Archive for Daily Graphings

Optimizing Batting Orders Across MLB

Of the many topics discussed in The Book is lineup optimization; essentially, the degree to which teams can extract extra runs throughout a season through better lineup construction.

The general consensus seems to be teams don’t do a great job at optimizing lineups. But the gains from proper optimization aren’t that great, anyway.

That being said, I was curious whether there’s evidence for league-wide changes in the ways players are deployed throughout lineups. Given the statistical research in the past few decades, is the league any more in line with setting lineups with the expressed idea of simply avoid outs?

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Marco Scutaro and Irrational Exuberance

The perils of rumor reaction writing – Baggarly has amended his original note to suggest that the Giants offer is two years with a vesting option, not three years. So, adjust accordingly.

There are times when a player undergoes a dramatic transformation and essentially forces us to abandon everything we knew about that player previously. Cliff Lee. Jose Bautista. R.A. Dickey. It happens. Guys reinvent themselves, and as a result, their new contracts reflect the recent reality, not the average of all their Major League seasons.

And sometimes, guys have monster rebound seasons, reminding everyone of their previous levels of success, and enable teams to have confidence to pay premium prices to get them under contract. Adrian Beltre, for instance. Giving a veteran player a huge raise is not always an overpay. Sometimes, he’s just done enough to change the market’s opinion of his skills, and his performance requires a drastic change in compensation.

So, I’m not willing to say that every big raise for a veteran is a de facto overpay. But, even with all that said, I can’t say I understand what Marco Scutaro did in 2012 that has made the market drastically reevaluate his value.

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Jack Zduriencik on Catching Value in Seattle

The Seattle Mariners probably need offensive production more than they need to upgrade defense at the catcher position. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t make a move to upgrade defense at the catcher position. General manager Jack Zduriencik faces that quandary at this week’s winter meetings, and possibly beyond.

Jesus Montero and John Jaso are currently in line to share catching duties, and neither is a Gold Glove candidate. They can, however, swing the bat. The underrated Jaso hit .276/.394/.456, while Montero, who possesses a high offensive ceiling, hit .260/.298/.386, with 15 home runs.

If the Mariners do acquire a defensive-minded catcher, it will likely be as a platoon partner for Jaso, with Montero seeing most of his action at first base and/or DH. Similar to the deal that brought Jaso over from Tampa Bay last November, the player would also fit the undervalued-asset category. Kelly Shoppach, a solid defender who hits well against left-handed pitching, is the type of player that fits that description.

Zduriencik was asked about the team’s catching situation, and what went into the Jaso trade, in a lobby conversation at Nashville’s Gaylord Opryland Hotel.

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Zduriencik on acquiring Jaso for Josh Lueke on November 27, 2011: “In the Jaso case, we had a need and [the Rays] liked the arm they got. We liked that Jaso gives you really good at bats. Plus, a left-handed-hitting catcher is a nice commodity to have.

“We do our due diligence in any trade. You dot your Is and cross your Ts. You have the baseball people look at the statistical analysis side of it, and you talk to your people who have seen the player on the field. You also try to get background information, to find out his makeup.

“Sometimes things move really fast and you just have to make decisions. Read the rest of this entry »


Shane Victorino, Boston Right Fielder

It looks like Shane Victorino is going to get three years and $37.5 million from the Boston Red Sox… to be their right fielder. A year after most of his game showed decline, but his defense remained mostly intact, Victorino will be used at a position that is mostly known for bat-first guys. It’s not all that bad, though. For one, the current Red Sox centerfielder is only under contract for one more year. And for two, Victorino’s drop-offs came in ways that might not be so dire.

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Nationals Take the Dan Haren Shot

When the Angels allowed Dan Haren to walk away for nothing, the immediate speculation was that he’d look to stay on the West Coast. There seemed to be a natural fit with the Padres, and though there were lingering questions regarding Haren’s health, it was clear he was going to get a shot somewhere, and it was clear he was going to be in some sort of demand. Haren seems to have found a home now, on Tuesday, and it isn’t on the West Coast at all — it’s on the opposite of the West Coast, as Haren has an agreement with the Nationals for a year and $13 million.

The immediate implications are twofold. One, the Nationals have an agreement with Dan Haren! Two, with Haren, the Nationals would be removed from the Zack Greinke sweepstakes, almost certainly. Greinke had been linked most often to the Dodgers, Angels, Nationals, and Rangers, and Haren would round out the Nationals’ starting rotation, eliminating the need. Not that the Nationals were considered a favorite for Greinke’s services, but one less suitor is one less suitor, even though the Dodgers are all the suitors a free agent needs.

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Revenue-Sharing Flexibility Stretches With New TV Deals

Last week, I reported on local TV contracts for all 30 major-league teams. The article’s lede was the Dodgers’ potential $6 billion-to-$7 billion deal with Fox Sports West that was slated to start in 2014 and would run for 25 years. It turns out the Dodgers and Fox did not come to agreement by last Friday’s deadline. Under their existing contract, the Dodgers can make one final demand by this Friday, which Fox can either accept or reject outright. If that doesn’t lead to an agreement, the Dodgers are free to negotiate with others. Time Warner Cable is waiting in the wings.

Whomever the Dodgers ultimately cut a deal with to broadcast the team’s 162 games, expect the deal’s value to stay in the $6 billion-to-$7 billion range. But it may not be a straight-cash deal. As Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reported, the Dodgers may end up with a significant ownership interest in Fox Sports West or another broadcast partner, much like the Rangers’, Angels’, Astros’ and Padres’ new deals.

At first glance, a part-equity deal would seem to counter some of the outrage elicited by the all-cash deal, which was estimated to net the Dodgers $240 million to $280 million per year in broadcast-rights fees. But in reality, an all-cash deal is better for the league as a whole, because rights fees paid to the Dodgers (as opposed to profits from an equity stake in a regional sports network) would be included in a team’s “Net Local Revenue” — essentially the bundle of money subject to MLB’s Revenue Sharing Program.

Or would they?

Remember the Dodgers have something of a sweetheart provision when it comes to local TV fees and revenue sharing: As part of the former owner Frank McCourt’s bankruptcy proceedings, the court ruled the Dodgers’ new TV contract would be “valued” at $84 million for purposes of revenue sharing. In other words, if the Dodgers go with a straight-cash deal, only the first $84 million in yearly fees will be subject to revenue sharing; the rest can be pocketed for the team’s own use. The result will be the same if L.A. goes the partial-equity route, as long as the cash payments exceed $84 million per year.

But put aside the Dodgers’ $84 million revenue cap. The revenue-sharing program in the current collective bargaining agreement is designed to capture a significant portion of the additional cash teams will rake in with the new local television deals. In fact, the revenue-sharing language in the current CBA changed fairly dramatically from the CBA that was in place from 2007 through 2011. Remember that the first wave of new TV contracts came in late 2010, when the Rangers and Fox Sports West reached a 20-year, $1.7 billion deal to commence before the 2015 season. It appears that deal was very much on players’ and owners’ minds when the current CBA was negotiated in 2011.

A few weeks ago, I explained the current revenue-sharing program in this post. If you didn’t read that post, do it now, as I won’t repeat that detailed discussion here. Here’s the basic outline:

  • Teams share their “Net Local Revenue” — essentially all money made from baseball operations other than money earned through MLB’s Central Fund.
  • The Central Fund includes revenue generated by MLB’s national TV contracts, MLB Advanced Media (which operates MLB AtBat, MLB.tv), licensed merchandise and the All-Star Game.
  • Under the Base Plan, every team contributes 34% of its Net Local Revenue to the pool, which is then divided equally among all 30 teams.
  • The Supplemental Plan adds an additional 14%, putting the total percentage of Net Local Revenue shared at 48.
  • Teams do not contribute and receive revenue from the Supplemental Plan by equivalent percentages. Instead, each team pays into the pool or receives from the pool in accordance with its Performance Factor. For example, the Yankees’ Performance Factor in 2012 is 27.7%; the Royals’ is -8.2%. In other words, the wealthiest teams pay the most. The least wealthy teams receive the most.
  • Starting in 2013, big market teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, White Sox, Giants, Phillies, Blue Jays, Nationals, Braves, Rangers and Astros) will forfeit an increasing percentage of revenue-sharing proceeds, but those forfeited funds will be funneled back to most of those same teams according to the Performance Factors.
The concept of Performance Factors was first used in the CBA in effect from 2007 through 2011. Roughly speaking, a team’s Performance Factor is calculated by dividing the total Net Local Revenue (for all 30 teams) by the average of that team’s Net Local Revenue over the prior three seasons. The equation would look like this:
Total of MLB Net Local Revenue _
3-year average of team’s Net Local Revenue
But under the 2007-2011 CBA, the Performance Factors were used to reallocate money from MLB’s Central Revenue Fund — i.e., national TV contracts, MLB Advanced Media, licensing and the All-Star Game. Under the current CBA, revenue-sharing doesn’t touch MLB’s Central Revenue Fund at all. Each team shares equally in that money. Instead, the Performance Factors now are used to reallocate more of the wealthiest teams’ local revenue to the less wealthy teams. When a team’s Net Local Revenue skyrockets from one year to the next due to a new local TV contract, that additional money will be part of the revenue-sharing program.
In addition, a new local TV deal that increases a team’s local revenue by 10% or greater will lead to an increase in that team’s Performance Factor during the CBA’s life. So not only does the size of the revenue-sharing pie increase, but the team with the new TV deal will contribute more to that pie.
When I wrote about the Dodgers’ potential new TV deal and detailed the other 29 local TV contracts, I lamented what I called the “new revenue inequality” in Major League Baseball. And while that inequality very much exists, it’s not quite as stark as I had envisioned, thanks to the changes in the collective bargaining agreement.

The Zack Greinke Alternative

There’s not a whole lot of question right now regarding just who is the top free-agent starting pitcher available. When in doubt, follow the Dodgers. It was thought that re-signing Zack Greinke would be the Angels’ main offseason priority. They’re still interested, but they might be priced out. The Dodgers are in there and flashing their wallets. The Rangers might be just as interested. The Nationals are involved to some kind of extent. Greinke is the available free-agent ace, and everybody else is, at best, second-tier.

For the teams looking for quality starting pitching that miss out on Greinke, there are alternatives, who could be signed or traded for. Ryan Dempster is a free agent, and a good deal older than Greinke. Kyle Lohse is a free agent and he’s going to cash in to some degree. Among trade candidates, R.A. Dickey could be tremendously valuable, James Shields could be similarly valuable, and Jeremy Hellickson might or might not be extremely valuable, depending on your interpretation of his statistics. But there’s another quality free agent, the same age as Greinke, who could be of nearly as much value for a considerably lesser cost.

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Angel Pagan, Not Aubrey Huff

Angel Pagan just signed with the San Francisco Giants. $40 million for four years might seem like a slight overpay in terms of years, but this is obviously a team trying to win now, and they did just make a little extra coin that they can spend in order to stay competitive.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Similar justifications were probably made when Aubrey Huff helped power the Giants to their first World Series title and was subsequently signed to an ill-fated deal. This is Angel Pagan, though. Not Aubrey Huff.

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What Is R.A. Dickey’s Trade Value?

The Mets have been talking to R.A. Dickey about a contract extension for months, and since he’s still unsigned, there are clearly some issues that aren’t so easy to resolve between the two sides. So, they’re weighing all of their options, and the primary option for a team with a player who is a year from free agency is to trade him. Given that Zack Greinke is the lone free agent hurler who is viewed as a clear impact starter, the Mets could theoretically take advantage of a seller’s market, and shopping Dickey as a fall-back plan for the teams who don’t get Greinke might end up bringing back real talent.

Word from Jayson Stark today is that the Mets have “gotten serious” about trading Dickey and he could potentially be moved during the meetings here in Nashville. That would probably require Greinke to sign here as well, as maximizing Dickey’s return would likely involve pulling a Greinke runner-up into the bidding. Assuming Greinke does choose between a large paycheck in LA or a large paycheck in Texas, what could the Mets reasonably ask for in return for one year of a 38-year-old knuckleball specialist?

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Soto and the Rangers

Way back in Ye Olden Days of 2008, Geovany Soto was the Cubs’ Rookie of the Year catcher. He hit for average, power, drew walks, and played acceptable defense behind the plate. He was just 25 years old. The best seemed to be to come.

Four years later, Soto got non-tendered by the Rangers, then reportedly turned around and signed a one-year, $3 million contract with them. For a contending team like Texas with a sizable payroll budget and in need of a catcher, the issue is not so much about the money. Rather, given the dearth of other catching options either internally (especially with Mike Napoli reportedly signing with Boston) or externally, the issue is whether Soto is good enough to be a regular starter for the Rangers in 2013.

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