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What If Baseball Had a Penalty Box?

I don’t watch a lot of hockey, but when I do, my favorite part of the game is when grown men sit in timeout. They have an angry little fracas and then are asked to cool down. In-game punishment is a tricky business: too light a touch, and violating rules risks becomes acceptable, too worth it. But go too strong, and the game becomes about the penalty; it’s not just an ump show but worse, a slog.

That’s part of the genius of the penalty box, the Sin Bin: removing one player from the ice spurs action. Your favorite team might score a goal. Perhaps you’ll be gifted a defensive highlight, made all the more impressive for playing down a man. But the true insight of the penalty box is a more basic one: we only ever stay really mad at things for a few minutes at a time.

There are exceptions, of course. Grudge holders, deviants. Last spring, we learned that Hunter Strickland carried his rage toward Bryce Harper through three years and a World Series parade. Some guys are just grumps. But most aren’t. Think about being a kid and playing in the yard with your cousin. Your cousin throws mud at you. Startled and angry, you throw grass back. You’re separated and sent to your corners to think about what you’ve done, but once you do, you’re ready to play again. How big a deal is mud anyway? You were dirty anyhow. Perhaps you should go eat worms together.

In the aftermath of the Strickland-Harper brawl, Sam Miller speculated on Effectively Wild that perhaps Harper would have better served by taking off his shoe and throwing it rather than chucking his batting helmet. He might have looked like less of a doofus, but the moment Harper bent down to undo his laces, it would have been over. The fight doesn’t happen. Reason returns. “Wait, what am I doing?” Bryce stops being entirely mad and starts being partially embarrassed. He remembers he’s a homeowner. He just needed a little timeout to change the whole afternoon.

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2018 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
One will notice, upon a cursory examination of the projections below, that five of the Royals’ position players are forecast to produce roughly two or more wins in 2018. A closer inspection of the names attached to those figures, however, reveals that three of them — Lorenzo Cain (579 PA, 3.1 zWAR), Eric Hosmer (654, 1.9), and Mike Moustakas (559, 2.5) — appear here not because they’re currently employed by the Royals, but rather because they were formerly employed by the Royals, have been granted free agency, and simply remain unsigned as of January 8th.

Indeed, of the players currently under contract with the club, only Whit Merrifield (648, 2.5) and Salvador Perez (525, 2.6) are projected to record more than two wins next season. Perhaps more remarkably, ZiPS calls for only a single other hitter, Alex Gordon (498, 1.4), to cross even the one-win threshold. Five of the club’s most likely starting nine, meanwhile, feature WAR projections that round to zero. As presently constructed, this team appears almost to be an experiment designed to test the validity of “replacement level” as a concept.

Of some interest here, in a way that isn’t wholly relevant to the Royals, is ZiPS’ assessment of Eric Hosmer. On Friday, Craig Edwards endeavored to give Scott Boras the benefit of the doubt in the latter’s appraisal of Hosmer’s value. With a number of caveats and conditions, he was nearly able to support Boras’s claims with logic, but even that optimistic calculus was based on the assumption that Hosmer is at least a three-win player right now. Dan Szymborski’s model suggests that isn’t the case.

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Have We Passed Peak Tommy John?

There was a fear back in 2014 and 2015 that professional baseball was merely experiencing the early stages of a Tommy John epidemic.

There were concerns that sports specialization, the focus on velocity over feel for the craft, was stressing arms even before they arrived in the majors. It seemed possible that rising league-average velocity marks — for which there’s now a new record set each year — were creating demands on pitchers’ elbows that their bodies couldn’t withstand.

Tommy John surgeries reached a record level in 2014, a level surpassed again in 2015. Velocity kept inching up. Pitchers with medical histories and red flags kept flowing into the game via the draft. Said Pirates GM Neal Huntington to this former newspaperman in 2014:

“They were blown away by the number of significant injuries high school and college pitchers had this year compared to three years ago, five years ago. The level of injuries is growing exponentially,” Huntington said. “We are just starting to get to the front edge of this (Tommy John surgery) wave. We might not even be through the worst of this yet.”

That was not an encouraging sentiment from someone with a commanding view of the game. The wave of Tommy John surgeries did seem to have become an epidemic that was growing in strength, one which would cost both pitchers and teams millions upon millions of dollars.

And then a funny thing happened: the surgeries began to decline.

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The Best of FanGraphs: January 2-6, 2018

Each week, we publish in the neighborhood of 75 articles across our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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KATOH Projects the Scott Alexander Return

The Dodgers, Royals, and White Sox swung a three-team, six-player trade yesterday involving relievers Scott Alexander, Luis Avilan, and Joakim Soria plus three prospects: Trevor Oaks, Erick Mejia and Jake Peter.

Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have provided scouting reports for the prospects changing hands. Below are the KATOH projections for those same players. WAR figures account for each player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

*****

Trevor Oaks, RHP, Kansas City (Profile)

KATOH: 3.4
KATOH+: 2.6

Oaks caught KATOH’s eye last year when he put up a 2.74 ERA with decent peripherals across 24 starts in the Dodgers system. An oblique injury effectively ended his 2017 season in July, but not before he recorded a 3.49 FIP and 21% strikeout rate in 84 Triple-A innings. Oaks turns 25 in March but has succeeded as a starter at the highest level of the minors.

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The Free-Agent Frenzy We Didn’t Get This Year

This guy would have been a free agent this offseason had he not signed an extension.
(Photo: Ian D’Andrea)

Everybody knows that next year’s crop of free agents is going to be spectacular. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado headline the class, of course, but Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, and Andrew McCutchen will all be available, as well. Clayton Kershaw, meanwhile, will have the option of opting out of the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. The collection of talent is impressive. The contracts they’re all likely to receive are expected to be equally so.

By contrast, the prospect “merely” of Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer, and J.D. Martinez — that is, the top names of the 2017-18 offseason — isn’t as striking. Had things unfolded differently, however, this offseason would have facilitated a free-agent bonanza of its own.

The Dodgers and Yankees appear motivated to avoid the competitive-balance tax right now, but would they be doing so if Mike Trout were available? How about Jose Altuve or Paul Goldschmidt? This isn’t some fantasyland where every player is a free agent. If Altuve, Goldschmidt, and Trout hadn’t signed team-friendly contract extensions, all three would be free agents right now. They aren’t the only ones, either.

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2018 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Twins’ surprising 2017 campaign, which included a place in the Wild Card game, was a product in no small part of the club’s most promising young players translating their immense talents into on-field success. Byron Buxton (projected for 538 PA and 3.2 zWAR in 2018), Eddie Rosario (578, 1.6), and Miguel Sano (531, 2.7) combined for 8.3 WAR as a group. ZiPS calls for the triumvirate to fall short of that mark in 2018 but to still approach the eight-win threshold — all at basically no cost to the team.

Buxton remains a source of great interest, of course. After a series of fits and starts, he managed to hit well enough this past season to allow his other skills to carry him. In 2017, he recorded the highest WAR (3.5) of any player who also produced a below-average batting line (90 wRC+, in this case). Dan Szymborski’s computer suggests he could once again earn that strange distinction, projecting Buxton for a 90 wRC+ and 3.2 WAR.

Finally, it should be noted that ZiPS projects plate-appearance totals using only the data from a player’s observed track record and is agnostic to news of injury, etc. Accordingly, there has been no attempt here to account for how allegations of sexual assault might affect Miguel Sano’s playing time. Which is good because, whatever the virtues of Szymborski’s model, contending with fraught and difficult and nuanced social conversations isn’t (and needn’t be) among them.

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Rockies End Year by Signing Market’s Top Closer

Wade Davis joins what could very well be history’s most expensive bullpen. (Photo: Keith Allison)

The Colorado Rockies have been rumored for a month-plus to be on the verge of signing a free-agent closer who used to pitch for the Kansas City Royals. Today, they did just that — but it’s not the reliever you might have thought. Instead of re-signing Greg Holland, they opted to add Wade Davis to the fold. Jeff Passan reports:

On its own, there’s a lot to consider here — and that’s without even accounting for the terms of the deal and what those terms mean for the Rockies. Once again, Passan:

This can really only go one of two ways. The first possible outcome — and the one that’s more probable — is that it blows up in Colorado’s face, becoming a cautionary tale like the Mike HamptonDenny Neagle signing spree of Dec. 2000. The second is that the Rockies are on to something here. Yes, they may have just assembled the most expensive bullpen in history — certainly it will be one of the most expensive — but they have the opportunity to ride with that for this year at least because of all the minimum-contract pitchers they have.

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The Best of FanGraphs: December 18-22, 2017

Each week, we publish in the neighborhood of 75 articles across our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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Daniel Nava and the Human Rain Delays

Earlier this offseason, as part of an info-taining post illustrating the influence a single batter can exert on game pace, Jeff discovered that Marwin Gonzalez was taking f-o-r-e-v-e-r between pitches this past season.

I followed up shortly after that with a piece in defense of pitchers, as I suspected much of the blame for the slowing pace of play could be assigned to batters.

While the hot stove is slowly warming this offseason, let us not forget that the biggest change we’ll observe in major-league stadiums next season could be the appearance of pitch clocks. Buster Olney reported last month that the introduction of a pitch clock is a distinct possibility.

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