Earlier this month, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde stood in the visiting dugout at Chase Field and cast a furtive glance toward the warning track where his players began to warm. “I haven’t seen a baseball thrown today and it’s already 3:15,” he said. Even here, three time zones away from the comfortable climes of Camden Yards, the duties of a big league manager had pulled him in every direction. So many people had popped into his office – front office members, coaches, reporters, players – he’d barely found time to shed his street clothes and don his uniform.

At the helm of the team with the best record in the American League, Hyde is a clear frontrunner to be named AL Manager of the Year, an award for which he was the runner-up last season. His candidacy, then and now, bears many hallmarks of a winner. As the leader of a long-dormant team now in the postseason hunt, he makes for a good narrative. That the Orioles lead baseball’s toughest division, despite a young and inexperienced roster and a mediocre pitching staff, would seem to attest to Hyde’s managerial skill. If he wins, it will be hard to say he doesn’t deserve it.

It will also be almost impossible to say, definitively and concretely, that he does. Read the rest of this entry »

In the moment, the home run was huge. With the Mariners trailing 5-3 in the bottom of the 10th inning against the Angels on Monday night, needing a win to stay half a game ahead of the Rangers in the race for the third AL Wild Card spot, Julio Rodríguez chased a low sinker from José Marte and swatted it over the center field wall into the No Fly Zone, the personal cheering section of T-Mobile Park where the J-Rod Squad sits. The 402-foot blast was Rodríguez’s 30th of the year, meaning that it not only tied the game, it made the 22-year-old center fielder the third-youngest player to join the 30-homer, 30-steal club.

Counting to the point where the players joined the club by reaching the second milestone, only Mike Trout (21 years, 54 days in 2012) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (21 years, 248 days in 2019) reached 30 homers and 30 stolen bases in the same season at a younger age. Alex Rodriguez, like Julio Rodríguez, reached the mark in his age-22 season — and is the only other Mariner to accomplish the feat, but he was 23 years and three days old when he notched his 30th steal in 1998. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ll level with you at the start of this: I never quite bought into what Luis Arraez was doing. When he won the batting title last year, I was skeptical. When he was traded from Minnesota to Miami before the season, I loved the Twins’ side of the deal. When he was flirting with a .400 batting average at the All-Star break, I relegated him to Honorable Mention status on our top 50 trade value list. He just perpetually flummoxed me, slapping singles while I kept thinking he couldn’t possibly keep it up.

Arraez has been downright putrid of late. He’s been below replacement level since the start of August. He’s batting .262 with a .282 OBP in that span, which is hard to fathom for a guy who is still only striking out 6.7% of the time. This isn’t a victory lap article, though. It won’t last. It can’t last. I don’t believe in this version of Arraez any more than I believed in the .400 hitter from June.

In trying to solve this mystery, I let other people guide me. Honestly, I’m not the person to figure out what Arraez is doing wrong, because I never quite understood what he was doing right. So instead, I read a bunch of articles about the good times. Then I looked to see whether Arraez had stopped doing the things that had so recently made him special. Read the rest of this entry »

If you enjoyed last week’s Buntpalooza, you’re going to love this, because I’m making up new stats again.

Let’s start with Rickey Henderson. You probably know that in 1982, Rickey set a still-unchallenged single-season record of 130 stolen bases. Which is a lot. Of course it’s a lot; this was the highest-volume season by the best basestealer who ever lived. I just referred to him as “Rickey,” because he was so great he can go by his first name on first reference, like “LeBron” or “Tiger” or “Weird Al.”

Nevertheless, I worry that we don’t appreciate how extremely a lot 130 stolen bases is in one season. One way to look at it is in distance; 172 stolen base attempts (Rickey also got caught a league-high 42 times that year), at 90 feet each, constitutes almost three miles of ground covered. The man ran the best part of a 5K in stolen base attempts alone. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Wednesday, in a piece titled “Royce Lewis Has Arrived in Grand Fashion,” Jay Jaffe noted that the Minnesota Twins third baseman had “clubbed his third grand slam in an eight-game span” in the team’s contest against the Cleveland Guardians that Monday. My colleague added that, per the Elias Sports Bureau and MLB.com’s Sarah Langs, Lewis joined Lou Gehrig, Jim Northrup, and Larry Parrish as the only player in MLB history to “bunch three such hits so closely.”

Lewis has done more than hit grannies. Since making his big league debut last season, the first overall pick in the 2017 draft has slashed a healthy .310/.355/.541 with 14 home runs and a 147 wRC+ over 245 plate appearances. Staying on the field had been an issue. As our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen wrote in June, “Lewis’ career has been marred by persistent injury.” But as Longenhagen noted, “He is back and ready to make an immediate impact on Minnesota’s playoff push.”

I was in Cleveland for last week’s Guardians-Twins series, and thus was present for Lewis’ 3-for-4, six-RBI, grand slam performance. Prior to the game, I sat down with the red-hot rookie to talk hitting. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re getting to the point in the season where the majority of the teams in these rankings aren’t going to budge. There was a bit of movement at the top of the rankings where three teams are battling for two spots in the AL Wild Card race.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Braves became the first team to secure their postseason berth this season with a series win over the Pirates on Sunday. The man who delivered the game-winning hit? National League MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr. Atlanta now has a huge opportunity to affect the NL Wild Card race over the remainder of the season; the Braves play the Phillies seven times over the next ten days and have series against the Marlins and Cubs on the docket, too.

All of a sudden, the Dodgers are facing some real questions on their pitching staff. Julio Urías was placed on Administrative Leave last week after he was arrested and charged with felony domestic violence charges; he’s unlikely to pitch again this season. The team also announced that Walker Buehler won’t return from his Tommy John rehab this year, pushing his return to 2024. Clayton Kershaw seems to be feeling the ill effects of his shoulder injury; his last two starts featured a significant dip in fastball velocity, and his next start was pushed back to Friday in the hopes that he can bounce back physically. At least the Dodgers dodged a bullet after Mookie Betts fouled a pitch off his toe on Thursday; there was no major damage, and he was back in the lineup on Sunday.

With both the Mariners and Rangers faltering to begin September, the Blue Jays have taken advantage of their soft schedule to win seven of their nine games this month and vault themselves over those two teams in the AL Wild Card race. Davis Schneider has continued his surprising assault on big league pitching, and Bo Bichette came off the IL last weekend. They’ve got a huge four-game series against the Rangers this week, which should prove to be a test of how competitive they really are.

There’s nothing like a series win against the A’s to wipe away the memory of allowing 39 runs to the Astros. The Rangers were completely outclassed against Houston, another huge wakeup call amidst a protracted slide down the standings. To make matters worse, Adolis García hit the IL with a strained patellar tendon, though he’s expected to be back on the field before the season ends if everything goes well.

I understand: It’s weird that the Orioles, the team with the best record in the AL, sit behind four other teams in their league and in the third tier in these rankings. But no matter how you slice it — base runs, pythagorean record, or this team quality metric — they’re continuing to outperform their underlying stats by significant margins. Yes, they just rattled off a seven-game win streak that was finally broken on Sunday; yes, they’re getting contributions from all over their roster right now; and yes, they’ve barely skipped a beat since losing Félix Bautista a few weeks ago. But on paper, they’re not as strong as some of the other teams in the AL playoff picture, even if they’ll probably end up with the top seed and a first-round bye when the playoffs officially start.

Surprise, Trea Turner hit another home run on Sunday, his ninth over his last ten games. Unfortunately, the Phillies lost that game and the series to the Marlins. They’re still 4.5 games ahead of Miami and in control of the top Wild Card spot in the NL, but their schedule gets tough over the next two weeks; they won’t have an off day until the final week of the season, and they play the Braves seven times over the next ten days.

The Twins stood pat at the trade deadline, banking on the already assembled talent on their roster rather than trying to find marginal upgrades at the cost of future value. Their gamble has largely paid off, as they lead the AL Central by 7.5 games and have easily weathered a last-minute rally by the Guardians. The man leading the charge on offense has been oft-injured former top prospect Royce Lewis. He blasted three grand slams in an eight-game span and has been on fire since returning from an oblique strain in mid-August with a 170 wRC+.

In the midst of battling for an NL Wild Card berth, the Diamondbacks called up their top prospect, shortstop Jordan Lawlar, on Thursday. They’re hoping that infusion of youth can give them the boost they need to secure a playoff spot. While he collected just a single hit over his first three games, Arizona won a critical four-game series against the Cubs over the weekend. Those two teams will battle again this weekend in another three-game series.

In a disappointing turn of events, Yankees top prospect Jasson Domínguez tore his UCL and will require Tommy John surgery. The recovery period for position players is significantly shorter than for pitchers, as Bryce Harper proved this year, but it still cuts short a promising start to his big league career.

The Marlins have won eight of their last 10 games, including series wins against the Dogders and Phillies, to stay hot on the heels of the Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race. Unfortunately, they’ll be making their postseason push without Sandy Alcantara and Jorge Soler, who were both placed on the IL last week. There’s no clear timeline for either, but it’s certainly possible they’ve both played their final innings this season. Those are some pretty significant hurdles Miami will have to overcome to continue playing baseball in October.

Things haven’t gone very well on the field for the Nationals, though probably better than expected since there’s a shot they’ll wind up ahead of the Mets in the NL East standings by the end of the season. It makes things all the more frustrating when off-field events reflect poorly on the organization on top of all the losing. That’s what happened last week, when a retirement ceremony for Stephen Strasburg was walked back by the team with the details apparently still being worked out. It was a bad look for the organization and a poor way to treat the superstar pitcher who almost literally gave his arm to win a World Series back in 2019.

After a sweep by the Blue Jays over the weekend, the Royals entered play on Monday with the worst record in baseball. Somehow, they’ve slipped behind Oakland with just eight wins under their belt since August 5. Thankfully, there are a few positive signs as the season winds down. Cole Ragans had a 26-inning scoreless streak snapped on Sunday, and in a particularly odd manner, too. He’s been dominant for Kansas City since coming over in the Aroldis Chapman trade and looks like a key building block.

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The Baltimore Orioles have the best record in the American League, and youthful talent is a big reason why. Gunnar Henderson is the odds-on favorite to capture Rookie-of-the-Year honors, while Adley Rutschman has already reached star status in just his second MLB season. The dynamic duo are the first-place team’s co-leaders in WAR.

They aren’t the only players making an impact. The well-balanced Mike Elias-constructed club has also received meaningful contributions from the likes of Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays. On the pitching side, a mix of veterans and less-established arms have more than held their own, in some cases outperforming expectations. From the better-known to the lesser-known, a multitude of players have played important roles in the 90-wins-and-counting success.

With that in mind, who has been the most-underrated player on the 2023 Orioles? I asked that question to four people who see the squad on an everyday basis — two broadcasters and a pair of beat writers — prior to yesterday’s game at Fenway Park.

Nathan Ruiz, who covers the team for the Baltimore Sun, chose Danny Coulombe.

“A lot was made of the All-Star combo of Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista, but Coulombe has come in and kind of been that main left-handed reliever all season,” said Ruiz. “He’s been really good with inherited runners, which is something they have generally struggled with. Cionel Pérez was really good for them last year, but they felt they needed another lefty so they acquired him [from the Minnesota Twins] for cash around the cusp of the season and he became a solid piece for them right away. He’s been dependable at the back end of the bullpen.”

Melanie Newman went with Kyle Bradish.

“He’s got an ERA that’s sitting there with Gerrit Cole right now,” the Orioles broadcaster opined. “We all talk about Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista, and our back end — what they’ve been able to do so far — but Kyle has been consistent. For whatever reason, when we’re on the road in a big spot, those are his best moments. That’s what you want out of a guy, and you forget that he’s only in his second year. His breaking pitches are disgusting. I don’t think he gets enough credit.”

Danielle Allentuck opted for Ryan O’Hearn.

“He has kind of been the guy who, whenever they need the big hit — he’s either coming off the bench or already in the lineup — has been providing it,” the Baltimore Banner reporter told me. “He’s been that kind of spark for them. He’s turning his career around here. We’re talking underrated, and I don’t think a lot of people know about him. He’s not the big name. He wasn’t a big superstar, but he’s come here and turned things around for himself, and the team.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ah, Labor Day. The weather is perfect (unless you’re in New York), there’s a well-placed day off of work, and playoff races are in full swing. It’s a great overall time for sports — football is starting up, and the US Open is headed toward a thunderous final. If your team isn’t in the hunt for October, it can be easy to tune out; I wouldn’t blame you for going somewhere else for your sporting needs. But don’t worry: you can still get your fix of baseball, so long as you’re willing to consume it in five bite-sized increments. Shout out, as always, to Zach Lowe, who was making lists of NBA things he likes and doesn’t like before it was cool. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rangers have been sputtering, losing 15 of their last 19 since August 15 to turn a 3.5-game AL West lead into a three-game deficit, with the Astros, who just swept a three-game series from them at Globe Life Field, and Mariners both above them. Yet even as the team’s offense has dried up, Corey Seager has been on a tear. Since returning from a sprained right thumb at the beginning of August, the Rangers shortstop has homered 13 times in 30 games; this past week, he finally accumulated enough plate appearances to take over the AL leads in both batting average and wRC+. If not for Shohei Ohtani, Seager would have a pretty decent case for an MVP award, even with his absences.

Seager only missed nine games due to his thumb sprain, which he suffered on July 21 sliding into second base in a game against the Dodgers. That was his second trip to the injured list this year, as he also missed 31 games from April 12–May 17 due to a left hamstring strain. Yet the interruptions haven’t hindered him at all. Read the rest of this entry »

Bobby Miller was pitching in High-A when I first interviewed him for FanGraphs in June 2021. Drafted 29th overall the previous summer by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of the University of Louisville, the right-hander possessed both a high-octane heater and a lofty ceiling. Since making his MLB debut this past May, he’s met those expectations, going 9–3 with a 3.80 ERA and a 3.67 FIP over 17 starts. The 24-year-old is also coming off of his most impressive outing. Facing the powerhouse Atlanta Braves on September 3, he allowed just three hits and one run in a career-high seven innings.

Miller discussed his continuing evolution as a pitcher and his efforts to find consistency with his slider when the Dodgers visited Fenway Park in late August.

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David Laurila: We talked two years ago when you were pitching for the Great Lakes Loons. What has changed and what has stayed the same since that time?

Bobby Miller: “A lot of stuff is the same. At the end of the day, it’s still the same game. But the competition is obviously a lot higher. The hitters are lot more disciplined and experienced. Most of them have seen the game’s best arms, so when you’re out there, you’ve got to know that they’ve faced guys just as good or better than you are.

“Game-planning comes in a lot more at this level. I feel like game-planning is super important to learn in the minor leagues, studying hitters and all that, and I wish I’d have learned more before I came up here. While I had somewhat of an idea, I still have a lot of room to improve on that. I think that’s the biggest thing for me: how much time I spend looking at the upcoming lineups I’m going to face.”

Laurila: Basically, what hitters’ hot and cold zones are, and what they hit and don’t hit in certain counts.

Miller: “Yeah. What to avoid in certain counts. When they’re aggressive and when they’re not aggressive. How aggressive they are with runners in scoring position. At some point, I could get better at learning the baserunners, too. But at the end of the day, the most important thing is getting the batter out of the box. It’s about getting outs for your team.” Read the rest of this entry »