Back in 1947, nine players received at least 50% of the Hall of Fame vote. That’s the last time so many players have appeared on at least half the voters’ ballots. Until this year, that is. Three players were elected this time around (Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan Rodriguez.) Another six received more than 50% of the vote.

Generally speaking, breaking the 50% mark is a pretty good indication that a player is going to make it at some point. Jack Morris didn’t make it, Lee Smith barely got over 50% one year and now he’s been removed from the ballot. Gil Hodges never made it. But they’re in the definite minority.

So how does the future look for the six candidates who crossed the 50% threshold but failed to reach the 75% mark? And what about players who’ll become eligible in the near future? Trying to predict the fate of those holdovers three, four, five years from now presents challenges, but we can see who will have a shot. Below, I’ve attempted to do just that.

Names of candidates through 2021 from Baseball-Reference.

*****

2018

For a more detailed look at next year’s ballot, check out my piece on it here, but the list below contains the notable new players.

First-ballot no-doubters: Chipper Jones.

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We tend to form memories poorly. In middle school, my band teacher was fond of telling us that if you only played two parts of the song correctly, to make it the beginning and the end, because most people wouldn’t remember anything else.

So it may be with Andruw Jones. If you pressed most people on what they remember most about Jones, there’s a decent chance that they’d recall him as the 19-year-old who homered twice in the 1996 World Series and also as a really fat guy who was terrible in his 30s. In between those two endpoints, though, he had a Hall of Fame career.

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While fully acknowledging the honor bestowed upon Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan Rodriguez yesterday evening by the voters, it’s also never too early to begin looking ahead to next year’s Hall of Fame ballot. The three who gained election this time around were certainly deserving — and will receive due recognition this summer in Cooperstown. That said, there were a lot of players worthy of the Hall who failed to earn the requisite 75% for entry — and those players will be joined by even more great players seeking induction on the next ballot.

During the eight-year period from 2006 to 2013, the writers selected just 10 players for enshrinement. Over the last four years, however, 12 players have been elected, suggesting that the voters have changed their standards a bit to compensate for a stingier time.

Unfortunately, the increase has done little to clear the backlog of worthy players. Consider: of the 12 players inducted over the last four years, eight of them were elected on their first ballot. So, while it’s nice to know that certain deserving players have been given due recognition, there actually hasn’t been as much activity as one might suspect to benefit the other players worthy of Cooperstown. The last four years have seen Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Alan Trammell, and now Lee Smith age off the ballot, but the numbers of players who’ve exited from the ballot doesn’t compensate for the appearance of new qualified candidates.

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Whenever conventional wisdom and the numbers — or whatever conclusion I have drawn from the numbers — differ, I’m left wondering why such a difference exists. Many times there’s a good reason; other times, the reasons make less sense. One situation where my conclusions appear to differ from conventional wisdom comes in the form of Vladimir Guerrero and his case for the Hall of Fame. When recently considering Guerrero’s statistical credentials for the Hall, he seemed to fall short of the voting standards for most recent candidates who gained induction. At the same time, his name currently appears on 75% of this year’s ballots according to Ryan Thibodaux’s tracker. So what gives?

The easy answer is that voters — due to Guerrero’s brilliance and flair at the plate — are willing either to minimize or forgive entirely Guerrero’s defense and baserunning, as well as the fact that his last above-average season occurred at age-33. They aren’t necessarily wrong, as he certainly has a case by virtue of his peak and career WAR numbers. He also recorded a very good .318 career batting average and an MVP award. Plus, from 1997 to 2006, his 114 assists topped all outfielders, with his great arm obscuring his lack of range and errors, in which category (errors) he also topped MLB during that time. That’s probably the most reasonable explanation for why I concluded he was just below the cusp for the Hall of Fame — certainly worthy of consideration, but not a certain Hall of Famer like the voters appear close to making him.

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*Unless current standards are changed.

Making the Hall of Fame as a starting pitcher has never been harder than it is right now. Consider that in the last 25 years, only 11 starting pitchers have been elected to the Hall of Fame by the writers. During that same time period, four relievers have been elected, not including John Smoltz, and the pitcher closest to gaining election at the moment is Trevor Hoffman, also a reliever. We will get into active pitchers who have a shot at the Hall of Fame below, just like we looked at position players, but first let’s look at the nearly impossible standard Hall of Fame voters have created.

Over the last 25 years, back to 1992, here are the 11 starting pitchers who have been enshrined along with their WAR, Hall of Fame Rating, and their ranking among pitchers for said rating. You can read more about HOF Rating here. In essence, however, it represents an attempt to summarize a player’s Hall of Fame credentials by accounting both for peak and career.

Tom Glavine is the “worst” pitcher included here — if that’s an appropriate term to use — and he compiled more than 300 wins. His ERA was a bit lower than his FIP so by Jay Jaffe’s JAWS, which uses bWAR, Glavine ranks 30th among starters. There’s a pretty good argument that, over the last 25 years, a pitcher would have had to produce one of the 30 best careers ever in order to gain induction to the Hall. There are 67 starting pitchers currently in the Hall of Fame. The writers have long had tougher standards, but the next list shows the pitchers who were elected in the 25 years before 1992.

We have some truly great pitchers on this list. Koufax ranks a little lower here than one might place him if composing a more subjective list of greatest pitchers of all time — probably due to the way his career ended. Jim Palmer did sport a lower ERA than FIP, though how much Brooks Robinson had to do with that might be up for debate. Gaylord Perry pitched forever using (ahem) unique methods to keep pitching at a high level.

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Much like the run-up to Christmas or perhaps the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs, the Hall of Fame season seems to get longer and longer. Thanks to Ryan Thibidaux we have more data regarding how writers are voting and who might gain induction. Thanks to the revamping of the Veteran’s Committee, in the form of the Eras Committee, we’re able to begin debates over which overlooked players might be worthy of consideration. Also, the Hall of Fame has moved back the announcement of voting results by two weeks from last year, when Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza were received entry into the Hall of Famers. While early January might be more accurately considered the “leftover free-agent-market portion” of the baseball calendar, examining the cases of future Hall of Famers seems like a slightly more uplifting task. So, as part of this year’s Hall of Fame season, here’s a piece on active position players and what’s required of them to earn consideration for enshrinement when they become eligible.

First, a note: I’m not the first person to engage in this sort of exercise. Mike Petriello has now performed it two years running and Jay Jaffe took a brief look in the middle of last year, as well. In order to add some value to the conversation, we’ll take a look, using a WAR framework, at what exactly some of these players need to accomplish to establish their credentials for the Hall.

In each of the tables below, I’ve included every player’s HOF Ratings — about which metric one can read more here — and the median HOF Rating at the relevant position both for (a) all Hall of Famers regardless of how they got into the Hall of Fame and (b) Hall of Famers elected by the writers (denoted as BBWAA Median), who have had a tougher standard. Given the lapse in election by means of the Veterans (now Eras) Committee, it might be best to look more closely at the writer’s number in terms of likelihood of election. The last column shows an example of what the player likely needs to do to be a Hall of Famer or at least get in the discussion, where noted.

First, the guys who seem very likely to make the Hall of Fame.

Albert Pujols is an easy choice. Miguel Cabrera has already exceeded the standards for first basemen in the Hall, and with a few more good seasons will be better than Jeff Bagwell both by the advanced metrics and the traditional numbers. Ichiro presents a unique case given his late debut, but it’s difficult to see voters keeping him out with his considerable accomplishments. Adrian Beltre should be a no-brainer, but the writers have been particularly stingy when it comes to third baseman. Ron Santo couldn’t make it in on the writer’s ballots, for example, despite a strong resume. Although, to be fair, there haven’t been too many other third baseman who have had great cases. Chipper Jones has one for next year, Scott Rolen has a better case than one might think, and Beltre will have a great case in another half-dozen years or so.

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If you’re an avid FanGraphs reader, you might remember a piece I wrote January in which I wondered whether Vladimir Guerrero had the credentials of a Hall of Famer. The verdict? He does. As an inductee, he wouldn’t have the most impressive resume in the Hall, but he’d belong — and, according to the first 44 ballots collected by Ryan Thibodaux by way of his BBHOF Tracker, it appears as though the voters agree:

At 74%, Guerrero is right on the threshold for induction (which requires a candidate is named on 75% of ballots). That means that even if he isn’t selected this year Guerrero will almost certainly gain entry to the Hall next year. Which is great. Guerrero was a fantastic player. He’s deserving.

Larry Walker was also a great player, though. In most important ways, he was a superior one. And he’s received enough votes on previous Hall of Fame ballots to return for a seventh year. Like the previous six years, however, Walker is unlikely to be enshrined in Cooperstown this year — if the early polling holds steady, that is. In light of Guerrero’s seeming popularity, that’s strange. By most reasonable accounts, Walker has a better case. If you vote for Guerrero, you have to vote for Walker.

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While the Hall of Fame ballot is still heavy with deserving candidates, last season did help a bit in terms of making this year’s decision easier for voters. Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza gained entry this past January, Alan Trammell and Mark McGwire exhausted their eligibility, and both Jim Edmonds and Nomar Garciaparra failed to receive the necessary 5% of the vote required to remain on the ballot.

Among the newcomers, only four candidates — Vladimir Guerrero, Jorge Posada, Manny Ramirez, and Ivan Rodriguez — appear worthy of serious consideration. With more voters than ever choosing to fill their ballot with 10 names, several players close to induction — in particular Tim Raines, who enters his final year on the ballot — might stand to benefit.

Last year, Jeff Bagwell fell 15 votes short, while Raines and Trevor Hoffman received 23 and 34 fewer votes, respectively, than the 330 necessary to appear on 75% of the ballots and (in turn) earn a place in the Hall.

The electorate, of course, isn’t composed of a static number. Some voters choose not to cast a ballot and others fail to meet the requirements of voting. Still other members receive their Hall of Fame ballots for the first time. In the end, it’s the 75% figure that’s the relevant one, not 330.

As for this year’s returning candidates, the cases for or against them are pretty clear. For a few borderline cases, meanwhile, this year’s voting represents an opportunity to gain the necessary momentum to receive induction at a later date. Of the 15 returning candidates, there are six pitchers, five outfielders, and four infielders. Let’s start with the outfielders.

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Once again, we find ourselves approaching the Hall of Fame debate season. As has been the case over the past few years, a collection of strong candidates returns to the ballot after having received the minimum 5% of votes required to remain. Those holdovers will be fighting against a new class headed by Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Ivan Rodriguez. As usual, there are a host of other, newer candidates unlikely to see a second vote. Last year, Jim Edmonds fell off the ballot in his first try to reach the minimum threshold. Unlike last year, however, this year’s most deserving candidates are all likely to remain eligible going forward.

This year’s list is awash with hitters; the only newcomers on the ballot who made their living on the mound are Arthur Rhodes and Tim Wakefield. Before getting to the better candidates, let’s take a quick look at the players who failed to reach the 30 WAR mark over the course of their careers. These players aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination. All of them played at least 10 years in the majors. That said, their careers aren’t worthy of serious consideration for the Hall of Fame. The numbers below include career WAR, HOF points and HOF Rating. An explanation of the latter two metrics can be found here. Briefly put, however, the numbers represent an attempt (like Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system) to account simultaneously for a player’s peak and overall production.

I haven’t bothered to include the Points and Rating scores that generally serve as the thresholds for entry into the Hall of Fame — I’ll do that below. What’s relevant for now is that none of the players listed here approach those thresholds. Again: all great players, just unlikely Hall of Famers.

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Every year, the Hall of Fame ballot and subsequent results general considerable attention — as they probably should. The writers have the first opportunity to decide who will enter the Hall, and they generally admit the best players. But the BBWAA alone doesn’t have a say. Of the 247 players enshrined in the Hall of Fame, the writers have selected only 116 in the traditional fashion we see today. Another 45 gained entry through special Old Timers and Negro Leagues votes. Three players were selected in a runoff procedure that used to be performed if no player was elected. Both Lou Gehrig and Roberto Clemente were elected in special votes.

That leaves 80 players who were selected via the so-called Veteran’s Committee. That committee has changed its rules over the years and is now known as the Eras Committee. This year, five players are up for election: Harold Baines, Albert Belle, Will Clark, Mark McGwire, and Orel Hershiser.

From 1953 through 2001, the Veteran’s Committee selected 77 players for the Hall of Fame, averaging a player and a half per year. The committee’s selections, however, were accompanied by complaints that the elections diluted the Hall, ultimately accepting too many players. The Hall responded by creating tougher standards for election through the Veteran’s Committee and, over the last 15 years, only three players were inducted by that means: Joe Gordon, Ron Santo, and Deacon White. While those tougher standards might have been necessary in the short term, the freeze made it very hard for players to gain entry, delaying Santo’s election, for example, until after his death. More changes have been made over the past few years, in part to deal with changes made to the Hall of Fame ballot limiting the number of years for which a player can appear on the writers’ ballot.

There are currently four eras, per the Hall’s definition: Today’s Game (1988-present), Modern Baseball (1970-1987), Golden Days (1950-1969), and Early Baseball (1871-1949). Candidates for Today’s Game will be considered this year (2016) and in another two years (2018); candidates for Modern Baseball will be considered next year (2017) and again in two years following that (2019); candidates for the other two, older eras will be considered in four years (2020). If the current iteration holds up longer than that, the plan is to consider the two more recent eras twice in five years, with the Golden Days considered once every five years and the Early Baseball considered once every 10 years.

This year’s committee, consisting of 16 writers, executives and Hall of Famers, is considering 10 candidates who need at least 75% of the vote and members can vote for up to four candidates. That last rule could make it difficult for the players, however, because of the five other names that appear on the ballot and which belong to a collection of non-players. Here are the names of those managers and executives: Davey Johnson, Lou Piniella, Bud Selig, George Steinbrenner, John Schuerholz.

As for the players, we have four Hall of Very Good-type players and one Hall of Fame-caliber player who has admitted to PED use.

Harold Baines

Harold Baines played 22 years in the majors and compiled 2,866 hits and 384 homers. Only 15 players in Major League Baseball history have recorded greater figures than Baines in both of those categories, and the only ones not in the Hall of Fame have either never been eligible for election (Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Beltre) or have other issues clouding their candidacies (Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro). The same is true for 38 players who rank ahead of Baines in hits. Baines was a good hitter throughout his career, but he stopped playing regularly in the field after age 27, and spent his time at designated hitter thereafter.

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