Brandon League — and the contract for Ryu.

Over on his blog, my colleague Mike Petriello estimates the Dodgers’ current commitments for 2013 at $246.9 million. That figure includes deferred payments still owed to Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones and Hiroki Kuroda, but excludes Ryu’s $25.73 million posting fee. Salaries for A.J. Ellis and Ronald Belisario — who are entering their first year of arbitration — still need to be added. And perhaps the Dodgers make another small move here or there. But let’s not quibble over pennies.

Instead, let’s assume the Dodgers’ Opening Day payroll is $250 million. A nice, big, round number. A quarter-of-a-billion dollars. Unprecedented, right? Blows anything the Yankees have ever done out of the water, correct? The most the Yankees ever spent on an Opening Day payroll was $209 million, back in 2008. But you can’t just compare $250 million spent in 2013 to $209 million spent in 2008 without adjusting for inflation. That’s not how money works. The value changes over time. Let’s take a look.

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Q&A: Taijuan Walker, High-Ceiling Mariner

Taijuan Walker is more than the top pitching prospect in the Seattle Mariners organization. The 20-year-old right-hander is among the best in the game. With only 126 innings under his belt he remains a work in progress, but his ceiling is sky high.

A two-sport star at Yucaipa (California) High School — he also excelled in basketball — the 6-foot-4 Walker was taken 43rd overall in the 2010 draft. Blessed with athleticism and aptitude, as well as a mid-to-high-90s fastball, he profiles as a front-line starter.

Walker talked about his repertoire, which includes a newly-added pitch, during the Southern League playoffs.

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Walker on his changeup: “My changeup has gotten a lot better since spring training and the end of last year. I’m comfortable throwing it in any count now. I’ve made really big strides with it.

“It’s just a regular straight change, a four-seam circle. I’ve tried many grips and this is pretty much the comfortable one and the one I like. Plus, I throw a lot of four-seam fastballs, so a four-seam changeup is going to benefit me more.

“You have to throw it like your fastball. You have to keep the same arm speed and let the grip do all the work. Sometimes I’ll throw it a little too hard, but I’m mostly been pleased with it. It ranges anywhere between 84 and 90, and I get a little downward movement and some arm-side run. Not a lot, but just enough.”

On his curveball and feel: “This year I didn’t really trust my curveball, so I kind of got away from it. I just wasn’t confident in it. In my last couple of starts, it’s been much better though. I’ve been trusting it more and throwing it more. Instead of trying to make it break, I’m letting the grip do its work. It’s going to be one of my key pitches. Every day I’m working on it, trying to perfect it.

“I was a big basketball player in high school and my pitching coach last year, Rich Dorman, would always use a lot of basketball analogies with me. He used them to help me understand pitching. When you throw a baseball, you feel it off your fingertips, just the same as when you’re shooting a basketball. You feel where the ball is going to go, whether you’re going to miss right or miss left. Same with pitching, inside or out.”

On his fastball: “Velocity is one of the biggest keys to my fastball. I can get away with missing my spot sometimes, just because I have the velocity that I do. I think I’ve topped out at 99 this year. But I can’t always get away with it, so I’m working on making my location better.

“You don’t ever want to be too fine. That’s when you get yourself in trouble. If you’re a hard thrower and can get your fastball in the area of the location where your catcher sets up, you should be fine most of the time.”

On missing bats and maturing as a pitcher:
“There are times and places where you want to pitch to contact, but there are other times… it depends on what type of pitcher you are, if you’re a power pitcher, or not.

“I don’t really pay attention to it too much, but it’s always good to get more ground balls than fly balls. If the wind is blowing straight out, and you’re a fly ball pitcher, that can kind of hurt you. Plus, with runners on, you can get double plays.

“I think this year was big for me. I feel like I’ve had to learn how to pitch and not just be a thrower. In Double-A, you can’t just throw fastballs and get away with it. You really have to pitch. You have to mix your pitches and throw off-speed in hitters’ counts. This league helped make more of a pitcher.”

On his newest pitch: “I just added a cutter a few weeks ago. In high school I threw a slider, and I wanted to add it back, but they wouldn’t let me. Now that I’m at a higher level, they’re allowing me to work on this pitch. Not as my strikeout pitch, but just to have it. It’s another look. I feel it can be a good contact pitch, off my fastball, to get a ground ball. Or maybe I can get a broken bat or a pop out. I’ve been throwing it from 88 to 92, but I’m still working on it and trying to figure out how much break I need on it and how hard I need to throw it.”


Anibal Sanchez and the Rebuilding Cubs

Last season, the Cubs lost 101 games. By straight record, it was their worst year since 1966, and they would’ve been the worst team in baseball were it not for the Astros putting on a clinic in how to accomplish exactly that. The Cubs, of course, are rebuilding, and as their 2012 team record would suggest, the process has only somewhat recently gotten underway. As you rebuild, you generally build from the ground up, acquiring youth and spending on short-term free agents. Generally.

Thursday, hours after it was revealed that Josh Hamilton was signing with the Angels, it was reported that Anibal Sanchez was signing with the Cubs. That comes from Bob Nightengale. Nightengale has written up a whole article about this, but no one else is yet confirming his report — Ken Rosenthal says instead that the Cubs are close, but that others remain in play. The Tigers have been Sanchez’s other most serious suitor, and Nightengale puts the Cubs’ offer at five years and $75 million. Let’s say that Sanchez has not yet agreed to a contract. We know now that the Cubs are deeply interested. And at first glance, that seems curious, given the Cubs’ position.

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Hamilton Fallout: Trade Bourjos, Trumbo, or Morales?

After losing out on Zack Greinke, the Angels decided to just take the money they had ticketed for a pitcher and sign Josh Hamilton instead. It’s certainly a bold move, and even with all of Hamilton’s red flags, he should probably project as something around a +4 win player for 2013, though of course the variance around that mark is probably larger than with most hitters. However, for the Angels to realize the full value of adding Hamilton to the roster, this can’t be their last move, because they already had an outfield full of useful players, and paying $125 million for the right to bench Mark Trumbo or Peter Boujos just doesn’t make any sense.

The Angels still have a gaping hole in their starting rotation. With Hamilton in the fold, they now have four outfielders who deserve to play regularly. A trade seems inevitable. Now, the Angels just have to decide which player to move.

Mike Trout’s obviously not going anywhere, and Vernon Wells wouldn’t even bring a batting tee in return, so it’s likely going to come down to one of three options – Bourjos, Trumbo, or Kendrys Morales. There are only two line-up spots for those three players, and all three are good enough to be big league starter. So, who goes and who stays?

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