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New York Yankees Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Yankees system isn’t as deep as it’s been in the past, but there are some high-ceiling talents at the top of the Top 15 list. The organization has some intriguing hard-throwers but the overall pitching depth is thin.

 

#1 Mason Williams (OF)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
20 397 107 22 11 24 47 20 .298 .346 .474 .370

Williams was a steal as a fourth rounder from the 2010 amateur draft and he’s out-performed higher Yankees picks from that draft including Cito Culver (32nd overall) and Rob Segedin (third round). He’s moved somewhat slowly through the system to date but he looks ready to explode in 2012. Williams, 21, shows a solid approach at the plate with the ability to make a lot of contact, which should help him hit for a high average. He’s also doing a better job of driving the ball.

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Longer PED Suspensions: Deterrent or Retribution?

In the wake of the Biogenesis reports linking several more Major League players to a PED supplier, Bud Selig has begun to talk about enacting stiffer penalties for failed drug tests. From last week:

“The time has come to make meaningful adjustments to our penalties,” said Selig, according to CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman.”We need to do everything possible to deter the use of performance enhancing drugs … [the recent Biogenesis investigation has] driven my intensity to increase the toughness of our PED penalties … Apparently the penalties haven’t deterred some players.”

And then, earlier this week, Selig made this statement:

“If people want to continue to do what they shouldn’t do, then the one thing that you have to do is you have to have stricter penalties,” Selig said. “It’s as simple as that.”

If only it really were as simple as that.

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Minnesota Twins Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

Minnesota has turned its minor league system around is short order, thanks to strong drafts, outstanding scouting in the international markets and some trades. The organization now has one of the deepest systems in the game, as well as an enviable collection of power arms and exciting athletes.

 

#1 Byron Buxton (OF)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 189 41 10 5 19 41 11 .248 .344 .448 .370

Buxton, the second overall selection in the 2012 draft, flashed his five-tool potential during his pro debut. An ultra-athletic player, he currently possesses plus speed with gap power but, according to a contact I spoke with, he should add more home runs as he matures as a hitter thanks, in part, to his incredible bat speed.  

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Crowdsourced Contract Project

At FanGraphs we talk a lot about contracts, but we’ve never had contract data on our player pages or in an easily exportable form.

We’ve already got the ball rolling by entering about 300 contracts, but there’s still a lot of work to do. Our staff will of course continue to enter in contract data, but if you want to speed up the project you can help us by entering in missing contract data.

Any contract data you enter will be sent for approval to an editor.  Assuming the contract data is correct and mostly complete with proper attribution, it will shortly appear on the player pages along with attribution to your FanGraphs username.

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Cleveland Indians Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The Indians system doesn’t have a ton of depth but both Francisco Lindor and Trevor Bauer offer high ceilings. The club also has some really intriguing sleepers such as Danny Salazar and Anthony Santander. The organization has done an outstanding job of finding value in the Latin market.

 

#1 Francisco Lindor (SS)


Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
18 567 126 24 6 61 78 28 .257 .352 .355 .328

Lindor is one of the more well-rounded offensive prospects in the game. He has plus makeup, which helps his tools play up. He’s a four-tool player whose only questionable tool is his power, which will likely top out around 15 in a full year.  The switch-hitter also walked almost as much as he struck out in 2012. When I asked a contact to tell me what Lindor does well at the plate, he mentioned the prospect’s consistent middle-of-the-field approach from both sides of the plate. 

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Ricky Romero Sinking and Not Sinking

A preface:

(1) The Blue Jays are of tremendous interest this year, after having spent the offseason adding R.A. Dickey and the Marlins. Many expect that the Jays will win their division for the first time since 1993. At the very least, if they’re not favorites, they’re close to it.

(2) Ricky Romero is of tremendous interest, because what the hell happened?

(3) We’re suckers for anything having to do with PITCHf/x and player-on-player analysis. What’s that? Players making use of PITCHf/x data in an attempt to improve themselves or others? A FanGraphs post is all but obligatory.

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New York Mets Top 15 Prospects (2012-13)

The New York Mets’ top prospect list is a lot stronger now than it was when the off-season began, thanks to the R.A. Dickey trade with Toronto that brought two of the club’s Top 3 prospects into the system. The club lacks impact bats but it has a plethora of high-ceiling arms.

 

#1 Zack Wheeler (P)


Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
22 25 25 149.0 115 4 8.94 3.56 3.26 2.99

Organizations have to make bold moves at times when trying to win championships and the Mets’ top prospect list has benefited from that, both with the R.A. Dickey trade with Toronto, as well as the deal that saw veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran head to the San Francisco Giants, an organization that has won the World Series in two of the past three seasons. That latter trade netted Wheeler, a pitcher with the upside of a No. 1 or 2 starter.

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The 20-80 Scale, Saber Style (Again Yet Different)

After taking a look at how scouting grades for tools might grade out statistically, I’m back to look at how some of our other commonly used metrics measure in regard to standard deviations. On Tuesday my goal was to look at each tool individually, and I focused, as a result, on making sure there were enough innings pitched and at-bats to at least indicate there was something going on. Today, I’ll look at metrics that look more at the whole player, so while I’ll continue to use the 20-80 shorthand, we’ll also talk about where players slot in the grand scheme of things. As you will see, some of the bins will match up with some of our preconceived notions, but it’s always good to confirm some things. Without further ado …

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2013 ZiPS Projections!

2013 ZiPS Projections, courtesy of Dan Szymborski, are now available in the projections pages in the player pages!

Please note that WAR as calculated on the projection pages and the player pages will differ from the original 30 reports. The projection and player pages use our in-house WAR calculations, where the original reports included Dan Szymborski original WAR projections.


Does Outfield Alignment Actually Matter?

The idea for this post came about from reports last week that the Yankees were considering flipping Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson on defense, with Gardner taking over in center and Granderson shifting to left field. Of course, Granderson had his forearm broken by a J.A. Happ fastball yesterday, so now the decision has been made for the Yankees, as Gardner will start the season in center field. However, the Yankees will still have to decide what to do when Granderson returns from the DL in May, and they aren’t the only team looking at pairing a couple of center fielder in their outfield this year.

The Angels are shifting Mike Trout to left field because they’re going to give Peter Bourjos a chance to play regularly. The Indians are moving Michael Brantley to left field because they signed Michael Bourn. The A’s are going to use Chris Young all over the outfield because they have Coco Crisp already. In some cases — Trout and Bourjos, for instance — the defensive excellence of both means that there’s probably no wrong answer, as either could play center field and have it look like the right decision. But, in New York, the question was a little more interesting, as Gardner is generally considered to be a better defensive player, and flipping their positions was a consideration based upon improving the overall defensive quality of the Yankees outfield.

It makes sense, after all, to have your best defenders play where the ball is going to be hit the most often, but how much does it actually matter? What’s the magnitude of the difference between having Gardner in center and Granderson in left versus the alignment the Yankees have run out the last few years?

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