There are five spots on a Cy Young ballot. This season, in the American League, only the first two are going to matter. Last year, Justin Verlander received the most first-place votes, with 14, but he was ranked second on just two ballots. Rick Porcello, meanwhile, received 18 second-place votes in addition to his eight at the top spot. Porcello ended up the winner.
This year, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber are likely to occupy the top two spots on every ballot, and whoever receives more first-place will probably take the award. The pair have produced very similar statistical records this year, so voters will have to split hairs to decide which of the two is more deserving. Let’s begin splitting some of those hairs right now, examining defense, contact quality, various sorts of WAR, and how they all influence each other when it comes to the two best pitchers in the American League.
To provide an initial tale of the tape of sorts, here are a few numbers with which most readers will be pretty familiar.
American League Cy Young: Corey Kluber v Chris Sale
Metric |
Chris Sale |
Corey Kluber |
IP |
195.2 |
184.2 |
K% |
35.9% |
34.6% |
BB% |
4.9% |
4.8% |
HR/9 |
0.83 |
0.97 |
BABIP |
.298 |
.264 |
ERA |
2.76 |
2.44 |
FIP |
2.20 |
2.55 |
WAR |
7.8 |
6.5 |
The strikeout and walk numbers are pretty equivalent. Sale has the edge in homers and innings, leading to a lower FIP and therefore WAR. Kluber has a much lower BABIP, which helps him lead in ERA. If you want to factor for league and park, we can do that. Sale’s FIP- is 50 to Kluber’s 57, and Sale’s ERA- is 61 to Kluber’s 54. Part of Kluber’s ERA advantage comes from that BABIP. He also has an 81.6% left-on-base percentage compared to Sale’s 76.7%, though, so part of the advantage is simply due to sequencing.
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