Archive for Game Preview

Actually, we’re not all special: that’s tonight’s important message.

Nationals at Americans | Tuesday, July 13 | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Nationals: Ubaldo Jimenez (NERD: 8)
127.0 IP, 8.01 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, .248 BABIP, 51.9% GB, 5.4% HR/FB, 3.71 xFIP

Americans: David Price (NERD: 8)
115.1 IP, 7.80 K/9, 3.36 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 47.2% GB, 7.8% HR/FB, 3.95 xFIP

A Logic Problem
The All-Star Game, as the urban youth of our country would likely say, “is what it is.” “Is what it is,” as the academics in our country would likely say, represents an instance of tautology. Therefore, it can be said that the All-Star Game is itself tautological.

Discuss.

(Seriously. Do it. Now.)

Service, With or Without a Smile
I think I’m stating the obvious when I say that we at FanGraphs view ourselves — more than baseball fans or ruthless capitalists — we view ourselves as public servants. (Indeed, no other reasonable explanation exists for Jack Moore’s decision to tweet factoids about Joe Morgan’s career, with no prompting whatsoever, at approximately 3am local time.)

To further continue this commitment to our readership, I’ve included the complete rosters for each team at the end of this post — all with links to each respective All-Star’s FanGraphs player card.

An Obligatory Comment in re Colby Lewis
Paddy McMahon of Around the Majors and Knuckle Curve Semi-Drop tweeted the following almost-true truth:

PadmanJones colby lewis is tied with the AL’s ASG starter (price) in WAR. lewis is not on the team. @cistulli mad.

I say “almost true” for this reason: I’m not mad. Rather, it’s probably something more like melancholy that I’m feeling. Colby Lewis, as is widely known, has been responsible for a very many, very intense spiritual experiences. Yet, millions will be robbed tonight of Lewis’s extraordinary mound presence and his darting slutter.

“Fie, for shame,” is the only reasonable response to that.

If I Had My Druthers
• In the midst of a high-leverage situation, American League coach Joe Girardi would come to the mound and signal for a right-handed reliever.
• Simultaneously, Colby Lewis would enter Angel Stadium, from the sky, via parachute, and land on the mound part of the field.
• Also, Lewis would breathe fire. (Note: I recognize that fire-breathing isn’t entirely related to the rest of the fantasy, but if I had my druthers, that’s what would happen.)

Read the rest of this entry »

For better or worse, today’s edition of One Night Only was penned by a white person.

Ya heard!

Minnesota at Toronto | Wednesday, July 7 | 7:07pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Twins: Kevin Slowey (NERD: 4)
88.2 IP, 6.39 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, .325 BABIP, 27.9% GB, 8.7% GB, 4.64 xFIP

Blue Jays: Marc Rzepczynski (Season Debut)
61.1 IP, 8.80 K/9, 4.40 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 51.2% GB, 14.9% HR/FB, 3.70 xFIP (2009)

Hot Button Topic
It’s amazing how, for all the handwringing and outrage in re the ethics of human cloning, how no one’s mentioned that the Minnesota Twins have been doing it for years. Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, every single pitcher in their current starting rotation: they’re genetically engineered not to walk batters. (Actually, come to think of it, maybe “Twins” isn’t just an allusion to regional geography, but a sly clue as to the organization’s illicit bioengineering operation.)

In any case, Kevin Slowey is very clearly a product of the Twinkers’ advanced scientific efforts. On the season, 54.1% of his pitches have been in the zone. That places him fifth overall among 109 qualified pitchers.

Quick, Get a Graphing Calculator!
And plot the following points (x, y): (2008, 36.1%), (2009, 32.0%), (2010, 27.9%). Now insert a best-fit line up in that piece.

Notice anything? Those y-coordinates are Slowey’s groundball rates. They’re going down, down, down — like, to the point where they might be negative someday.

Question: Should the Twins just play with three infielders when Slowey pitches? Like, have a first baseman, two other infielders, and then a softball-type outfield? I’m not joking a lot.

Actually, What I Wanted to Say Is
Tonight’s starter for the Blue Jays, Marc Rzepczynski, is making his season debut after missing the first three months of the season to a fractured middle finger that he sustained while attempting to field a comebacker during spring training.

You can tell from his numbers above that the Rze had a pretty excellent major league debut, inducing strikeouts and ground balls at an above-average rate, and thus leading to his sub-4.00 xFIP. The Rze profiles — at least, statistically — like a couple others guys: Jonathan Sanchez (but with more grounders), Gio Gonzalez (but with more grounders), Jorge de la Rosa, and Manny Parra.

The thing is, the Rze’s fastball velocity (88.0 mph in 2009) doesn’t even come within 2 mph of the slowest guy on that list (Sanchez, who averages about 91 mph). Moreover, his (below-average) swinging-strike rate of 7.3% suggests that his strikeout totals might have been flukish. Even so, he’s an interesting case study.

How to Pronounce Rzepczynski
Put your lips together and blow — but while you’re blowing, say the entire alphabet in Polish.

Ta-da!

If I Had My Druthers
• Either Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion would hit a Kevin Slowey fastball all the way to America.
• U.S. armed forces would shoot down said home run ball — via both air and ground fire — at the very moment it crossed into American air space.
• The entire thing would be videotaped using the same technology as in The Matrix.

Today’s edition of One Night Only is totally organic and farm-raised and all that crap.

Cleveland at Texas | Tuesday, July 6 | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Indians: Justin Masterson (NERD: 8)
94.2 IP, 7.32 K/9, 3.99 BB/9, .345 BABIP, 64.2% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP

Rangers: C.J. Wilson (NERD: 2)
102.1 IP, 6.42 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, .258 BABIP, 51.0% GB, 5.9% HR/FB, 4.64 xFIP

A Possible Comment You’re Making
Hey, chief: what’s the deal? C.J. Wilson has a crap NERD score. What’re you thinking? Why not talk about Jered Weaver (8) versus Jake Peavy (6) tonight. Or CC Sabathia (7) versus Trevor Cahill (6)?

Two or Three Comments I’m Making Right Back
1. Don’t call me “chief.”

2. Yes, it’s true: we live in a post-NERD world now. And, yes, we have to face it: things just aren’t as simple as they used to be. I get it. But we also have to make sure that — despite the fact that simply because the incredibly proprietary and deadly accurate NERD score is designed to make our lives easier — we have to make sure that we don’t stop using our mind grapes. It’s like that part in the Bible where God says, “And I giveth thee Mind Grapes, so that ye will always use them, etc., etc.” That’s a direct quote. I’m not lying.

Anyway, if you’ll recall, when Jerome Holtzman invented the Save, he was doing so merely to credit a certain breed of pitcher for their otherwise nebulous contributions to the game. What happened, as we generally know, is that coaches began to deploy relievers not according to leverage (if they ever really did in the first place, I don’ know), but according to the criteria of the save. That’s what we in the industry refer to as “totally lame-o.”

3. My point: C.J. Wilson has become a credible starting pitcher — one with a groundball rate above 50% — after relieving all of last season and for most of his career before that.

Cleveland’s Rookie Crop
If, like that great philosopher Socrates, you’re into hairless youths, then the Cleveland Indians are very probably your jam. Here’s the Cleveland lineup from last night’s game at Texas.

Michael Brantley, CF, 23
Jayson Nix, 2B, 27
Carlos Santana, C, 24
Travis Hafner, DH, 33
Austin Kearns, RF, 30
Jhonny Peralta, 3B, 28
Matt LaPorta, 1B, 25
Trevor Crowe, LF, 26
Jason Donald, SS, 25

Per Baseball Reference, the average age of a field player in the MLB this year is 29.2 years old. Cleveland’s lineup last night had an average age of 26.8 years old.

Briefly, On Carlos Santana
He’s so good. Right now, he’s slashing .297/.436/.622. That’s good for a .447 wOBA and 184 wRC+. He’s walking (19 BB) more than he strikes out (14 K). He hit a ball 444 feet last night.

Briefly, On Jayson Nix
He appears to be the new second baseman for the Indians. He hit two homers for the Tribe last night. Also, if, hypothetically speaking, you’re the sort of person who owned both Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley on your fantasy team, Nix might not be the worst replacement in the world. He had 12 homers and 10 stolen bases for the White Sox in just half a season last year.

If I Had My Druthers
The next person to whom I mention the name Carlos Santana will not, like almost all of his predecessors, make an allusion to Black Magic Woman or sweet guitar licks or anything else like that.

Stephen Strasburg is pitching tonight (at 4:35pm ET, versus Brian Bannister and Kansas City). It goes without saying that every American boy should watch that game while holding his father’s hand. But there are other baseball games, too, and one of them — Minnesota at Milwaukee — is deserving of the baseball nerd’s attention.

For this edition of One Night Only, I contacted certain members of the nerdosphere who possess intimate knowledge of the teams participating in tonight’s game. I also contacted my friend Dan Lurie, who, despite not being a member of the nerdosphere proper, is a bang-up gentleman and Minnesota native.

Of each contributor I requested two or three bullet points in response to the following prompt:

Knowing your team the way you do, what’s something a general audience should know ahead of this contest?

Their responses (in the relevant sections below) are almost entirely verbatim, copied right from my email account to these electronic pages. Thus, if the syntax differs from one section to the other, well, you’re invited to deal with it.

Voila:

Minnesoter at Mawaukee | Wednesay, June 23 | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Twins: Francisco Liriano (NERD: 10)
87.2 IP, 9.55 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, .339 BABIP, 48.7% GB, 2.7% HR/FB, 3.07 xFIP

Brewers: Manny Parra (6)
48.1 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, .362 BABIP, 49.3% GB, 10.6% HR/FB, 3.81 xFIP

From Larry Granillo, Owner-Operator of Wezen Ball
• There’s little doubt that the Brewers’ terrible pitching has done the most damage to the team’s chances this season. A close second, however, is the terrible defense. The only positions to have a positive UZR among the regulars are Carlos Gomez in CF (UZR of 0.6 in 338 innings) and Alcides Escobar at SS (1.9 in 518 innings). Jim Edmonds has a 1.3 UZR in 264 innings across all three outfield positions.
• Despite that porous defense, and despite Fielder’s career -6.4 UZR/150 at first base, the Brewers have started someone other than Prince at first only once in the last 260 or so games, and that was only last week. Also, since Prince announced his vegetarianism before the start of the 2008 season, he has hit 93 home runs, driven in 270 runs, and put up a .930 OPS. If he’s still on that diet, it hasn’t exactly sapped his strength.
• The Brewers have not won a game in which the Chorizo won the sausage race… Ok, I made that one up. But the Brewers do have an NL worst 11-19 record at home. The only team with a worse home record in baseball is the Orioles. That’s not exactly the company you want to keep

From Jack Moore, Math Snob and Owner-Operator of Disciples of Uecker
• Parra’s [been] awesome [in his] last three starts, as we talked about in the pod. [The pod, that is, which I am almostly defintely editing as you read these words. Promise! – Cistulli]
• Jonathan Lucroy is a relatively exciting prospect, as he’s a solid defensive catcher, and a good contact hitter who should be a solid, above-average ML catcher.
• For all the talk about Jim Edmonds being a poor fielder, he’s hitting extremely well this year at age 39 and coming off a year away from baseball. This is the second time the Brewers have come up big on a guy who was out of baseball, after Gabe Kapler in 2008.
• John Axford is awesome and has a fantastic mustache and a 94-97 MPH fastball.

From Bryz, Owner-Operator of Off the Mark
• If you are communicating online or via text about Francisco Liriano during the game, you must call him FranKKKKie (one K for every strikeout he has recorded. If he has none, then default to Liriano). Bonus points if you do this verbally and/or can include backwards Ks.
• Prince Fielder may be a vegetarian now, but Delmon Young has been far more successful in losing weight.
• Insiders claim that Carl Pavano and John Axford have a $500 wager on who will have the better mustache by the end of the season.

From My G, Dan Lurie, Front Man of The Grapefruit League
• There’s the coming-of-age story of Delmon Young who is cooking right now (maybe because he can finally be confident that he’ll be in the lineup almost every day). Dude has been notching some clutch hits lately and seems to have cut down a bit on his wild free-swinging. He’s also much more svelte, as we’ve discussed during past viewings. [This is true. We’ve talked about this. Dan Lurie is absolutely not lying. – Cistulli]
• As for prospects, Danny Valencia has been up for a couple weeks and started 3B again Tuesday night, after Gardy got bold the past few days and had Cuddyer starting over there.
• Also, please note this ridiculous Punto t-shirt.

A Tweet from Dayn Perry
In the event that you haven’t seen the face part of John Axford yet, this tweet from Dayn Perry will give you an idea of what to expect:

John Axford looks like he should be in a Victorian stage play tying a chaste maiden to the railroad tracks.

One Other Match-Up That’ll Probably Be Pretty Great
Randy Wells (8) at Cliff Lee (10), 10:10pm ET.

If I Had My Druthers
• Manny Parra would throw off the burdensome yoke of Fortune. I mean, it’s a seriously heavy yoke that probably hurts him alot.

Tonight’s array of games might best be described as “dizzying” — or, if not “dizzying,” then “wicked dizzying.”

Seriously, the five games below (analyzed in depth via the wonder of bullet point) are only the tip of the NERD iceberg, and completely omit tonight’s highly anticipated showdown between Scott Baker and Chris Narveson. Ya heard!

(Totally infallible NERD scores in parentheses.)

Jaime Garcia (8) at Brett Cecil (7), 7:07pm ET
• Startling fact: Between them, Garcia and Cecil are younger than Jamie Moyer.
• Likely occurrence: Jose Bautista hits an a-million-foot home run.
• Word of warning: The Rogers Centre, or whatever you wanna call it, is un peu de sad and depressing — on TV, in person, whatever.

Justin Verlander (8) at Jonathon Niese (6), 7:10pm ET
• Not-that-startling-but-still-true fact: Justin Verlander throws his fastball at an average of 95.8 mph.
• Additionally: He often follows it up with a curveball best described as “stoopit.”
• In conclusion: It’s a little bit mystifying that he’s only running an 8.2% swinging-strike rate. Not that I’m complaining.

Tim Lincecum (10) at Roy Oswalt (9), 8:05pm ET
• Direct quote: “Hi, my name’s Tim Lincecum. I have kinda a dumb haircut. But also, guess what? I’m about to throw you my changeup and you’re going to (a) swing at and (b) miss it.”
• Other direct quote: “Hi, my name’s Roy Oswalt. You may have forgotten about me, on account of I play on a team that blows. But guess what? I’m averaging more strikeouts per nine innings (8.68) than I have at any other point in my career, save my very first season in the majors, 2001, when I also threw a whole bunch of relief innings.”
• Jason Castro and Chris Johnson are the closest things the Astros have to bone fide prospects. They’re also very likely to play tonight.

Jon Lester (8) at Jhoulys Chacin (7), 8:40pm ET
• Some people — including resident philosicator Matt Klaassen — have suggested that lefties deserve a velocity adjustment of sorts for NERD. Like, lefties should get 3 mph added to their fastballs, or something. In fact, Lester already has one of the league’s fastest fastpieces
• Startling fact: The Red Sox are only a game out of first place. Say wha-?
• Shocking discovery: Ryan Spilborghs is not related to a certain, incredibly famous Hollywood director.

Andy Pettitte (5) at Dan Haren (9), 9:40pm ET
• Dan Haren might be the single most interesting fantasy trade target right now, given how far his ERA (4.71) is above his xFIP (3.43). His BABIP and HR/FB are way higher than in previous years. His LOB% is way lower. Carpe the diem outta that crap, is what I’m saying.
• Cole Gillespie will probably start in left for Arizona. He’s youngish and worth a damn.
• Adam LaRoche. What? I like Adam LaRoche. So sue me. (Actually, on second thought, maybe don’t sue me. That’s not gonna work out well for anybody.)

On this Father’s Day Weekend, One Night Only wants to know: is Steve Garvey your Padre?

Friday, June 18
Behold: Gavin Floyd (NERD: 7) at Stephen Strasburg (10), 7:05pm ET
• On account of he’s as yet to top the 20 IP mark, Strasburg doesn’t show up on the proprietary NERD spreadsheet yet. But were he to, he’d probably break the frig out of it. His xFIP (1.55), swinging-strike rate (15.3%), and fastball velocity (97.8 mph) are all multiple standard deviations from the mean. And also, he’s only 21. So, boom goes that particular brand of dynamite, I guess. Nor should Gavin Floyd’s contribution to this game be overlooked entirely. Despite sporting a 5.64 ERA, his xFIP is a considerably tidier 3.99.

If You Can Handle It: Johnny Cueto (8) at Cliff Lee (10), 10:10pm ET
• Lee is one of only five pitchers — along with Josh Johnson, Francisco Liriano, Roy Halladay, and Tim Wakefield — currently sporting a perfect NERD score. He does it just by having an h-o-t xFIP and throwing strikes. Cueto gets there by a pretty different route: his age (24) and fastball velocity (93.3 mph). Cueto’s four-seamer also has a 11.8% whiff rate. Pretty good.

What to Make Of: Dontrelle Willis (0) at Armando Galarraga (3), 7:05pm ET
• To what degree does Galarraga’s very famous and mostly perfect game affect our desire to watch him after the fact? Certainly, the start right after a historical game is worth a look. But the fact remains: he’s still Armando Galarraga. He doesn’t really get swing-and-misses, he’s got a lifetime 4.78 xFIP (4.92 through 33.2 IP this year), and he not gonna throw another perfect game.

Saturday, June 19
Behold: Vicente Padilla (9) at Tim Wakefield (10), 4:10pm ET
• Padilla’s elevated score is a result of there being no point deduction for having a giant, fat head. That and he has an xFIP of 3.95 versus an ERA of 6.65. It’s also worth noting that this weekend marks Manny Ramirez‘ return to the scene of at least some of his crimes. Fun drinking game: take a shot every time Joe Buck either (a) waxes moralistic about “players these days” or (b) subtly suggests that football is better than baseball. You’re gonna get wasted, believe me!

Also Consider: Zack Greinke (7) at Kris Medlen (7), 7:10pm ET
• It’s like a Zen koan: is the pleasure of watching Zack Greinke worth the pain of watching the Kansas City offense (or defense, for that matter)? With Kris Medlen pitching, it might be. The young Atlantan has two pitches that are a joy to watch. First, there’s his two-seamer, which hella tails. Second — and perhaps most impressively — there’s his changepiece. Medlen gets whiffs on 28% of his change-ups, compared to a league-average of just 15% on the same pitch.

I Don’t Care, I’m Still Watching: Colby Lewis (5) at Brian Moehler (0)
• Colby Lewis is in my heart and he’s in my soul. Also, he’s probably gonna be my breath should I grow old. So, back off.

Sunday, June 20
Speed Round!
• This marks, I think, the fourth or fifth consecutive time that Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson have pitched on the same day. Two of those were against each other, and they were excellent games both times. Today the former faces Carl Pavano (6) at 1:35pm ET, while the latter takes on David Price (6) at 1:10pm ET. In re Tampa, do you wanna guess who’s the team-leader in OBP, or do you want me to tell you? How about you guess.

• Ian Kennedy (5) and Max Scherzer (8) were involved in a three-way over the winter. Oh snap! (Note: this bullet is brought to you by the 18- to 34-year-old male demographic.)

• More will be made of Johan Santana (4) at CC Sabathia (7) than is probably right.

• What sort of bonus does a major league debut deserve? How about the second and third starts for the same pitcher? Do we give 3, 2, and then 1 extra point? In any case, today is Brad Lincoln’s third career start. That may or may not appeal to you. Two things that are more appealing, probably, are Justin Masterson (8) and all of Pittsburgh’s youth — including the recently promoted Pedro Alvarez.

• Felipe Paulino is alternately devestating and terrible. Either way, if you like to see ball go fast, he’s your dude. He’ll be throwing fastpieces at 96 mph against C.J. Wilson &co. at 2:05pm ET.

Tonight’s main event is of the “no-brainer” variety.

In other words, you can watch it even if you don’t have a brain.

Florida at Philadelphia | Wednesay, June 09 | 7:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Marlins: Josh Johnson (NERD: 10)
77.0 IP, 9.00 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, .286 BABIP, 48.5% GB, 4.8% HR/FB, 3.25 xFIP

Phils: Roy Halladay (NERD: 10)
93.0 IP, 7.45 K/9, 1.26 BB/9, .302 BABIP, 53.4% GB, 4.3% HR/FB, 2.93 xFIP

First, It Needs to Be Said
The NERD scores you see above are slightly different than the ones I introduced to the wide readership last week. One of the biggest flaws of NERD 1.0 was the total absence of velocity as a component. In NERD 1.1 — or whatever’s the nerdiest possible name for it — I’ve added the absolute value of each pitcher’s z-score (i.e. standard deviations from the mean) for velocity. That gives a bump not only to Ubaldo Jimenez (+2.23) and Justin Verlander (+1.95), but also to Tim Wakefield (+6.10) and Jamie Moyer (+3.30). I’ll submit a recalculation, probably with some other improvements, as soon as sloth allows.

Second, It Also Needs to Be Said
There are only five pitchers (out of about 160) with perfect NERD scores at the moment: Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Francisco Liriano, and the two guys pitching tonight. Actually, go ahead and add Stephen Strasburg to that list, just for Esses and Gees. Still, that’s not too many.

Watch For
• Roy Halladay’s Command. Is there a difference between command and control? I’m not convinced — although I’m willing to be. In any case, if there is a difference, my bet is that Halladay is likely an object lesson in such a thing. It’s not just that Halladay doesn’t walk guys — Doug Fister has about the same BB/9 — it’s that he owns the strike zone.
• Josh Johnson’s Fastball. Johnson has the fourth-fastest average fastball velocity among qualified starters. Not until I engaged upon this absurd experiment — i.e. NERD and its attendant concerns — have I truly realized how thrilling velocity is to behold. And it’s some combination of velocity and placement that gives Johnson’s fastball a 9.2% whiff rate on the season — compared to a 7% or so whiff rate across all major leaguers on same pitch.
• Mike Stanton, Part Deux. The 20-year-old outfielder made his debut for Florida yesterday. Here’s his line from Double-A Jacksonville: .311/.441/.726. So, uh, that happened.

If I Had My Druthers
• Hallday would throw his cutter to lefties a whole bunch. Halladay can throw said pitch right at the back foot of a lefty batter. Like, he threw two of them to Chase Headley in the the third inning of his last start. Headley swung and missed at both. Voila:

Note: The title of this post makes almost no sense in the context of what follows — and, yet, it feels so right.

If you’re the sort of person who has to “work tomorrow,” then maybe tonight’s game isn’t for you.

If that’s the case, however, you might wanna ask your doctor if you’re suffering from a really serious condition known as Being a Giant Puss.

I’m just saying.

Atlanta at Arizona | Monday, June 07 | 9:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Braves: Derek Lowe (NERD: 5)
71.0 IP, 5.32 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, .288 BABIP, 59.1% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 4.21 xFIP

D-Backs: Dan Haren (NERD: 10)
82.0 IP, 9.11 K/9, 1.65 BB/9, .342 BABIP, 43.9% GB, 17.0% HR/FB, 3.22 xFIP

A Question You’re Asking, Stat
Carson, fess up: did you just pick this game because it came first alphabetically?

The Answer I’m Answering
That’s ridiculous. I don’t even know the alphabet.

Watch For
• Dan Haren. Haren is of supreme interest to the baseball nerd at the moment. While posting an xFIP (3.22) completely in line with his performances of the previous two seasons, the righty currently sports his highest ERA (4.83) since 2003. If you like to watch regression in action — and because you’re a nerd, you almost definitely do like to watch regression in action — you can watch it tonight in Phoenix.
• Jason Heyward. I says to my friend Danny the other day, I says: “Danny, would you watch an Atlanta Braves game just to see Jason Heyward?” As he was currently drinking like his 17th beer, his answer was mostly a kinda frightening combination of grunts and snarls, but what I gathered from him is that, yes, he would do that kind of thing.
• Kelly Johnson. True or false: He’s better than Bad News Bear Kelly Leak. You decide, America!

Did You Know That
Dan Haren’s strikeout rate has increased literally every year he’s been in the league? Check it, 2003-10: 5.33, 6.26, 6.76, 7.10, 7.76, 8.58, 8.75, and this year’s 9.11. If my calculations are correct, Dan Haren will strike out more batters than is even possible to face in the year 2017.

Also, Did You Know That
Jason Heyward is like 60 or a hundred feet tall? At least that’s how big he looks from the comfort of my own living room.

If I Had My Druthers
• Dan Haren would strike out all 27 Braves in order.
• Jason Heyward would still somehow manage four homers.
• My wife wouldn’t make us (i.e. me and her) shop at Whole Foods all the time. (No, not relevant at all to the present game, but still a druther I’d really like to have.)

In the event that you somehow didn’t notice all the confetti and bunting left over from the big unveiling, I announced earlier this week the introduction of NERD to the public imagination.

Essentially, NERD represents an attempt to anticipate what games might be most appealing to the baseball nerd (read: you and you and you). It’s in its most infant stages right now, but is probably better than nothing at the moment. As such, it’s with zero apologies that I’ve utilized it to look at this weekend’s pitching match-ups.

Remember, NERD is graded on a 1-10 scale (for starters with 20+ IP) in terms of how appealing a pitcher is to the nerd aesthetic. For each day of the weekend, I’ve looked at three types of game: one that’s appealing by NERD’s standards (Behold), one that’s totally unappealing (Flee), and one that NERD might not quite yet be ready to assess correctly (Also Consider).

Friday, June 04
Behold: Mat Latos (7) at Roy Halladay (10), 7:05pm ET
• Halladay is one of three pitchers — alongside Cliff Lee and the very unlucky Dan Haren — currently sporting a perfect NERD score. Like Lee, Halladay is shockingly effective without throwing a ton of swing-and-miss pitches, relying instead on controlling the strike zone and getting grounders.

Flee: Joe Saunders (0) at Ian Snell (0), 10:10pm ET
• Saunders is a soft-tosser who doesn’t throw strikes. Snell has 1:1 K:BB and only 33% groundball rate. Together, they form a perfect storm of mediocrity.

Also Consider: Clay Buchholz (6) at Chris Tillman (NA), 7:05pm ET
• Tonight marks Tillman’s second ML start of the year after being recalled from Triple-A Norfolk last week. Also, the average age of tonight’s starters is a mere 23.5 years old. Also, did you know that Buchholz has posted about a 53% groundball rate in his last 150 major league innings? Why does no one tell me these things?!?

Saturday, June 05
Behold: Carlos Silva (7) at Roy Oswalt (9), 7:05pm ET
• The thing we know that NERD doesn’t (yet!) is that Houston’s offense, currently way last in batting runs, is officially a threat to the human spirit. In terms of just the pitching match-up, though, Silva versus Oswalt promises to be a strike fest. Quick thing: did you know that Oswalt is currently posting his highest K rate since 2002? Well, he is: 9.08 K/9. This, after posting right around 7 K/9 for like the last five years.

Flee: Todd Wellemeyer (0) at Paul Maholm (3), 7:05pm ET
• Ick.

Also Consider: James Shields (9) at Tommy Hunter (NA), 4:10pm ET
• Dave Cameron’s favorite for this year’s Cy is essentially — in terms of product, if not process — is essentially the right-handed version of Cliff Lee right now, absolutely filling up the strike zone while getting enough whiffs to make such an approach truly menacing. Hunter, I’m not so excited about, but he is just 23 and this is just his second ML start of the season. There’s room for curiosity there.

Sunday, June 06
Behold: Javier Vazquez (5) at Brandon Morrow (8), 1:07pm ET
• While last year’s NERD leader Vazquez has fallen on hard times, Morrow is delivering on some of his potential right now, currently behind only Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw in swinging-strike rate. And while it may surprise the frig out of Seattle fans, Morrow is actually throwing about a league-average rate of strikes (61.4%).

Flee: Matt Garza (4) at Rich Harden (0), 3:05pm ET
• Harden is currently sporting a below-average whiff rate — this after producing three consecutive years of 15%-plus in the same category. When he’s not producing swing-and-misses, Harden’s hard to watch. Garza’s mediocre NERD might surprise you, especially if you’re looking at his 3.08 ERA. But he’s basically a league-average dude right now: normal whiff rate (7.5%), normal xFIP (4.43).

Also Consider: Tim Lincecum (9, 1:35pm ET) and Ubaldo Jimenez (7, 4:10pm ET)
• Only problem is, these guys aren’t facing each other. Lincecum goes up against Ross Ohlendorf (0), who’s almost as unappealing to the nerd as possible. Rodrigo Lopez pitches for Arizona against Jimenez. The fact that Jimenez gets a 7 on the current NERD scale is proof that the system needs to incorporate Awesomeness into its criteria. Or at least fastabll velocity. One or the other.

You know what’s the worst? Thinking! And you know what’s doubly the worst? Having to think even for a second about what games to watch over the weekend.

Well, now — thanks to cutting-edge research (that, and the internet) — you don’t have to.

Hail, nerds! These are your games of the weekend.

Texas at Minnesota | Friday, May 28 | 8:10 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Colby Lewis
57.1 IP, 9.10 K/9, 3.77 BB/9, .263 BABIP, 38.4% GB, 7.9% HR/FB 3.98 xFIP

Twins: Kevin Slowey
49.2 IP, 6.89 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, .350 BABIP, 28.1% GB, 9.6% HR/FB, 4.63xFIP

Watch For
• Colby Lewis. Duh.
• Of 113 qualified pitchers, Kevin Slowey has the absolute lowest groundball rate in the majors. Here are some people who’re happy about that: Ian Kinsler and Vladimir Guerrero and Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz and Justin Smoak.
• Smoak is currently sporting a slash line of .173/.287/.317, but here’s what nerds know: he’s not that bad! Smoak’s BABIP is a paltry .171. StatCorner places his regressed wOBA (wOBAr) at .367.

The Other Reason I’ll Be Watching This
Because my friend Dan, a Twins fan, invited me to.

What You’re Saying to Me
What is that my business?

What I’m Replying Back
Sorry, guy. I just thought it’d be possible to reach out and forge a real human connection. Like in that one movie where two people from totally different worlds — he’s a ruthless entrepreneur, she’s a small-town librarian — forge a real human connection.

If I Had My Druthers
• Americans would stand up and take notice of Justin Smoak.
• Americans, while standing up and noticing Justin Smoak, would resist the urge to call him the Smoak Monster.
• Americans would start being polite, and stop being real.

Houston at Cincinnati | Saturday, May 29 | 7:10 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Astros: Bud Norris*
43.2 IP, 11.13 K/9, 5.36 BB/9, .400 BABIP, 36.8% GB, 11.4% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP

Reds: Aaron Harang
58.2 IP, 7.36 K/9, 1.99 BB/9, .353 BABIP, 41.4% GB, 16.9% HR/FB, 3.79 xFIP

Watch For
• Norris and Harang. The pair are currently two of the least lucky pitchers (per ERA-xFIP) in the majors. Norris has a 6.80 ERA; Harang, a 5.98 ERA. Impress your friends and/or standers-by with this knowledge!
• The Reds! They’re good. Offensive Rank (per WAR), 2009: 15th in the NL. Offensive Rank (per WAR), 2010: 5th!
• Jay Bruce regressing real hard back to (and then above) the mean. Bruce, 2009: .221 BABIP, 97 wRC+. Bruce, 2010: .348 BABIP, 127 wRC+.

If I Had My Druthers
• Aaron Harang would stop getting dumped on by Fortune.
• Miguel Cairo would not both start at first base and occupy the most important spot in the batting order.
• The part of the game where Houston’s supposed to bat wouldn’t exist.

*As reader Jason notes in the comments sections, Norris has actually been sent to the DL recently. In his place will be Gustavo Chacin. That’s less interesting than Norris. Sorry, dogggz.

Los Angeles (NL) at Colorado | Sunday, May 30 | 3:10 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw
59.0 IP, 9.61 K/9, 5.03 BB/9, .284 BABIP, 40.1% GB, 4.8% HR/FB, 4.25 xFIP

Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin
32.0 IP, 8.44 K/9, 3.66 BB/9, .249 BABIP, 41.9% GB, 6.7% HR/FB, 3.81 xFIP

Watch For
• Clayton Kershaw. Of starters with more than 20 IP, Kershaw is fourth — behind Tim Lincecum (13.5%), Brandon Morrow (13.0%), and Dan Haren (12.8%) — in swinging strike percentage (11.9%). His fastball, a pitch that league-wide gets swing-and-misses only about 7 percent of the time, is getting whiffs 11.8 percent of the time.
• Jhoulys Chacin can throw the frig out of a baseball and is only 22 years old.
• Chris Iannetta’s back in the majors after hitting .349/.447/.698 in his 70-something Triple-A plate appearances.

More on Kershaw
Matthew Carruth does these cool things for Lookout Landing where he looks at each pitcher’s basic repertoire and then grades it on the 20-80 scouting scale. The grades are determined by league percentiles in swinging strikes (K), strike rate (BB) and ground balls (GB) for each pitch.

Here’s what Kershaw’s looks like:

Pitch 	%	Sp 	K 	BB 	GB
FB 	71% 	94 	80 	60 	60
CB 	18% 	73 	45 	20 	60
SL 	6% 	82 	65 	35 	20
Overall	--	--	75	35	50

If I Had My Druthers
• Kershaw would just throw all those fastballs.
• The world would wake up and smell the Chris Iannetta.
• Actually, that’s gross.