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They set records for the highest win total and run differential of the post-1960 expansion era, and featured future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera in full flower among what would become known as the homegrown “Core Four,” as well as a memorably diverse lineup and bench sprinkled with some sage veterans. Despite a brief scare in the AL Championship Series, they steamrolled their way to the 24th championship in franchise history and the first of three straight. The 1998 Yankees — who went 114-48, outscored the opposition by 309 runs, and won 11 out of 13 postseason games, culminating in a sweep of the Padres in the World Series — were the best team upon which I’ve ever laid eyes, and they’ll probably remain the yardstick by which I measure all others, just as the 1927 Yankees were for my grandfather’s generation. If not for the time I spent watching and attending their games, it’s quite likely I’d never have taken the career detour that led to full-time writing about baseball.

As the Yankees celebrate the 20th anniversary of that team this Saturday in the Bronx, I’ll be there for personal reasons as much as professional ones.

I’ll spare you the long version of the personal journey, as I’ve previously documented my experience growing up as a third-generation Dodgers fan and then gradually taking to the Yankees after moving to New York City. The short version is that my arrival in NYC in February 1995, at the tender age of 25, more or less coincided with the Yankees’ return to prominence after having failed to crack the postseason since 1982. I had never before lived in a city that had its own major-league team (let alone two), and my passion for baseball was only beginning to awaken from its college-era dormancy. It was fueled primarily by reading the New York Times sports page and watching ESPN and network broadcasts.

I had rooted for the Mariners in their thrilling 1995 Division Series with the Yankees, but somewhere in the next year, between my first trip to the House That Ruth Built (August 18, 1996), David Cone‘s seven no-hit innings in his return from an arm aneurysm (September 2), and Jim Leyritz’s homer off Mark Wohlers in the epic Game Four of the World Series (October 23) — all of it blanketed by the preternatural placidity of manager Joe Torre, whose ability to withstand the bluster of owner George Steinbrenner and the noise of the New York media I found nothing short of miraculous — I found myself pulling for the Yankees.

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Historically, leadoff hitters don’t possess much power. Historically, they have served as table-setters, players who get on base so that more powerful hitters down the lineup can drive them in. Historically, all that’s true.

A look at this year’s home-run leaderboards, however, reveals Mookie Betts, Matt Carpenter, and Francisco Lindor all among the top 15. Betts is having a year that rivals Rickey Henderson’s 1990 campaign as the greatest leadoff season of all time, and Carpenter leads the National League in homers and WAR. Lindor, meanwhile, is just a lone dinger away from his second straight 30-homer season. That all bat leadoff for their respective clubs.

Because it receives the most plate appearances, the leadoff spot is, by definition, relevant to a club’s run-scoring efforts. Despite its importance, teams have generally failed to place one of their best hitters in that position. In 2002, leadoff hitters put up a 93 wRC+ overall, behind the marks posted by Nos. 3 through 6 in the lineup and virtually even with second and seventh. That’s just one year, but it’s representative of teams’ reluctance to place their best, or even second-best, hitters in the leadoff spot. The graph below shows a five-year rolling OPS+ for the leadoff spot, with data from Baseball-Reference.

For the most part, leadoff hitters have been roughly league-average hitters. They were a bit better than that in the late 1960s, when pitchers dominated everyone, and they had a great run in the late 80s and early 90s, too, when Hall of Famers Rickey Henderson and Paul Molitor were putting up great seasons at the top of the lineup. It’s possible teams spent the rest of 90s and early 2000s looking for Rickeys and Raineses and that, when they couldn’t find speedsters who got on base a ton and hit for extra bases, they merely settled on players who possessed the first of those traits. The result was suboptimal lineups that left runs on the table by giving too many plate appearances to players who weren’t among the best hitters on the team.

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The Braves won again on Tuesday, extending their lead in the NL East to two games. And now, there’s nothing especially remarkable about beating the Marlins at home, but for me, it’s more about how the Marlins were defeated. Trevor Richards took the mound, after a scoreless top of the first. His first pitch was thrown to Ronald Acuna Jr.

Acuna hit a home run. He’s been doing a lot of that. Just after TV came back from instant replay, Richards threw his second pitch, to Charlie Culberson.

Culberson also hit a home run. Short of sustaining some kind of injury, Richards’ first two pitches couldn’t have gone any worse. They both turned into the worst possible outcome, and there was something symbolic in that. Not so much as far as Richards is concerned. It’s more about the Braves, and how they’ve been hitting. The Braves this year have been more than happy to jump on the first pitch. They ambushed Richards on Tuesday, and that wasn’t the end of it.

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Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Tanner Houck, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Level: Hi-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 4   FV: 45
Line: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 R, 7 K

Notes
The Red Sox have been tinkering with Tanner Houck’s arm slot and pitch grips throughout the year in effort to find the best combination of pitch types for him. Earlier in the year that involved raising his arm slot and incorporating more four seamers into his mix, but now Houck’s fastball and arm slot look more like they did in college. His results have been better of late as he’s walked six and allowed nine runs combined over his last six starts. His low slot makes it easier for lefties to see the ball out of his hand and Houck will still need to find a way to counteract this issues to profile as a starter.

Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Level: Hi-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: 14   FV: 40+
Line: 2-for-4, 2B, 3B

Notes
While his overall line is still disappointing, Mickey Moniak is slashing .298/.341/.465 since May 22. He’s made a subtle swing change that has him taking a using bigger leg kick with his knee driving back toward his rear hip (similar to the one Adam Haseley adopted while in Clearwater this year) and he’s also striding closed which has helped Moniak deal with stuff on the outer half, which had been a problem for him as a pro. I’ve asked teams for updated reports on Moniak and the pro side of the industry think he has tweener outfielder tools but acknowledges it appears he’s been playing a level ahead of his ability so far. The industry considers him a big leaguer but thinks it’s going to take some time.

Bryan Abreu, RHP, Houston Astros
Level: Low-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: 28   FV: 35+
Line: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 10 K

Notes
Bryan Abreu has generated varying reports throughout the year, at times 92-94 with a 50 breaking ball and 40 control (which is barely a prospect) and others when he’s been up to 97, sitting 94-95 with big vertical action on one of two his breaking balls. He’s accrued double-digit strikeouts in two of his last three starts and has a 69:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 42.4 innings this season. The Astros are great at installing coherent pitching approaches into their prospects, most of whom are high-spin fastball/breaking ball guys who work up in the zone with their heaters, an approach which leads to more strikeouts. This, combined with Houston’s piggyback approach (where hitters don’t often see the same pitcher three or more times), leads to lots of strikeouts. I think the fastball (which is pretty straight) plays better out of the bullpen and I’m skeptical of Abreu’s short-term walk rate improvement because I’ve still got scouts questioning his command and it’s been an issue for Abreu in the past. I have him projected in relief and have added him to Houston’s team page on The Board.

Meandering Thoughts

Kiley wrote today about how he thinks the Rays have identified pitching subtypes that have skills to fit somewhere on the value spectrum between the perhaps unnecessary extremes of typical six or seven-inning starters and single-inning relievers. I’d like to talk about a few other oddball skillsets that might have a place on a 25-man roster as they help perform traditional and necessary on-field tasks but come in atypical packages. I’ve given them names that that the Cespedes Family BBQ kids will improve upon.

Waxahachie
This role, in which a player acts as relief specialist who can also play the outfield, has actually been utilized in the recent past and has been explored by other clubs in the minors even more recently. Outfielders with superlative arm strength or pitchers with plus athleticism could put an extra late-inning hitter or two at platoon disadvantage. The Astros have done this with Tony Sipp, bringing him in to face a lefty before sending him to the outfield while someone else gets righties out, and then returning Sipp to the mound to face another lefty. It seemed Houston might have hoped Rule 5 selection Anthony Gose would have been able to do something similar, but he didn’t make the team out of spring training and was returned to Texas.

Texas also has several candidates for this type of role in Gose (who is also a 70 runner and good defensive center fielder), James Jones (plus runner, plus outfield defense, low-90s with loopy breaking ball on the mound) and Jairo Beras (right-handed, mid-90s fastball, plus-plus raw power) who have all converted to the mound but have one or two other useful skills that could enable them to be deployed in the right situation.

James Jones, LHP, Texas Rangers from Eric Longenhagen on Vimeo.

Former big league OF Jordan Schafer would seem to have fit this archetype as well and he was used in various ways by different clubs (Atlanta played him in the outfield, the Dodgers tried to make him a base-stealing specialist for the 2016 stretch run and St. Louis tried him on the mound) but never in several different roles at once.

Rick Ankiel, who is attempting a big league comeback, is perfect for this kind of role, too. He could shuttle back and forth from the outfield to the mound a few times, while also pinch hitting when it makes sense to have a power-before-hit bat at the plate and pinch-running on occasion.

If someone like this already exists in the Rays system it’s RHP/OF Tanner Dodson, who the Rays wanted announced as a two-way player when he was drafted out of Cal in June. Dodson sits in the mid-90s on the mound and is also a plus runner who hit near the top of Cal’s lineup last year. He’s not polished in center and has a slap/slash approach at the plate, but there’s premium arm strength and speed here.

Pull-Side Infielder
There are certain hitters who don’t pull the ball enough to merit a shift but still pull the ball on the ground more often than hit it the other way and, perhaps, that means your rangiest infield defender should just play on the hitter’s pull side, even if that means swapping your 2B and SS, hitter-by-hitter. I think this idea is half-baked but I’d argue the Brewers are candidates for something like this right now as they’re playing Travis Shaw out of position at second base to shoehorn better hitters into their lineup. In my opinion, they should be swapping Jonathan Schoop and Shaw, hitter by hitter, something to maximize Schoop’s defensive touches and minimize Shaw’s. Perhaps my name for this type of thing is too narrow but the concept interests me. Tampa Bay has a slew of bat-first 2B-types who are either athletically viable all over the field in a dynamic defensive equation like this (Vidal Brujan, Nick Solak, Lucius Fox) or benefit from being hidden by it (Brandon Lowe, Taylor Walls, Jake Cronenworth)

Among the biggest changes in on-field strategy this year is the Rays’ use of an “opener,” or a starting pitcher who isn’t a traditional starter in style and is expected to throw only an inning or two. While certainly notable, the role itself isn’t my interest here. Rather, I’d like to consider how Tampa Bay has cobbled together a staff from Blake Snell and a cast of misfit toys.

From talking to sources in and around the Rays, the use of an “opener” wasn’t a purposeful strategic shift on the organization’s part, but rather an attempt by the club to deploy the talent present on the roster in the most effective way possible. Snell is the only pitcher who won’t get an opener in front of him, while the rest varies game-to-game based on matchups and other factors. Much like the best coach in the NFL, the Rays are using a player’s strengths and building a scheme around it rather than building a roster around a scheme.

Consider this characterization of Bill Belichick’s coaching philosophy by Greg Bedard of SI in the context of Tampa Bay and their pitching strategy:

On both sides of the ball, the scheme is multiple and adaptable both to personnel and to specific opponents. The Patriots are never a team that just ‘does what it does’ on either side of the ball. There must be a level of unpredictability.

Recently acquired former top prospect Tyler Glasnow has been notably better in his 12 innings with the Rays, but the role the right-hander typically fills (the longest outing on his pitching day, usually after the opener) is a one that could create a competitive advantage for the Rays in player procurement.

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David Bote’s pinch-hitting heroics on Sunday night ensured that Cole Hamels‘ sterling start did not go to waste, but for the rest of the Cubs’ rotation, such outings have lately been more the exception than the rule. On Tuesday afternoon against the Brewers at Wrigley Field, Jose Quintana dug his team a three-run hole in the first inning, serving up a leadoff homer to Lorenzo Cain on just his second pitch of the afternoon and, three batters later, allowing a two-run blast to Ryan Braun. Two innings later, Braun added another two-run shot.

Last Saturday, it was Jon Lester allowing two first-inning runs to the Nationals, and nine in 3.2 innings of a 9-4 Cubs loss. On Friday, it was Kyle Hendricks allowing runs in the first and second innings before righting the ship in a 3-2 win. Lately, it’s always something.

Somehow, the Cubs own the National League’s best record (68-50, .576) despite having one of its most disappointing rotations. Including Quintana’s start, the team’s starters collectively rank 10th in the league in ERA (4.20), 12th in WAR (3.8), and 13th in FIP (4.71). Just after the All-Star break, Craig Edwards noted that the rotation’s performance was on pace to be its worst by WAR since 1974, and somehow, despite the team going 13-12 in the second half (that despite being outscored by 28 runs), it has continued to lag:

The starters are 13th among NL clubs in ERA (5.39) and 11th in FIP (4.85) since the All-Star break. The trouble has begun almost immediately; in the first inning, the starters have posted an 8.64 ERA (last in the NL) and a 5.84 FIP (12th).

The Cubs’ survival and success thus far is testament both to their offense, which is cranking out 4.88 runs per game (second in the league) with a 103 wRC+ (first), and to their bullpen, which is second in the league in ERA (3.35) and fifth in FIP (3.84), though the latter unit has been mid-pack thus far in the second half. But whether it’s the added stress of so many postseason innings, the impact of the change in pitching coaches from Chris Bosio to Jim Hickey, or the difficulty of their newcomers in acclimating — and it could well be some combination of all three — the Cubs can’t be brimming with confidence in their costly, underperforming rotation as they look towards September and October. Hamels, with a 1.00 ERA, 1.94 FIP, and 29.0% strikeout rate in three starts since being acquired from the Rangers, is the exception; Edwards has a breakdown of the 34-year-old southpaw’s ace-like performance here.

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If the pitcher for whom they traded went by a different name, the Cubs’ deadline acquisition of a 34-year-old starter with a 5.20 FIP, 4.72 ERA, and near-replacement 0.3 WAR likely wouldn’t have merited much attention. Even knowing that the pitcher in question was Cole Hamels, one could still be forgiven — in light of the left-hander’s recent track record — for a lack of optimism.

A couple weeks later, Hamels has produced three pretty great starts for Chicago. And while, when the Cubs’ traded for Hamels, there was some thought that a more friendly ballpark, better defense, and easier league would all benefit him — and possibly have benefited him — the fact is that he’s also just pitching a lot better than he did with the Rangers.

To get a sense of this version of Hamels versus the Texas one, consider the numbers from his average start with the Rangers this year relative to the three he’s recorded with the Cubs.

Between the relatively high left-on-base percentage and relatively low BABIP, Hamels has probably benefited from a little bit of luck — although the quality of the Cubs’ defense is also a possible factor here, as well. It’s also quite possible the change in park is benefiting Hamels, as he has yet to concede a home run with Chicago after giving up around one per game with Texas.

That said, Hamels has also struck out an extra batter and walked one batter fewer per appearance. That sort of thing probably resides outside the influence of mere environmental changes. And while it might be a result just of random variation, there is some evidence to suggest Hamels is pitching better in his last three games than at any time during the season.

Likely having no direct relationship to the change of scenery is the matter of Hamels’ velocity. As the graph below reveals, he’s throwing the ball harder as a Cub.

Hamels hadn’t topped an average of 94 mph per start since 2016. He’s alerady done that twice in three starts with the Cubs. Added velocity can only help Hamels. Even as he entered his 30s, Hamels put up good marks by this measure, averaging 93-94 mph from 2014 to -16. When he lost some velocity last year, however, his numbers suffered. When the velocity remained lower over the first half of this season, he continued to struggle. He’s throwing harder with the Cubs and, likely as a consequence, has done a better job of getting batters out.

It isn’t just the bump in velocity that appears to have helped Hamels, though. There’s been a change in approach, as well. The biggest difference for the left-hander in terms of pitch selection has been increased usage of the four-seam fastball — at the expense of his sinker, particularly — over the last two starts.

Prioritizing the four-seam over the two-seam seems to have slightly pre-dated the trade Chicago: three of Hamels’ last five starts for the Rangers have a similar disparity. Nor did usage change emerge in any real way during Hamels’ first start with Chicago, either. Over the last two starts, though, the four-seam fastball has been a lot better — and it isn’t just velocity. Hamels has changed the ball’s location, too. The heat map below shows where Hamels was throwing his four-seam to righties with the Rangers and now with the Cubs.

These images are from the pitcher’s perspective. One finds that, with the Rangers, Hamels threw his four-seamer middle and away; with the Cubs, meanwhile, he appears to be making a concerted effort to go inside against righties. Look at the first pitch of the game on Sunday night against Trea Turner.

It’s an inside fastball. Now, look at the second pitch.

Another inside fastball. Now look at the third pitch.

That one was way inside. Hamels then threw a curve down the middle that Turner fouled off. Here is the final pitch of the at-bat.

That pitch was clocked at 96 mph. Hamels threw four fastballs to Turner, and all of them were inside. The harder he throws, the more comfortably he can work inside without the hitter turning on the pitch. And while the sample for Hamels’ secondary pitches remains quite small, he seems to have thrown his changeup out of the zone a little bit more.

Whether this is signal or mere noise, it’s too early to say, but the Cubs’ version of Hamels looks like a pitcher who is attempting to induce more swinging strikes. So far, it is working: Hamels has recorded a whiff on nearly one-third of his changeups with the Cubs. That’s only a bit higher than with the Rangers, but Hamels has given up seven homers on the pitch this year, so pitching further down could help keep the ball in the field of play when contact is made.

Of Hamels’ 23 homers this season, 16 have come against either the change or four-seam fastball, and 22 of 23 homers have gone against righties. The narrative concerning Hamels’ departure from Texas for Chicago centered around the benefits of leaving the Rangers’ ballpark. While we shouldn’t dismiss that narrative entirely, there’s probably more to it than that. Hamels was probably just throwing too many pitches in the middle of the plate, and those pitches tend to get hit the hardest.

Simultaneously increasing the velocity on his fastball and getting the ball inside to righties seems more likely to help Hamels’ home-run troubles than a simply move to Wrigley Field. Keeping his changeup lower should have similar positive effects. A four-seam fastball on the hands and a change low and away leaves a lot of plate for hitters to cover. Cole Hamels seems to have made some early adjustments that have helped him succeed for the Cubs. It remains to be seen if hitters can adjust back. If Hamels is regularly throwing in the mid-90s and hitting his spots, however, those adjustments will be hard to make.

Projecting the Rookie of the Year award is simultaneously easier and more difficult than the Cy Young. It’s easier in the sense that there are fewer rookies than non-rookies and that, in most seasons, there’s a definite top tier of candidates that crowds out the rest of the pack.

What makes it a bit trickier is that the standards for rookies are applied a bit more haphazardly by writers. Because rookie ballots feature only three players — as opposed to five for the Cy Young and 10 for MVP — we see fewer players actually included in the final voting. Ideally, you’d like to bring in all the voters, crack open their skulls, and somehow read their brains to see how everyone would rank at least the top 10 rookies. My lawyers, however, inform me that this is extremely illegal and also totally gross.

In the end, I’m less confident about the Rookie of the Year model than the MVP or Cy Young versions. While, historically, ZiPS identifies about seven of the top 10 MVP and Cy Young vote-getters, the model only gets three of the top five rookies. Hopefully, as the electorate becomes more and more analytically inclined, I’ll be able to improve the model.

The greatest challenge of projecting the AL race is figuring out what to do with Shohei Ohtani. There’s no guidance available on how two-way players ought to be treated, so there’s a lot more guesswork than usual. Comparing apples to oranges is tricky enough — although rendered less tricky by the fact that they’re frequently right next to each other at the grocery store — but how do you treat something that is an apple and an orange at the same time? Applange and orpple both sound terrible.

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Matt Carpenter just hit another home run. Here, look at it:

That home run was hit on August 13, and for Carpenter, it was his career-high 33rd. He had set a new career high with his 29th, and so this is all just uncharted territory. Right now, Carpenter leads the National League in wRC+. He also leads the National League in Statcast’s expected wOBA, so it’s not like this is all luck. Carpenter has been absolutely outstanding, and he’s likely to generate support for the league MVP. He’s helped to fuel the Cardinals’ recent run toward a wild-card spot, and heaven only knows where the club would be without him.

I should also point out that, according to Statcast again, Carpenter’s top exit velocity this season ranks in the 35th percentile. We’re mostly accustomed to sluggers who slug the ball. Carpenter would never be confused for another Giancarlo Stanton. So let’s quickly walk through how Carpenter makes this all work. To a certain extent this is all pretty basic, but Carpenter happens to be one of the world leaders in bat control.

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