Archive for Dodgers

When it comes to thinking about the best pitchers in the American League this year, the names that jump out to most might be along these lines: Felix Hernandez (always awesome and having one of his better seasons), Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez (two non-Verlander Tigers having big years), Yu Darvish (strikeout machine), Chris Sale (great pitcher on a bad team), and Derek Holland (finally living up to his stuff in a hitter’s park). One pitcher that would probably come up less frequently is Hiroki Kuroda. He probably would not be totally ignored (especially by Yankees fans), but he has flown somewhat under the radar (has never made an All-Star game) for whatever reasons, some having to do the nature of his performance, some not.

External factors aside, an examination of Kuroda’s 2013 performance shows why he might not get as much attention for the year-end awards, but a deeper look also reveals his worthiness.

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Winning streaks are fun, but they are usually gone just as quickly as they come. The Dodgers’ road winning streak, however, is nearing a month in length. It is now tied for the third-longest road winning streak in history, and a sweep of the Cardinals this week will give them the record outright. Since the record was established in 1917 and tied just once, in 1984, that is a pretty cool feat. Getting win #17 might be tough, as the matchup is Ricky Nolasco vs. Shelby Miller, but whether or not they get the record, it’s been a fun stretch of Dodgers baseball, and one that has put them firmly back in the pennant race. As such, I thought we could look back at some of the more important moments of the streak today. Read the rest of this entry »

While a couple of trades were executed for seemingly reasonable prices yesterday, the asking price on deals has generally seemed higher than in past years. With that in mind, the Dodgers took a step to try and improve their club without making Casey Blake for Carlos Santana Part Duex by signing free-agent reliever Brian Wilson. It’s a no-risk deal on both sides, and if it works it could pay dividends for the Dodgers down the stretch.

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Here’s a fun little game for you to play. Navigate your browser to the FanGraphs player leaderboards, and then click on the shortstops button. What you see will be automatically sorted in descending order by WAR, and here’s the current top five:

• Ian Desmond
• Jean Segura
• Everth Cabrera
• Jhonny Peralta
• Yunel Escobar

Fine talents, all of them, even if none of them blow you away with name value. Name value doesn’t win championships, and all these guys have been major contributors to their teams from a premium position. But you’ll notice that when you went to this page, the readout included only “Qualified” players. Go ahead and remove that constraint. Let the page re-load. Now there’s a new top five:

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On Saturday in DC, there was a showdown between the Dodgers and the Nationals, as two teams with high expectations looked to kick-start strong second halves. The Dodgers won 3-1, but that’s not important, for this. The matchup on the mound was Zack Greinke vs. Gio Gonzalez. In the top of the third, Greinke batted and led off with a first-pitch double to deep center. Mark Ellis, Yasiel Puig, and Adrian Gonzalez would leave him stranded. In the top of the fifth, Greinke batted again and drilled a second-pitch single up the middle. Around him, Tim Federowicz, Ellis, and Puig struck out swinging. That night, Hanley Ramirez led the Dodgers with three hits, and Greinke was alone in second with two.

By now you might’ve heard something about this. After reading that first paragraph, you’ve certainly heard something about this. Zack Greinke has been having a hell of a year at the plate. Obviously with pitchers batting the samples are always tiny, but that generally doesn’t stop pitchers from posting miserable offensive statistics. Greinke, at this writing, is batting .406. No other pitcher in baseball is batting at least .400. No other pitcher in baseball is batting at least .300. No other pitcher in baseball has a wRC+ in the triple digits.

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Everyone remembers Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. The duo pitched 11 years together in Brooklyn and in Los Angeles. Together, the pair  helped the Dodgers reach the Fall Classic five times, three of which their team won. But there’s a good chance  they wouldn’t have won their third and World Series title without the help of their third wheel, Claude Osteen.

One of just 56 players to debut in the majors at or before the age of 17, Osteen pitched  18 seasons for the Reds, Senators, Astros, Cardinals and White Sox — in addition to the Dodgers. It was there, in Los Angeles, where his presence was felt most. The Dodgers acquired Osteen in a trade with the Senators that included Frank Howard, so they didn’t exactly get him cheap. But the Dodgers certainly got their money’s worth, especially since it took several years before Howard became a star. Osteen, meanwhile, was a Dodger from 25 to 33 years old and spent the bulk that time outworking his competitors.

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The last time I wrote about Edge% it was in the context of the Tampa Bay Rays using it to get their pitchers into more favorable counts on 1-1. But now I want to take that topic and drill a little deeper to understand how often edge pitches are taken for called strikes.

Overall, pitches taken on the edge are called strikes 69% of the time. But that aggregate measure hides some pretty substantial differences. Going further on that idea, I wanted to see how the count impacts the likelihood of a pitch on the edge being called a strike.

Here are the results:

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Maybe you haven’t heard quite as much about Yasiel Puig lately. I don’t know, I don’t know who you read and what you watch. But it’s hard for a player to sustain that level of coverage and interest, as Puig seemed to be absolutely everywhere for his first few weeks. Justifiably, of course. But Tuesday was a big day for Puig, in a sense — against the Diamondbacks, he drew two unintentional walks, for the first time in his young career. Previously, he had just four. And in case you thought Puig was slowing down, this month is new but he’s slugged .500. He hasn’t spent a day in the majors with a three-digit OPS. Puig is still excelling, and the Dodgers are still succeeding around him.

About those two walks, though. Walks aren’t as sexy as singles or doubles or triples or dingers or outfield assists, but walks are indicative of some degree of patience, of discipline. There’s reason for the Dodgers to be particularly encouraged by the bases on balls, because Puig is new, and because Puig is new, pitchers are in the process of adjusting to him. Baseball, as we’ve come to learn, is a game of constant adjustments, all career long, but perhaps the biggest adjustments come early on, and there’s word out on Puig. At least, that’s what the numbers are saying. Puig hasn’t stopped hitting, but pitchers have changed the way they attack.

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For fans of Carlos Marmol, it’s been a confusing few days, even beyond the usual confusion baseline. On Tuesday, Marmol was shipped from the Cubs to the Dodgers. On Wednesday, there were initial reports the Dodgers were cutting ties, but now it’s clear they simply intend to send him to the minor leagues for a little while, in theory to get him “straightened out.” Marmol, at some point, should pitch for the Dodgers, and they have more interest in him than they had in the now-departed Matt Guerrier. Cynics will note that the solution to an inconsistent Brandon League isn’t adding another one, but if the odds are X% that League turns it around, the odds are greater that one of League and Marmol turns it around.

Of course, Marmol was just designated for assignment. There’s not a lot there, beyond the strikeouts, the frequency of which is plummeting. Since 2011, among pitchers with at least 150 innings, Marmol ranks 14th-worst in OBP allowed, at .355. He’s hanging around the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Derek Lowe and Edinson Volquez, and though Marmol generally limits batting and slugging, his career isn’t on the way up. Marmol, probably, can be useful, but since 2011 he has a 105 FIP-. Guerrier has a 109 FIP-. Lots of relievers can be useful and Marmol isn’t going to pitch the Dodgers into first place.

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Well friends, we are now approaching that time of year where a significant drop in a pitcher’s velocity passes the 50% threshold in terms of signaling that they will finish the year down at least one full mph.

The table above breaks out the percent of pitchers who experience at least a 1 mph drop in their four-seam fastball velocity in a month relative to that same month a year ago and who also went on to finish the season down a full 1 mph. It also shows the relative risk — meaning, the increased likelihood that a pitcher will experience a true velocity loss at season’s end when compared to those pitchers that didn’t lose 1 mph in that month.

For example, pitchers that lost velocity in May finished the season down a full 1 mph 47% of the time, compared to just 6% that didn’t lose 1 mph in May — an increased likelihood of 7.8.

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