Archive for Game Preview

This preview contains a hard-hitting poll. Just, FYI.

Philadelphia at San Francisco | Game Four, NLCS | 7:57pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Phillies: Joe Blanton
175.2 IP, 6.87 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, .331 BABIP, 41.9% GB, 12.2% HR/FB, 4.06 xFIP, 1.9 WAR

Giants: Madison Bumgarner
111.0 IP, 6.97 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, .322 BABIP, 45.1% GB, 8.1% HR/FB, 4.03 xFIP, 2.0 WAR

Notes
While I typically attempt, at all costs, to avoid learning, it occurs to me that, looking at Blanton’s and Bumgarner’s season lines in relief, one is absolutely forced to comprehend the baleful effects of the Fly Ball on a pitcher’s fortunes. For, while Blanton struck out and walked batters at a rate almost identical to Bumgarner — and conceded fly balls on 38.7% of balls in play, versus Bumgarner’s rate of 38.0% — he ended the season with an ERA exactly 1.82 points higher than Bumgarner (4.82 versus 3.00).

Indeed, the only real difference between these pitchers — besides their handedness and respective waistlines — is what happened to the balls once they got in the air. For Bumgarner, about eight percent of them became home runs; Blanton conceded that many, plus half again.

To what do we owe this difference? Well, we can’t ignore the pitchers’ respective ballparks. Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank certainly has a reputation for allowing dongers, while the Giants’ home park is, anecdotally speaking, known as either average or slightly below in this regard. Still, per Dan Turkenkopf’s four-year weighted HR/FB park factors, Citizens Bank Park actually supresses homers, producing a park factor of 94. San Francisco’s AT&T Park, on the other hand, has a 95*.

*Note: numbers are for 2006-09.

Another thing to consider is the type of balls that are being hit in the air. For, while grounders are relatively easy to classify, the difference between a fly ball and line drive is slightly more mysterious. (As I’ve almost definitely mentioned in these pages, we members of Team FanGraphs who were lucky enough to attend spring training had endless hours of fun attempting to identify batted-ball types).

In fact, we do see that Bumgarner induced more grounders per batted-ball than Blanton. It follows, of course, that Blanton allowed more balls in the air. How many? Well, in his 175.2 IP, Blanton conceded 221 fly balls and 111 line drives, for a total of 332 balls in air (BIA), or approximately 17 for every nine innings. Bumgarner, on the other hand, allowed 135 flies and 60 line drives, for a total of 195 BIA, or 15.8 every nine innings.

Does that make things any different? Sort of, but not by much. Blanton, with his 27 homers-allowed, still allowed a home run on 8.1% of his BIA; for Bumgarner that number was only 5.6%.

Ultimately, we’re forced to concede that Blanton’s relative susceptibility to the home run is inexplicable. It could be the home park; it could be the types of batted-balls he’s allowing; it could be random variation. It’s very likely, all three things, plus some other factors beyond these that we (read: I, Carson Cistulli) are failing to consider.

The notable thing, so far as this game is concerned, is how similar these pitchers have performed and how different have been their results. Do we regard Bumgarner as “better” because he’s managed to suppress about five home runs that Blanton would’ve allowed in the same numbers of innings? Do we regard Blanton as “worse” because those same fly balls have left the park on his watch? Were you a manager, who would you rather have pitch for you tonight? From what we know, the answer should be “either,” but I don’t know if that’s the case.

How’s about we find out, huh? Below, reader, you’ll find a poll whose question essentially amounts to a Zen koan. Bring it.

For the first time since 2007 the Yankees face an elimination game in the postseason. They were able to stay alive one more day in that series, no thanks to a gimpy Roger Clemens, but ended up losing the next game. This year the task is a bit greater. In 2007 they were down two games to none in the ALDS, with two home games before a potential return trip to Cleveland. This year they have one more game at home before potentially returning to Texas. Even if they do win the next two, they have a return date with Cliff Lee waiting for them on Saturday.

Today, though, they’ll send their ace to the mound. CC Sabathia has been a bit shaky in his first two 2010 postseason starts, though he has a ready-made excuse. His start on October 15th was his second in 17 days, which constitutes far more rest than he gets during the regular season; the Yankees even lined him up on fairly regular rest after the All-Star Break. But today, October 20th, he’s on his normal four days’ rest. Everything is in order and his team’s season is on the line. There are no excuses.

C.J. Wilson pitched well through seven innings last time, allowing just four hits and walking two. But instead of turning to his setup crew, Ron Washington sent out Wilson, who had thrown under 100 pitches, for the eighth. He and the next three relievers failed to record an out. By the time Derek Holland finally got the first one the Yankees had already taken the lead. Wilson did avoid walking too many hitters, which helped him hold down the Yankees through seven. This time perhaps his bullpen will better support him.

We don’t have stats that measure momentum; we don’t have stats that capture a team’s confidence. We don’t, in short, have stats that offer any insight into any single game. We can use our numbers to set expectations, and in that way we should expect a quality game this afternoon. But in the postseason, with emotions at a season high, it’s tough to expect anything. The Yankees’ offense could rebound. It could bomb. Wilson could go back to walking too many guys and allow five runs. He could repeat his Game 1 performance. It’s frustrating from an analytical standpoint, but it’s true.

The real preview for Game 5: watch it and enjoy it. No amount of analysis can prepare you for what you’re going to see.

Base Running

The Rangers exhibit and take pride in being aggressive when running the bases. They have had good results so far in the post season. Tonight though, they may have to calm it down a bit since Andy Pettitte is on the mound. Andy has a great pick off move and does a great job of keeping runners near first base. With runs possibly being at a premium tonight, none of the Ranger base runners can pull a “Kinsler” and get picked off of first base.

The Rangers don’t have to shut down their running game. They can be aggressive once the ball is in play or even look at stealing third base against Jorge Posada. They just can’t afford to give away any outs at first base tonight.

Cliff Lee May

Cliff Lee has been throwing lights out so far this post season. He will not maintain this complete dominance throughout the entire post season (see Roy Halladay). He may come down to earth, regress a little and allow some crazy number of runs like three or four. The Rangers should be looking to add runs whenever they can. They can’t expect him to be as lights out as he was against Tampa, especially against the Yankees lineup.

Robinson Cano ….

… is a very good hitter. I followed the Royals during the regular season, which means I only get a heavy dose of the AL Central players. I am impressed with Cano.

Rangers Bullpen

So far this LCS, the Rangers have used Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Darren O’Day, Alexi Ogando, Darren Oliver and Clay Rapada in relief. During the regular season, these six pitchers average 0.31 BB/IP and 0.97 K/IP. During the LCS, the six have maintained a similar strikeout rate of 0.94 K/IP, but their walk rate has almost quadrupled to 1.13 BB/IP. Though this is a small sample size, the bullpen can’t keep giving up over one walk per inning and expect to hold the Yankees scoreless. As seen in game one, the Yankees are too good to give them one or more free base runners in an inning.

These game notes are offered with supreme humility.

San Francisco at Philadelphia | 8:19pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Giants: Jonathan Sanchez
193.1 IP, 9.54 K/9, 4.47 BB/9, .262 BABIP, 41.5% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 4.11 xFIP, 2.6 WAR

Phillies: Roy Oswalt
211.2 IP, 8.21 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, .261 BABIP, 45.7% GB, 9.1% HR/FB, 3.45 xFIP, 4.7 WAR

The Phils Against Sanchez
According to Matt Becker’s game preview, Giant coach Bruce Bochy has shuffled his starting rotation, purposely pushing up Jonathan Sanchez to tonight’s Game Two in Philadelphia.

Becker writes: “One of the reasons Bochy decided for the change is because Sanchez was stellar in his two regular-season starts against the Phillies this year.”

So, some notes on that statement:

1. Obviously, the reference to “two regular-season starts” sets off the Small Sample Size Alarm in the baseballing nerd’s heart. It’s very probable that Sanchez’s season (and career) numbers — and the Phillies’ team platoon split — can tell us more about tonight’s match-up than two isolated starts this season.

2. As for Philadelphia’s lefty-righty platoon split, here’s what we get: per Baseball Reference, they recorded a 111 OPS+ versus lefties (relative to other teams versus lefties) as opposed to just a 102 OPS+ versus righties. Broadly speaking, the Phillies are probably better versus lefties than righties.

3. Even though Sanchez conceded only 2 ER in those 2 GS versus Philadelphia this season (the first at San Francisco on April 26, the second at Philadelphia on August 19), he didn’t actually pitch all that well. In 13 IP, his K:BB was 13:7, and of the 31 BIP, only 10 of them were grounders. If we figure Sanchez’s xFIP over those two starts, we get something like 4.60 or thereabouts.

The Giants, Oswalt, and Homers
Among National League teams, the Giants had the most homers in September (and October): 39 in 1048 PAs. They also had the NL’s highest HR/FB rate at 12.6%. Buster Posey had eight of the homers; Juan Uribe, seven; Pat Burrell, six; Freddy Sanchez, four; and Aubrey Huff, four. All are likely to start tonight.

Curiously, after coming to Philadelphia, Roy Oswalt saw his groundball rate increase to a level unseen since his 2008 season. After getting grounders on only 43.0% of balls in play with Houston this season — and 43.3% last year — Oswalt saw that number jump to 50.2% in his 12 starts with the Phillies.

There are obvious, and predictable, caveats here: 12 starts isn’t very many, and ground balls are prone to bias. BUT, it’s also possible that what we see here is Oswalt attempting to adjust to his new, more homer-friendly home park.

If I Had My Druthers
• Andres Torres and Chase Utley would spiral into a Handsome Vortex.
• Kool Keith would write an album of the same name.
• Handsome Vortex, that is.

It couldn’t have turned out any better than this. Whether or not you want to label 2010 as the “Year of the Pitcher,” a Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay matchup is a pitcher’s pitcher matchup of all pitcher matchups. It still gives me shivers to think that just over a week ago, Halladay threw the second no-hitter in postseason history and not to mention in his first playoff start. According to Game Score, Lincecum topped that performance (96 vs. 94) with a franchise playoff-record 14 strikeouts. The National League Championship Series figures to be a wild ride, but we’ll first have to get through two of the best pitchers in the early 21st century.

Because of the much-anticipated matchup, Lincecum will need to be almost perfect if he wants to beat Halladay, making as few mistakes as possible against the Phillies. Although the Phillies’ offense has not exhibited as much firepower as in recent seasons in which they made the NLCS, their slugging is decent enough to keep any pitcher humble. The Giants’ lineup, on the other hand, will have to take advantage of the few mistakes that Halladay will make. Every pitcher will throw at least a few pitches that they wish they could take back, even if the batter doesn’t take advantage of them. As much as we’d like to think that Halladay is a baseball demigod (which, I have confirmed with the baseball gods, he is), he will certainly throw at least a few pitches that can be hit, whether it’s a no-movement fastball down the middle, a hanging curveball, or a misplaced cutter.

The key for the Giants’ offense is to attempt as much as possible to go deep in the count. Halladay found himself ahead of the count on 32.2% of pitches during the regular season compared to behind in the count 22.0% of the time. An additional strategy is to be aggressive against the pitches that Halladay looks weaker with early in the game. Halladay throws four effective pitches: a mid-90s sinking two-seam fastball, a high-70s curveball, a low-90s cutter, and a mid-80s changeup.

Here’s a look at which pitches each Giants’ starting batter was successful against in 2010 along with their pitch type runs above average per 100 pitches:

Andres Torres: Fastball (2.12)
Freddy Sanchez: Fastball (0.75)
Aubrey Huff: Curveball (2.64), Fastball (1.50)
Buster Posey: Curveball (3.06), Changeup (2.76)
Pat Burrell: Changeup (2.48)
Juan Uribe: Changeup (2.14)
Cody Ross: Fastball (2.16), Cutter (1.55)
Pablo Sandoval: Fastball (0.24)

And here’s a look at the pitch types the Giants’ lineup was least successful against:

Andres Torres: Changeup (-1.25)
Freddy Sanchez: Changeup (-0.79)
Aubrey Huff: Changeup (0.16)
Buster Posey: Cutter (0.08)
Pat Burrell: Cutter (-1.07), Curveball (-0.62)
Juan Uribe: Cutter (-0.89), Fastball (-0.51)
Cody Ross: Curveball (-6.90), Changeup (-3.79)
Pablo Sandoval: Curveball (-3.28), Cutter (-2.07)

Because pitch type values for batters vary greatly from year to year, coupled with the fact that Halladay throws a fastball with sinking motion, take these numbers with a grain of salt. But what is clear in the second list is that Halladay’s out pitch (the cutter) and his newest pitch (the changeup) have also been weaknesses for most of the Giants’ lineup during the 2010 regular season. And let’s not forget Halladay has a killer curve and a sinking fastball that breaks toward RHH.

As for Lincecum, we know about his most deadly pitch, a mid-80s changeup; an amazing 25.4% of RHH and 27.7% of LHH whiff on his changeups (league average of swinging strikes on all pitches is 8.5%). For the Phillies’ offense, it looks like Raul Ibanez (wCH/C of 2.67) and Jayson Werth (2.40) have been successful against changeups while Shane Victorino (-2.35) and Ryan Howard (-1.85) have not.

We can break down Halladay, Lincecum, and each NLCS team’s lineup all we want, but anything can happen in a pitcher’s duel. Come Saturday, feel free to sit back, relax, scrap this analysis, and grab the popcorn for what might be the most anticipated pitcher’s duel in the history of the League Championship Series.

Here are a few notes I have on today’s game and the entire series.

Weather

The Rangers need to take notice that the weather is cooling down and batted balls will not travel as far when hit. As Robert Adair notes in the Physics of Baseball, a 400 foot fly ball hit to center field will travel four feet less for every ten degrees in temperature drop. The temperature for today’s game is projected to be about 10 degrees cooler than many of the late season night games. Acknowledging this change is especially important when the Rangers are at home. All players should be running as if the ball is in the park until they know for sure that they hit a home run.

Umpires

The umpires have been announced for the series and they probably will work home plate in the following order: Gerry Davis, Tony Randazzo, Jim Reynolds, Angel Hernandez, Fieldin Culbreth, and Brian Gorman. Game one’s home plate umpire, Gerry Davis, has one of the smallest strike zones in the league. Here is a comparison of Davis’s, Tony Randazzo’s (umpire in the crew closest to a standard zone) and Brian Gorman’s (most pitcher friendly umpire of the crew) strike zones for right and left handed hitters.

The scale given is the ratio of called strikes to the total number of called strikes and balls. The box is the rule book strike zone with the inner circle for reference only.

Right Hand Hitters

Gerry Davis

Tony Ranazzo

Brian Gorman

Read the rest of this entry »

Well it is Game 5 for the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays. The game is a near mirror match up of Game 1 in the series with lefties Cliff Lee and David Price pitching . I have absolutely nothing to add that hasn’t been said over the last week, except grab your favorite refreshing beverage, sit down and enjoy the game.

This game will be mentioned as the game that let the Rangers win their first post-season series and propelled them into the ALCS versus the Yankees -or- the game that sent them home again disappointed. Games like this is why we follow baseball. Enjoy the game and a complete over-the-hill analysis will be available after the game no matter which team wins.

This is the fifth meeting within seven days for these two teams. They know each other pretty well by now, meaning few secrets remain. Perhaps the only secret is which player Joe Maddon will start at designated hitter. The two options are Dan Johnson and Willy Aybar.

The switch-hitting Aybar would be the intuitive choice with lefty-tossing Cliff Lee on the mound. Lee doesn’t have much of a platoon split himself, though, and lefties have actually fared better against him this season than righties. Besides, Aybar had a miserable season all around and posted a .304 wOBA versus lefties. The previous two seasons with the Rays included wOBA of .347 and .381 against abnormal humans, so you can see how this is a new experience for Aybar, who displayed less power and less motivation for free passes.

Johnson bats lefty but has a career .330 wOBA against same-handed pitchers in nearly 400 plate appearances. His skill set is an interesting one given Lee’s dominance in the strike zone. Johnson nary swings at pitches outside of the strike zone and only swings at pitches in the zone a little more often. He’s a take hitter which seemingly makes him a poor matchup against Lee – after all, two takes and it could be 0-2 already.

History suggests Maddon will roll with Aybar, as he did in two of the three regular season affairs, but it is worth noting that the Rays left Aybar off the postseason roster entirely in favor of Rocco Baldelli. That’s relevant because if one didn’t know better, Baldelli’s entire purpose on the roster was to play in game one before ducking out due to fatigue. Whoever Maddon decides to play, it’s not expected to matter much, but who knows what will happen in one last game.

The game of musical DH chairs will end tomorrow night and so will one of these teams’ seasons.

Although Rick Ankiel‘s extra-inning homer and Troy Glaus’s (!) defensive wizardry in Game Two already cemented this series as the most “interesting” of the 2010 playoffs’ divisional round, Game Three, a.k.a. the ‘Brooks Conrad Game’ managed to take things to a new level of surreality. Up two games to one, San Francisco is back in control, but given how this series has played out so far, the Giants shouldn’t get too comfortable.

While there were rumors that the Giants’ Game Four starter would be Tim Lincecum on three days rest, the team has decided to go with rookie Madison Bumgarner. It makes sense: the Giants aren’t facing elimination, and given Lincecum’s value to the franchise, if either Lincecum or the Giants’ staff isn’t comfortable with him pitching on short rest for whatever reason that should settle it.

Bumgarner himself isn’t exactly a slouch. Despite concerns about his drop in velocity during 2009, he seemed get it back in 2010, and he fared well in his 18 major-league starts for the Giants this season (3.00 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 3.59 tERA, 2.0 WAR in 111 innings). Bumgarner’s major league strikeout rate is only average-ish so far, but combined with a low walk rate, he’s been an above-average starter for San Francisco. Bumgarner isn’t a ground ball machine, but he isn’t a flyball pitcher, either, so home runs shouldn’t be a particular problem for him. Of specific interest for the game tonight is that Bumgarner does not show an especially large platoon split (albeit in a very small sample), so he won’t be at a marked disadvantage against the Braves right-handed hitters. Moreover, platoon splits are a two-way street — both pitchers and hitters have their own “personal” platoon skillls — and while Atlanta rookie Jason Heyward has a small sample and catcher Brian McCann has a smaller-than-usual-for-lefties platoon split, Bumgarner will have a platoon advantage on the two best hitters in the Braves’ injury-ravaged lineup. If Bumgarner does get into trouble, the whole San Francisco bullpen should be available due to an off-day on Tuesday. Look for plenty of commentary on Bumgarner’s lack of playoff experience given the way absence of such experience recently has been a big problem for pitchers like Lincecum and Roy Halladay.

The Giants’ offense is supposed their biggest edge over the Braves, but that edge hasn’t manifested itself in the series so far, mostly because the Braves have excellent pitchers of their own. With the Braves facing elimination, they shouldn’t hesitate to empty their bullpen, and Bobby Cox usually doesn’t. Until last night, the Braves ‘pen had been pretty much untouchable in the series (and even last night the Giants needed some “help”), and their regular-season numbers bear that out. With Billy Wagner injured, the Braves have put Takashi Saito back on the roster, giving them a lot of situational flexibility. [An an aside: I’ve noticed that some seem to think that Bobby Cox made the wrong call in bringing in Michael Dunn to face Aubrey Huff last night because Huff has hit lefties and righties equally well this season. I won’t go over the specific calculations in detail. Although in 188 plate appearances against southpaws in 2010 Huff hit them almost as well as northpaws, from 2002 to the present he has had 1672 plate appearances against lefties in which he displayed a roughly average split. Moreover, Dunn’s platoon skill factors in as well, and he has been devastating against lefties. Cox’s decision regarding the platoon aspect of the situation was right on.] And that is before even considering Braves’ starter Derek Lowe, who can still pitch, as he displayed in holding the Giants to one run in Game One. Lowe has had success when pitching on short rest before, and again, the Braves have a great bullpen to call on if he gets into trouble or if they need to pinch-hit for him early.

The Giants have good reason to feel confident about their situation. Despite being on the road, they only have to win one of the next two games (and if a second game is necessary it will be at home with their ace on the mound), and despite their general offensive ineffectiveness so far they are still better off than the decimated Braves lineup. However, the Braves’ own good pitchers have shown that they are able to keep the Giants from pulling away, and given how the last two games have ended, it would be surprising if there weren’t more surprises that took this series down to its final out.

Against all odds, my attempt Friday to predict not only the exact score, but also to provide a precise play-by-play rendering of Game Two in the Philadelphia-Cincinnati NLDS series — well, it wasn’t a rousing success. As it happened, Roy Oswalt didn’t strike out 15 batters, and Chase Utley didn’t hit the inside-the-park home run I was so sure he would. Nor was I able to account for the Reds’defensive woes.

With regard to my failure, all I can say is that, like a politician who’s recently been tied to a New York City-based call-girl ring, I am humbled.

On the subject of humility, however, there appears to be one resident of Philadelphia who’s not feeling too much of it presently — namely, Mr. Charlie Manuel. With Cole Hamels set to start Game Three this evening (at 8:07 ET), and Roys Halladay and Oswalt ready to pitch hypothetical Games Four and Five, Manuel’s feeling pretty confident, as evidenced by his comments in AP writer Jay Cohen’s game preview:

[W]hile Reds manager Dusty Baker is talking about faith, his time in the military and a self-help book he read earlier this year, Manuel feels comfortable enough to say he doesn’t like Cincinnati’s chances of advancing.

“It can happen,” the grinning manager said Saturday. “It ain’t goin’ to happen, but it can happen.”

I can’t say for sure what the proper response is to these comments. Does it demonstrate undue hubris? Is Manuel merely being realistic? Ought Jay Cohen be given a Pulitzer immediately for accurately rendering Charlie Manuel’s spoken English in print?

I don’t know.

In any case, here were this author’s reactions, one-by-one:

1. Wow, did he really say that?

2. [Re-reading] Yes, he appears to’ve said that.

3. [Thinking in My Brain] He maybe shouldn’t’ve said that. The payoff for being correct is much lower than the penalty for being incorrect. Unjustified or unfulilled or un-whatever hubris is generally taboo in the sporting world.

4. On the other hand, he’s probably right. Even if these two teams are evenly matched and only home-field advantage informs the resulting outcomes, that still gives Philadelphia about an 87% chance of winning the series [1 – (.542*.542*.458)].

5. I should note this in that frigging game preview I have to write.

Before I continue, let’s agree on one thing, please — that the subject of “guaranteed victories” is a tired one. Joe Namath’s was pretty excellent, I suppose, because it’s the oldest famous one. But subsequent guarantees — and, seriously, I refuse to spend even one second of my life cataloging them — ring hollow. By definition, one needs to speak in probabilities when it comes to victory.

In any case, this is what makes Manuel’s statements notable — both (a) his acknowledgement of the probabilities and (b) recognition that the Phils’ chances of winning their series are really high. Where usually a player or manager might say, “Yeah, we just gotta go out there and continue to play our game” and/or “That’s a good team in that other dugout,” Manuel’s basically like, “We’re at least as good as the other team, and we have a 2-0 games lead. You fill in the blanks, dogg.”

Is this making a mountain out of the proverbial mole hill? Perhaps, except for two things: (a) I, personally, haven’t ever seen a manager make comments of this nature precisely, and (b) because this is the playoffs, all such comments are necessarily magnified.