Archive for Featured

Ever since Voros McCracken revealed his DIPS theory, stating that pitchers had little control over the outcomes of batted balls, people have been looking for exceptions to the rules. The first ones identified were knuckleballers, who consistently and relisably post some of the lowest BABIPs of any pitchers during their careers. From there, it was found that flyball pitchers, especially ones who generate a lot of pop-ups, can also run relatively low BABIPs over long periods of time. And then there are guys like Bronson Arroyo, who don’t easily fit into a bucket of pitcher-types, but managed to suppress outs on balls in play for over a few thousand innings, showing that he had some ability to induce weak contact.

Often times, the guys who fit the mold of a FIP-beater are guys who wouldn’t be in the big leagues if they hadn’t figured out how to exploit this advantage. The list of guys that we have to write the “FIP is wrong about them” disclaimer currently includes the likes of Chris Young, Marco Estrada, Jered Weaver, Tyler Clippard, and Darren O’Day. You’ll notice that these guys all throw in the 80s, and in Weaver and Young’s case, the low-80s. The guys who don’t conform to the normal range of BABIP variance use their ability to generate weak contact to offset their lack of stuff. They can’t dominate the strike zone — O’Day is the exception to that point — so they get batters out by allowing the kinds of contact that their fielders can get to. I’m sure they’d rather just strike everyone out, but since they can’t do that, they’ve learned to succeed in another way.

But while Weaver and Estrada are still chugging along, soaking up innings and keeping their teams in the ballgame, there’s a new king of weak contact in Major League Baseball. And to make life unfair, he also happens to throw 95.

Read the rest of this entry »

Possible headline from 2013: Tyler White Is Mashing

Possible headline from 2014: Tyler White Is Mashing

Possible headline from 2015: Tyler White Is Mashing

Possible headline from right now: Tyler White Is Mashing

The best rookie hitter in baseball this year has not been Trevor Story. The best rookie hitter in baseball this year has been Tyler White, by nearly 60 points of wRC+ over Story. Maybe you haven’t heard about him as much because his last name doesn’t make for a convenient headline, but it’s happened. Tyler White is mashing, just like he has at every single level at which he’s played.

Despite that, less than a month ago, right before the start of the regular season, I wrote a post tossing some cold water on the White hype train after he’d won the Astros’ first-base job out of Spring Training. It’s not that I didn’t want to believe White could continue his mashing ways. I naively want to believe every player can succeed. It’s just that I’d found some historical precedent that compelled me to believe White’s skill set wouldn’t do a great job translating.

A brief recap of the aforementioned post: White is a first baseman, one who has typically relied moreso on controlling the strike zone for his minor-league success rather than hitting for great power. To determine the implications of that sort of profile, I looked at the historical precedent of first baseman who entered the league with plus walk and strikeout rates but below-average power, and found that those types of guys typically have had trouble translating. It’s a skillset that’s fine for a player who offers defensive and base-running value, but without more pop, these types of guys have had trouble sticking at first base at the major-league level. The article concluded as such:

From this one method of evaluating things, he looks like a good major-league hitter, just maybe not for a first baseman, and one whose approach works better in the minors without additional power. Then again, the next time he fails to exceed expectations with the bat will be the first.

Well. He’s exceeding expectations again. And it’s because he’s hitting for power. In 15 career major-league games, White’s already hit five homers, after having never hit more than eight at any one minor-league level, or more than 15 in any one minor-league season. His .380 isolated slugging percentage is top-five in baseball.

Now, of course, it’s been two weeks. You’ve already had that thought at least three times while reading this article. The projections already view White a bit differently, but, because it’s only been two weeks, not too differently. ZiPS has bumped his estimated true-talent ISO from .130 to .151. Steamer went from .149 to .156. The rest-of-season projections haven’t changed drastically, but the rest-of-season projections are never going to change too drastically after just two weeks. What has changed drastically is the updated projections.

Read the rest of this entry »

Any half-decent statistical analysis will tell you that Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. This is just about inarguable. Kershaw has pitched at an unbelievable level, and he’s been able to do it for an unbelievable amount of time. He has the peak and the track record, so while there have been other great pitchers, there aren’t any Kershaws, by the numbers. This is why Kershaw gets the best projections. Projections are our statistical measures of true talent, and Kershaw’s talent is alone by itself.

I know, I know, Jake Arrieta. And, yeah, I know, Chris Sale, and Jacob deGrom, and so on. I mean no disrespect to anyone else. Kershaw has just had the strongest argument, so I’m using him here as the point of comparison. Because, you see, we have a new potential contender. We’ve all noticed Noah Syndergaard, and people are starting to ask questions. I see it on Twitter. I saw it in Dave’s most recent FanGraphs chat. I heard it on the Effectively Wild podcast. The big question, which seems absurd but improbably isn’t: is Syndergaard now better than Kershaw? Is Syndergaard suddenly the best?

Let me be straight with you: I haven’t decided. Part of me thinks it’s stupid to even consider. The rest of me thinks we could be on to something. At least, Syndergaard does have a real argument. I’m going to lay it out below as I try to talk myself through the issue.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’d just oblige me by briefly viewing one screenshot and four .gifs, I believe I’ll be able to neatly tie together all the different things that have been going on with J.D. Martinez this season. Let these five visuals serve as a reference point for the remainder of this post.

First up, the screenshot, revealing what the FOX Sports Detroit broadcast team decided to reveal about Martinez’s first at-bat, in graphic form:

Information gathered: the batter’s name is J.D. Martinez, and this is what his face looks like. J.D. Martinez flew out in his first at-bat. There is one out and nobody on in the fourth inning. J.D. Martinez is having an incredible season so far. The Tigers trail, 1-0. Dallas Keuchel is pitching. The umpire will need to look up before Keuchel delivers a pitch.

The umpire has looked up. Keuchel delivers a pitch:

It’s a first-pitch curveball, and Martinez does not swing his bat. You know who doesn’t see too many first-pitch curveballs when they’re batting? Pitchers. Because the pitcher who’s pitching doesn’t really care about the pitcher who’s hitting, so he throws him a first-pitch fastball. Nothing to worry about. J.D. Martinez? Lot to worry about. First-pitch curveball. No swing.

Keuchel, typically a low-ball pitcher, elevates a fastball, up-and-in. No swing.

Another fastball, elevated (but probably more than Keuchel wanted), another no swing.

Swing. Ground ball into the teeth of the shift.

OK. Now let’s try and tie this all together. Lot’s going on with J.D. Martinez this season.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Nationals have an extremely interesting system, highlighted by a handful of consensus big-upside prospects in Lucas Giolito, Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Reynaldo Lopez. Though it doesn’t have the name recognition throughout that some of the top-rated teams have, this is one of the more exciting organizations to cover as a prospector (prospectator?). The Auburn and Hagerstown affiliates may end up being the most exciting groups to watch by mid-season.

In general, the Nationals seem to have found a niche bringing in a ton of underrated hit-tool-heavy guys that are hitting their stride at the same time. Expect a lot of turnover with this list by next year, as the top guys are due for full-time gigs in Washington, and the upside prospects start to separate themselves a bit more. If you could criticize any part of the system, there are a few less high-upside arms in the lower minors than many teams like to stockpile. In terms of total value, however, this group doesn’t have a problem stacking up against the rest of the league.

Following the top four are a sizable number of 50+ prospects who provide the big-league club with sufficient low-cost resources to hold them over until their talented crop of players in the lower levels have time to sort themselves out. Though I find myself lower on a few popular prospects like Pedro Severino, Juan Soto and Rafael Bautista, I am equally more enthusiastic than most on less established players like Telmito Agustin, Kelvin Gutierrez and Taylor Hearn.

Read the rest of this entry »

Trevor Story hit another homer last night, his league-leading eighth home run of the season. That’s eight home runs in just 13 games, totaling 59 plate appearances. He also hit a double, giving him 12 extra base hits on the year; Josh Donaldson is the only other player in the majors in double-digits, and he has 10. At this point, it’s pretty clear that, while still a player with holes in his swing, Trevor Story hits the ball really hard when he does make contact.

Last night’s home run, for instance, was hit at 108 mph. It was the eighth ball he’s hit this year that left the bat with an exit velocity north of 105. For reference, here is the full list of the 13 players that already have eight or more balls hit at 105+.

Most 105+ Exit Velocities

Player	Results	Total Pitches
Carlos Gonzalez	15	215
Domingo Santana	13	230
Mark Trumbo	12	178
Manny Machado	11	175
Carlos Correa	10	189
Gregory Polanco	9	223
Josh Donaldson	9	248
Trevor Story	8	245
Giancarlo Stanton	8	219
J.D. Martinez	8	169
Bryce Harper	8	186
Danny Valencia	8	160
Jonathan Schoop	8	147

SOURCE: BaseballSavant.MLB.com

Read the rest of this entry »

A rebuild is the perfect time to experiment. The rebuilding club has nothing to lose and everything to gain. The rebuilding club can experiment with different players, giving as many a shot in the major leagues as possible to see what sticks, the endgame being to unearth some key pieces of the next winning team. This is one of the most commonly accepted principles of a rebuild — finding out what you’ve got. But just as a club can experiment with players during a rebuild, it can also experiment with ideas. Just as important as finding the pieces of its next winning team, an organization should also be looking to find the identity of its next winning team.

The rebuild of the Philadelphia Phillies is well underway. They cleared salary and replenished their farm system in a major way by trading longtime fan favorites Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Jimmy Rollins and Jonathan Papelbon, as well as dominant reliever Ken Giles. The Hamels and Giles moves in particular appear to have netted the club substantial hauls based on early returns. Baseball America ranked their farm system among the league’s top 10, after having not cracked the top 20 in four years. The only guaranteed money on the books beginning in 2018 and beyond is a $2 million buyout for Matt Harrison. They cleaned house from the front office all the way down to the coaching staff. The youth movement has made its way to Citizens Bank Park. The future is bright in Philadelphia. Surprisingly so, given the state of the organization no more than a year ago.

It’s very possible we’re already seeing some of the key pieces of the next good Phillies team. If all goes according to plan, Maikel Franco will be one of them. Odubel Herrera could one day be a winner in Philadelphia. And then there’s the rotation, a 3:2 mix of unproven youngsters and stopgap veterans who have struck out more batters than any rotation in baseball this season. Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton may not be the future for Philadelphia, but Aaron Nola, Vincent Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff sure look to be.

And so not only do the Phillies seemingly have 60% of their next contending rotation in place just 14 games into their first full-on rebuild season, but they’ve already got their identity, too. Their pitching philosophy, if you will. The Pirates have their own inside sinker. The Mets have their own slider. These Phillies? They have their own curveball.

Nobody’s starters are throwing the curveball like the Phillies starters are throwing the curveball. More than a quarter of all pitches thrown by the Philadelphia rotation have been curveballs. The single-season high by a team in the PITCHf/x era is 24%, by the 2012 Pirates. After that, it’s just 19%, by the 2010 Cardinals. This Phillies team might have the most curveball-heavy rotation since we started tracking such things. Phillies starters have thrown 431 curveballs this season. No other team’s rotation has thrown more than 300.

But it’s not just that the Phillies are throwing a ton of curveballs, it’s how they’re throwing them. The average Phillies curveball breaks seven inches to the glove side, drops eight inches, and spins more than 2,600 revolutions per minute. Only three teams average more drop on their curves than Philadelphia. Only two teams average more spins on their curve than Philadelphia. Spin rate and vertical drop are the two keys to getting whiffs on a curve. The Phillies have those in spades. The Phillies aren’t throwing a ton of curves just because. The Phillies are throwing a ton of curves because they’ve mastered them.

Read the rest of this entry »

Time catches up to us all, but Adrian Beltre seems to have secured a fairly sizable lead, leaving time a little further behind than for most 37-year-olds. Beltre debuted with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the shadow of the Mark McGwire–Sammy Sosa home-run race during the 1998 season. Eighteen seasons later, the only players active during that season who’ve also recorded an appearance in this one are Carlos Beltran, Bartolo Colon, David Ortiz, A.J. Pierzynski, and Alex Rodriguez. Beltre was just 19 years old at that time and, after signing a two-year contract extension with the Texas Rangers worth $36 million, he’s in position to outlast all of them.

No discussion of what Beltre will do is complete without discussing what he has done. Beltre signed with the Dodgers at 15 years old for just $23,000 (improperly, as it turns out) and debuted in majors at age 19. At the time, Beltre was one of just four players (Ken Griffey, Edgar Renteria, and Ivan Rodriguez were the others) in the previous decade to record at least 200 plate appearances at age 19 or under. It would be more than a decade before any player would do it again, as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado both reached that mark in the 2012 season.

Since making his debut, Beltre has always been a good player. His 41.3 WAR figure through his age-30 season is identical to the mark produced by Derek Jeter through the same age. What has differentiated Beltre’s play over the last half-decade is his refusal to slow down and it has made him a surefire Hall of Famer. After Beltre’s contract with the Seattle Mariners ended, he was forced to re-establish his value with a one-year deal with the Red Sox. That one-year deal turned into a five-year deal with the Texas Rangers, including an option for this season that the Rangers happily exercised.

Read the rest of this entry »

Since the 2012 season, the question of the best player in baseball has been pretty boring. Mike Trout busted onto the scene with a +10.3 WAR season as a 20 year old, and he’s since dominated the sport in a way that has rarely been seen in the game’s history. There were good players having great seasons in Trout’s shadow, but no one put up any real serious challenge to the idea that they were a better player than Trout. But now, that might be changing, as Bryce Harper is putting together a realistic run at the title of the best player in baseball.

Obviously, Harper’s 2015 season was outstanding, as he won the NL MVP by wrecking opposing pitchers on a daily basis. But because of how good he was last year, it can be easy to forget that Harper is still just 23 years old, and he appears to be getting even better.

Read the rest of this entry »

If George Springer’s rookie season was like a breath of fresh air, then last year represented a sigh of relief. The breath of fresh air, because Springer was not only great, but great in such a unique way. The sigh of relief because Springer’s uncommon profile made him an outlier in some potentially worrisome areas, and last year, he patched up his most glaring weaknesses. Namely, he made more contact, and while that didn’t boost his production, it didn’t hurt his production either, and it also made him feel like a much more certain thing. George Springer comes with fewer caveats now. His production is easier to explain.

I’ve compared Domingo Santana to Springer before. That comparison comes with the important disclaimer that Santana isn’t nearly as fast as Springer, nor does he appear to be as useful a defender, and so he’s never likely to be as valuable a package as Springer. But at the plate, they sure look similar, and Springer at the plate is one hell of a threat, as is. They’re both massive, freak athletes who swing and miss a ton but have enough power to where pitchers feel compelled to work around the zone, and both have good enough eyes to take their walks. They’re nearly identical in their aggression, swing plane, and penchant for going the other way.

And now, 2016 Santana is furthering the comp by making the same adjustment made by 2015 Springer. When I wrote that comparison piece last month, I included this paragraph near the end:

While being unique is interesting from the writer’s prospective, it also means that essentially nobody else is succeeding in the way Santana is attempting to, and that’s not exactly optimistic. It’s hard to be a big league player making as little contact as Santana does, and it’s hard to see Santana being able to put this all together and keep it up without making some adjustments to increase the contact rate, just like Springer did last year.

And now, for a few relevant statistics, comparing players with at least 50 plate appearances in each of the last two years to themselves:

Largest improvement in contact rate

1. John Jaso, +14%
2. Domingo Santana, +11%
3. Joe Mauer, +10%

Read the rest of this entry »