On Tuesday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. Yesterday, I did the same for the players taken on day two. Let’s take a look at what my math says about the players taken on the third and final day of the draft.

Below, you’ll find some quick thoughts on KATOH’s top-five hitters and top-five pitchers selected in rounds 11-40. Below that, you’ll find by a giant, sortable table with projections for all drafted players for whom I have projections. As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in a Division 1 conference. I do not have projections for JuCo or high-school players. Note: WAR figures are projected totals for the relevant player’s first six years in the majors.

Darren McCaughan, RHP, Seattle, 2.3 WAR

McCaughan allowed just 20 walks across 120 innings with Long Beach State this season, finishing up with a sparkling 2.50 ERA. He doesn’t rack up the strikeouts like many of the pitchers drafted before him but has three years of strong performance in the Big West to his name.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I published a post projecting the players taken on day one of the draft. Between then and now, an additional 240 players have been selected. Eric Longenhagen considered some notable selections this morning from both the American and National leagues. Let’s take a look at what my math says about some of those players.

Below, you’ll find some quick thoughts on KATOH’s top-eight hitters and top-eight pitchers selected in rounds 3-10. Below that, you’ll find by a giant, sortable table with projections for all drafted players for whom I have projections. As a reminder, I only have projections for college players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced in a Division 1 conference. I do not have projections for JuCo or high-school players. Note: WAR figures are projected totals for the relevant player’s first six years in the majors.

Brian Howard, RHP, Oakland, 2.5 WAR

A senior out of TCU, nothing about Howard’s 2017 performance jumps off the page. He’s been quietly effective over his college career, however, allowing just 10 homers in over 250 innings and posting a 3.52 ERA. KATOH penalizes him for already having turned 22, but loves his 6-foot-9 build. Just a tall pitcher with a strong body of work in a good conference.

Read the rest of this entry »

In addition to calling up stud center-field prospect Lewis Brinson, Milwaukee also recently summoned talented lefty and KATOH crush Josh Hader. Although Hader’s worked primarily as starter in the minors, the Brewers plan to use him out of the bullpen for the time being. A 19th-round pick out of high school, Hader’s been exceeding expectations for years. He owns a 3.87 FIP and 27% strikeout rate in 541 minor-league innings. In 25 starts between Double-A and Triple-A last year, he pitched to a sparkling 3.07 FIP with a 31% strikeout rate.

Things didn’t go as swimmingly for Hader in Triple-A this year, however. He maintained a solid 22% strikeout rate, but matched it with a 14% walk rate and coughed up an uncharacteristic 14 homers in 52 innings. The end result was a 5.37 ERA and 4.93 xFIP, which doesn’t exactly scream “big-league ready.”

Still, KATOH remains optimistic. My system projects Hader for 5.0 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method and 5.7 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates scouting rankings. That makes him one of the top 10 pitching prospects in the minors, and a mid-top-100 guy overall.

To put some faces to Hader’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the 6-foot-3 lefty. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis distance between Hader’s Double-A and Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Despite his relative lack of prospect pedigree, Hader’s stuff is almost certainly of big-league quality. The lefty’s fastball averaged over 94 mph in his debut, and both his slider and changeup project to plus according to Eric Longenhagen. However, scouts have long contended that Hader profiles best as a reliever. To wit:

• Eric Longenhagen, 2017: “Those who consider him a reliever cite the rarity of a delivery like this in starting rotations across baseball, the potential platoon issues Hader might face as a low-slot lefty, and his fringey control.”
• Baseball America Prospect Handbook, 2016: “His reliance on his outstanding fastball combined with just ordinary control make him a possible bullpen candidate.”
• Baseball America Prospect Handbook, 2015: “Durability will always be a question because of Hader’s size and how he slings the ball across his body… His reliance on his fastball profiles him better as a reliever.”
• Baseball America Prospect Handbook, 2014: “It’s one of the most unconventional deliveries a starter could use… Scouts see him as a future lefty reliever where his low arm angle will make life difficult for lefthanders.”

Despite the persistent “future reliever” label, Hader dominated for years as a starter in the minors. But when he finally sputtered in Triple-A, the Brewers seemingly decided to try him in the pen. Given his stuff and minor-league performance, I have little doubt that he’ll be a dominant force there.

Three months ago, few would have predicted the Brewers would be atop the National League Central in June, but here we are. The Cardinals, Cubs, and Pirates have all fallen short of preseason expectations, while Milwaukee has surprisingly kept their record above .500. Regardless of what the standings say, Milwaukee’s roster pales in comparison to the Cubs’ and Cardinals’ on paper, which is why we give the Brewers a mere 3% chance of winning the division.

Milwaukee’s team just got a bit better, however, as they’ve called up top prospect Lewis Brinson to play some outfield. Brinson was having a fine season in Triple-A, slashing .312/.397/.503. He’s hit very well for a center fielder — and exceptionally well for a good defensive center fielder who’s only 23.

Brinson’s come a long way since his early days as a professional, especially in the strikeout department. He struck out an alarming 38% of the time in Low-A back in 2013, but has hacked several percentage points off that mark since. His 22% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year is still a bit high, but not alarmingly so. He’s made this improvement without giving up much in other categories, either. His 20 extra-base hits, seven steals, healthy walk rate, and center-field defense more than outweigh the remaining strikeout risk.

Read the rest of this entry »

The draft is right around the corner, and KATOH’s here with some content. Today, I give you projections for the top-250 draft-eligible college players. This list considers all Division 1 players who logged at least 100 plate appearances or batters faced this season. These projections don’t just incorporate this year’s data, but also consider performances from 2016, 2015, and last summer’s Cape Cod League. I consider this to be a vast improvement over the work on amateur prospects I’ve done in the past.

I derived these projections using a methodology similar to the one I use for minor leaguers. I ran a series of probit regression analyses on historical data to determine the likelihood that a player will reach a variety of WAR thresholds (Playing in MLB, >0.5 WAR, >1 WAR, >2 WAR, etc.) through age 28. The resulting probabilities were used to generate a point estimate for each player’s WAR through age 28. The projections take into account performance, conference, age and height. They also account for defensive position for hitters and batters faced per game for pitchers. All of these factors are weighted accordingly based on the major-league careers of historical college players.

There are thousands of Division 1 baseball players, and the data is often unruly and prone to inaccuracies. Furthermore, determining who’s draft-eligible is often tricky, as birthdays and high-school graduation years are sometimes hard to track down. A bunch of front offices didn’t realize T.J. Friedl was eligible for the draft last year, so this isn’t just a me problem. All of this is to say that I can’t be 100% sure nobody was left off erroneously, so feel free to ask if your favorite college prospect isn’t listed.

I will provide further analysis on many of these players once we know where they end up, so check back next week. One quick observation: there’s been much debate over whether Louisville’s Brendan McKay should be selected as a pitcher or a hitter. KATOH sides strongly with Team Pitcher, as it ranks him No. 1 among college players as a pitcher and No. 191 as a first baseman. However, since he’s primarily focused on pitching to date, I suppose one could argue he has more development left than your typical 21-year-old hitter with his numbers.

Read the rest of this entry »

With nearly two months of games in the books, I’m taking another look at the pitching prospects who have most improved their KATOH+ projections since the preseason. To ensure I am writing up actual prospects rather than fringey ones, I’ve set a minimum KATOH+ projection of 3.0 WAR and listed the five most-improved lesser prospects at the bottom. I did not include guys who are injured or who have graduated to the big leagues. A reminder: a player’s KATOH forecast denotes his projected WAR total over the first six seasons of his major-league career.

Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 5.7
Current KATOH+ Projection: 7.5

Honeywell has dominated while splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A this year. He’s struck out 30% of opposing hitters and walked less than 5%. The results haven’t quite been there in Triple-A, as evidenced by his 4.93 ERA, but his 2.89 xFIP explains KATOH’s admiration. He’s become one of baseball’s very best pitching prospects.

Read the rest of this entry »

With nearly two months of games in the books, I’m taking another look at the hitting prospects who have most improved their KATOH+ projections since the preseason. To ensure I am writing up actual prospects rather than fringey ones, I’ve set a minimum KATOH+ projection of 3.0 WAR and listed the five most-improved lesser prospects at the bottom. I did not include guys who are injured or who have graduated to the big leagues. A reminder: a player’s KATOH forecast denotes his projected WAR total over the first six seasons of his major-league career.

Jesus Sanchez, OF, Tampa (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 0.5
Current KATOH+ Projection: 5.8

Sanchez appeared on the two previous iterations of this exercise and continues to perform as a teenager in Low-A. He’s hit for an impressive amount of power and has also been making more contact of late. As of this writing, he’s struck out just four times over his last 10 games. The combination of contact, power, and youth will win over KATOH in a hurry.

Read the rest of this entry »

In something of a surprise move, the Blue Jays summoned top prospect Anthony Alford to the big leagues on Friday. The move is a surprise not because Alford lacks talent, but because he’s played a mere 33 games above A-ball, all of which came this season with the Jays’ Double-A affiliate. Alford has performed exceptionally well this season, slashing .325/.411/.455. But he was overmatched by low-minors pitching as recently as last season, when he struck out 29% of the time and could only muster a .236/.344/.378 batting line at High-A.

Alford cut his strikeout rate by over 12 percentage points (from 29% to 17%) this year while maintaining his robust walk totals and modest power. The result has been substantially better offensive numbers. This is an encouraging development, especially since Alford’s so much more than his offense. He’s a 70 runner per Eric Longenhagen, which makes him a no-doubt center fielder and a threat on the bases.

Read the rest of this entry »

A couple of weeks ago, I looked at the 10 pitching prospects who had most improved their KATOH+ projections over the season’s first few weeks. Now that we have a more meaningful sample of games to analyze and a new Baseball America top-100 list baked in, I’m repeating that exercise. It’s still early in the season, but not too early to start identifying players who are performing better than they have in the past. A reminder: a player’s KATOH forecast denotes his projected WAR total over the first six seasons of his major-league career. I performed a similar exercise for hitters yesterday.

To ensure I am writing up actual prospects rather than fringey ones, I set a minimum KATOH+ projection of 4.0 WAR this time around. I still listed the five most-improved lesser prospects at the bottom.

Luiz Gohara, LHP, Atlanta (Profile)
Preseason KATOH+ Projection: 2.9
Current KATOH+ Projection: 5.6

Gohara was utterly filthy in High-A this year. He struck out 27%, walked 7%, and didn’t concede a single homer over seven starts, likely due to his 57% ground-ball rate. That performance earned him a promotion to Double-A. Unfortunately, he injured his arm in his first start.

Read the rest of this entry »

The reigning American League champion Cleveland Indians haven’t been quite as dominant so far in 2017 as last year. Lackluster production from their outfielders has been a big culprit. Michael Brantley is seemingly healthy and productive once again, but there’s been a void beyond him. Abraham Almonte, Brandon Guyer, and Austin Jackson have been varying degrees of unremarkable in limited playing time and have all found their way to the 10-day DL. Minor-league journeyman Daniel Robertson has been playing right field this week, while Lonnie Chisenhall has started 18 games in center this season.

The Indians were desperate for outfield help, and luckily they had an impact player waiting in the wings in the form of top prospect Bradley Zimmer. Zimmer has mashed Triple-A pitching this year to the tune of .294/.371/.532 and has stolen nine bases. Zimmer is a 6-foot-5 power hitter who also happens to be a speedy center fielder, which means Chisenhall can return to a corner where he belongs. Zimmer has also posted double-digit walk rates at most levels of the minors, which gives him yet another way to provide value. Very few prospects can get on base, hit for power, and play good defense at a premium position, making Zimmer a rare bird. On the downside, however, Zimmer has some serious contact issues that threaten to eat away at his offensive value. He struck out at a high-but-acceptable 30% clip this year, but was up over 37% in his first crack at Triple-A last year, when he hit .242 without any power.

Read the rest of this entry »