Archive for Game Preview

After Friday night’s surreal game in San Francisco, the Giants might be ready for a change of scenery. However, the trip to Atlanta won’t be a leisurely visit. The Giants managed to knock Tommy Hanson around well enough in Game Two before things went haywire, but they were handled fairly well in Game One by Derek Lowe, needing an awesome performance from their ace Tim Lincecum to get the victory. Neither of those games have any significant predictive relevance for this one, of course, but seeing another groundball machine inTim Hudson (whose stats beyond ERA are remarkably similar to Lowe’s this season) on the mound won’t be much cause for comfort. Well, maybe a bit — the more groundballs the Giants put into play, the more likely Brooks Conrad is to have to try and field them.

The Giants aren’t bereft of their own pitching talent, sending Jonathan Sanchez out on Sunday against Hudson. On the surface, their numbers are somewhat similar. Each has an ERA about a run better than his xFIP, although neither has a career line that shows the ability to consistently “outpitch” his xFIP significantly. Each has a 2010 WAR just over 2.5 and a tERA under 4. Their actual methods are quite different, however. Hudson is a right-handed groundballer with a below average strikeout rake who doesn’t walk many; Sanchez is a left-handed flyballer with a great strikeout rate who has a problem with walks. CHONE’s August update does not see them as overall equals, projecting Sanchez’s context-neutral ERA (nERA) at 4.42 and Hudson’s at 3.95; do with that what you will.

While the series has evened up and Altanta has homefield advantage for the moment (however you want to quantify that), the Giants still have the superior offense. While some have raised the concern that the Giants are too right-handed on offense given Atlanta’s right-handed top three pitchers, this might be a bit overblown. True, of the Giants good hitters, only Aubrey Huff is left-handed. However, of their switch hitters, Andres Torres has a close-to even platoon split for his career, Pablo Sandoval (one bad year doesn’t make him a bad hitter) hits righties better than lefties, and Buster Posey (whose platoon sample in the majors is too small to say either way) has hit everyone well so far in his brief MLB sojourn. Right-handed hitter Pat Burrell has a smaller-than-average observed platoon split for his career, and curiously enough, a reverse split in both 2009 and 2010, although the sample size should dissuade one from overemphasizing those two seasons. Of greater concern for Giants’ hitters than platoon issues will be how to deal with the Braves’ relievers, as the Atlanta bullpen has been every bit as good and deep as advertised. Even with Takaski Saito and now Billy Wagner out, they have enough arms to go the bullpen early if necessary, and given enough room to work, can set up tough matchups for hitters.

As a flyball pitcher, Sanchez is a good fit for the Giants’ home park, which lowers home run rates. Turner Field isn’t a hitter’s haven, but it isn’t as forgiving to pitchers regarding the long ball. However, that issue isn’t quite as worrisome as it might be, as the left-handed throwing Sanchez will have the platoon advantage against the Braves’ best hitters — Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, and, of course, feared Giantslayer Rick Ankiel (ahem).

As a baseball fan without a vested rooting interest in this match up, here’s hoping Game Three offers as many surprising twists as its predecessor, whomever comes out on top.

Must-win game number two for Tampa Bay will feature Wade Davis as starting pitcher. Monday will be an off-day whether the series continues or not, meaning just about everyone on Tampa Bay’s staff shy of David Price (if he’s saved for a potential game five) and Matt Garza (who started Saturday’s game) would be available in relief work if Davis happens to stumble.

Davis’ likelihood to slip and slide may or may not be more unpredictable than other pitches, but it sure feels like it. From June until August, Davis’ xFIP finished in the 4.8s, yet his peripherals danced across the floor to a foreign pattern. One month, Davis would look like a pitcher with a flair for the three true outcomes. The next he would be a contact aficionado. Based on his six five, 220 pound frame and low-to-mid 90s heater (his adoration for which is no secret) one would think Davis is closer to the pitcher who will strike some out and walk some more, but in a perfect world he falls into his September numbers; where he compiled a 7.49 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.

The only thing with more rate changes than his numbers is his favorability amongst the locals that stems from an improved ERA and win-loss record. In fact, since returning from the disabled list on August 5, Davis went 3-1 with a 3.76 ERA. A good chunk of that improvement can be attributed to only giving up five home runs in 50-plus innings. Consider that at one point, Davis gave up five home runs in an 11 innings span and `18 over his first 94 innings.

Has Davis improved in anything but luck? One would like to think so (and the numbers spell this out to some degree as well) but expect Joe Maddon to have his pen ready at a whim. After all, he pulled James Shields and Matt Garza well before either hit the 100-pitches mark, and neither were in games that could force a decisive game five.

As for the Rays’ lineup, the J-Walkers (John Jaso, Matt Joyce, and Dan Johnson) will be present along with one of yesterday’s stars, Carlos Pena. Tommy Hunter will be the opposition.

In the first two games of the series the Yankees threw lefties on the road. Now they’ll flip that by throwing a righty at home. The Twins will counter by trotting out a different lineup than they did in Games 1 and 2. While righties Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer presented the largest dangers in those games, the lefties will bat higher in the lineup tonight. Phil Hughes will face the lefty gauntlet in Joe Mauer,Jim Thome , and Jason Kubel.

In his first full season as a starter, Phil Hughes had problems at times keeping the ball in the park. His 1.28 HR/9 ranked sixth among qualified AL starters. Most of those came at home and against left-handed pitching. Of the 25 home runs he allowed, 17 came against left-handed pitching (1.68 HR/9). Twenty of them came at home (1.69 HR/9). He also strikes out fewer hitters and walks more when pitching at Yankee Stadium.

If Hughes is going to be successful against those three big lefties, he’ll have to attack them with his secondary stuff. While his fastball rates well in pitch type values (16.7, 0.88 per nine), lefties have hit it out of the park 12 times.

He has also used the cutter to bust lefties inside, but he has paid when leaving it out over the plate.

Only one time has a lefty hit a curveball for a home run, and no lefty hit his changeup for a home run all season. That changeup might play an important role in this game. If Hughes can locate his cutter he can use that, but if he doesn’t he’ll need another pitch. His changeup has come along very slowly because he throws it so infrequently — just 2.7 percent of the time. Looking at the strike zone plot, it’s easy to see why.

Hughes started going to the changeup more often as the season progressed; he threw it 7.1 percent of the time during September and October. He is also throwing the curveball more often, a pitch on which opponents hit just two home runs this season — though it graded out poorly per pitch type values, -5.0 (-1.2 per nine). If Hughes can command these two off-speed pitches, his fastball, which already rates highly, he will be even more effective.

All graphs from Joe Lefkowitz’s PitchFX tool.

Saturday night’s affair marks the first of (potentially) three games where the Rays face elimination in this series. The 2001 Yankees are the only home team to lose the first two games of the series and wind up advancing. History does not bode well for the Rays and nor do simulations or probabilities. Say, for instance, the Rays hold a 60% chance of winning each game. They do not, but say they do. That would result in about a 22% shot of winning the series.

Certain human beings like to say that games are not played on calculators (or spreadsheets) and instead are played on the field. Those human beings are correct, and so here we are, with Matt Garza and Colby Lewis dueling in the Arlington dusk. Words cannot express how tempting the idea of invoking wordplay about gunslingers and the whole Wild West lexicon is – I mean, I just used dueling and dusk – but alas, Lewis slings no heated-metal cylinders and ruins the whole scheme.

Even without the Texas heat, Lewis held the superior strikeout rates to Garza, while also besting him in every run metric featured on FanGraphs. That’s a bad sign for Tampa Bay’s chances, but hey, Lewis throws with this right arm. That means the return of Matt Joyce to the starting lineup. Joyce hit .263/.388/.526 against righties this year, and could slide into the lineup behind Evan Longoria. Carl Crawford, who could be playing in his final game while wearing Rays garb, hit .334/.381/.554 versus righties this year too. Carlos Pena, John Jaso, Dan Johnson seem likely to join the starting lineup as well.

Those numbers do not guarantee success in a single game, but you know, after the first two games, can the offense really play any worse? If the Rays do win, it’ll be interesting to see if the Rays stick with Wade Davis in game four or slide to David Price, making James Shields the default starter for a potential game five with the entire staff available in relief. That’s getting ahead of the count though – something the Rays’ offense hasn’t done enough this series.

Not to take anything away from Tim Lincecum and his game score of 96 last night, but the Giants look good tonight, too, with Matt Cain going out there. Cain increased his K/9 and decreased his BB/9 since last year while improving his FIP from 3.89 to 3.65. Interestingly enough, Cain’s strand rate reduced from 81.6% to 75.3%, which most will point toward regression to the mean. His BABIP is still low at .260, while his FIP has outperformed his xFIP every year since joining the big leagues. Much of this is due to pitching at a pitcher’s ballpark all of his career, keeping Giants’ pitchers at low HR/FB ratios (a very good 7.4% for Cain in 2010). Cain can keep the ball in the ballpark at home, especially for Braves hitters who don’t exhibit particularly great power.

If last night’s 1-0 result was any indication, there will probably be very few runs scored in this game as well. Except for a few mistimed sinkers to right-handed hitters Buster Posey and Cody Ross, Derek Lowe was particularly effective in preventing hard hits (9 groundouts, 1 flyout). Still, the Giants’ strength at drawing walks was evident last night, and if the collective lineup remains patient against Tommy Hanson, they will be a few hanging curveballs or over-the-plate fastballs away from a couple of runs. Hanson has drawn swings from outside the strike zone the same as the MLB average (29.3%), so he isn’t particularly deceptive on out-of-the-zone pitches. Rather, Hanson gets most of his whiffs inside the strike zone, so the key for the Giants is to wait for a good pitch to hit and not let Hanson get ahead in the count (then again, isn’t it always?).

As noted by the fielding of Brooks Conrad and Rick Ankiel last night, the Braves defense may be the worst in the National League. Hanson’s GB% is almost identical with his FB%, and I’m not sure which batted-ball type is to the Braves’ advantage based on the lack of quality fielding. Assuming that Hanson doesn’t adjust his pitch selection and sequencing based on last night’s fielding, look for ground balls off Hanson’s changeups and curveballs put in play.

In my preview for yesterday’s game, I noted the strength and depth of the Giants’ bullpen this season. Lincecum’s complete game shutout provides another advantage for the Giants against the Braves going forward in addition to being two wins closer to the NLCS. The Braves’ bullpen is also one of the best in the Majors right alongside the Giants’. But with Jonny Venters throwing 1.2 IP last night (albeit in an efficient 13 pitches) with appearances from Peter Moylan, Michael Dunn, and Craig Kimbrel, the Braves would like to get major innings from Hanson. An off day between Games Two and Three will suppress this advantage, but Giants will be able to freely use any of their bullpen arms tonight should Cain need to exit early.

Carson Cistulli challenged his fellow writers today by predicting the entire box score of the Phillies-Reds matchup tonight. As one of the newer writers and one who is slow to adopt new policies, I will only venture a guess at the final score, which will be 3-0 Giants for a 2-0 lead in the series.

After being shut down by Tim Lincecum in game one, the Braves get to hit the reset button in game two.

The Hitting
Even though Lincecum pitched well last night, a good chunk of his success stemmed from the Braves’ offensive ineptitude. Timmy was leaving fastballs up in the zone, and the Braves didn’t end up doing much with them. Making matters worse, most of Lincecum’s strikeouts were on balls out of the zone, so the Braves’ hitters need to do a much better job of controlling the dish and keep the flailing to a minimum.

Atlanta should have an easier go of things tonight, as Matt Cain doesn’t have nearly the same swing-and-miss stuff as Lincecum. The Braves are going to need to try to take advantage of Cain’s fly ball tendencies, and try to stroke shots into the gaps as much as possible.

The Starter
After being nailed in the eye during batting practice yesterday, Tommy Hanson is good to go against the Braves this evening. Hanson put up very similar numbers to Matt Cain this year, so I’m expecting a fair fight on the mound.

Hanson was a highly-touted prospect just a year ago, but hasn’t done anything spectacular in the bigs. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been worth 4.3 WAR this year, but his numbers are far from superstar status.

One of Hanson’s biggest problems this year has been finding a consistent release point, and a simple glance at a pitch f/x chart will show how erratic he has been. If there is any good news to be taken from his release point, it should be noted that he is not necessarily tipping his pitches, as he’s had trouble with all of his offerings.

As far as his actual pitches go, Hanson relies on a hard four-seam fastball, which should be clocking in around 93 mph tonight. He also has a slider with good movement that he can throw for strikes, along with a slower, looping curveball. None of his pitches get a whole lot of whiffs, so the Giants may be able to keep the strikeouts to a minimum this evening.

The Defense
According to UZR, the Braves defense has been one of the worst in the league, coming in at 34 runs below average. Hanson gives up fly balls and grounders at the same rate, but he should try to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible tonight, thanks to an outfield defense that is often, shall we say, lacking? If the Braves play Rick Ankiel over Nate McLouth tonight, the defense doesn’t look so bad, otherwise it could be a death sentence if the Giants can pound balls towards center.

Prediction
Accuscore has the Braves losing by a full run in their simulations, and I tend to agree. I see Cain shutting down Atlanta, with the Giants taking a two game lead thanks to a 3-2 victory.

As the reader will already know, my colleagues here at FanGraphs have gone to great lengths to provide learned previews for each of the postseason games thus far. Certainly, the writing and the analysis, it’s quite good — nor would I dare change it.

Having said that, though, I will level criticism on one ground — namely, for their (i.e. my colleagues’) inability to predict the future, or even to offer a prediction of same.

For example, consider Dave Cameron’s preview of tonight’s Cincinnati-Philadelphia game. Looking at the contest from the Reds’ point of view, Cameron offers some notes on Roy Oswalt‘s excellence, Bronson Arroyo’s relative inferiority, and how Dusty Baker might be best suited to leverage his bullpen against the Phillies.

That’s fine — all of it — but one thing is conspicuous by its absence from Cameron’s preview: the exact score of the game and the specific events leading to said score.

With all due respect to Cameron, I’m forced to ask: Is this still 2009, or something? If FanGraphs is going to lead the way in baseballing analysis, Dave, we’re gonna have to go the extra mile.

It’s with those shortcomings in mind that I offer to the reader this “Preemptive Review” of Game Two of the Cincy-Philly Divisional Series — in which the author (I, Carson One-Million-Dollars Cistulli) provide a review of a game that has as yet to occur.

You can find an image of the game’s exact box score below and a can see both the box score and play-by-play by clicking here. In the meantime, however, here are some things that will definitely, no-questions-asked occur tonight:

1. Roy Oswalt will strike out 15 batters, en route to a 5-2 victory.
It’s a true fact!

2. Chase Utley will hit two homers, one of the inside-the-park variety.
It’s been pre-ordained!

3. Aaron Harang will pitch 0.1 IP in relief.
Doubt it at your own risk!

4. Laynce Nix will twice be “frozen” on a strike three.
It’s getting cold in here!

5. With two outs in the sixth inning, Drew Stubbs will limit Placido Polanco to a single on a line drive “smoked” to right-center field
Why even question it?!?

Read the rest of this entry »

See the NLDS Game One preview for Atlanta.

The naysayers who insist that a 5-11, 170 lb pitcher won’t last in the MLB have been waiting for Tim Lincecum to regress since 2008. But after winning back-to-back NL Cy Young Awards with back-to-back sub-3.00 FIP seasons, it’s hard for even a young superstar to keep up that level of production without the rest of baseball adjusting. Still, to say that Tim Lincecum fell back to earth this season is like saying that Princeton dropped behind Harvard in the 2011 U.S. News rankings. Of the pitchers in the playoffs, only Roy Halladay and Francisco Liriano (along with Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson) have a better xFIP than Lincecum (3.15). Considering that Lincecum actually has a higher ERA than his teammates Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, the Giants look very good running their big three starters out there against the Braves.

Lincecum had an up-and-down season down the stretch, leaving a winless August behind when batters hit .311/.389/.519 off of him. However, Lincecum turned things around in time for tonight’s game with 5 wins and a 1.94 ERA in September. It may seem that he has been a bit more hittable this season, but he’s still baffling hitters with a nasty changeup on a start-by-start basis. Take a look at his changeups this season, showing where his swinging strikes and balls put in play are located:

He uses his changeup 16.5% of the time against RHH and 25.8% of the time against LHH. Both whiff at a high rate, with 25.4% of RHH and 27.7% of LHH whiffing on his changeup this season. What’s interesting to note and adds clarity to the term ‘filthy stuff,’ Lincecum’s changeup induces swinging strikes both in the strikezone and low and out of the zone. Hitters whiff both by missing in the zone and by chasing balls.

While the Giants look to be in good hands with Lincecum facing a Braves’ lineup that doesn’t have a single standout power hitter, the Giants’ lineup, also underwhelming power-wise, looks to remain patient and draw walks against Derek Lowe. In two starts against Lowe this season, the Giants drew 8 walks in 11.1 innings, good for an OBP of .362 against him. But the orange and blackmen (black and orangemen?) slugged .308 in those two starts and would need to do major overhaul if they want to be successful against Lowe tonight. For the season, the Giants’ offense was average or below average in hitting pre All-Star (.261/.326/.406), but slumped further post All-Star (.253/.315/.411). When it comes to monthly splits, San Francisco hopes to continue one trend and improve another. Their home run rate increased from 2.8% to 4.1% between August and September/October, but their team OBP decreased from .326 to .295.

Viewers will be intrigued by both teams’ budding rookie stars, Buster Posey of the Giants and Jason Heyward of the Braves. While Heyward hit much better in the second half of the season, Posey has regressed somewhat after hitting a ridiculous .417/.466/.699 in July. Still, of any of the Giants’ batters, look to the rookie to unleash the bat and make the big play.

San Francisco’s bullpen — now this is where the team really shines — is led by closer Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, and Santiago Casilla. The bullpen had a 2.99 ERA for the season (second in the MLB) while preventing 76% of inherited runners from scoring. Brian Wilson achieved a ridiculous 2.19 FIP, and the big three have only allowed 11 HRs in a combined 192 IP. Lincecum can go deep into the game averaging over 6 innings per start, but the Braves may not find any relief once the Giants get to their deep bullpen.

As it stands, Lincecum is heavily favored to win this game, but if Lowe continues to stifle the Giants’ power hitting, their pitching will have to be near perfect in order to win. But more often than not, great regular season pitching becomes brilliant playoff pitching. And Lincecum’s changeup and the Giants’ bullpen depth may win this one all by themselves.

A popular theory going into this series was that the Twins needed to win game one if they wanted to have a shot at winning this thing. I disagreed. While having a one game lead is a nice luxury, it’s not a death sentence. With all of the concerns about the Yankees’ number two and three starters, Minnesota has a chance to jump ahead in the series, so game two will be the most important spot for the Twinkies.

The Starter
Carl Pavano gets the call in game two, and he’ll have his work cut out for him. While Pavano’s never been one to fan many batters, he had an especially hard time during the month of September, posting a K/9 of 2.81. Yet, his whiff rate was roughly the same as it had been all year, and he still managed to have a K/BB of 2.00.

Pavano’s control puts him at a huge advantage against the Yankee’s lineup. New York has been the second best team in baseball when it comes to drawing walks, but their patient approach won’t do them much good against Pavano, one of the best in baseball when it comes to throwing strikes.

As far as his arsenal goes, nothing Pavano throws moves all that much or gets to the plate in a hurry. His changeup is easily his best offering, and he uses it as his strikeout pitch. I’d expect to see a lot of sinkers and changeups tonight, as Pavano will look to keep the ball away from the Yankee’s hitters.

The Defense
One of the things that Pavano has done well this year is get a ton of ground balls, and that plays right into the Twins’ strength. According to UZR, The Twins’ outfield defense was worth almost 12 runs below average this year, but their infield defense is another story. Orlando Hudson, Danny Valencia and J.J. Hardy are all well above average defenders, so while Michael Cuddyer isn’t very good at first base, the Twins will be able to gobble up a majority of the grounders that Pavano can deliver.

The Lineup
As Jack mentioned last night, the Twins’ lefties really struggled against Sabathia, and they won’t get much of a reprieve tonight as the Yankees are sending Andy Pettitte to the hill. While Pettitte is certainly no Sabathia, he may have a fairly easy time keeping Jim Thome and Jason Kubel off balance at the plate. If the Twins can take pitches and force Pettitte to work hard early on, they could open up a big inning and chase him from the game sooner, rather than later.

Sager’s Suit
What will Craig Sager dig out of a dumpster tonight? Probably something subtle. You know, something like a pink polka dot jacket with a yellow shirt.

Curtis Granderson currently serves as the poster boy for why match-up numbers mean little during individual at-bats. Everything about his sixth-inning at-bat last night against Francisco Liriano screamed failure. He was just 4-for-25 lifetime against Liriano heading into the game, and a ground out and a strikeout made that 4-for-27. He also hits lefties poorly. Yet he found a pitch to hit and drove in the go-ahead run. It goes against all the numbers put forth in the ALDS Game 1 preview.

For today’s preview let’s look at different numbers. Rather than look at each lineup’s overall performance against pitchers of the same handedness as they will face, let’s look at similar pitchers based on batted-ball profiles. This season Andy Pettitte allowed 18.4 percent line drives, 43.9 percent ground balls, and 37.6 percent fly balls. Based on that, here are a few comparables:

Brett Cecil: 17.6%, 44.2%, 38.2%
Mark Buehrle: 15.9%, 45.7%, 38.4%
John Danks: 15.7%, 45.4%, 38.9%

There were a couple of others that were close, but we’ll go with these three since they’re all lefties who don’t throw particularly hard. Here is how the current Twins lineup fares against these guys.

It would appear, then, that Minnesota does have a decided advantage when facing left-handed pitchers similar in batted-ball profile to Pettitte. It isn’t the biggest sample, but it’s a bit more comprehensive than just going with their results against Pettitte.

This lineup would appear to hurt the Twins. Gardenhire wants to break up the lefties as to avoid a late-inning Boone Logan encounter, but his best hitters are broken up by ones who fare poorly against hitters like Pettitte. I wonder if he’d consider moving up Michael Cuddyer, considering his excellent numbers against lefties, and softer-tossing lefties in particular.

Carl Pavano has turned into a groundball machine this year, keeping 50 percent of balls in play out of the air. Sticking with right-handed pitchers with a similar batted-ball profile (17.8% LD, 51.2% GB, 30.9% FB), here are his best comparables:

Clay Buchholz: 17.7%, 50.8%, 31.5%
Gavin Floyd: 18%, 49.9%, 32.1%
Rick Porcello: 17.6%, 50.3%, 31.2%

And here is how the Yankees lineup fared against them:

We have a much smaller sample on the Yankees, but it’s clear that they don’t hit as well against hitters of Pavano’s ilk. Maybe that’s because they don’t see them often — Pavano, Floyd, and Porcello are in the AL Central, Porcello and Buchholz haven’t been around for long, and Pavano was on the team’s roster for four years and pitched in the NL before that. Mark Teixeira looks like he can do some damage, but the only other hitter with a SLG above .400 is Lance Berkman, who did it in a mere 15 PA.

Last night the match-up numbers seemed to favor the Twins. They had plenty of hitters in the lineup who fared well against lefties and at home, while the Yankees seemed to perform a bit worse against lefties and on the road. This time around, though, we’re using different numbers, the Twins have a decided advantage. It doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll hit Pettitte, but it certainly bodes well. That’s about the best we can do with pre-game analysis.