Meeting new people is always a bit awkward, so it’s best to just jump in. My name is Meg Rowley, and I’m the new managing editor of The Hardball Times and a new writer for FanGraphs. After a stint at Lookout Landing, I’ve spent the last three years as a writer at Baseball Prospectus, where I wrote about topics ranging from diversity in front office hiring, to Adam Lind (maybe) farting, to the problems with replay review, to the faces you see when the Twins cause a long delay at Dodger Stadium.

But before I wrote those pieces, I came to baseball, as so many where I’m from do, through my parents and the late-90s Mariners. That team taught me about joy and winning, but also about thrilling disappointment and the small moments that snuff out a season. Smart, tenacious writers here and elsewhere taught me to look at the game through a sabermetric lens. And now, David Appelman has trusted me to supply and shape some of your baseball words. I am incredibly grateful for the opportunity and will strive to prove myself worthy of that trust.

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For the past seven years, I’ve had the honor and privilege of writing for FanGraphs and its associated blogs, RotoGraphs, NotGraphs, and The Hardball Times. For the seven years prior to that, I had the honor and privilege of working for the Colorado Rockies Baseball Club. That’s a pretty neat coincidence. Looking back at the beginning of my adult life, I also spent seven years prior to joining the Rockies either in college or working a series of short-term jobs in order to build up a career. Triple sevens.

So, it seems like every seven years — or, as I’m approaching that seventh year — I look for a new challenge. This time around has been no different. Leaving the best job you’ve ever had is certainly not an easy thing to do, but for the second time, I’m about to do so. I am bidding FanGraphs and THT (mostly) farewell, as I take on what will most assuredly be my greatest challenge to date — opening up an independent bookstore.

Around this time last year, word began to spread that the bookstore in my town, Acton, Mass., was going to be closing. That was hard to fathom, since it had been in business for over 20 years. As I spoke with friends and neighbors around town, the feeling was the same: “Where do we buy books now?” And so my wheels started turning.

The result, barring last-minute hiccups, will be The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, which I hope to open at some point in March.

The store’s website is but a humble splash page at the moment. Once it’s set up, though, you will be able to purchase books from it online.

While I’m excited for my new (ad)venture, leaving FanGraphs and THT is going to be incredibly bittersweet. Looking at the Blog Roll recently, I realized I’ve worked with nearly every person on it. The relationships I’ve formed with my colleagues past and present, and with you, the readers, are something I will cherish for the rest of my life.

First and foremost, I have to thank David Appelman, not only for approving my initial hire as a writer, but then also agreeing to let me typeset The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2013 and, after that, agreeing to let me help lead THT’s transition to its current iteration and take over as managing editor. In between and after, he has trusted me with jobs like planning company trips, designing/ordering t-shirts, and managing interns. These were jobs that I was not always qualified to perform. I will miss working with him very, very much.

I’ll also desperately miss working with the editing team at THT — Joe Distelheim, Jason Linden, Dustin Nosler, and Greg Simons. Each one of them has stood by the site through thick and thin, and each one has bailed me out of plenty of jams.

Though I haven’t worked with her as long, Michelle Jay has become an invaluable person in my work life. Whatever the task at hand, I know that Michelle will get it done quickly, competently, and with a smile.

Of course, there’s all the people who I work with on the FanGraphs side: Carson Cistulli, Sean Dolinar, David Laurila, Eric Longenhagen, Chris Mitchell, Eno Sarris, Travis Sawchick, Jeff Sullivan, and Jeff Zimmerman chief among them. There’s also the people who I work with to produce stuff behind the scenes: Mary Craig, Mina Dunn, Jen Mac Ramos, Sarah Wexler, and intern Bailey Winston. There are countless others who I do and/or have worked with at FanGraphs and THT. I started building a list of a few particular people, but that list started to snowball, so I’ll simply thank Dave Studeman for trusting me to succeed him at THT. I’ve really had the pleasure and privilege of working with a tremendous amount of tremendously talented people.

Finally, there’s Dave Cameron. That Dave hired me in the first place is a bit breathtaking, knowing my credentials at the time and the credentials that would be subsequently required to write for the site. Objectively speaking, Dave never should have hired me. That he didn’t fire me once he did hire me is just as breathtaking. As he has reminded me, when he hired me, I claimed I would write for the site on a daily basis. I never did that. In fact, I think three original pieces per week (not counting chats) was probably my high-water mark, and for most of my tenure it was two or fewer. I owe Dave a great deal for not only hiring me, but for sticking with me as well.

Before this piece gets too sappy, I should note that my successor is a lot better at all this than me, so FanGraphs and THT are definitely not going to feel a pinch from my departure.

I should also note that I’m not leaving completely, hence the “For Now” in the title. I titled it as such because David Appelman has graciously agreed to let me start the FanGraphs Book Club. We won’t begin right away — I need to get the store open first — but hopefully around the start of the regular season, I will be back, with the goal of hosting a chat once every four-to-six weeks, on a particular baseball book that we’ll choose together. The idea is that we’ll pick a new baseball book ahead of time, and that book will be available for purchase through my store — in person and online — at a discounted rate. Hopefully, we can have a lot of fun with it, the same way we always have had in the FanGraphs After Dark chats.

I could keep writing this post forever. FanGraphs will always feel like home to me. But in the interest of (relative) brevity, I’ll stop here. Thanks as always, for reading and interacting with my work — it means everything to me. See you in a few months.

While everyone waits for the thaw of the free-agent market, the Dodgers, Royals, and White Sox got together on a three-team trade Thursday evening.

The L.A. Times‘ Andy McCullough broke the news on the deal, as part of which the Royals send lefty reliever Scott Alexander to the Dodgers for prospects Erick Mejia and Trevor Oaks. The Dodgers ship lefty reliever Luis Avilan and $3 million to the White Sox. The Royals are also reportedly moving Joakim Soria and $1 million to the White Sox in something of a salary dump.

While there are quite a few moving parts, the focus within this post will be on Alexander, an interesting arm who could fill a need — and fill it cheaply — for one of the top clubs in baseball. Lefty reliever Tony Watson is a free agent, and the Dodgers are attempting to stay under the luxury tax. In giving up prospects and cash, the Dodgers must also feel Alexander is an upgrade over Avilan, who is projected to make $2.3 million in arbitration according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Alexander, a pre-arbitration arm with five years of control remaining, might not only fill a need cheaply for the next couple of seasons but also exceptionally well. While, on the one hand, the Dodgers are trading a lefty who misses bats, they’re also adding a lefty who might have more upside in today’s offensive environment.

In a year marked by fly balls, home runs, launch angles, and juiced balls, Alexander was, by some measures, the top ground-ball arm in the game in 2017. The approach led him to a 2.48 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 56 ERA- last season over 69 innings. He emerged, quietly, as one of the better relievers in the game.

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Recently, St. Louis general manager John Mozeliak was asked about his starting rotation in 2018. He said he was mostly content to go to battle with the players he had. Consider this, for example, from Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

It’s unclear if there’s a design behind the order in which Mozeliak names the staff, but he does single out Adam Wainwright as a somewhat unknown variable.

Now there’s a rumor that the Cardinals are in on Jake Arrieta, which, especially when seen next to this discussion of pitcher roles next year, might mean that the 36-year-old Wainwright is losing his grip on his rotation spot.

As bad as last year was for the veteran Cardinal righty — and it was, since he was somewhere between the 18th-worst and 36th-worst starting pitcher who threw at least 120 innings last year — the way the season progressed may have been even more disheartening than even the overall results.

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This past season’s offensive environment would have been hard to predict four years ago. The 2014 campaign was a pitcher’s paradise. That year, teams scored fewer runs per game than in any season since 1981 and posted the lowest slugging percentage since 1992. Home runs were down, strikeouts were up, and people were left wondering what the future held. Many in the game were of the belief that baseball was entering a new era, one in which speed would play an increasingly important role.

Needless to say, that didn’t happen. Instead we’ve seen an explosion of power (accompanied by a continued rise in strikeouts). For the majority of teams, speed has become less, not more, of a priority.

I asked a selection of MLB managers about this at the Winter Meetings. Prefacing my question with a mention of the post-2014 predictions, I solicited their opinions on the role of speed in today’s game.

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Jeff Banister, Texas Rangers: “There are two elements to speed. There is speed on the bases and speed on defense. I see it every day. It’s a really nice concept on television with Statcast — we can track guys now at a greater rate. I think the element of speed is crucial in the game, whether it’s on defense or offense.

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Last offseason, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon signed contracts totaling $228 million. More money was guaranteed to that threesome than had ever been committed to all free-agent relievers in a single offseason. Nor did that represent the end of the spending: another seven relievers signed multi-year deals totaling more than $100 million. Overall, last winter’s $420 million outlay on relief pitching nearly doubled the high-water mark from previous seasons.

This offseason, there is no Chapman or Jansen type of reliever worthy of such a significant investment. Wade Davis is probably the equivalent of last year’s version of Melancon. Not surprisingly, he recently signed a Melancon-type contract. Even without the best closers in the game available, however, relievers seem poised to set another mark for free-agent bullpen spending.

There are still a few higher-end relievers available in Greg Holland and Addison Reed. After those two, there are also a handful of late-inning guys who seem likely to receive guaranteed deals for smaller amounts, even if they don’t get multi-year guarantees or eight-figure salaries. So while we aren’t yet done, it’s clear that the reliever market is a lot further along than the rest of the free-agent class, so we can get a good idea of how this year’s numbers compare to years past.

The graph below shows the number of multi-year free agent deals relievers have signed over the past seven offseasons, including this one.

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Everybody knows that next year’s crop of free agents is going to be spectacular. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado headline the class, of course, but Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, and Andrew McCutchen will all be available, as well. Clayton Kershaw, meanwhile, will have the option of opting out of the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. The collection of talent is impressive. The contracts they’re all likely to receive are expected to be equally so.

By contrast, the prospect “merely” of Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer, and J.D. Martinez — that is, the top names of the 2017-18 offseason — isn’t as striking. Had things unfolded differently, however, this offseason would have facilitated a free-agent bonanza of its own.

The Dodgers and Yankees appear motivated to avoid the competitive-balance tax right now, but would they be doing so if Mike Trout were available? How about Jose Altuve or Paul Goldschmidt? This isn’t some fantasyland where every player is a free agent. If Altuve, Goldschmidt, and Trout hadn’t signed team-friendly contract extensions, all three would be free agents right now. They aren’t the only ones, either.

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Eric Hosmer has waited some time for a market to come together for his services. Part of the reason for the delay is that large-market clubs like the Dodgers and Yankees are not in need of a first baseman and are trying to remain below the luxury-tax threshold. Part of it is that teams are learning to better wait out free agents. (By Jan. 3 of last winter, nine of FanGraphs’ top-10 free agents had signed. This year? Three.) Hosmer’s agent Scott Boras famously said that there should be no concern for a free agent if he’s “the steak,” making the analogy to the main course of a fine dinner. There is some debate, however, as to whether Hosmer is a steak or a lesser cut.

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Outfielder Cam Perkins was claimed off waivers by the Seattle Mariners about a month ago now. As deals go, it wasn’t particularly notable for anyone but the parties immediately involved. Originally selected by Philadelphia in the sixth round of the 2012 draft, Perkins has exhibited signs of promise during his ascent through the minors, demonstrating a capacity for contact that’s uncommon for players who also possess his game power. Perkins has also complemented that offensive profile with sufficient athleticism to play if not necessarily to thrive in center field. He’s an interesting player. Flawed, but interesting.

That said, the Phillies’ 40-man roster was full en route to the Winter Meetings. If the club had any designs on selecting a player in the Rule 5 draft — or creating flexibility for any other reason — it was necessary to part ways with at least one player. Whatever Perkins’ virtues, Philadelphia also possesses a number of interesting other outfielders. Interesting and, presumably, less flawed.

So now the Mariners have him — and could very well have some use for him in 2018. As for how useful Perkins could be to Seattle, there are a few ways to estimate that. The prorated Steamer projections, for example, call for him to produce 0.3 WAR for every 600 plate appearances currently. Chris Mitchell’s KATOH system, meanwhile, forecasts 2.2 WAR over Perkins’ six team-controlled years — or, roughly 0.4 wins per annum. Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, reached by way of talking across the room, gives Perkins a 40 Future Value grade, or roughly equivalent to one win per season at his peak.

Those are all valid methods for estimating possible value. What I propose to do here is provide another one. Perhaps less useful but not entirely without worth.

Major-league clubs have pretty sophisticated means by which to estimate talent. As such, they’re unlikely ever to waive a player who could serve some real use to their club. At the same time, because of those sophisticated evaluation methods, prospective “claiming” teams are unlikely to allocate a spot on their 40-man roster to a player incapable of serving some minimal use to their club. A player, then, who’s been both placed on and then claimed off waivers hypothetically occupies a somewhat narrow band of value. The very fact that a player has been waived and claimed ought, theoretically, to reveal how the league is evaluating him.

Assuming that line of reason has some merit, let’s attempt to calculate (roughly) what that value is. A reasonably careful examination of the data reveals that 107 different players have changed hands by way of waivers over the last three offseasons (where “offseason” is defined as November 1 to March 30th). What sort of value did those players provide in the season following their waiver claim?

There are a few ways to answer the question. First, let’s just look at the best players by this criteria. Here are the top-10 seasons produced by a player waived and claimed during the last three offseason.

Selected off waivers by Cincinnati just before the start of the 2017 campaign, Scooter Gennett proceeded to produce a career season for the Reds, hitting 27 home runs (including four in a single game) and recording more than two wins for his new club. He enters the 2018 season as Cincinnati’s starting second baseman.

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In 2017, I once again had the pleasure of interviewing hundreds of people within baseball. Many of their words were shared via the FanGraphs Q&A series, while others came courtesy of my Sunday Notes column. Continuing what has become an annual tradition, here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations.

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“Jerry (Dipoto) is extremely professional about returning calls and texts, open to ideas, and not afraid to make moves, particularly in terms of trading prospects. It’s amazing how many conversations get shot down almost immediately, but Jerry will listen and engage.” — John Coppolella, Braves GM, January 2017

“I think you’d be surprised. There are a lot of hitters in the big leagues right now that can’t hit a good fastball. Because of their status, everybody thinks they can crush a fastball, so pitchers are reluctant to throw it to them. They don’t have to be.” — Jim Leyland, former manager, January 2017

“You end up with a really ugly, flat slider. It’s basically a nothing fastball that doesn’t do anything except go about 400 feet. To the hitter, it’s a cookie. As a pitcher, you don’t want to serve up cookies.” — Larry Andersen, Phillies broadcaster, January 2017

“Bobby (Valentine) left him in. Sojo gets a hit, and we lose. They win and the World Series is over. The first thing Bobby says to me is, ‘Hey, don’t forget now; you’ve got to cover my ass.’” — Dave Wallace, former pitching coach, January 2017 Read the rest of this entry »